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. 2015 Aug 6;72:877–908. doi: 10.1007/s00285-015-0918-8

On the characteristic equation λ=α1+(α2+α3λ)e-λ and its use in the context of a cell population model

Odo Diekmann 1, Philipp Getto 2, Yukihiko Nakata 3,
PMCID: PMC4751237  PMID: 26245246

Abstract

In this paper we characterize the stability boundary in the (α1,α2)-plane, for fixed α3 with -1<α3<+1, for the characteristic equation from the title. Subsequently we describe a nonlinear cell population model involving quiescence and show that this characteristic equation governs the (in)stability of the nontrivial steady state. By relating the parameters of the cell model to the αi, we are able to derive some biological conclusions.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00285-015-0918-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Mathematics Subject Classification: 34K20, 37N25, 45D05, 65L03, 92D25

Introduction

The characteristic equation

λ=α1+α2e-λ 1.1

for λC, with parameters α1,α2R, corresponds to the delay differential equation

x˙(t)=α1x(t)+α2x(t-1). 1.2

The fact that (1.1) can have, for α1,α2<0, solutions with Reλ>0 therefore leads to the dictum that delayed negative feedback can lead to oscillatory instability.

Equation (1.1) can be analyzed in great detail (see e.g. Section III.3 in Èl’sgol’ts and Norkin 1973; Hayes 1950; Chapter 13.7 in Bellman and Cooke 1963; Chapter XI in Diekmann et al. 1991). The outcome can be conveniently summarized in the diagram depicted in Fig. 1 (corresponding to what Èl’sgol’ts and Norkin 1973 call the method of D-partitions; also see Breda 2012).

Fig. 1.

Fig. 1

The numbers specify the number of roots of (1.1) with Reλ>0 for (α1,α2) in the corresponding region of the parameter plane

In the context of specific models, (1.2) usually arises by linearization of a nonlinear equation around a steady state. In such a situation α1,α2 are (sometimes rather complicated) functions of the original model parameters. As emphasized in Chapter XI in Diekmann et al. (1991) and the recent didactical note (Diekmann and Korvasova 2013), one can combine the detailed knowledge embodied in Fig. 1 with an analysis of the parameter map, that relates the original parameters to (α1,α2), in order to obtain stability and bifurcation results for the steady state of the nonlinear equation. Even if the aim is to perform a one-parameter Hopf bifurcation study, it is much more efficient to derive first the two parameter picture of Fig. 1, see Diekmann and Korvasova (2013). We also refer to Insperger and Stépán (2011), Kuang (1993), Michiels and Niculescu (2014), Stépán (1989) for a systematic approach to deriving stability conditions for steady states of delay differential equations via an analysis of characteristic equations and to Cheng and Lin (2009) for potentially useful general theory.

In Sect. 3 we shall formulate a model for a population of cells that can either be on the way to division or quiescent. The model is very close in spirit to the one formulated and studied by Gyllenberg and Webb in their pioneering paper (Gyllenberg and Webb 1990). But our formulation is in terms of delay equations, more precisely a system consisting of one Renewal Equation (RE) and one Delay Differential Equation (DDE) (Diekmann and Gyllenberg 2012; Diekmann et al. 2010; 2007/2008), rather than in terms of PDE as in Gyllenberg and Webb (1990). The delay equation formulation enables a relatively painless derivation of the characteristic equation whose roots govern the (in)stability of the (unique) nontrivial steady state. In the relatively simple case considered here (see Alarcón et al. 2014; Borges et al. 2014 for a more general model formulation), the RE degenerates into a difference equation in continuous time! The characteristic equation corresponding to the linearization about the nontrivial steady state takes the form

λ=α1+α2+α3λe-λ. 1.3

The goal of the present paper is to investigate how the picture of Fig. 1 deforms if we let α3 grow away from zero (but restrict to -1<α3<+1, for reasons explained around Lemma 2.2 below). See the supplementary material for a movie showing how the curves depicted in Fig. 1 move in the (α1,α2) plane when α3 ranges from -1 to +1. Our main conclusion is that, from a qualitative point of view, nothing changes at all.

