Evaluating the Effect of State Regulation of Federally Licensed Firearm Dealers on Firearm Homicide

Abstract

Effective federal regulation of firearm dealers has proven difficult. Consequently, many states choose to implement their own regulations. We examined the impact of state-required licensing, record keeping of sales, allowable inspections, and mandatory theft reporting on firearm homicide from 1995 to 2010. We found that lower homicide rates were associated with states that required licensing and inspections. We concluded that firearm dealer regulations might be an effective harm reduction strategy for firearm homicide.

Current federal regulations and enforcement practices limit the federal government’s ability to effectively deter illegal firearm sales by federally licensed firearm dealers.^1–4 Several states have enacted their own firearm laws or require an additional layer of oversight, but evidence in support of these laws as injury reduction strategies vary.^5–7 Firearm dealer regulations aimed at decreasing trafficking have been successful, yet little data exist regarding the effect of these regulations on firearm homicides.⁸ In this study, we examined state licensing and other lawful sales promoting dealer regulations, and hypothesized that they decrease firearm homicide.

METHODS

We conducted a state-level panel study to examine how regulation of federally licensed firearm dealers related to firearm homicide during 1995 to 2010.

We used data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting Systems and Multiple Cause of Death files to identify state-level firearm homicide totals from 1995 to 2010. Homicide rates were subsequently calculated for each state. We used published peer-reviewed research that cited the laws regulating firearm dealers, and characterized the regulatory status of each state during the study.⁹ LexisNexis was used for confirmation.

We performed multivariable Poisson regression analyses controlling for sociodemographic characteristics from the US Census, burglary and drug arrest rates from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report, state firearm regulation scores from the Traveler’s Guide to Firearm Laws of the Fifty States, and a validated firearm ownership proxy measure.^10–12

Models were analyzed using state licensing, theft reporting, allowable inspections, and mandatory record keeping as categorical independent variables and homicide rates as the dependent variable. We also constructed models evaluating interactions between key variables.

In addition, a model using an overall strength variable, which equaled the sum of the 4 regulations, was constructed and analyzed. All analyses controlled for clustering at the state level.

RESULTS

The characterization of each state’s dealer regulations are listed in Table 1. Over the years examined, 195 932 people died by firearm homicide. The median annual homicide rate per 100 000 people was 3.66 (interquartile range = 1.80–5.39).

TABLE 1—

Mean Annual Homicide Rates by State and State Laws Regulating Federally Licensed Firearm Dealers: United States, 1995–2010

State	Mean Homicide Rate	License	Records	Inspections	Thefts
Alabama	7.27	Yes	Yes	No	No
Alaska	4.46	No	Yes	No	No
Arizona	6.18	No	No	No	No
Arkansas	5.82	No	No	No	No
California	5.06	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Colorado	2.84	No	Yes	Yes	No
Connecticut	2.4	Yes	Yes	Yes	No
Delaware	3.49	Yes	Yes	Yes	No
District of Columbia	29.01	Yes	Yes	No	No
Florida	4.44	No	No	No	No
Georgia	5.62	Yes	Yes	Yes	No
Hawaii	1.09	Yes	No	Yes	No
Idaho	1.98	No	No	No	No
Illinois	5.37	No	Yes	Yes	No
Indiana	4.41	Yes	No	No	No
Iowa	1.25	No	No	No	No
Kansas	3.36	No	No	No	No
Kentucky	3.78	No	No	No	No
Louisiana	10.5	No	No	No	No
Maine	1.31	No	Yes	Yes	No
Maryland	6.79	Yes	Yes	Yes	No
Massachusetts	1.49	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Michigan	5.22	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Minnesota	1.72	No	No	Yes	No
Mississippi	7.76	No	Yes	Yes	No
Missouri	5.3	No	No	No	No
Montana	2.64	No	No	No	No
Nebraska	2.29	No	No	No	No
Nevada	5.7	No	No	No	No
New Hampshire	0.99	Yes	No	No	No
New Jersey	2.6	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
New Mexico	5.07	No	No	No	No
New York	3.09	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
North Carolina	5.43	No	Yes	Yes	No
North Dakota	1.07	No	No	No	No
Ohio	3.21	No	No	No	Yes
Oklahoma	4.4	No	No	No	No
Oregon	2.23	No	Yes	Yes	No
Pennsylvania	4.2	Yes	Yes	No	No
Rhode Island	1.89	Yes	Yes	Yes	No
South Carolina	5.58	Yes	Yes	Yes	No
South Dakota	1.03	No	No	No	No
Tennessee	6.07	No	Yes	Yes	No
Texas	4.53	No	No	No	No
Utah	1.8	No	No	No	No
Vermont	1.31	No	Yes	Yes	No
Virginia	4.32	Yes	Yes	Yes	No
Washington	2.39	Yes	Yes	No	No
West Virginia	3.62	No	No	No	No
Wisconsin	2.46	No	Yes	No	No
Wyoming	2.15	No	Yes	Yes	No

