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International Journal of Clinical and Experimental Medicine logoLink to International Journal of Clinical and Experimental Medicine
. 2014 Nov 15;7(11):4165–4173.

Trends in age-specific cerebrovascular disease in the European Union

Hui Wang 1,*, Wei Sun 1,*, Yue Ji 1,*, Jing Shi 1, Qinkao Xuan 1, Xiuzhi Wang 1, Junjie Xiao 1,2, Xiangqing Kong 1
PMCID: PMC4276185  PMID: 25550927

Abstract

Although the mortality of cerebrovascular disease (CVD) has been steadily declined in the European Union (EU), CVD remains among the major causes of death in EU. As risk factors such asobesity and diabetes mellitus are increasing, the trends of European CVD mortality remains unknown. To understand the variation in CVD mortality of different EU countries, we studied the trends in CVD mortality in EU countries over the last three decades between males and females. Age- and sex-specific mortality rates between 1980 and 2011 were calculated by data from the WHO mortality database. Joinpoint software was used to calculate annual percentage changes and to characterize trends in mortality rates over time. Our study showed that between 1980 and 2011, CVD mortality significantly decreased in both men and women across all age groups. The specific mortality trends varied largely between EU countries. The plateau trend was observed in little regions at different age groups, however, the EU as a whole displayed declined trend CVD mortality. During the last three decades, CVD mortality decreased substantially in the entire population of EU. However, despite this overall decline in CVD mortality, several areas were identified as having no change in their CVD mortality rates at different period. The whole EU needs to establish strict prevention measures toreduce the incidence of CVD risk factors.

Keywords: Cerebrovascular disease, mortality, trends

Introduction

Cerebrovascular disease (CVD) is the second leading cause of death after ischemic heart disease worldwide [1]. The age-standardized death rates (per 100 000) of CVD declined by 19.5 percent from 105.7 deaths (per 100 000) in 1990 to 88.4 deaths (per 100 000) worldwide in 2010 [2-4]. Similar trends has also been identified in some countries in the European Region (EU) [5,6]. This decrease is largely due to declines in CVD risk factors, such as smoking, and improved health care [7]. However, many other risk factors, such asobesity and diabetes mellitus, have significantly increased [8-10]. Due to the high prevalence of many of those risk factors increasing CVD,it has been predicted that the declining trends in CVD mortality will stop. Furthermore, the leveling off mortality trends have already detected in coronary heart disease (CHD) in England, Walesand Germany [11,12]. CHD and CVD share similarrisk factors [13]. Moreover, the plateaus trends of CVD mortality have been observed in some region in EU at different time [14]. So far, little is known about the impact of these upwards prevalence risk factors on the trends of CVD mortality in the EU during the last three decades.

The aim of this study was to investigate overall trends in age- and sex-specific CVD mortality rates in EU countries between 1980 and 2011.

Methods

In this study, we obtained the CVD death count and population data for all country of the EU, from the WHO mortality database for the period 1980-2011. Age-and sex-specific mortality rates were calculated directly based on the European Standard Population. CVD as a cause of death was defined according to the International Classification of Disease codes (described in Appendix I as well as country code) Cyprus was excluded for unreliable and missing data. For Germany, we calculated the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) by combining the death count and population data of the former Democratic Republic of Germany and the former Federal Republic of Germany for years prior to 1990. In addition, England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland were combined together as the UK. The age groups analyzed were (i), 45 years, (ii) 45-54 years, (iii) 55-64 years, and (iv) 65 years and over.

Joinpoint software was used to identify CVD mortality trends for both sex and age. The software uses permutation tests to estimate direction and magnitude of changes in the trend with a significance level (α) of 0.05. Annual Percent Change (APC) and Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) were calculated to characterize the overall trend for a given time period. Every ten years of AAPC during the period 1980-2011 was used to observe the dynamically changes of CVD mortality.

Results

Table 1 lists the years that data was collected, with corresponding population sizes, total numbers of death, and total CVD deaths, further divided by country and sex. There were more CVD deaths among women than men in all the countries as well as a higher percentage of deaths among women than men caused by CVD.

Table 1.