The stability region S(α3) in the (α1,α2)-plane

Our aim is to characterize

S(α3)=α1,α2:(1.3)has no rootsλwith Reλ0 2.1

by a precise description of its boundary. We shall show in Theorem 2.1 that this boundary consists of the half-line

L(α3)=α1,α2:α2=-α1,α11-α3, 2.2

corresponding to λ=0 being a root of (1.3), and the curve

C0(α3)=c1ω,α3,c2ω,α3:0ω<π 2.3

where

c1(ω,α3)=ωsinωcosω-α3, 2.4a
c2(ω,α3)=ωsinωα3cosω-1, 2.4b

corresponding to λ=±iω,0ω<π, being a root of (1.3). Note that L(α3) and C0(α3) intersect in (1-α3,α3-1), corresponding to λ=0 being a double root, see Lemma 2.4 below. The stability region S(α3) is depicted in Fig. 2.

Fig. 2.

Fig. 2

Stability region S(α3) for the characteristic equation (1.3). The boundary of S(α3) consists of the half-line L(α3) and the curve C0(α3)

Theorem 2.1

Let -1<α3<1. S(α3) is the connected open subset of R2 that contains {(α1,0):α1<0} and has L(α3)C0(α3) as its boundary.

The proof has quite a few components, so we build it up gradually by deriving auxiliary results. Our first step is to exclude that roots can enter the right half plane at λ= when α1 and α2 are varied. This leads to the constraint -1<α3<+1.

Lemma 2.2

Let |α3|<1 and let λ be a root of (1.3) with Reλ0. Then

λα1+α21-α3. 2.5

Proof

We write (1.3) in the form

λ1-α3e-λ=α1+α2e-λ

and take absolute values at both sides. Using

α1+α2e-λα1+α2e-Reλα1+α2α3e-λ=α3e-Reλα3<11-z1-z>0whenz<1

we obtain the estimate (2.5).

To further illustrate the importance of the restriction |α3|<1, we formulate a corollary of Theorem 1.1 in Chapter 3 of Kuang (1993):

Lemma 2.3

When |α3|>1, Eq. (1.3) has infinitely many roots in the right half plane Reλ>0.

We refer to Lemma 2.12 below for a description of the limiting behaviour for α31 and α3-1. In order to facilitate various formulations, we adopt the convention that in the rest of this section the inequalities

-1<α3<1 2.6

hold, unless stated otherwise.

Lemma 2.2 implies (by way of Rouché’s Theorem, see Lemma 2.8 in Chapter XI of Diekmann et al. 1991) that at the boundary of S(α3) the Eq. (1.3) has either a root λ=0 or a pair of roots λ=±iω,ω>0.

Lemma 2.4

  1. λ=0 is a root of (1.3) iff α1+α2=0. It is a double root iff in addition α2=α3-1 (and a triple root iff in addition α3=-1).

  2. λ=±iω,ω>0 is a complex conjugate pair of roots of (1.3) iff
    α1,α2=c1ω,α3,c2ω,α3
    with ci defined by (2.4).
  3. limω0(c1(ω,α3),c2(ω,α3))=(1-α3,α3-1).

Proof

  1. Substituting λ=0 into (1.3) we obtain 0=α1+α2. Taylor expanding e-λ we can write (1.3) in the form
    λ=α1+α2+α3-α2λ+α22-α3λ2+O(λ3)
    and conclude that for α1+α2=0 the root λ=0 is a double root iff α2=α3-1 and a triple root iff in addition α3=-1.
  2. In terms of real variables μ and ω such that
    λ=μ+iω 2.7
    the complex equation (1.3) amounts to the two real equations Gi=0,i=1,2, where G1 corresponds to the real part and is given by
    G1(α1,α2,μ,ω)=-μ+α1+α2+α3μcosωe-μ+α3ωsinωe-μ 2.8
    while G2 corresponds to the imaginary part and is given by
    G2(α1,α2,μ,ω)=-ω-α2+α3μsinωe-μ+α3ωcosωe-μ. 2.9
    For μ=0 the equations reduce to
    α1+α2cosω+α3ωsinω=0,-ω-α2sinω+α3ωcosω=0.
    Solving the second for α2 we obtain α2=c2(ω,α3). Next we can solve the first for α1. This yields α1=c1(ω,α3).
  3. Since limω0ωsinω=1 and cos0=1, it is clear that c1(ω,α3)1-α3 and c2(ω,α3)α3-1 for ω0.

