Abstract
Objective
To examine the impact of variation in state laws governing traffic safety on motor vehicle fatalities.
Study Design
Repeated cross sectional time series design.
Methods
Fixed effects regression models estimate the relationship between state motor vehicle fatality rates and the strength of the state law environment for 50 states, 1980–2010. The strength of the state policy environment is measured by calculating the proportion of a set of 27 evidence-based laws in place each year. The effect of alcohol consumption on motor vehicle fatalities is estimated using a subset of alcohol laws as instrumental variables.
Results
Once other risk factors are controlled in statistical models, states with stronger regulation of safer driving and driver/passenger protections had significantly lower motor vehicle fatality rates for all ages. Alcohol consumption was strongly associated with higher MVC death rates, as were state unemployment rates.
Conclusions
Encouraging laggard states to adopt the full range of available laws could significantly reduce preventable traffic-related deaths in the U.S. – especially those among younger individuals. Estimating the relationship between different policy environments and health outcomes can quantify the result of policy gaps.
Keywords: traffic fatalities, alcohol policies, traffic polices
Introduction
Traffic fatalities are a major cause of death in the United States, the second greatest contributor to years of life lost before age 75, and a leading cause of death in the first three decades of life.1 Over the last three decades, deaths resulting from motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) have declined by nearly 35%.2 Nevertheless, in 2011, there were 32,367 traffic-related deaths and mortality rates varied five-fold among states. About a third of these deaths occurred among people aged 25 years and younger.3 Alcohol has been involved in about a third of fatal collisions nationwide since 1994, currently ranging from about 16% in Utah to 48% in Hawaii.3
Each state is responsible for establishing driving and alcohol laws. The federal government encourages laws by either withholding funding for the state if a particular law is not passed or providing an opportunity for additional funding if passed. Federal legislation in 1984 prompted all 50 states to adopt laws that defined the legal age for possession and purchase of alcohol at 21 years of age by 1988, along with other provisions aimed at reducing alcohol consumption and drunk driving among teens.4 In addition, the federal government conditioned national highway funding on states’ adoption of the zero tolerance law for younger drivers in 1995 and the 0.08 BAC limit for adults in 2000, which led to all states’ adoption of these laws. Beyond these provisions, however, the majority of laws geared toward reducing traffic fatalities have been enacted at the state level. Indeed, considerable variation in state speed limits followed the 1995 federal repeal of the 55 MPH national speed limit.
Extensive scholarship has demonstrated the effectiveness of laws requiring safety belt use,5 properly restraining infants, toddlers, and older children,6–8 rear seating mandates for children,7, 9 graduated driver’s licenses,10, 11 lower speed limits,12, 13 penalties for cellphone use while driving14, 15, defining acceptable blood alcohol content limits for drivers at 0.08 or lower;16 restrictions on possessing and serving alcohol in bars and restaurants 17; alcohol sales regulations including minimum legal drinking age laws;18–20 fines and jail sentences for alcohol-impaired driving;21 and zero-tolerance laws (lower legal blood alcohol content limits) for younger drivers.16, 22, 23 Strong enforcement provisions, such as the primary enforcement of seat belt laws, may also contribute to larger reductions in motor vehicle deaths.24, 25 Such evidence led the U.S. Task Force on Community Preventive Services to recommend adoption of these laws.26
Despite this evidence, sizeable differences among states in the number of laws they have enacted remain. Assessing this variation presents a number of methodological challenges. First, data regarding the features of laws and their enforcement are often incomplete, limiting the capacity of researchers to adequately measure the regulatory environment and, most especially, to understand the impact of changes in this environment over longer time frames. Although organizations such as the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) periodically survey the extent of each state’s adoption of the available traffic and alcohol laws, these data are generally available for only a short time period for only a subset of laws, and/or for only a selected number of states.
Using indices or scales of existing policies is one way to capture variation in the strength of the regulatory environment. Scales measuring the strength of national tobacco 27 and alcohol policies28, 29, have been used to rank Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member country approaches to addressing these commodities. A small number of scholars have assessed the relationship between variation in a set of alcohol policies and alcohol-related outcomes in Europe 30 and in the U.S., but these efforts are still nascent 31, 32 To date, there is no single index measuring all traffic related policies. Most studies have captured only a subset of state regulations that may be at play on the road, focusing primarily on either laws related to drinking and driving or laws related to occupant and passenger safety 33. As a result, the net effects of this extensive policy variation have not been fully evaluated.
An additional barrier to studying the effects of multiple laws on traffic fatalities involves endogeneity biases resulting from the need to control for variables (such as alcohol consumption) that may lead to higher death rates, but that may also be the objects of legislative action. Typically, researchers have used state-level or regional fixed effects in regression models to control for heterogeneity between states in alcohol consumed34, 35, but these methods do not account for endogeneity and can provide biased estimates of the effects of alcohol related laws.
This study addresses these gaps by: 1) developing a measure of the overall state regulatory approach to traffic fatality prevention; 2) quantifying the net effects of both traffic and alcohol control policies on traffic fatalities over the past 30 years; and 3) using an instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity biases.