Overview of data availability, and numbers of deaths and population in 2011

Data years Males 2011a Females 2011a

Total population Total deaths CVD deaths (% of total) Total population Total deaths CVD deaths (% of total)
Austria 1980-2011 4105493 36539 1914 5.2382% 4315407 39940 3020 7.5613%
Belgium 1980-2009 5290436 51356 3016 5.8727% 5506056.5 52460 4359 8.3092%
Bulgaria 1980-2011 3577946 56634 9321 16.4583% 3770502 51624 10979 21.2672%
Czech Republic 1985-2011 5153009 54141 4306 7.9533% 5343663 52707 6497 12.3266%
Denmark 1980-2006 2690179 25718 1447 5.6264% 2744388 26487 1953 7.3734%
Estonia 1981-2011 617809 7456 498 6.6792% 722119 7748 741 9.5638%
Finland 1980-2009 2645475 25152 1799 7.1525% 2742797 24752 2547 10.2901%
France 1980-2009 30334982 273461 13322 4.8716% 32303954 263736 18751 7.1098%
Germany 1980-2011 40152977 407628 23041 5.6525% 41626233 444700 36025 8.1010%
Greece 1980-2010 5598793 56480 6238 11.0446% 5708764 52604 8672 16.4854%
Hungary 1980-2011 4737813 63883 5804 9.0854% 5233914 64912 7565 11.6542%
Ireland 1980-2009 2217664 15044 777 5.1648% 2241641 13854 1238 8.9360%
Italy 1980-2010 29350339 285068 24086 8.4492% 31133047 299547 36687 12.2475%
Latvia 1980-2010 1033421 14584 1767 12.1160% 1205587 15489 2893 18.6778%
Lithuania 1981-2010 1527510 21536 2097 9.7372% 1759310 20584 3662 17.7905%
Luxembourg 1980-2010 252018 1810 118 6.5193% 254948 1811 172 9.4975%
Malta 1980-2011 206909 1664 152 9.1346% 208745 1603 183 11.4161%
Netherlands 1980-2011 8263177 65259 3302 5.0598% 8429897 70482 5138 7.2898%
Poland 1980-2011 18650105 198178 15230 7.6850% 19875565 177323 20332 11.4661%
Portugal 1980-2011 5042781 52786 5625 10.6562% 5514218 50414 7625 15.1248%
Romania 1980-2010 10434143 137957 21278 15.4236% 10997155 121766 26295 21.5947%
Slovakia 1992-2010 2639896 27645 2514 9.0939% 2791128 25800 3342 12.9535%
Slovenia 1985-2010 1014716 9292 829 8.9217% 1034545 9317 1144 12.2786%
Spain 1980-2010 22697679 198121 12152 6.1336% 23375152 183926 16703 9.0814%
Sweden 1980-2010 4669629 43919 3111 7.0835% 4708497 46600 4491 9.6373%
UK 1980-2010 30643254 270945 19294 7.1210% 31618713 290721 30080 10.3467%
a

Data are for 2011, or most recent available years.

Overall age-standardized CVD mortality for men and women are presented in Figure 1. The ASMR for women was higher than men for all 32 study years all ages combined. Between 1980 and 2011, it decreased by 38.8% in men and 36.6% in women. The characteristic decline curves in mortality rate for men and women were nearly the same, indicating a moderate decrease between 1980 and 2002 followed by a steeper decrease.

Figure 1.

Figure 1

Age-standard CVD mortality for men and women between 1980 and 2011 in European Region.

Trends in CVD mortality across age groups were presented in more detail in Figure 2. CVD ASMR dropped substantially in both men and women in all age groups. After 1985, a constant decrease was found in all age groups followed bya less pronounced decrease between 2006 and 2011. In addition, CVD mortality was always higher among men (excluding aged > 65), among whom CVD mortality was higher among women since 1987. A significant decrease in CVD mortality was detected in almost all countries in EU among both sexes in the last decades. Except the group (55-64 years), the ten-year AAPC of CVD mortality for all subgroupsincreased every ten years.

Figure 2.

Figure 2

Age-and sex-specific mortality rates between 1980 and 2011 in European Region.

No major different was detected in the AAPC change in ASMR in both sexes combined all age groups between 1980 and 2011 (Table 2). Only the declining trends in age groups (44-54, 55-64) are more pronounced compared with the younger ones (< 45) and the older groups (> 65). For ages 55 to 64, the decline trends appeared tolevel off or even rise after 2006.

Table 2.