Our next step is to identify for any α3 at least one point in the (α1,α2)-plane that belongs to S(α3). Clearly Eq. (1.3) is very simple if (α1,α2)=(0,0), but this point lies on L(α3). The idea is to focus on a neighborhood, i.e., first consider (α1,α2)=(0,0) and next perturb.

Lemma 2.5

  1. For (α1,α2)=(0,0) the roots of (1.3) are given by λ=0 and, if α30,
    λ=lnα3+2kπi,kZ,ifα3>0,λ=ln-α3+2k+1πi,kZ,ifα3<0,
    while for α3=0, λ=0 is the one and only root.
  2. Consider α2=0 and |α1| small. The only root of (1.3) that can possibly lie in the right half plane is given by
    λ=α11-α3+O(α12).
    As a consequence, the points (α1,0) with α1<0, |α1| small, belong to S(α3).

Proof

  1. For (α1,α2)=(0,0) Eq. (1.3) reduces to λ=α3λe-λ. So λ=0 is a root and all other roots satisfy 1=α3e-λ.

  2. So for (α1,α2)=(0,0) we have one root λ=0 on the imaginary axis and, if α30, countably many other roots that are at a uniformly positive distance away from the imaginary axis in the left half plane. According to the Implicit Function Theorem, there exists for small α1 a root
    λ=α11-α3+O(α12)
    if we keep α2=0, and this is the only root in a small ball B around λ=0. According to a variant of Rouché’s Theorem, see Lemma 2.8 of Chapter XI of Diekmann et al. (1991), there are for small α1 no roots in the open set {λ:Reλ>0,λB¯}. (Note that here we use Lemma 2.2 to compensate for the non-compactness of the closure of this set.)

As we saw in Part 2 of the lemma above, it is helpful to know how the root λ=0 moves in C if we move (α1,α2) away from the line α1+α2=0. The following result shows that if we cross L(α3) transversally, away from its endpoint, from below to above, a real root of (1.3) crosses the imaginary axis from left to right.

Lemma 2.6

Suppose that [-ε¯,ε¯]R2;ε(α1,α2)(ε), for some ε¯>0, is C1 with (α1,α2)(0)=(γ,-γ) for some γ1-α3. Then (1.3), for small ε, has a real root λ, which is of the form

λ=α1(0)+α2(0)1-α3-γε+O(ε2).

If additionally (α1,α2)(0)(1,1)t>0 and γ<1-α3, then λ<0 for small negative ε and λ>0 for small positive ε.

We omit the elementary proof.

In a similar spirit, we want to know how the roots λ=±iω move in C if we move (α1,α2) away from the curve C0(α3). In Section XI.2 of Diekmann et al. (1991) it is explained that the crucial quantity is the sign of detM, where

M=G1α1G1α2G2α1G2α2α1,α2,0,ω

with G1 defined by (2.8) and G2 by (2.9). So in the present case we have

M=1cosω0-sinω

and detM=-sinω<0 for 0<ω<π. In order to define what we mean by “to the left” and “to the right”, we provide C0(α3) with the orientation of increasing ω. According to Proposition 2.13 in Chapter XI of Diekmann et al. (1991), we can draw the following conclusion.

Lemma 2.7

When we cross C0(α3) from right to left at a point corresponding to ω>0, a pair of complex conjugate roots of (1.3) crosses the imaginary axis from left to right.

Motivated by Lemma 2.4(2) we define for k=1,2, the intervals

Ik-=2k-1π,2kπ 2.10a
Ik+=2kπ,2k+1π 2.10b

and the curves

Ck±(α3)=c1ω,α3,c2ω,α3:ωIk± 2.11

with ci defined by (2.4). In the next lemma we collect some observations that help to understand the shape of the curves C0,Ck±.