Study data
The study uses data on 27 alcohol and traffic related evidence-based laws whose presence or absence has been investigated in all 50 states from 1980–2010. Laws included met the following criteria: 1) it was specifically aimed at changing individual behaviors 2) there was evidence regarding their effectiveness in improving health outcomes in the peer-reviewed literature; and 3) data for enactment of the law could be found for all states and years.
The dataset was constructed by retrieving, validating, standardizing, coding, and merging existing data on selected laws from publicly available data sources.36–39 Published studies were used as reliable data sources only if the authors described how the statutes were located and listed their effective date. Original legal research was conducted to locate data missing from the published studies for certain states and years, and to retrieve data regarding child restraint laws.40 For a small amount (less than 5%) of missing law data (such as one missing year of data for a state), linear interpolation methods were used to provide values for missing data points. All laws were coded as binary variables for their presence or absence in each state in each year. When this process involved adapting existing data sources, a conservative estimation of the strength of state laws was used. For example, the IIHS evaluates the quality of graduated drivers’ license regulations on a scale from 0 (no law), 1(marginal), 2(fair), and 3 (good). For these laws, states were counted as having the law only when they receive a score of 3 41. State speed limits on urban interstates are operationalized as less than or greater than or equal to 60 miles per hour for each year.42, 43 Table 1 identifies the laws included in the study, their definition and data source.
Table 1.
Health domain | State law | Data source |
---|---|---|
Alcohol regulations (included as instrumental variables for alcohol consumption |
|
28, 32, 41, 50, 51 |
Alcohol-impaired driving, (included in state policy adoption scores) |
|
27–30, 32, 52–54 |
Risky/distracted driving (included in state policy adoption scores) |
|
|
Driver protection/seatbelt regulations (included in state policy adoption scores) |
|
|
Child passenger safety regulations (included in state policy adoption scores) |
|
|
Other regulations (included in state policy adoption scores) |
|
Note: This list of laws is not exhaustive. It contains only laws for which there is some indication of effectiveness and impact on health outcomes and for which data are publicly available for all states and years.
Numerators for traffic fatalities come from the U.S. Fatality Analysis Reporting System, a census of all motor vehicle crashes that result in the death of the driver or at least one occupant.2 The denominators, 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), obtained from the NHTSA, capture the changing risk of motor vehicle collisions since it gives a yearly measure of the amount of driving in any given state and year.44
Methods
This study uses a repeated cross sectional time series design and a fixed effects specification to analyze panel data, and employs instrumental variable techniques to estimate endogenous regressors.45 Three outcomes are assessed: the yearly state MVC fatality rate for all ages, for those under 25 years, and for those aged 25 and over. The fixed effects approach allows states to begin the time series with different laws and risk factors, and tests the relationship between each subsequent law change and resulting yearly changes in fatality rates, allowing each state to serve as its own control. The fixed effects control for unobserved (and unobservable) state characteristics such as geographical and cultural differences that do not change over time.
To capture the myriad state laws related to reducing MVC deaths, a total policy adoption score was constructed that reflects the proportion of the 27 driving safety and occupant protection laws or specific enforcement provisions a state has adopted in any given year (see table 1). The policy adoption score is lagged by one year (to reflect the time between adoption and implementation and to reduce simultaneity biases) and divided into quartiles with the lowest quartile as the reference group. Thus, the measure captures the relative strength of a state’s law environment versus other states and allows for changes over time. Due to the law adoption score time lags, models exclude 1980, but include all years from 1981–2010, leading to a total sample size of 1450 observations (50 states X 29 years).
Several state characteristics associated with traffic fatalities are used as control variables. These include Census Bureau measures of state socioeconomic levels (percent of the state’s population living in poverty), the percent of the state population that is unemployed (several studies have demonstrated a direct relationship with the motor vehicle fatality rate 35, 46, 47) the percent of the population aged 15–24 (those at highest risk of traffic-related death), population density (population per square mile), and the per capita miles of highway for each state in each year.48 Models contain yearly state tax revenues per capita adjusted for inflation (in 1980 constant dollars) as a proxy measure of state capacity to undertake regulation and enforcement activities.49 All models include a variable representing years and a year-squared term to account for nonlinear trends. Finally, gallons of ethanol (drinking alcohol) purchased per capita are included for each year in each state.50
The first four laws listed in table 1 are designed to affect alcohol consumption. Because these laws can only affect motor vehicle fatalities via alcohol consumption (the tax on beer, the 21 year old minimum legal drinking age, Sunday sales restrictions, and beer keg registration laws) they are used as instrumental variables (IVs) to estimate it.20, 22, 51–56 The resulting “instrumented” alcohol consumption measure is included in the final statistical model estimating MVC death rates. All four IVs are consistently negatively associated with alcohol consumption and together explain nearly a third of within state variation in alcohol consumption over time (see appendix). Tests for under-identification (Anderson LR test) and over-identification (Hansen’s J statistic) indicate the appropriateness of the four laws as IVs.57
Appendix.
Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Log beer tax rate (cents) | −0.385*** (−0.426, −0.343) | −0.315*** (−0.354−0.276) | −0.317*** (−0.356, −0.278) | −0.301*** (−0.341, −0.262) |
Minimum legal drinking age (yearly increments above 18) | −0.152*** (−0.170, −0.135) | −0.153*** (−0.166, −0.130) | −0.148*** (−0.166, −0.130) | |
Sunday alcohol sales ban | −0.082** (−0.161, −0.003) | −0.103** (−0.182, −0.023) | ||
Keg registration legislation | −0.065*** (−0.098, −0.032) | |||
Constant | 1.762*** (1.690, 1.834) | 2.306*** (2.213, 2.397) | 2.336*** (2.239, 2.432) | 2.372*** (2.274, 2.469) |
R2 | 0.1811 | 0.3095 | 0.3114 | 0.3181 |
N | 1450 | 1450 | 1450 | 1450 |
Coefficients from fixed effects panel regression models. Confidence intervals in parentheses.
statistically significant difference (p<0.01);
statistically significant difference (p<0.001) compared to previous period.
Several specifications assure the analysis is robust to other potential biases. First, the series of equations is estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), which allows for more efficient estimates (lower risk of a type two error) than standard two stage least squares approaches to panel IV models. Second, results are presented using robust standard errors which are resistant to heteroskedasticity that could occur from correlated error terms due to, for example, short-term regional similarities not captured in the fixed effects. All statistical analyses were performed using STATA 12.1.58
Results
As shown in Figure 1, fatality rates from motor vehicle crashes declined during the study period. However, the rate of decline slowed between the mid-1990s and 2007 until dropping steeply in 2008. Further, the proportion of deaths of those under 25 years of age declined sharply in the 1980’s, but has remained fairly steady at about 30% since the late 1990s. The portion of all traffic fatalities that involved alcohol exhibited a similar trend to deaths under age 25. Over this same period, the total number of laws that states have adopted has steadily increased, although the gap between the states with the highest and the lowest policy adoption scores has widened.
Table 2 presents mean values and standard deviations for policy adoption scores and covariates at decade intervals. The average state score grew significantly over time, increasing from 7.65 in 1980 to 58.99 in 2010, reflecting increasing law adoption within all states. However, the gap between states with higher and lower scores also grew, as demonstrated by the increase in the standard deviation of the total policy adoption score and the increase in the gap between the highest and lowest score quartiles, which grew from a difference of about 8% in 1980 to about 30% in 2010.
Table 2.
1980 | 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | sd | Mean | sd | Mean | sd | Mean | sd | |
| ||||||||
Total Policy adoption score (0–100) | 7.65 | 4.32 | 33.67*** | 6.45 | 43.68*** | 7.16 | 58.99*** | 10.46 |
| ||||||||
Min legal drinking age =21 (# states) | 14 | - | 50*** | - | 50 | - | 50 | - |
Beer keg registration (# states) | 1 | 5** | 15** | 31*** | ||||
Sunday ban on alcohol sales (# states) | 20 | - | 20 | - | 20 | - | 14** | - |
Beer tax (cents) | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.24* | 0.20 | 0.25* | 0.20 | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| ||||||||
Alcohol consumption, gallons per capita | 2.81 | 0.80 | 2.47*** | 0.57 | 2.25*** | 0.45 | 2.52*** | 0.47 |
| ||||||||
Poverty (%) | 13.16 | 4.12 | 13.13 | 4.16 | 10.78*** | 2.92 | 14.19*** | 3.32 |
| ||||||||
Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.48 | 1.86 | - | - | 3.90*** | 0.94 | 8.84*** | 2.04 |
| ||||||||
Pop density (population/mile2) | 152.13 | 217.47 | 163.78*** | 228.63 | 179.09*** | 246.11 | 194.95*** | 261.05 |
| ||||||||
Population 15–24 (%) | 19.18 | 0.95 | 14.77*** | 0.99 | 14.39* | 1.31 | 14.09 | 0.87 |
| ||||||||
Miles road per capita | 30.87 | 31.26 | 27.19*** | 26.97 | 24.43** | 26.01 | 22.99*** | 24.31 |
| ||||||||
Tax revenues per capita | 655.21 | 471.41 | 768.15*** | 241.70 | 922.19*** | 192.63 | 978.59 | 381.17 |
| ||||||||
Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) | 30351 | 29986 | 42481*** | 45019 | 54926*** | 56202 | 59258*** | 60388 |
| ||||||||
Under 25 death rate (per 100 million VMT) | 1.67 | 0.33 | 0.81*** | 0.19 | 0.53*** | 0.16 | 0.31*** | 0.14 |
Over 25 death rate (per 100 million VMT) | 1.87 | 0.50 | 1.34*** | 0.32 | 1.07*** | 0.28 | 0.83*** | 0.27 |
Total death rate (per 100 million VMT) | 3.54 | 0.78 | 2.15*** | 0.49 | 1.60*** | 0.43 | 1.13*** | 0.37 |
statistically significant difference (p<0.05);
statistically significant difference (p<0.01);
statistically significant difference (p<0.001) compared to previous period.