Overview of AAPC and APC in men and women in EU between 1980 and 2011

AAPC Trend 1 Trend 2 Trend 3 Trend 4

1980-2011 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2011 Period APC Period APC Period APC Period APC
Male
    all ages -1.4* -1.1* -1.1* -1.9* 1980-2002 -1.1* 2002-2006 -3.9* 2006-2011 -0.5
    < 45 years -2.1* -0.8* -1.9* -3.4* 1980-1988 -1.0* 1988-1993 1.1 1993-2011 -3.4*
    45-54 years -2.6* -1.9* -1.9* -3.9* 1980-2004 -1.9* 2004-2011 -5.0*
    55-64 years -2.4* -1.8* -2.8* -2.4* 1980-1995 -1.8* 1995-2009 -4.0* 2009-2011 5.1
    > 65 years -2.5* -1.4* -2.6* -3.2* 1980-1984 0.1 1984-2003 -2.6* 2003-2006 -5.7 2006-2011 -2.0*
Female
    all ages -1.4* -0.9* -0.9* -2.2* 1980-2002 -0.9* 2002-2005 -5.3 2005-2011 -1
    < 45 years -2.2* -0.5* -1.7* -4.0* 1980-1996 -0.5* 1996-2011 -4.0*
    45-54 years -3.1* -3.1* -1.6* -4.4* 1980-1990 -3.1* 1990-2004 -1.6* 2004-2011 -6.0*
    55-64 years -3.1* -2.3* -3.0* -3.8* 1980-1984 -1.4 1984-2000 -3.0* 2000-2009 -5.3* 2009-2011 3.4
    > 65 years -2.0* -1.0* -2.1* -2.8* 1980-1985 -0.1 1985-2003 -2.1* 2003-2006 -5.5* 2006-2011 -1.5*
*

Rate of change significantly different from 0 at P<0.05.

The tendency for CVD mortality varied countries from countries in the EU. Across all 26 countries, most of them indicated a drop tendency in the past three decades. Austria, Estonia, France, Ireland and Luxembourg demonstrated asteeper decreasein comparison to all other countries (AAPC ≤ 3.0% among both sexes from 1980 and 2011) (Table 3). Among men, no significant change was observed in Denmark, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden and UK. For women only Malta had no significant change. Moreover, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia showed positive AAPC for men and women between 1980 and 2011.

Table 3.