Lemma 2.8

For ci(ω,α3),i=1,2 defined by (2.4) we have

  1. c1ω(ω,α3)<0 for ω>0,ωmπ,m=1,2,,

  2. c1(ω,α3)-asωmπ+asωmπ,m=1,2,,

  3. c2(ω,α3)>0onIk-<0on[0,π)and onIk+,

  4. c1c2(·,α3) is periodic with period 2π and decreases from +1 to -1 on Ik- and increases from -1 to +1 on [0,π)and onIk+,

  5. c1c2(ω+π,α3)=-c1c2(ω,-α3).

Proof

  1. c1ωω,α3=sinωcosω-ω+α3ωcosω-sinωsin2ω.
    Now note that
    c1ωω,-1=cosω+1sinω-ωsin2ω<0forω>0,ωmπ
    and that
    c1ωω,+1=cosω-1sinω+ωsin2ω<0forω>0,ωmπ.
    Since c1ω is a linear function of α3, it follows that for -1<α3<+1 the inequality
    c1ωω,α3<0
    holds for ω>0,ωmπ.
  2. At ω=mπ with m odd, sinω switches from positive to negative values and cosω-α3=-1-α3<0. For even m, sinω switches from negative to positive values, but cosω-α3=1-α3>0.

  3. Since α3cosω-1<0, the sign of c2 is the opposite of the sign of sinω.

  4. c1c2ω,α3=cosω-α3α3cosω-1
    is obviously 2π-periodic.
    ddωc1c2ω,α3=sinω1-α32α3cosω-12,
    so c1c2 is an increasing function of ω on intervals on which sinω>0 and a decreasing function of ω on intervals on which sinω<0. Moreover
    c1c2mπ,α3=-1m-α3-1mα3-1=-1m+1.
  5. c1c2(ω+π,α3)=cosω+π-α3α3cosω+π-1=-cosω-α3-α3cosω-1=-cosω+α3-α3cosω-1=-c1c2ω,-α3.

Note that Lemma 2.8(1) implies that the curves C0, Ck± can also be parameterized by α1. If we do so for C0, we can in Lemma 2.7 replace “left” by “below” and “right” by “above”, just like in Lemma 2.6.

Lemma 2.9

  1. There are no intersections of the curves C0,Ck± .

  2. The curves Ck- are situated in the quarter plane
    α1,α2:α2>α1,
    while the curves C0 and Ck+ are situated in the quarter plane
    α1,α2:α2<-α1,
    except for the starting point of C0 which lies on the boundary.
  3. The curves C0,Ck± are ordered as shown in Fig. 1.

Proof

  1. Assume that for some ω1 and ω2 it holds that
    c1ω1,α3,c2ω1,α3=c1ω2,α3,c2ω2,α3
    then necessarily
    c1ω1,α3c2ω1,α3=c1ω2,α3c2ω2,α3
    i.e.,
    cosω1-α3α3cosω1-1=cosω2-α3α3cosω2-1.
    Multiplying this identity by (α3cosω1-1)(α3cosω2-1) we find that necessarily cosω1=cosω2. By substituting cosω1=cosω2 in the identity c1(ω1,α3)=c1(ω2,α3) we deduce that in addition the identity
    ω1sinω1=ω2sinω2
    has to hold. But cosω1=cosω2 also implies that sinω1=±sinω2, so we arrive at the conclusion that ω1=±ω2. Since we parameterize with ω0, the only possibility is ω1=ω2.
  2. From Lemma 2.8(4) we know that for ω0
    -1<c1c2<1.
    If c2>0 this amounts to -c2<c1<c2, i.e., c2>c1 and c2>-c1. If c2<0 it amounts to -c2>c1>c2, i.e., c2<c1 and c2<-c1. In case of C0 the inequality -1<c1c2 holds for ω>0 but not for ω=0, where the inequality becomes equality.
  3. Intersections of the curves with the α2-axis are characterized by cosω=α3, cf (2.4a). So the corresponding value of α2 equals
    c2ω,α3=ωsinωα32-1
    with sinω=1-α32 for C0 and Ck+ and sinω=-1-α32 for Ck-. Accordingly the ordering is determined by ω, so by k.