Lower homicide rates were associated with states that required licensing and allowed inspections (Table 2). Theft reporting was not associated with lower homicide rates (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.04; 99% confidence interval [CI] = 0.95, 1.14), and record maintenance was associated with higher homicide rates (Table 2). The protective effect was stronger in states that required both licensing and inspections (IRR = 0.49; 99% CI = 0.42, 0.58).

TABLE 2—

Adjusted Effect of the State Regulations on Firearm Homicides: United States, 1995–2010

Outcome/Laws	IRR (95% CI)	AIC
Homicide rate		34.65
Licensing	0.74* (0.67, 0.81)
Record keeping	1.45* (1.30, 1.61)
Inspections	0.64* (0.59, 0.69)
Theft reporting	1.04 (0.95, 1.14)
Licensing and inspections	0.49* (0.42, 0.58)
Strength		34.65
1 law	1.10 (0.96, 1.26)
2 laws	0.94 (0.85, 1.05)
3 laws	0.76* (0.67, 0.86)
4 laws	0.75* (0.65, 0.86)

Note. AIC = Akaike's information criterion; CI = confidence interval; IRR = incident rate ratio. Covariates in the model included race, percent urban, percent living in poverty, percent male, percent younger than 24 years old, percent college educated, drug arrest rate, burglary rates,¹² scores, and firearm ownership proxy.

*P ≤ .001.

Lower homicide rates were associated with states that had 3 or more laws regulating firearm dealers (IRR = 0.76; 99% CI = 0.67, 0.86 [3 laws] and IRR = 0.75; 99% CI = 0.65, 0.86 [4 laws]).

DISCUSSION

Our national study adds to the literature through a rigorous examination of the effect of state regulation of firearm dealers on firearm homicide. Our findings suggest that firearm dealer licensing and allowable inspections might save lives. Although limited to association by the observational design and absence of policy change during the study period, these findings are promising and warrant further investigation.

Similar to previous studies, our results varied based on the type of regulation. State licensing and authorized inspections were associated with lower homicide rates, whereas record keeping was associated with increased homicides. Furthermore, having both licensing and inspections appeared to be more strongly protective against homicide than either alone. It makes intuitive sense for the effect to be stronger for having both mandatory licensing and allowable inspections because it is important to have a mechanism by which to evaluate and enforce compliance with the licensing. The association between record keeping and increased homicides is less clear. Perhaps this finding exists because states that have problems with firearm diversion, and consequently, increased access to guns that might be used in homicides, have chosen to enact these laws to attempt to address these problems. These findings highlight the complex nature of these associations and suggest that the findings might also be influenced by other unmeasured covariates, such as enforcement of the law or other unmeasured laws or variables not included within our models.¹³

Our findings are compelling, but have limitations. In addition to the study design caveats mentioned previously, it is important to acknowledge that, as evidenced by the nonlinear association between increasing laws and decreased firearm injury, all laws are not equivalent, and further research is necessary to identify the combination of laws that might best prevent homicide. Furthermore, we were unable to quantify enforcement in our models, which evidence suggested is an important factor in determining the effect of laws.^8,14,15

Firearm homicide is a persistent threat to societal well-being. Our study highlights regulatory approaches states could take to potentially decrease firearm homicide. Through tougher regulation of firearm dealers, it might be possible to prevent firearm-related deaths.