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The British Journal of General Practice logoLink to The British Journal of General Practice
. 2015 Jul 27;65(637):e489–e499. doi: 10.3399/bjgp15X686053

Clinical history for diagnosis of dementia in men: Caerphilly Prospective Study

Sam Creavin 1, Mark Fish 2, John Gallacher 3, Antony Bayer 4, Yoav Ben-Shlomo 5
PMCID: PMC4513736  PMID: 26212844

Abstract

Background

Diagnosis of dementia often requires specialist referral and detailed, time-consuming assessments.

Aim

To investigate the utility of simple clinical items that non-specialist clinicians could use, in addition to routine practice, to diagnose all-cause dementia syndrome.

Design and setting

Cross-sectional diagnostic test accuracy study. Participants were identified from the electoral roll and general practice lists in Caerphilly and adjoining villages in South Wales, UK.

Method

Participants (1225 men aged 45–59 years) were screened for cognitive impairment using the Cambridge Cognitive Examination, CAMCOG, at phase 5 of the Caerphilly Prospective Study (CaPS). Index tests were a standardised clinical evaluation, neurological examination, and individual items on the Informant Questionnaire for Cognitive Disorders in the Elderly (IQCODE).

Results

Two-hundred and five men who screened positive (68%) and 45 (4.8%) who screened negative were seen, with 59 diagnosed with dementia. The model comprising problems with personal finance and planning had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.86 to 0.97), positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 23.7 (95% CI = 5.88 to 95.6), negative likelihood ratio (LR−) of 0.41 (95% CI = 0.27 to 0.62). The best single item for ruling out was no problems learning to use new gadgets (LR− of 0.22, 95% CI = 0.11 to 0.43).

Conclusion

This study found that three simple questions have high utility for diagnosing dementia in men who are cognitively screened. If confirmed, this could lead to less burdensome assessment where clinical assessment suggests possible dementia.

Keywords: cohort studies, dementia, diagnostic tests, general practice, sensitivity and specificity

INTRODUCTION

The diagnostic pathway for dementia, particularly in the UK, is changing. Case-finding seeks to identify people with possible dementia who have not been formally diagnosed, and has been a source of particular debate.14 In contrast, a formal diagnosis aims to be as definitive as possible about the presence or absence of dementia, but the process of getting a diagnosis is often not patient-centred.5 In the general population there are often multiple contributing pathologies to dementia syndrome,6,7 with the association between Alzheimer’s pathology and dementia weakening with age.8 Recent innovations in UK clinical practice have expanded the role of primary care in the diagnosis of dementia, such as GPs diagnosing patients without referral,9 or arranging for a specialist to visit primary care.10 In the UK, GPs are being encouraged to diagnose dementia independently,11 at least in people with moderately advanced disease.12

Few studies exist to provide an evidence-based approach to the diagnosis of dementia by GPs. The World Health Organization recommends that dementia is diagnosed by non-specialists in routine cases in low and middle income countries13; indeed the global clinical judgement of repeated GP consultations (three or four 10-minute-consultations) has moderate utility for the diagnosis of dementia with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.74.14 An AUC of 0.5 indicates a test no better than chance, such as coin-tossing, whereas an AUC of 1 indicates no diagnostic errors. In community-dwelling older people, a combination of functional activities questionnaire score15 with Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) score16 and age had an AUC of 0.95.17 However, the MMSE is relatively time-consuming (between 7 and 18 minutes)18 and copyright-protected. GPs commonly report lack of time as a barrier to diagnosing dementia.19 It is desirable to identify the utility of simple clinical items that could be used easily by clinicians, as has been shown for the diagnosis of major depression in which two simple items have an AUC of 0.93.20

The present study used data from the Caerphilly Prospective Study (CaPS) to examine the utility of a variety of simple questions around everyday function, as well as conventional clinical assessment, for diagnosing dementia in older men. It aimed at identifying a quick and simple combination of questions that could be used by a GP as a further diagnostic test, in a person whom they suspected of having dementia after the usual clinical evaluation.

METHOD

Participants

CaPS is a cohort study of men that was established to investigate cardiovascular disease.21 Men aged 45–59 years were identified from the electoral roll and general practice lists in Caerphilly and adjoining villages in South Wales, UK. Initial participation rate was 89% and 2512 men were examined in phase 1 (July 1979 to September 1983) and then followed-up at regular intervals. Cognition was assessed at phases 3 (November 1989 to September 1993), 4 (October 1993 to February 1997), and 5 (September 2002 to June 2004) using tests including the MMSE.16 At phase 5 all men who met screening criteria,22 as well as a sample of those who screened negative, were invited for a clinical evaluation in their home or research clinic by a neurologist. Figure 1 shows the selection of participants and provides the screening criteria.