At last we are ready to present the

Proof of Theorem 2.1

From Lemma 2.5(2) we know that at least a part of the negative α1-axis belongs to S(α3). As noted just before Lemma 2.4, the a priori estimate of Lemma 2.2 provides the compactness needed to apply Rouché’s theorem in order to deduce that S(α3) is to a large extent characterized by (1.3) having a root on the imaginary axis. In other words, S(α3) is contained in the union of the line α2=-α1 and the curves C0, Ck±, cf. Lemmas 2.4(1) and 2.4(2) and the definitions (2.3) and (2.11). On account of Lemma 2.9 we can now conclude that the connected component of S(α3) containing the negative α1-axis has L(α3)C0(α3) as its boundary.

In principle S(α3) might have other components. Indeed, roots that enter the right half plane, when crossing L(α3) or C0(α3), could return to the left half plane as one of the curves Ck± is crossed. There are at least two ways to see that, actually, this does not happen. The first is by extending Lemma 2.7 to the curves Ck±; more precisely, by noting that the sign of detM is opposite to the sign of sinω and that accordingly more and more roots move into the right half plane if we keep decreasing α2 after crossing C0 or if we keep increasing α2 after crossing L. So also the numbers shown in Fig. 1 extend to -1<α3<1.

The second way is by showing that the roots that enter the right half plane upon crossing C0(α3) remain “caught” in the strip {λ:|Imλ|<π}, so cannot possibly return to the left half plane when one of the curves Ck±(α3) is crossed. Indeed, let λ=μ+iω be a root of (1.3) and assume that μ0 and sinω=0. Then necessarily cosω=±1 and hence the equation G2=0 (recall (2.9)) reads

-ω±α3ωe-μ=0

showing that either ω=0 or e-μ=±1α3. But since μ0 we have e-μ1 and since -1<α3<1 we have |±1α3|>1, so e-μ=±1α3 is not possible. (What can, and does happen though, is that they become real and that subsequently one of the two real roots returns to the left half plane when the parameter point crosses the line α2=-α1 from below to above at a point with α1>1-α3, cf. Lemma 2.6.)

We conclude that (1.3) has a root λ with Reλ>0 if (α1,α2) is in the connected open subset of R2 that has L(α3)C0(α3) as its boundary and that does not contain the negative α1-axis.

It follows from Theorem 2.1 and Lemma 2.9(2) that the set

Su:=α1,α2:α1α2<-α1,α1<0 2.12

belongs to S(α3) for -1<α3<1 (the index u is meant to express “uniformly” in α3). By analyzing the limiting behavior of S(α3) for α31 and α3-1, we shall show that this is sharp, i.e., Su is the largest set that belongs to S(α3) for -1<α3<1. Again we need some auxiliary results.

Lemma 2.10

  1. For -12α3<1 the inequality
    c2ωω,α3<0
    holds for 0<ω<π.
  2. For -1<α3<-12 there exists θ(α3)(0,π) such that
    c2ωω,α3>0for0<ω<θα3c2ωω,α3<0forθα3<ω<π.
  3. θ(α3)π for α3-1.

Proof

  1. c2ωω,α3=h(ω,α3)sin2ω
    with
    h(ω,α3):=α3sinωcosω-ω+ωcosω-sinω. 2.13
    Now note that h(0,α3)=0 and that
    hω(ω,α3)=-sinω2α3sinω+ω<0for0<ω<π
    when α3-12.
  2. If α3<-12 we find from the above expression for hω that h increases for small positive ω and hence takes positive values for small positive ω. Since h(π,α3)=-(1+α3)π<0, h changes sign at least once on (0,π) and the exact number of sign changes of h must be an odd number. If h changes sign three or more times, the derivative hω must also change sign at least three times. Now hω(ω,α3)=0 requires that 2α3sinω+ω=0. We claim that whenever 2α3sinω+ω=0 then necessarily ddω[2α3sinω+ω]>0. It follows that 2α3sinω+ω can change sign only once on (0,π), that the same holds for hω and, therefore, for h. So h changes sign exactly once and since c2ω(ω,α3)=h(ω,α3)sin2ω so does c2ω. It remains to prove the claim. First observe that ωcosω-sinω<0 since the left hand side equals zero for ω=0 and ddω(ωcosω-sinω)=-ωsinω<0. Next note that
    ddω2α3sinω+ω=2α3cosω+1=2α3sinωcosω+sinωsinω.
    So if 2α3sinω+ω=0 then
    ddω2α3sinω+ω=-ωcosω+sinωsinω>0.
  3. hω,-1=-sinωcosω+ω+ωcosω-sinω=1+cosωω-sinω
    and both factors are positive on (0,π).