The total policy adoption score is the proportion of all laws (except those in the alcohol law domain) listed in the table that each state has in place each year.
The proportion of states adopting the laws did not consistently increase over time. While only 14 states in 1980 had a minimum legal drinking age of 21, all 50 states had raised their drinking age by 1990, prompted by federal action. However, between 2000 and 2010, the number of states with bans on Sunday alcohol sales fell from 20 to 14 as states repealed these laws.
Population density grew steadily over time, while the miles of road per capita and the percentage of younger drivers in the population declined. State poverty rates remained fairly steady. Ethanol alcohol consumption declined from about 2.81 gallons per capita in 1980 to about 2.52 gallons per capita in 2010. Alcohol consumption also varied substantially by state. In 2010, 3.34 gallons of ethanol alcohol were consumed on average by every resident over the age of 14 in Nevada, compared to 1.46 gallons in Utah.
Figure 2 depicts gaps and differences among states in policy scores, motor vehicle fatality rates, and alcohol consumption at four points in time over the study period. States in the highest policy quartile in 1980 were not necessarily in the highest quartile in 2010. In 1980, 3 states (HI, LA, TN) had the largest number of evidence-based laws. By 2010, only one of these (TN) joined an additional 11 states (AL, AK, CA, CO, GA, KS, ME, NJ, RI, WA, WI) in the top quartile. The second panel of this figure displays the geographical distribution of the overall decrease of deaths in MVC. Some states with higher rates of deaths in 1980 continue to have higher rates in 2010 when compared to the other states, as in the case of MT. The third panel of figure 2 shows alcohol consumption in states by quartiles. Medians for these quartiles ranged from 2.14 gallons in quartile 1 to 4.54 gallons in quartile 4. Noteworthy is the overall increase in alcohol consumption in 2010 after a steady decline from 1980 to 2000.
In Table 3, models 1–3 show the relationship between the total policy adoption score and state traffic fatality rates by age group. As can be seen in model 1, there is a dose-response relationship between the strength of the state policy adoption scores and the magnitude of its negative association with the overall MVC fatality rate, after controlling for other state characteristics and population factors. Alcohol consumption was positively associated with MVC fatality rates. The results of the IV tests (in all three models) indicate that the IVs were not under-identified (null hypothesis is rejected) nor over-identified and can be considered valid.
Table 3.
Model 1: Total MVC fatality rate | Model 2: MVC fatality rate (under 25 years) | Model 3: MVC fatality rate (25 years and older) | |
---|---|---|---|
Law adoption score Q2 (versus Q1-lowest) | −0.045* -(0.088, −0.001) | −0.026** (−0.046, −0.006) | −0.019 (−0.047, 0.010) |
Law adoption score Q3 | −0.134*** (−0.193, −0.074) | −0.06*** (−0.090, −0.029) | −0.073*** (−0.111, −0.036) |
Law adoption score Q4 (highest) | −0.145*** (−0.228, −0.061) | −0.062** (−0.102, −0.023) | −0.073** (−0.124, −0.023) |
Alcohol consumption (gallons, per capita) | 0.683* (0.058, 1.308) | 0.185 (−0.110, 0.480) | 0.449* (0.092, 0.807) |
Percent poverty (%) | 0.002 (−0.012, 0.0015) | 0 (−0.006, 0.006) | 0 (−0.008, 0.009) |
Unemployment Rate (%) | −0.038*** (−0.055, −0.020) | −0.018*** (−0.027, −0.010) | −0.021*** (−0.031, −0.010) |
Population density (per square mile) | 0.005*** (0.003, 0.007) | 0.003*** (0.002, 0.004) | 0.002** (0.001, 0.004) |
Population aged 15–24 (%) | 0.055** (0.014, 0.095) | 0.047*** (0.028, 0.067) | 0.011 (−0.012, 0.033) |
N | 1450 | 1450 | 1450 |
p<0.05;
p<0.01;
p<0.001
Table includes regression coefficients and their 95% confidence intervals in parentheses. Models estimated using two-stage General Method of Moments (GMM). Alcohol consumption is treated as endogenous and instrumented using law variables (Sunday ban, log beer tax, minimum legal drinking age, keg registration). Models additionally control for time, time2, miles road per capita and taxes per capita. Policy adoption scores are lagged 1 year.
When fatality rates are restricted to those under 25 years of age (model 2), the relationship between policy adoption scores and state traffic fatality rates persists, albeit with a slightly smaller magnitude. Alcohol consumption, however, is no longer independently associated with MVC fatality rate among this age group. When the fatality rates are restricted to those 25 years and over (model 3), there is a negative-dose relationship to higher quartiles of state law adoption scores. The instrumented variable for alcohol consumption is positively associated with higher state fatality rates for those over 25 years, holding policy adoption scores and other factors constant.
