Figure 4.

The empirical probability that a proposed transmission route is correct for a range of posterior probabilities calculated under the geometric-Poisson assumption. A total of 100 outbreaks were simulated and the posterior probability of direct transmission was calculated for every pair of infected individuals. Counts were collated into 10% probability bins and for each bin, the proportion of true transmission routes was calculated. Error bars depict the 95% exact binomial confidence interval.