Joinpoint analyses of APC and AAPC by country and sex, all ages combined

AAPC Trend 1 Trend 2 Trend 3 Trend 4

1980-2011 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2011 Period APC Period APC Period APC Period APC
Males
    Austria -4.2* -3.2* -3.3 -5.6* 1980-1985 -1.20 1985-1994 -5.5* 1994-1997 1.3 1997-2011 -5.6*
    Belgium -2.2* -2.7* -1.9 -1.9* 1980-1983 1.20 1983-1987 -5.9* 1987-2009 -1.9*
    Bulgaria 0.4* 0.4* 0.4* 0.4* 1980-2011 0.4*
    Czech Republic -2.0* 2 -3.6* -3.6* 1980-1986 4.9* 1986-2011 -3.6*
    Denmark -1.8 -2.4* -1.3 1994-2000 -2.4* 2000-2003 3.7 2003-2006 -6.0*
    Estonia -5.5* -2.3* -7.2* 1994-2005 -2.3* 2005-2011 -11.1*
    Finland -1.7* -1.7* -1.7* -1.7* 1987-2011 -1.7*
    France -3.1* -4.0* -2.6* -2.6* 1980-1986 -2.6* 1986-1989 -6.7* 1989-2009 -2.6*
    Germany -2.6* -2.7* -2.8* -2.3* 1980-1988 -2.8* 1988-1995 -1.7* 1995-2005 -4.0* 2005-2011 -0.9
    Greece -0.7* 0.7* -0.3* -2.3* 1980-1985 1.4* 1985-2002 -0.3* 2002-2010 -2.8*
    Hungary -1.8* -1.5* -0.7* -3.1* 1980-1988 -1.6* 1988-2003 -0.7* 2003-2006 -7.7* 2006-2011 -1.6*
    Ireland -3.1* -2.6* -2.6* -4.2* 1980-2001 -2.6* 2001-2006 -7.9* 2006-2009 1.7
    Italy -1.4* -0.9* -1.4* -1.7* 1980-1993 -0.9* 1993-2010 -1.7*
    Latvia -0.6* 0.6* 0.6* -2.9* 1980-2002 0.6* 2002-2010 -3.7*
    Lithuania 1.4* 0.9* 0.9* 2.2* 1981-2000 0.9* 2000-2010 2.2*
    Luxembourg -3.7* -2.6* -5.3* -2.9 1980-1985 -0.30 1985-2007 -5.3* 2007-2010 3
    Malta -1.3* -1.3* -1.3* -1.3* 1980-2010 -1.3*
    Netherlands -2.1* -1.4* -1.2* -3.8* 1980-1987 -1.9* 1987-1991 0.3 1991-2002 -1.3* 2002-2011 -4.3*
    Poland 1.6* 2.0* 4.3* -1.6* 1980-1995 2.0* 1995-2000 7.2* 2000-2011 -1.6*
    Portugal -2.2* -0.2* -1.6* -4.3* 1980-1996 -0.20 1996-2011 -4.3*
    Romania 1.8* 1.9* 4.3* -0.5* 1980-1991 1.9* 1991-1994 13.7* 1994-2010 -0.5*
    Slovakia 0.6 -1.4* 2.3* 1992-2005 -1.4* 2005-2010 6.1*
    Slovenia -1.3* -0.3 -2.5* -0.4* 1985-1992 -0.30 1992-2007 -3.1* 2007-2010 6.3
    Spain -2.3 -1.8 -1.8 -3.3 1980-2002 -1.8 2002-2010 -3.6
    Sweden -1.6 0 0 -3.4 1987-1999 0 1999-2010 -3.4
    UK -2 -0.9 -2 -3.8 1980-1986 -0.2 1986-1998 -2.4 1998-2002 1.2 2002-2010 -4.4
Females
    Austria -3.6* -1.8* -3.2* -5.4* 1980-1984 0.1 1984-2002 -3.2* 2002-2005 -13.3 2005-2011 -2
    Belgium -2.0* -1.6* -1.9* -2.5* 1980-1983 3 1983-1988 -4.5* 1988-1993 -0.7 1993-2009 -2.5*
    Bulgaria 0.1 -1 0.5* 0.7 1980-1982 -5.8 1982-2004 0.5* 2004-2007 5 2007-2011 -2.3
    Czech Republic -1.4* 2.7 -3.1* -3.1* 1980-1986 5.8* 1986-2011 -3.1*
    Denmark -1.9* -2.6* -1.9 1994-1999 -2.6* 1999-2002 1.7 2002-2006 -3.7*
    Estonia -5.8* -2.2* -7.8* 1994-2003 -2.2* 2003-2011 -9.8*
    Finland -2.1* -0.4 -1.9* -2.6* 1987-1993 -0.4 1993-2011 -2.6*
    France -3.2* -3.5* -3.0* -3.0* 1980-1985 -2.0* 1985-1988 -6.0* 1988-2009 -3.0*
    Germany -2.4* -1.3* -2.7* -3.1* 1980-1988 -1.5* 1988-1993 0.2 1993-2007 -4.1* 2007-2011 -1.2
    Greece -0.8* 0.9* -0.5* -2.6* 1980-1987 1.3* 1987-2003 -0.5* 2003-2010 -3.5*
    Hungary -1.6* -1.3* -0.9* -2.7* 1980-1994 -1.3* 1994-2003 -0.5 2003-2006 -7.5* 2006-2011 -0.9
    Ireland -2.9* -3.0* -1.9* -4.2* 1980-1984 -4.3* 1984-2000 -1.9* 2000-2005 -7.6* 2005-2009 0.2
    Italy -0.6* 0.1 -0.6* -1.2* 1980-1994 0.1 1994-2010 -1.2*
    Latvia -0.9* 0.7 0.2 -3.6* 1980-1985 3.4* 1985-1989 -2.6 1989-2003 0.2 2003-2010 -5.2*
    Lithuania 1.5* 1.5* 1.5* 1.5* 1981-2010 1.5*
    Luxembourg -3.7* -1.3* -4.7* -4.7* 1980-1989 -1.3* 1989-2010 -4.7*
    Malta -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 1980-2010 -0.4
    Netherlands -1.5* 0.2 -0.7* -3.7* 1980-1987 -0.2 1987-1992 1.8* 1992-2002 -1.4* 2002-2011 -4.3*
    Poland 1.4* 1.4* 4.7* -1.9* 1980-1995 1.4* 1995-2000 9.1* 2000-2011 -1.9*
    Portugal -1.9* 0.1 -1.3* -4.1* 1980-1996 0.1 1996-2011 -4.1*
    Romania 1.4* 1.8* 3.7* -0.9 1980-1991 1.8* 1991-1994 9.9 1994-2005 0.5 2005-2010 -2.3*
    Slovakia 1.2* -1.0* 3.1* 1992-2006 -1.0* 2006-2010 9.5*
    Slovenia -1.2* -2.2* -2.2* 0.3 1985-2006 -2.2* 2006-2010 4.2
    Spain -2.2* -1.1* -2.0* -3.6* 1980-1991 -1.1* 1991-2003 -2.1* 2003-2010 -4.2*
    Sweden -1.4* 0.0* 0 -3.2* 1987-2002 0 2002-2005 -6.7 2005-2010 -2.3*
    UK -2.1* -0.5 -2.0* -4.2* 1980-1988 -0.2 1988-1998 -2.3* 1998-2002 0.2 2002-2010 -4.7*
*

Rate of change significantly different from 0 at P<0.05.