Unemployment rates are strongly negatively associated with state motor vehicle fatality rates for all age groups, as expected. Unsurprisingly, population density is positively associated with MVC fatality rates in all age groups, but the magnitude is small. As expected, the proportion of the population aged 15–24 is positively associated with MVC death rate for the whole population and for those under 25, but not among those 25 and over.
Discussion
The number of state traffic safety laws has varied historically, and these differences grew more pronounced between 1980 and 2010, creating very different state law environments across the country. This study advances knowledge in the field by including a broader set of traffic safety laws than have been typically used in previous studies. Measuring differences in these state law environments with policy adoption scores reveals the relative progress states have made towards adopting the fullest protections on the road, highlighting where public health advocates should focus attention. Ongoing surveillance of variation in the full range of state laws, as demonstrated here, is necessary to monitor continued progress in reducing motor vehicle fatalities.
This study also provides evidence of the human cost of these differences in state law environments. While all states have increased the number of laws they have adopted, the results of this study quantify the toll exacted by gaps in state traffic safety policies. Results show that states that adopted a greater number of the evidence-based policies had significantly lower than expected fatality rates for all age groups. Such evidence may aid policymakers and advocates in establishing state agendas for improving traffic safety.
Last, this study demonstrates the utility of an instrumental variable approach to address measurement and estimation problems that previous studies have encountered when adding direct measures of alcohol consumption into analyses of state law effects on motor vehicle fatalities. The findings confirm the importance of alcohol consumption patterns on traffic safety, while addressing measurement and estimation problems of including alcohol consumption directly in studies of traffic safety laws. Although alcohol consumption has fluctuated over the past 30 years, higher alcohol consumption rates are associated with higher state fatality rates for adults over 25 years of age. The use of instrumental variables in this study introduces only the residual alcohol consumption in a state net the four laws used as IVs into the model. Thus the four alcohol laws used as IVs not only reduce alcohol consumption (see appendix), but are also particularly effective in reducing alcohol-related traffic fatalities among those under age 25.20, 22, 41, 51–53, 55, 56. The finding that alcohol consumption, net of the 4 most common alcohol regulations, continues to be a predictor of MVC deaths among those over age 25 suggests the need for additional approaches to reducing alcohol consumption that may lead to impaired driving among this age group.
This study has several limitations. First, policy scores are comprised only of laws with the strongest evidence base, for which data are available, and that varied only in the ways that can be consistently codified for analysis. Other state or local laws that have been shown to be effective (zoning restrictions for alcohol sales59, 60 or height/weight regulations for child car seats61, 62) could not be included here, resulting, possibly, in an underestimation of the effects of policy adoption scores on traffic fatalities. Second, some of these laws, specifically those aimed at restraining children and youth in the car, should have an impact only on fatality rates for those under 25 and their inclusion may result in an overestimation of the association between the strength of the law environment and deaths to those over 25. However, their adoption reflects an important component of the comprehensiveness of the state’s traffic safety approach. Third, policy scores are measured based on the presence or absence of the laws in a given year, without accounting for any exception or exemption from compliance provided in the laws. For instance, the law restricting cell phone use while driving was measured as being present even if there was an exception for those using hands-free devices. Fourth, states differ in their approaches to enforcement which could enhance or impede the effectiveness of otherwise similar laws. Measures of enforcement (e.g. number of sobriety checkpoints, fines collected, jail terms served) are not incorporated in the analysis because these data are not available and may not be consistent over time.63 Alternatives such as arrests for driving while intoxicated could serve as a proxy, but cannot be added into these same models without risking endogeneity bias. Interestingly, one gross measure of state capacity for enforcement, state total tax revenue, was not significant in any of these analyses. Assessing levels of enforcement over all states over this period presents enormous data collection challenges.64 Fifth, the policy adoption score “weighs” all laws equally. While this technique may oversimplify the alcohol and driving law environment, there is currently no standard for rating the importance of one type of law over another (i.e. is it more important to reduce speed limits or to mandate seat belt use?), especially when states have different combinations of laws in place. This is an area for future research.
Conclusion
There are substantial gaps among states in establishing evidence-based laws that reduce traffic fatalities. Such gaps in law adoption signal missed opportunities with substantial consequences. For states with the fewest number of laws in place, emulating states with a more comprehensive alcohol and traffic law approach may hold the potential to save hundreds of lives, reduce injuries, and decrease the considerable economic burden of motor vehicle collisions. In their efforts to reduce traffic fatalities, public health advocates and policymakers should focus attention on states where such protections are weakest to bring them up to speed.
Acknowledgments
D Silver, JY Bae, M Paul and J Macinko received support from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation for this work. D Silver, J Macinko, JY Bae, G Jimenez are currently supported with funds from the National Institutes of Health/NIAAA.
This work was supported by a grant (#67150) from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Public Health Law Research Program and a grant (1R01AA021436-01) from the U.S. National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. James Macinko was also supported by grant (1R21 HD060175-01A1) from the U.S. National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Child Health and Development. The authors have no competing interests that could influence this work. This study uses public use datasets that include no personal identifiers, and does not concern human subjects. The authors thank Christopher Carpenter for thoughtful comments on an earlier draft of the paper, and Joan Kagan, Ashley Mueller and Andrew Tepper for their assistance with preparing data for analysis.