Figure 1.

Figure 1.

Flow of participation in the study.

How this fits in

Commissioners are interested in expanding the role of primary care in diagnosing some people with dementia without referral. However, GPs report lack of time as a barrier to this. The present study identifies three simple questions about functioning that had greater specificity than the composite MMSE (Mini Mental State Examination) for diagnosing dementia. These can be used easily by GPs as part of their assessment of a patient whom they believe may have a diagnosis of dementia.

Index test and reference standard

The reference standard was a consensus diagnosis of dementia made by two clinicians with specialist training in memory disorders using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV),23 after reviewing all relevant information including medical records (including investigations where available) and the clinical assessment.22

The index tests were items from the clinical assessment, incorporating a structured history and neurological examination (Cardiff modified CAMDEX24 and Frontal Assessment Battery25) and an informant interview (IQCODE26). Clinical assessment was conducted without prior knowledge of the patient and the informant questionnaire was conducted at the end of the evaluation. Individual items evaluated physical functioning (for example, incontinence), symptom patterns (for example, variability), personality (for example, aggression), and social functioning (for example, ability to plan), and were assessed either directly by the clinician or from the participant and informant (see Appendix 1 for detailed list of items).

Statistical methods

The diagnostic utility of each index item was assessed by calculating standard diagnostic measures, positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratio (LR+, LR−), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and AUC with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). As a result of small cell counts, any variable that had more than two categories (for example, normal versus abnormal) was dichotomised. Equivocal physical examination findings were analysed initially as present.

As it was desired to combine index items, only items that met conventional statistical significance (P<0.05) were modelled, and where there were at least 20 subjects in each cell so diagnostic but infrequent items (for example, pout reflex) were excluded. Logistic regression models were used with dementia as the outcome and the index items as diagnostic predictors.27 First, backward stepwise logistic regression models were used with all items meeting the above criteria. Second, this was repeated but using only the five items with the greatest DOR and backwards and forwards stepwise models were run. This was also repeated using the Youden Index,28 as standard stepwise approaches maximise the AUC but not necessarily the diagnostic utility.28

For each model, the model probability of dementia was examined, and only models in which the highest risk was at least 90% were selected, then goodness of fit statistics were calculated to choose between these models.29

In addition the following supplementary analyses were made: any subjects with a prior diagnosis of dementia were excluded; analyses were repeated but recoding equivocal clinical items as absent; imputation was used for missing item data using chained equations and creating seven simulated datasets.30 All analyses were conducted in Stata (version 13).

RESULTS

At the start of phase 5, 1225 men were alive and 300 were screen positive. Of those who were screen positive 205 (68%) attended clinical assessment. In addition, 47 of the 925 men who screened negative were invited for clinical assessment,22 with 45 (95.7%) of these subsequently assessed (see Figure 1 for details for non-response). Seven had already been given a diagnosis of dementia. The cognitive screening procedures were 98% sensitive for identifying men with dementia (Table 1).

Table 1.

Cross-tabulation of cognitive impairment screen against reference standard

Dementia (DSM-IV)

Yes No Total
Cognitive impairment screena Positive 58 147 205
Negative 1 44 45
Total 59 191 250
a

Cambridge Cognitive Examination (CAMCOG) <83 or failure to complete the CAMCOG despite an attempt to do so, or a longitudinal decline in CAMCOG score of ≥ 10 points between any two measurement periods.

Fifty-nine men (24%; 95% CI = 19% to 29%) were diagnosed as having dementia (median age 77.8 years; interquartile range [IQR] 74.9–80.0) and 191 (76%; 95% CI = 71% to 81%) did not have dementia (median age 75.7 years; IQR 71.8–79.3). The median (IQR) MMSE score in men with dementia was 20 (16–23) compared with 25 (22–29) in those without dementia. One-hundred and thirty-eight men were identified as having cognitive impairment not dementia (CIND), and they were included in the no-dementia group for analysis.

Table 2 presents the sensitivity and specificity for the individual clinical items that were examined in combinations. The most sensitive items were participant report of any memory difficulty (91.1%; 95% CI = 80.4% to 97.0%) or forgetting where things were left (91.1%, 95% CI = 80.4% to 97.0%), but specificity was only 19.8% and 31.9%, respectively. Highly specific items were: informant report of problems with reasoning (95.1%; 95% CI = 90.6% to 97.9%); hygiene (95.3%; 95% CI = 90.9% to 98.0%); and disinhibited behaviour (94.7%; 95% CI = 89.9% to 97.7%). A list of diagnostic utility of all single items, regardless of cell counts, is available from the authors on request; the diagnostic accuracy for some items could not be calculated because they were not identified in any men (details in Appendix 1).

Table 2.