Joinpoint analyses indicated a levelling off of trendsin all ages combined and subgroups (aged ≥ 55 years) after the year 2006 for men and women. Additionally, those plateaus trends were also observed in individual countries at different times. For men, Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Luxembourg, Slovakia and Slovenia presented a less pronounced decline or even a rise. Austria, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Slovakia, and Sweden shared a similar pattern in women. However, in the majority of countries that had mortality trends with plateau characteristics, the APC was still statistically significant for a decrease in CVD mortality (Figure 3).

Figure 3.

Figure 3

Trends in age-standardized mortality rate by country in EU. Data for age-standardized mortality Exception, where data were not available for all years are Belgium (no data 2000-2002); Estonia (no data before 1994); Lithuania (no data 1980, 1983-1984, 1993-1997); Poland (nodata1997-1998); Portugal (no data 2004-2006); Slovakia (no data before 1992); Slovenia (no data before 1985); Sweden (no data for male 1980, 2008); UK (no data 20000).

Discussion

In the whole EU, CVD mortality decreased markedly between 1980 and 2011. The overall trends were characterized by a drop patternin both sexes and ages. Declines were sustained in 16 of all 26 countries such as Austria, Estonia, France, Ireland and Luxembourg. In many countries CVD mortality had decreased by 50%, and in Austria it decreased by 70%. Overall, average all-cause mortality has declined, both among men and among women, but variation between countries still exists.

Blood pressure (BP) is the principal risk factor for stroke, and the decline in CVD among EU is largely caused by reducing in the prevalence of hypertension [10,15,16]. Therapeutic interventions for hypertension have been carried out gradually among the EU. For example Germany, Sweden, England, Spain and Italy started to conduct treatment for hypertension in the 1990s. The different starting dates for the treatment for hypertension could affect the CVD mortality trends in the past three decades.

For men in Belgium, the prevalence of systolic blood pressure above 159 mm Hg decreased from 51% to 21% between 1967 and 1986. The proportion of subjects receiving treatment for hypertension increased from 10% to 36%. The decrease in stroke mortality in Belgium associated with effects of treatment for hypertension and a decrease in sodium intake [17]. This is in contrast with Portugal where the diet is traditionally very rich in salt. Although the salt content of the Portuguese diet has been declining in recent decades, Portugal still has a higher rates of stroke mortality in Western European. Higher rates of stroke in lower socioeconomic groups and in rural areas suggest a link between stroke mortality and adherence to the traditional Portuguese diet [18].

Differences in economic and political correlates may also contribute to the changes in mortality trends. The CVD mortality rates declined with rapid economic growth that brought a degree of prosperity everywhere, as systems of social security were introduced that reduced the risks of poverty, and new drugs and other treatment modes were developed that brought diseases under control. The overall trends for Germany in our investigation reflect a special situation attributable to the reunification in 1990 [19]. Politically, however, Europe was divided between a Western, capitalist bloc, and an Eastern, communist bloc.Stroke mortality rose in Eastern European countries until the late 1980s to a level twice as high as that in Western European [20]. The mortality levels in Western Europe, still very dissimilar in the 1950s, converged to low levels around 1990, while those in Central and Eastern Europe such as Bulgaria remained high and increasingly moved away from those in Western Europe. Both among men and among women most of Bulgaria’s widening gap in total mortality is proportional to its growing economic disadvantage, as well as its democratic deficit, as compared to Sweden. Apart from a few exceptions, the overall declining trends in EU still continue. It is, however still difficult to draw a conclusion that the CVD mortality in EU is starting to plateau or increase.

In conclusion, the last three decades significant reductions in CVD mortality have been observed in all age groups and in both sexes in most EU countries. To date, there is little evidence to suggest that these reductions are plateauing in younger age groups across the EU as a whole. However, in a small number of countries there was evidence of recent plateauing in some age groups. It remains vitally important for the whole EU to monitor and work towards reducing preventable risk factors for CAD and other chronic conditions to promote well-being and equity across the region.

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the grants from National Natural Science Foundation of China (81100162 to W. Sun; 81200669 to J. Xiao), Innovation Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (13YZ014 to J. Xiao), Foundation for University Young Teachers by Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (year 2012, to J. Xiao), Innovation Foundation of Shanghai university (sdcx2012038, to J. Xiao), and Program for the integration of production, teaching and research for University Teachers supported by Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (year 2014, to JJ Xiao), and by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD2010-2013). Dr XQ Kong is a Fellow at the Collaborative Innovation Center for Cardiovascular Disease Translational Medicine.

Disclosure of conflict of interest

None.

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