Footnotes
No financial disclosures were reported by the authors of this paper.
Publisher's Disclaimer: This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final citable form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
References and Data Sources
- 1.National Center for Health Statistics. Health, United States, 2010: With Special Feature on Death and Dying. Hyattsville, MD: 2011. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 2.National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) Washington, DC: cited 2013 March; Available from: http://www.nhtsa.gov/FARS. [Google Scholar]
- 3.National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Traffic Safety Facts 2009. Washington DC: U.S. Department of Transportation; 2011. [Google Scholar]
- 4.National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Traffic Safety Facts 2008. Washington DC: U.S. Department of Transportation; 2009. [Google Scholar]
- 5.Dinh-Zarr TB, Sleet DA, Shults RA, Zaza S, Elder RW, Nichols JL, et al. Reviews of evidence regarding interventions to increase the use of safety belts. Am J Prev Med. 2001;21(4, Supplement 1):48–65. doi: 10.1016/S0749-3797(01)00378-6. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 6.Kallan MJ, Durbin DR, Arbogast KB. Seating patterns and corresponding risk of injury among 0- to 3-year-old children in child safety seats. Pediatrics. 2008 May;121(5):e1342–7. doi: 10.1542/peds.2007-1512. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 7.Durbin DR, Chen I, Smith R, Elliott MR, Winston FK. Effects of seating position and appropriate restraint use on the risk of injury to children in motor vehicle crashes. Pediatrics. 2005 Mar;115(3):e305–9. doi: 10.1542/peds.2004-1522. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 8.Elliott MR, Kallan MJ, Durbin DR, Winston FK. Effectiveness of child safety seats vs seat belts in reducing risk for death in children in passenger vehicle crashes. Archives of pediatrics & adolescent medicine. 2006 Jun;160(6):617–21. doi: 10.1001/archpedi.160.6.617. Comparative Study, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov’t. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 9.Viano DC, Parenteau CS. Fatalities of children 0–7 years old in the second row. Traffic Inj Prev. 2008;9(3):231–7. doi: 10.1080/15389580801957671. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 10.Pressley JC, Benedicto CB, Trieu L, Kendig T, Barlow B. Motor vehicle injury, mortality, and hospital charges by strength of graduated driver licensing laws in 36 States. J Trauma. 2009 Jul;67(1 Suppl):S43–53. doi: 10.1097/TA.0b013e3181937f4f. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 11.Dee TS, Grabowski DC, Morrisey MA. Graduated driver licensing and teen traffic fatalities. Journal of Health Economics. 2005;24(3):571–89. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2004.09013. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 12.Baum HM, Wells JK, Lund AK. Motor vehicle crash fatalities in the second year of 65 MPH speed limits. Journal of Safety Research 1990. 1990 Spring;21(1):1–8. [Google Scholar]
- 13.Baum HM, Wells JK, Lund AK. The fatality consequences of the 65 mph speed limits, 1989. Journal of Safety Research 1991. 1991 Winter;22(4):171–7. [Google Scholar]
- 14.Wilson FA, Stimpson JP. Trends in fatalities from distracted driving in the United States, 1999 to 2008. American Journal of Public Health. 2010 Nov;100(11):2213–9. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2009.187179. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 15.Ibrahim JK, Anderson ED, Burris SC, Wagenaar AC. State laws restricting driver use of mobile communications devices distracted-driving provisions, 1992–2010. American Journal of Preventive Medicine. 2011 Jun;40(6):659–65. doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2011.02.024. Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov’t. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 16.Wagenaar A, Maldonado-Molina M, Ma L, Tobler A, Komro K. Effects of Legal BAC Limits on Fatal Crash Involvement. Journal of Safety Research. 2007;38(5):493–9. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2007.06.001. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 17.Dills AK. Social host liability for minors and underage drunk-driving accidents. J Health Econ. 2010 Mar;29(2):241–9. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2009.12.001. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 18.Carpenter C, Dobkin C. The minimum legal drinking age and public health. J Econ Perspect. 2011 Spring;25(2):133–56. doi: 10.1257/jep.25.2.133. Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 19.Hahn RA, Kuzara JL, Elder R, Brewer R, Chattopadhyay S, Fielding J, et al. Effectiveness of policies restricting hours of alcohol sales in preventing excessive alcohol consumption and related harms. American Journal of Preventive Medicine [Review] 2010 Dec;39(6):590–604. doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2010.09.016. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 20.Dee TS. State alcohol policies, teen drinking and traffic fatalities. Journal of Public Economics. 1999;72(2):289–315. doi: 10.1016/S0047-2727(98)00093-0. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