Sensitivity and specificity for most useful individual clinical items

Number with data (% missing) Sensitivity (95% CI) Specificity (95% CI)

No dementia (n= 191) Dementia (n= 59)
  Any memory difficulty (subject) 187 (0.02) 56 (0.05) 91.1 (80.4 to 97.0) 19.8 (14.3 to 26.2)
  Any memory difficulty (informant) 157 (0.18) 53 (0.10) 83.0 (70.2 to 91.9) 31.2 (24.1 to 39.1)
  Forget where left things (subject) 188 (0.02) 56 (0.05) 91.1 (80.4 to 97.0) 31.9 (25.3 to 39.1)
  Forget where left things (informant) 159 (0.17) 53 (0.10) 81.1 (68.0 to 90.6) 40.9 (33.2 to 49.0)
  Forget what going to do (informant) 148 (0.23) 51 (0.14) 66.7 (52.1 to 79.2) 56.8 (48.4 to 64.9)
  Forget names (subject) 189 (0.01) 56 (0.05) 62.5 (48.6 to 75.1) 66.7 (59.5 to 73.3)
  Forget names (informant) 161 (0.16) 53 (0.10) 62.3 (47.9 to 75.2) 65.2 (57.3 to 72.5)
  Repeat question (subject) 186 (0.03) 55 (0.07) 65.5 (51.4 to 77.8) 63.3 (56.0 to 70.2)
  Repeat question (informant) 159 (0.17) 53 (0.10) 66.0 (51.7 to 78.5) 63.5 (55.5 to 71.0)
  Wrong word (subject) 189 (0.01) 56 (0.05) 51.8 (38.0 to 65.3) 68.3 (61.1 to 74.8)
  Wrong word (informant) 161 (0.16) 53 (0.10) 50.9 (36.8 to 64.9) 70.8 (63.1 to 77.7)

Examination findings
  Any gait disturbance 184 (0.04) 56 (0.05) 42.9 (29.7 to 56.8) 91.3 (86.3 to 95.0)
  Any primitive reflexes 166 (0.13) 46 (0.22) 45.7 (30.9 to 61.0) 77.1 (70.0 to 83.3)
  Pout 183 (0.04) 51 (0.14) 21.6 (11.3 to 35.3) 93.4 (88.8 to 96.6)

IQCODE (informant). Compared with 10 years ago, how is this person at:
  Family and friends 133 (0.30) 44 (0.25) 75.0 (59.7 to 86.8) 70.7 (62.2 to 78.3)
  Recall recent events 163 (0.15) 54 (0.08) 79.6 (66.5 to 89.4) 65.6 (57.8 to 72.9)
  Recall conversations 164 (0.14) 55 (0.07) 78.2 (65.0 to 88.2) 53.7 (45.7 to 61.5)
  Recall own address 161 (0.16) 52 (0.12) 50.0 (35.8 to 64.2) 91.3 (85.8 to 95.2)
  Recall day 162 (0.15) 55 (0.07) 69.1 (55.2 to 80.9) 78.4 (71.3 to 84.5)
  Recall where kept 159 (0.17) 52 (0.12) 73.1 (59.0 to 84.4) 77.4 (70.1 to 83.6)
  Recall different place 161 (0.16) 51 (0.14) 86.3 (73.7 to 94.3) 50.9 (42.9 to 58.9)
  Work appliances 156 (0.18) 49 (0.17) 53.1 (38.3 to 67.5) 91.0 (85.4 to 95.0)
  Learn new gadget 157 (0.18) 52 (0.12) 86.5 (74.2 to 94.4) 62.4 (54.4 to 70.0)
  Learn in general 162 (0.15) 55 (0.07) 81.8 (69.1 to 90.9) 68.5 (60.8 to 75.6)
  Follow story 159 (0.17) 52 (0.12) 65.4 (50.9 to 78.0) 79.3 (72.1 to 85.3)
  Decisions 157 (0.18) 48 (0.19) 60.4 (45.3 to 74.2) 89.2 (83.2 to 93.6)
  Shopping money 156 (0.18) 48 (0.19) 50.0 (35.2 to 64.8) 94.2 (89.3 to 97.3)
  Personal finance 135 (0.29) 42 (0.29) 66.7 (50.5 to 80.4) 93.3 (87.7 to 96.9)
  Everyday maths 130 (0.32) 43 (0.27) 65.1 (49.1 to 79.0) 90.8 (84.4 to 95.1)
  Reasoning 164 (0.14) 55 (0.07) 50.9 (37.1 to 64.7) 95.1 (90.6 to 97.9)