For α31 the point (1-α3,α3-1), where L(α3) and C0(α3) meet, moves to (0, 0) and any point (c1(ω,α3),c2(ω,α3)) on C0(α3) moves to ω(cosω-1)sinω(1,1) on the line α1=α2. The fact that for c1c2 one cannot interchange the limits ω0 and α31 is irrelevant, since the lines α1=α2 and α1=-α2 intersect in (0, 0). Note that ω(cosω-1)sinω decreases strictly from 0 to - as ω increases from 0 to π, see Lemma 2.8(1).

For α3-1, the point (1-α3,α3-1) moves to (2,-2) and any point (c1(ω,α3), c2(ω,α3)) on C0(α3) moves to ω(cosω+1)sinω(1,-1) on the line α1=-α2. In this case, one cannot interchange the limits ωπ and α3-1. For α3 slightly above -1, there is a small interval (θ(α3),π) such that (c1(ω,α3),c2(ω,α3)) moves from close to (0, 0) for ω=θ(α3) all the way to -(1,1) for ω=π, see Lemma 2.10. So the limit set of C0(α3) is the union of {(γ,γ):-<γ0} and {(γ,-γ):0γ2}. Or, in other words, S(α3) converges to Su, but if we use ω to parameterize the C0(α3) part of the boundary, the convergence is rather non-uniform. We summarize our conclusions in

Theorem 2.11

  1. Su=-1<α3<1S(α3)

  2. If (α1,α2)S(α3) for all α3 in an interval of either the form (-1,-1+ε) or of the form (1-ε,1) for some ε>0, then (α1,α2)Su.

For completeness, we formulate a result about the limiting behaviour of the curves Ck±. As a first indication of what to expect, recall from the proof of Lemma 2.9(3) that the intersection with the α2-axis has

c2ω,α3=ωsinωα32-1

and conclude that the intersection point converges to (0, 0). As in the proof of Lemma (2.10)(2) one can show that c2ω changes sign exactly once on Ik± defined in (2.10). So geometrically it seems clear that the bounds from Lemma 2.9(2) become sharp in the limit as |α3| converges to 1. We now prove that this is indeed the case.

Lemma 2.12

When either α31 or α3-1, the curves Ck- all converge to

α1,α2:α2=α1,-<α1<

while the curves Ck+ all converge to

α1,α2:α2=-α1,-<α1<.

Proof

We provide the proof for C1- and α31, in order to illustrate some details more clearly. We trust that the reader believes that all the other cases are covered by essentially the same arguments.

The curve C1- is parameterized by ωI1-=(π,2π). So sinω<0 and cosω increases from -1 to +1. From (2.4) we conclude that for any fixed ω both c1 and c2 converge to ωsinω(cosω-1)>0 as α31. So (c1,c2) converges to a point on the half-line α2=α1, α1>0. Since ωsinω(cosω-1) decreases from + for ωπ to 0 for ω2π, any point on this line is in fact the limit of points on C1-(α3) as α31.

Let r be an arbitrary negative real number. By Lemma 2.8(2) we know that ω=ω(α3,r) exists such that c1(ω,α3)=r. Note that we must have cosω-α3>0 for ω=ω(α3,r). Hence ω(α3,r)2π as α31. So let us put ω(α3,r)=2π-ε where, of course, ε=ε(α3,r). Using Taylor expansion of sinω and cosω, we find from the equation c1(ω,α3)=r that ε=2π(1-α3)-r+o(1-α3). Next the expression for c2 yields c2=2π+O(ε)-ε+O(ε2)(α3-1-12α3ε2+O(ε4))=-r+o(1-α3). We conclude that (c1(ω(α3,r),α3),c2(ω(α3,r),α3)) converges to (r,-r) as α31.