- 21.Wagenaar AC, Maldonado-Molina MM, Erickson DJ, Ma L, Tobler AL, Komro KA. General deterrence effects of US statutory DUI fine and jail penalties: Long-term follow-up in 32 states. Accid Anal Prev [Article] 2007 Sep;39(5):982–94. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2007.01.003. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 22.Voas RB, Tippetts AS, Fell JC. Assessing the effectiveness of minimum legal drinking age and zero tolerance laws in the United States. Accid Anal Prev. 2003 Jul;35(4):579–87. doi: 10.1016/s0001-4575(02)00038-6. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 23.Carpenter C. How do Zero Tolerance Drunk Driving Laws work? J Health Econ. 2004 Jan;23(1):61–83. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2003.08.005. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 24.Durbin DR, Smith R, Kallan MJ, Elliott MR, Winston FK. Seat belt use among 13–15 year olds in primary and secondary enforcement law states. Accid Anal Prev. 2007 May;39(3):524–9. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2006.09.008. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 25.Shults RA, Nichols JL, Dinh-Zarr TB, Sleet DA, Elder RW. Effectiveness of primary enforcement safety belt laws and enhanced enforcement of safety belt laws: A summary of the Guide to Community Preventive Services systematic reviews. Journal of Safety Research. 2004;35(2):189–96. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2004.03002. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 26.Community Preventive Services Task Force. The Guide to Community Preventive Services: The Community Guide. Atlanta, GA: U.S. Department of Health & Human Services; 2012. cited 2013 June 13 Available from: http://www.thecommunityguide.org/mvoi/index.html. [Google Scholar]
- 27.Joossens L, Raw M. The Tobacco Control Scale: a new scale to measure country activity. Tobacco control. 2006 Jun;15(3):247–53. doi: 10.1136/tc.2005.015347. Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov’t. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 28.Brand DA, Saisana M, Rynn LA, Pennoni F, Lowenfels AB. Comparative Analysis of Alcohol Control Policies in 30 Countries. PLoS Medicine. 2007;4(4):0752–9. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0040151. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 29.Karlsson T, Österberg E. Scaling alcohol control policies across Europe. Drugs: Education, Prevention, and Policy. 2007;14(6):499–511. [Google Scholar]
- 30.Paschall MJ, Grube JW, Kypri K. Alcohol control policies and alcohol consumption by youth: a multi-national study. Addiction. 2009 Nov;104(11):1849–55. doi: 10.1111/j.1360-0443.2009.02698.x. Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 31.Fell JC, Fisher DA, Voas RB, Blackman K, Tippetts AS. The relationship of underage drinking laws to reductions in drinking drivers in fatal crashes in the United States. Accid Anal Prev. 2008 Jul;40(4):1430–40. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2008.03.006. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 32.Fell JC, Fisher DA, Voas RB, Blackman K, Tippetts AS. The Impact of Underage Drinking Laws on Alcohol-Related Fatal Crashes of Young Drivers. Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research. 2009;33(7):1208–19. doi: 10.1111/j.1530-0277.2009.00945.x. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 33.Morrisey MA, Grabowski DC. State motor vehicle laws and older drivers. Health Econ. 2005 Apr;14(4):407–19. doi: 10.1002/hec.955. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 34.Mundt MP, French MT. Adolescent alcohol use, sociability and income as a young adult. Appl Econ. 2013 Jan 1;45(23):3329–39. doi: 10.1080/00036846.2012.707773. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 35.Chang K, Wu CC, Ying YH. The effectiveness of alcohol control policies on alcohol-related traffic fatalities in the United States. Accident; analysis and prevention. 2012 Mar;45:406–15. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2011.08.008. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 36.National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Digest of State Alcohol Highway Safety-Related Legislation. 1–20. Washington, DC: 1983–2002. [Google Scholar]
- 37.National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. Blood Alcohol Concentration (BAC) Limits: Adult Operators Noncommercial Motor Vehicles. Alcohol Policy Information System (APIS); Website [cited 2007 November 24]; Available from: http://alcoholpolicy.niaaa.nih.gov/Blood_Alcohol_Concentration_Limits_Adult_Operators_of_Noncommercial_Motor_Vehicles.html. [Google Scholar]
- 38.Insurance Institute for Highway Safety - Highway Loss Data Institute. Motorcycle and Bicycle Helmet Use Laws. Arlington, VA: cited 2013 March; Table]. Available from: http://www.iihs.org/laws/HelmetUseCurrent.aspx. [Google Scholar]
- 39.Insurance Institute for Highway Safety - Highway Loss Data Institute. Safety Belt and Child Restrain Laws. cited 2010 January ; Available from: http://www.iihs.org/laws/SafetyBeltUse.aspx.
- 40.Bae JY, Anderson ED, Silver D, Macinko J. Fifty-state survey of child passenger safety laws in the US, 1980–2010: a public health approach to analyzing legal instruments. Under Review. [Google Scholar]
- 41.Insurance Institute for Highway Safety - Highway Loss Data Institute. Laws and Regulations. updated February 2010; cited 2010 October; Available from: http://www.iihs.org/laws/default.aspx.