Everyday activities (asked of subject and informant, present if either identified)
  Any problems with daily activities 184 (0.04) 55 (0.07) 54.6 (40.6 to 68.0) 75.5 (68.7 to 81.6)
  Dressing 172 (0.10) 54 (0.08) 31.5 (19.5 to 45.6) 90.1 (84.7 to 94.1)
  Toileting 172 (0.10) 55 (0.07) 29.1 (17.6 to 42.9) 91.9 (86.7 to 95.5)
  Hygiene 170 (0.11) 55 (0.07) 32.7 (20.7 to 46.7) 95.3 (90.9 to 98.0)

Physical symptoms (informant)
  Any physical symptoms 181 (0.05) 52 (0.12) 63.5 (49.0 to 76.4) 75.7 (68.8 to 81.8)
  Urinary incontinence 184 (0.04) 55 (0.07) 47.3 (33.7 to 61.2) 92.9 (88.2 to 96.2)
  Falls 186 (0.03) 55 (0.07) 49.1 (35.4 to 62.9) 79.6 (73.1 to 85.1)

General functioning report (informant)
  Often muddled 104 (0.46) 49 (0.17) 53.1 (38.3 to 67.5) 94.2 (87.9 to 97.9)
  Sometimes muddled 102 (0.47) 50 (0.15) 66.0 (51.2 to 78.8) 78.4 (69.2 to 86.0)
  Planning 103 (0.46) 46 (0.22) 76.1 (61.2 to 87.4) 82.5 (73.8 to 89.3)
  Concentrating 103 (0.46) 47 (0.20) 80.9 (66.7 to 90.9) 57.3 (47.2 to 67.0)
  Talk less 103 (0.46) 49 (0.17) 55.1 (40.2 to 69.3) 78.6 (69.5 to 86.1)
  Repeat words 102 (0.47) 50 (0.15) 48.0 (33.7 to 62.6) 81.4 (72.5 to 88.4)
  No insight 101 (0.47) 47 (0.20) 61.7 (46.4 to 75.5) 82.2 (73.3 to 89.1)

Personality/emotion/behaviour (informant)
  Any personality change 164 (0.14) 52 (0.12) 71.2 (56.9 to 82.9) 56.7 (48.8 to 64.4)
  Labile 155 (0.19) 50 (0.15) 42.0 (28.2 to 56.8) 87.1 (80.8 to 91.9)
  Unmotivated 152 (0.20) 48 (0.19) 37.5 (24.0 to 52.7) 83.6 (76.7 to 89.1)
  Disinhibited 152 (0.20) 48 (0.19) 27.1 (15.3 to 41.9) 94.7 (89.9 to 97.7)
  Sleep disturbed 152 (0.20) 48 (0.19) 45.8 (31.4 to 60.8) 79.0 (71.6 to 85.1)
  Aggressive 153 (0.20) 49 (0.17) 40.8 (27.0 to 55.8) 89.5 (83.6 to 93.9)
  Narrowed preoccupations 152 (0.20) 48 (0.19) 37.5 (24.0 to 52.7) 92.8 (87.4 to 96.3)
  Mental rigidity 145 (0.24) 49 (0.17) 24.5 (13.3 to 38.9) 92.4 (86.8 to 96.2)
  Any functioning problems 164 (0.14) 53 (0.10) 88.7 (77.0 to 95.7) 40.2 (32.7 to 48.2)
  Symptom fluctuation (any) 146 (0.24) 49 (0.17) 42.9 (28.8 to 57.8) 78.1 (70.5 to 84.5)
  Day to day 140 (0.27) 49 (0.17) 42.9 (28.8 to 57.8) 82.9 (75.6 to 88.7)
  Age >75 years 191 (0.00) 59 (0.00) 72.9 (59.7 to 83.6) 45.6 (38.3 to 52.9)

The best performing individual items for LR−, LR+, and AUC were as follows: problems with ‘learn new gadget’ (LR− 0.22; 95% CI = 0.11 to 0.43), problems with ‘reasoning’ (LR+ 10.4; 95% CI = 5.06 to 21.5), and problems with ‘personal finance’ (AUC 0.80; 95% CI = 0.72 to 0.88) (Table 3). The optimal cut-point for diagnosis of dementia using age alone was 75.8 years (LR− 0.61; LR+ 1.40; AUC 0.60). In contrast the utility of the MMSE at a traditional cut-point of ≥24 indicating normality was LR− 0.28; LR+ 2.14; AUC 0.72, and the utility of memory problem noted by informant or participant was LR− 0.45; LR+ 1.10; AUC 0.55 suggesting this alone is not a useful diagnostic feature in this population.

Table 3.

