. 2013 Mar 9;381(9869):805–816. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61963-1

Table 3.

Event rate ratios (95% CIs) in ER-positive disease, by time period from diagnosis

	A: effects in meta-analyses of the trials of 5 years of tamoxifen vs none¹(n=10 645)	B: effects in the ATLAS trial of continuing tamoxifen to 10 years vs stopping at 5 years (n=6846)	C: estimated effects in a trial of 10 years of tamoxifen vs none (product of A and B)
Recurrence
0–4 years	0·53 (0·48–0·57)^*	1	0·53 (0·48–0·57)^*
5–9 years	0·68 (0·60–0·78)^*	0·90 (0·79–1·02)	0·61 (0·51–0·73)^*
≥10 years	0·94 (0·79–1·12)	0·75 (0·62–0·90)^†	0·70 (0·54–0·91)^†
Breast cancer mortality
0–4 years	0·71 (0·62–0·80)^*	1	0·71 (0·62–0·80)^*
5–9 years	0·66 (0·58–0·75)^*	0·97 (0·79–1·18)	0·64 (0·50–0·82)^‡
≥10 years	0·73 (0·62–0·86)^‡	0·71 (0·58–0·88)^§	0·52 (0·40–0·68)^*

(A) Trials of 5 years of tamoxifen (n=10 645; ∼80% complied). (B) ATLAS trial of 10 years vs 5 years of tamoxifen (n=6846; ∼80% difference in tamoxifen use [figure 2]). (C) Hypothetical trial of 10 years of tamoxifen vs none (with ∼80% compliance). Two-sided p values in this table relate to particular time periods; values elsewhere combine all time periods. ER=oestrogen receptor.

p<0·00001.

^†

p<0·01.

^‡

p=0·0001.

^§

p=0·0016.