- 42.Farmer CM, Retting RA, Lund AK. Effect of 1996 Speed Limit Changes in Motor Vehicle Occupant Fatalities. Arlington, VA: Insurance Institute for Highway Safety; 1997. p. 12. [Google Scholar]
- 43.Wagenaar AC, Streff FM, Schultz RH. Effects of the 65 mph speed limit on injury morbidity and mortality. Accident; analysis and prevention. 1990 Dec;22(6):571–85. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(90)90029-k. Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov’t, Research Support, U.S. Gov’t, Non-P.H.S. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 44.Robertson LS. Injury epidemiology : research and control strategies. 3. New York: Oxford University Press; 2007. [Google Scholar]
- 45.Allison PD. Fixed Effects Regression Models. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications; 2009. [Google Scholar]
- 46.Subbaraman MS, Kerr WC. State panel estimates of the effects of the minimum legal drinking age on alcohol consumption for 1950 to 2002. Alcohol Clin Exp Res. 2013 Jan;37(Suppl 1):E291–6. doi: 10.1111/j.1530-0277.2012.01929.x. Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 47.Traynor TL. The impact of state level behavioral regulations on traffic fatality rates. Journal of Safety Research. 2009;40(6):421–6. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2009.10.003. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 48.US Department of Health and Human Services. Area Resource File (ARF) Rockville, MD: Health Resources and Services Administration, Bureau of Health Professions; 1980–2010. [Google Scholar]
- 49.U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Department of Commerce - Economics and Statistics Administration, editor. Data Base on Historical Tax Collections: “STC_Historical_DB” Fiscal Years 1951–2010. 2011. [Google Scholar]
- 50.National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism; Services DoHaH, editor. Per capita ethanol consumption in US 1970–2007. 2009. [Google Scholar]
- 51.O’Malley PM, Wagenaar AC. Effects of Minimum Drinking Age Laws on Alcohol Use, Related Behaviors and Traffic Crash Involvement among American Youth: 1976–1987. Journal of studies on alcohol. 1991;52(5):478–91. doi: 10.15288/jsa.1991.52.478. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 52.Wagenaar AC, Toomey T. Effects of Minimum Drinking Age Laws: Review and Analyses on the Literature from 1960–2000. Journal of studies on alcohol. 2002;(Suppl 14):206–55. doi: 10.15288/jsas.2002.s14.206. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 53.Lovenheim MF, Steefel DP. Do blue laws save lives? The effect of Sunday alcohol sales bans on fatal vehicle accidents. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. 2011;30(4):798–820. [Google Scholar]
- 54.Wagenaar AC, Harwood EM, Silianoff C, Toomey TL. Measuring public policy: The case of beer keg registration laws. Evaluation and Program Planning. 2005;28(4):359–67. [Google Scholar]
- 55.Grossman M, Chaloupka F, Saffer H, Laixuthai A. Effects of Alcohol Price Policy on Youth: A Summary of Economic Research. Journal of Research on Adolescence. 1994;4(2):347–64. [Google Scholar]
- 56.Cook PJ, Moore MJ. Environment and Persistence in Youthful Drinking Patterns. In: Gruber J, editor. Risky Behavior among Youths: An Economic Analysis. Chicago, IL: Universitu of Chicago Press; 2001. pp. 375–438. [Google Scholar]
- 57.Baum CF. An introduction to modern econometrics using Stata. College Station, TX: Stata Press; 2006. [Google Scholar]
- 58.StataCorp. Stata User’s Guide: Release 12. College Station, TX: Stata Press; 2011. [Google Scholar]
- 59.Ashe M, Jernigan D, Kline R, Galaz R. Land use planning and the control of alcohol, tobacco, firearms, and fast food restaurants. American Journal of Public Health. 2003 Sep;93(9):1404–8. doi: 10.2105/ajph.93.9.1404. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 60.Holder HD, Gruenewald PJ, Ponicki WR, Treno AJ, Grube JW, Saltz RF, et al. Effect of community-based interventions on high-risk drinking and alcohol-related injuries. JAMA : the journal of the American Medical Association. 2000 Nov 8;284(18):2341–7. doi: 10.1001/jama.284.18.2341. Research Support, U.S. Gov’t, P.H.S. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 61.Pollack KM, Xie D, Arbogast KB, Durbin DR. Body mass index and injury risk among US children 9–15 years old in motor vehicle crashes. Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention. 2008 Dec;14(6):366–71. doi: 10.1136/ip.2008.019208. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 62.Haricharan RN, Griffin RL, Barnhart DC, Harmon CM, McGwin G. Injury patterns among obese children involved in motor vehicle collisions. J Pediatr Surg [Comparative Study] 2009 Jun;44(6):1218–22. doi: 10.1016/j.jpedsurg.2009.02.029. discussion 22. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 63.Voas RB, Fell JC. Preventing impaired driving opportunities and problems. Alcohol research & health : the journal of the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. 2011;34(2):225–35. [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- 64.Wiliszowski CH, Fell JC, Smither D, Vegega ME, Auld-Owens A, Namuswe E. Feasibility of Collecting Traffic Safety Data from Law Enforcement Agencies. Washington, DC: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration; 2011. [Google Scholar]