Diagnostic utility of the best performing individual clinical items

Clinical itema N LR+ (95% CI) LR− (95% CI) DOR (95% CI) AUC (95% CI) Youden (95% CI)
Reasoning 219 10.4 (5.06 to 21.5) 0.52 (0.39 to 0.68) 20.2 (8.45 to 48.2) 0.73 (0.66 to 0.80) 0.46 (0.31 to 0.59)
Personal finance 177 10.0 (5.14 to 19.5) 0.36 (0.23 to 0.55) 28.0 (11.1 to 70.3) 0.80 (0.72 to 0.88) 0.60 (0.43 to 0.73)
Often muddled 153 9.20 (4.05 to 20.9) 0.50 (0.37 to 0.67) 18.5 (6.95 to 48.8) 0.74 (0.66 to 0.81) 0.47 (0.31 to 0.61)
Shopping money 204 8.67 (4.33 to 17.4) 0.53 (0.40 to 0.71) 16.3 (6.86 to 38.8) 0.72 (0.65 to 0.79) 0.44 (0.28 to 0.58)
Everyday maths 173 7.05 (3.94 to 12.6) 0.38 (0.25 to 0.58) 18.4 (7.80 to 43.2) 0.78 (0.70 to 0.86) 0.56 (0.39 to 0.69)
Learn new gadget 209 2.30 (1.83 to 2.89) 0.22 (0.11 to 0.43) 10.7 (4.60 to 24.7) 0.74 (0.68 to 0.81) 0.49 (0.36 to 0.60)
Learn in general 217 2.60 (2.01 to 3.37) 0.27 (0.15 to 0.47) 9.79 (4.62 to 20.7) 0.75 (0.69 to 0.81) 0.50 (0.37 to 0.62)
Recall difference place 212 1.76 (1.45 to 2.13) 0.27 (0.13 to 0.55) 6.52 (2.87 to 15.0) 0.69 (0.62 to 0.75) 0.37 (0.24 to 0.49)
Forget where left things 244 1.34 (1.18 to 1.52) 0.28 (0.12 to 0.66) 4.78 (1.87 to 12.2) 0.61 (0.56 to 0.67) 0.23 (0.13 to 0.33)
Any functioning problems 217 1.48 (1.27 to 1.74) 0.28 (0.13 to 0.61) 5.28 (2.18 to 12.7) 0.64 (0.59 to 0.70) 0.39 (0.24 to 0.53)
Planning 149 4.35 (2.78 to 6.83) 0.29 (0.17 to 0.49) 15.0 (6.49 to 34.8) 0.79 (0.72 to 0.87) 0.59 (0.42 to 0.71)
Recall where kept 211 3.23 (2.32 to 4.50) 0.35 (0.22 to 0.55) 9.27 (4.56 to 18.9) 0.75 (0.68 to 0.82) 0.50 (0.35 to 0.63)

AUC = area under receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve. DOR = diagnostic odds ratio. LR− = negative likelihood ratio. LR+ = positive likelihood ratio.

a

For details of clinical items see Appendix 1.

The results from the stepwise procedures using all or selected index items can be found in Table 4. There were 10 models meeting the criteria of predictive value and goodness of fit. All were better in terms of specificity than sensitivity and all but one had an AUC value ≥0.90. It was judged that the best overall model comprised problems with personal finance and planning (AUC 0.92, 95% CI = 0.86 to 0.97), but the model comprising personal finance and reasoning (AUC 0.86, 95% CI = 0.80 to 0.93) had almost as good a performance profile based on a larger sample size.

Table 4.

Diagnostic utility of the best models

Modela n GOFb LR+ (95% CI) LR− (95% CI) DOR (95% CI) AUC (95% CI) Sensitivity (95% CI) Specificity (95% CI)
Finance + Planning 114 0.95 23.7 (5.88 to 95.6) 0.41 (0.27 to 0.62) 57.8 (13.3 to -) 0.92 (0.86 to 0.97) 60.0 (42.1 to 76.1) 97.5 (91.2 to 99.7)
Finance + Reasoning + Muddled + Money 110 0.89 0.74 (0.61 to 0.90) ∞ (6.48 to ∞) 0.92 (0.86 to 0.98) 25.7 (12.5 to 43.3) 100 (95.2 to 100)
Finance + Reasoning + Muddled + Maths + Money 100 0.74 0.73 (0.59 to 0.90) ∞ (6.25 to ∞) 0.93 (0.87 to 0.99) 27.3 (13.3 to 45.5) 100 (94.6 to 100)
Urinary incontinence + Planning + Maths 106 0.66 0.63 (0.48 to 0.82) ∞ (11.0 to ∞) 0.95 (0.91 to 1.00) 37.5 (21.1 to 56.3) 100 (95.1 to 100)
Finance + Reasoning + Muddled + Maths 102 0.65 0.61 (0.46 to 0.80) ∞ (11.1 to ∞) 0.92 (0.85 to 0.98) 39.4 (22.9 to 57.9) 100 (94.8 to 100)
Finance + Reasoning 176 0.65 0.55 (0.42 to 0.72) ∞ (27.9 to ∞) 0.86 (0.80 to 0.93) 45.2 (29.9 to 61.3) 100 (97.3 to 100)
Finance + Planning + Maths 100 0.57 38.3 (5.34 to 274) 0.44 (0.30 to 0.66) 86.1 (13.2 to ∞) 0.93 (0.88 to 0.99) 56.3 (37.7 to 73.6) 98.5 (92.1 to 100)
Finance + Planning + Maths + Kept + Learn 97 0.55 31.9 (4.41 to 231) 0.52 (0.37 to 0.74) ∞ 60.9 (9.35 to ∞) 0.95 (0.89 to 1.00) 48.4 (30.2 to 66.9) 98.5 (91.8 to 100)
Finance + Reasoning + Muddled 116 0.54 0.64 (0.50 to 0.82) ∞ (11.3 to ∞) 0.91 (0.84 to 0.97) 36.1 (20.8 to 53.8) 100 (95.5 to 100)
Finance + Planning + Maths + Recall 97 0.40 31.9 (4.41 to 231) 0.52 (0.37 to 0.74) 60.9 (9.35 to ∞) 0.95 (0.89 to 1.00) 48.4 (30.2 to 66.9) 98.5 (91.8 to 100)

