Table 5.
Result of scenario analyses on incremental cost effectiveness ratio (£/quality adjusted life year, QALY) for those risk groups that had an incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) <100 000 per QALY in base case for epidemiological year 2012-13
| Variables | Any risk group | Chronic respiratory disease | Chronic liver disease | Immunocompromised | Infected with HIV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | 183 680 | 90 243 | 20 324 | 90 720 | 61 239 |
| No herd effects due to any serotypes in 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine* | 37 687 | 18 061 | 2848 | 20 059 | 10 059 |
| No herd effects due to six additional serotypes in 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine† | 46 903 | 22 715 | 3529 | 25 259 | 12 404 |
| No herd effects due to serotypes 1 and 5† | 74 882 | 36 122 | 6496 | 41 115 | 25 181 |
| Herd effect of infant 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine delayed by two years | 128 603 | 63 257 | 13 369 | 63 301 | 39 452 |
| Vaccine price 25% reduced | 143 564 | 70 390 | 15 772 | 70 720 | 47 342 |
| Vaccine price 25% reduced and no administration costs | 119 021 | 58 244 | 12 987 | 58 484 | 38 840 |
| No waning immunity | 141 999 | 69 927 | 17 013 | 65 107 | 45 181 |
| No discounting | 120 495 | 60 164 | 11 570 | 59 730 | 34 484 |
| Life expectancy of normal population | 163 070 | 79 937 | 18 446 | 81 036 | 50 331 |
| Double vaccine dose | 308 886 | 153 053 | 34 429 | 143 581 | 97 066 |
| 15% higher incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease | 159 550 | 78 302 | 17 586 | 78 691 | 52 880 |
| Assuming 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine to be effective against serotype 3 | 150 326 | 73 331 | 17 620 | 74 099 | 54 099 |
*No further reduction as from 2009-10 for all serotypes included in 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine.
†20% less herd effects could be achieved when serotypes 1 and 5 were not assumed to provide herd protection and 80% less herd effects could be achieved when six additional serotypes included in 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine would not provide any herd effect compared with maximum herd effect (for example, total eradication of all serotypes included in 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine) calculated by using specific incidence data on serotype for 2009-10 and projecting forward.