AUC = area under receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve. DOR = diagnostic odds ratio. LR− = negative likelihood ratio. LR+ = positive likelihood ratio. ∞ = infinity.

a

IQCODE items Question ‘Compared with 10 years ago how is this person at’ Finances = personal finance; Muddled = often muddled; Money = shopping money; Maths = everyday maths; Kept = recall where kept; Learn = learn in general. See also Appendix 1.

b

Goodness of fit (GOF) assessed using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic where a higher P-value indicates a better goodness of fit.

Supplementary analyses when excluding the seven men who had an existing diagnosis of dementia, produced similar results for specificity, but sensitivity was lower (up to 20 percentage points). When analysing equivocal findings as normal the results were almost identical (to two decimal places) to the main analysis. Multiple imputation also resulted in similar results to the main analysis with specificity within 10% of the main estimates, but sensitivity often lower (up to 20 percentage points, details available from the authors). The AUC was consistent between imputed analyses and main.

DISCUSSION

Summary

This study found that combinations of simple questions had comparable or better diagnostic utility than the MMSE, with high utility for ruling-in a diagnosis, in men who were cognitively screened. Abnormal gait and primitive reflexes were the most useful physical findings. Some individual items were highly specific (for example, reasoning), whereas others were very sensitive (any memory difficulty reported by subject), but a combined approach enhanced their value.

Strengths and limitations

CaPS was not designed as a diagnostic test accuracy study, but, for the present study, a sample was selected with a high prior probability of some cognitive impairment from a larger population-based sample, with a broad spectrum of disease. A recognised reference standard was used, applied in consensus by experienced clinicians and a wide range of questionnaire items as well as neurological assessment were examined. Several models were tested that combined the best items. The reference standard was subject to incorporation bias (or circularity31) as results of the index tests could have been used in reaching a final diagnosis, but this is a common problem with clinical definitions of dementia. The estimates for diagnostic utility require validation in further studies, although the index test items were generally derived from well-validated instruments or standard clinical practice. When multiple-imputation was used to deal with the issue of missing data, there was minimal change in the specificity, but the sensitivity of the clinical items was, in general, lower. One limitation is that the study findings cannot be generalised to women, and there may be sex-related and socially-determined patterns in the performance of some index tests. Although the authors examined for interactions, they were underpowered to detect them.

The estimates of diagnostic utility may not generalise to other populations, with different prevalence of disease, as sampling was done on the basis of cognitive testing. The overall utility (AUC) of ‘any memory difficulty’ reported by either subject or informant was close to chance, suggesting that the sampling strategy oversampled men with cognitive impairment and hence would overestimate the PPV but would have underestimated the specificity.32 Other investigators have found that subjective memory problems are inconsistently associated with dementia.33 The estimates for diagnostic utility are likely to be overoptimistic as they result from stepwise selection procedures; some items may have been identified as being diagnostically useful by chance.

Comparison with existing literature

To the authors knowledge, this is the first study that has investigated the utility of such a broad range of clinical items for diagnosing dementia in a community-based sample. The results are supported by findings from other investigators who demonstrated that most diagnostic information in primary care was gained from age, functional assessment,34 and the clock drawing test (AUC 0.92).35 The diagnostic utility of an abnormal neurological examination36 and urinary incontinence37 were examined, which have been shown previously to be associated with dementia. Items on everyday maths, personal finances, and reasoning were all derived from IQCODE,26 and were previously found to have modest utility (AUC 0.85, 0.82, 0.82, respectively) in a case–control study in secondary care.38 As a whole, the IQCODE is sensitive (0.80) and specific (0.84) for diagnosing dementia,39 and functioning items have been found to be more discriminatory than memory items,40 which is in keeping with the present results.

Implications for research and practice

The current policy in the UK is to encourage GPs to diagnose dementia in typical elderly cases without referral11 unless there are specific reasons (for example, young age) that require a specialist opinion. Avoiding overdiagnosis (high specificity) may be more important than finding all possible cases (high sensitivity), as currently there are no drugs that modify the natural history of dementia41 and there are potential disadvantages from overdiagnosis.1,11,42

In this study, simple questions had high post-test probability of unspecified dementia. In principle, this raises the possibility that GPs who are considering dementia after evaluating a person with symptoms might be able to make the diagnosis, without specialist input, using relatively simple adjunct questions. GPs who are being asked to diagnose dementia in primary care might find measures of functional performance more useful than standard tests of cognition.

These findings, if replicated in other settings, would potentially be of clinical value in the assessment of patients who are frail and older, a group in whom post-mortem studies indicate a weaker association between neuropathology and clinical presentation.7 It is not the intention that these questions should be used in isolation to diagnose dementia, but rather that they have added value after routine clinical assessment. This should not preclude the consideration of reversible causes of cognitive impairment (for example, infection or depression), the use of further investigations to exclude pathologies (for example, space-occupying-lesion) that mimic dementia, or specialist referral for dementia subtype diagnosis. Such a two-pronged approach would enable GP diagnosis for some patients, with advanced work-up and referral being reserved for scenarios where diagnostic uncertainty persists.43 The utility of the observations in routine clinical settings requires further research. A prospective diagnostic test accuracy study is being conducted to validate these preliminary findings in men and women, and to quantify the incremental value of tests in the context of GP clinical suspicion of possible dementia.

Acknowledgments

Professor Shah Ebrahim obtained funding for and helped design CaPS phase 5. We thank the reviewers and Professor Sarah Purdy for providing helpful comments that improved the manuscript. This study was presented at a UK academic general practice trainees conference, Oxford, April 2014.

Appendix 1. Details of items in index test evaluation

Item (full details) Referred to in manuscript as
Initial questions: asked of both subject and informant
  Have any difficulty with your memory? Any memory difficulty
  Forget where you left things more than you used to? Forget where left things
  Forget what you were going to do, on the way to doing it? Forget what going to do
  Forget names of close friends or relatives? Forget names
  Ever forgotten your way or got lost in own neighbourhood? Get lost
  Forget what said & ask same question over & over? Repeat question
  Aware of memory problem Aware of problem
  Difficulty finding word you want to say? Word finding difficulty
  Sometimes say the wrong word? Wrong word

Interviewer observations
  Self-neglect Interviewer: Self-neglect
  Uncooperative behaviour Interviewer: Uncooperative
  Suspiciousness Interviewer: Suspiciousnessa
  Hostile/irritable Interviewer: Hostilea
  Incongruent/bizarre Interviewer: Bizarrea
  Slow/underactive Interviewer: Slow
  Restless Interviewer: Restless
  Anxious out of proportion to situation Interviewer: Anxious
  Looks depressed Interviewer: depressed
  Emotional lability Interviewer: Labilea
  Flat affect Interviewer: Flat
  Appears to be hallucinating Interviewer: Hallucinatinga
  Rapid speech Interviewer: Rapid speech
  Slow speech Interviewer: Slow speech
  No spontaneous speech, restricted in quantity Interviewer: limited speech
  Speech rambling, incoherent, irrelevant Interviewer: Speech rambling
  Speech slurred Interviewer: Speech slurred
  Perseverating Interviewer: Perseveratinga
  No insight Interviewer: No insight
  Clouding of consciousness Interviewer: Clouding of consciousnessa
  Peculiar use of terms Interviewer: Peculiar terms
  Speaking to self Interviewer: Speaking to self
  Impaired ability to focus, shift or sustain attention Interviewer: Impaired focus
  Impaired judgement of situations or persons Interviewer: Impaired judgement
  Hypochondriacal preoccupations with somatic discomfort Interviewer: Hypochondriacala
  Repetitive conversation Interviewer: Repetitive
  Spontaneously talking about distant past Interviewer: Distant past

Examination Findings
  Other significant findings Other significant findings
  Cranial Nerve abnormality Cranial nerve defect
  Field defect Field defect
  Horner Syndrome Horner’s
  Acuity Acuity
  Ophthalmoplegia Ophthalmoplegia
  VII cranial nerve deficit Facial nerve palsy
  Hearing difficulty Hearing difficulty
  Pseudo-bulbar palsy Pseudo-bulbar palsy
  Bulbar palsy Bulbar palsy
  Speech disturbance: Dysarthria Dysarthria
  Gait disturbance any Any Gait disturbance
  Gait disturbance: Parkinsonian/Apraxic Parkinsonian gait
  Gait disturbance: Spastic Spastic gait
  Gait disturbance: Ataxic Ataxic gait
  Gait disturbance: Antalgic Antalgic gait

Pyramidal Signs (not clinically due to myelopathy): on right, left or absent Significant pyramidal signs
  Drift Drift
  Weakness Weakness
  Hypertonia Hypertonia
  Hyperreflexia Hyperreflexia
  Babinski Babinski
  Extrapyramidal Signs Significant Extrapyramidal Signs
  Rigidity Rigidity
  Bradykinesia Bradykinesia
  Tremor Tremor
  Postural instability Postural instability
  Asymmetric deficit Asymmetric deficit
  Central Sensory disturbance (not peripheral nerve) Sensory disturbance
  Cerebellar signs Cerebellar signs
  Other localising signs Other localising signs
  Primitive reflexes Any primitive reflexes
  Palmomental Palmomental
  Pout Pout
  Grasp Grasp

IQCode. Compared with 10 years ago how is this person at:
  Remembering things about family and friends (for example, birthdays, occupations, addresses) Family and friends
  Remembering things that have happened recently Recall recent events
  Recalling conversations a few days later Recall conversations
  Remembering own address and telephone number Recall own address
  Remembering what day and month it is Recall day
  Remembering where things are usually kept Recall where kept
  Remembering where to find things put in a different place from usual Recall difference place
  Working familiar household appliances Work appliances
  Learning to use new gadget or appliance around the house Learn new gadget
  Learning new things in general Learn in general
  Following a story in a book or on TV Follow story
  Making decisions on everyday matters Decisions
  Handling money for shopping Shopping money
  Handling personal finance (for example, pension, bank) Personal finance
  Handling everyday arithmetic (for example, how much food to buy, time between visits from friends/family Everyday maths
  Using intelligence to understand what’s going on and to reason things through Reasoning

Everyday Activities (asked of both subject and informant)
  Any problems with daily activities Any ADL problems
  Difficulty feeding self Feeding
  Change in eating habit Appetite
  Difficulty dressing Dressing
  Needing assistance with bathing/washing/toileting Toileting
  Decreased attention to personal hygiene Hygiene

Physical Symptoms (informant)
  Physical symptoms (any) Any physical symptoms
  Urinary Urinary incontinence
  Faecal Faecal incontinence
  Tendency to fall Falls
  Syncope/unexplained loss of consciousness Syncope

General Functioning report (informant)
  General functioning any problems Any functioning problems
  Tends to talk about distant past rather than present Distant past
  Loss of special skill or hobby Hobby
  Thinking often muddled Often muddled
  Greater difficulty thinking and planning ahead Planning
  Difficulty concentrating, more distractible Concentrating
  Talking more than previously Talk more
  Talking less than previously Talk less
  Repeating words or phrases Repeat words
  Fails to realise extent of any problems No insight

Personality/emotion/behaviour (informant)
  Any personality change Any personality change
  Emotional lability Labile
  Emotional blunting Blunting
  Lack of motivation and spontaneous behaviour Unmotivated
  Breaches of social etiquette/disinhibited behaviour Disinhibited
  Perservative/stereotyped behaviour Perseveration
  Sleep pattern disturbance Sleep disturbed
  Aggression Aggressive
  Narrowed preoccupations Narrowed preoccupations
  Mental rigidity Mental rigidity
  Hyperorality (increased oral behaviours) Hyperorality
  Auditory hallucinations Auditory hallucinations
  Visual hallucinations Visual hallucinations
  Would (Has) subject cope (d) alone without partner/cohabitee? Unable cope alone

Symptom onset and progression
  Onset Months since onset: more than 12
  Course of symptoms Course not improving

Symptom fluctuation Symptom fluctuation (any)
  Hour to hour Hour to hour
  Day to night Day to night
  Day to day Day to day
  Week to week Week to weeka
  Accommodation not own home Accommodation not own home
a

Indicates features which were not identified in any men and so diagnostic utility could not be calculated. ADL = activities of daily living.

Funding

The main Caerphilly study was funded by an intramural grant to Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit (Cardiff). The Alzheimer’s Society funded the phase 5 follow-up. The sponsors had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; and preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript.

Ethical approval

Ethical approval for phase 5 was provided by Gwent Research Ethics Committee (01/69).

Provenance

Freely submitted; externally peer reviewed.

Competing interests

The authors have declared no competing interests.

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