The limiting stability diagram is depicted in Fig. 3. Lemma 2.12 and this diagram are in complete accordance with the results that one obtains by studying (1.3) directly for α3=±1. The two real equations

ω=-α2sinω±ωcosω0=α1+α2cosω±ωsinω

yield that for ωkπ

α2=ωsinω±cosω-1α1=±α2

while putting ω=kπ yields

kπ=±kπ-1k0=α1±α2-1k.

So α3=+1 requires k to be even and then 0=α1+α2 while α3=-1 requires k to be odd and then 0=α1-α2.

Fig. 3.

Fig. 3

Partitioning of the (α1,α2)-parameter plane according to the number of roots of (1.3) in the right half plane for the limiting cases α3=+1 and α3=-1

A cell population model involving quiescence

Motivated by Alarcón et al. (2014), we assume that the cell cycle incorporates a checkpoint for the prevailing environmental condition E=E(t) in the sense that, upon passage of this point, a cell commits itself to division with probability β1=β1(E), while going quiescent with probability β2=β2(E). If we allow that β1+β2<1 one can interpret 1-β1-β2 as the probability that the cell undergoes checkpoint triggered apoptosis. Here, however, we shall assume that β1+β2=1 and that β1[0,1).

Quiescent cells have a probability per unit of time G=G(E) to reactivate and then progress towards division. Once reactivated, they differ in no way from the cells that never went quiescent. So quiescence amounts to a variable delay determined by the course of the environmental condition and an element of chance.

We assume that the proliferation step takes a fixed amount of time τ, in the following sense:

  1. if a cell commits itself to proliferation at the checkpoint, its (surviving) offspring arrives at the checkpoint after time τ

  2. if a quiescent cell is reactivated, it likewise takes exactly time τ for its offspring to arrive at the checkpoint.

A dividing cell produces two daughter cells. But we allow for a uniform death rate μ0 and accordingly the expected number of progeny arriving at the checkpoint after time τ equals 2exp(-μτ). See Alarcón et al. (2014) for a variant that incorporates a more general probability distribution for cell cycle duration as well as a more general survival probability. Also see Adimy and Chekroun (Adimy and Chekroun) for a detailed analysis of the situation that β1 does not depend on E and for references to various papers on hematopoietic cell models, many of them originating from the pioneering work of Mackey (1978).

Let Q(t) denote the quantity of quiescent cells at time t. Let p(t) denote the quantity of cells that, per unit of time, set out on division at time t. The mathematical formulation of the assumptions described above takes the form

p(t)=2β1E(t)e-μτp(t-τ)+G(E(t))Q(t), 3.1a
dQ(t)dt=2β2E(t)e-μτp(t-τ)-μ+G(E(t))Q(t). 3.1b

To complete the model formulation, we need to specify the dynamics of E and, in particular, the feedback law that describes the impact of the cell population on the environmental condition.

For concreteness, think of E as oxygen concentration. The equation

dE(t)dt=cinEin-cout+cp0τp(t-a)e-μada+cqQ(t)E(t) 3.2

expresses that E is determined by the balance of inflow, outflow and consumption. If the constants cin,cout,cp and cq are all big relative to μ and the range of β1,β2 and G, we can make a quasi-steady-state-assumption and replace (3.2) by the explicit expression for E, in terms of Q and the history of p, obtained by putting the right hand side of (3.2) equal to zero and solving for E. Before writing this expression, let us discuss the issue of scaling and the concomitant reduction in the number of parameters.

By scaling of time, we can achieve that τ=1. Since the system (3.1) is linear in p and Q, it does not change when we scale both of these variables with the same factor. A particular choice of this factor amounts to replacing cp by θcout and cq by (1-θ)cout with 0θ1. Finally, in (3.1) the variable E only occurs as an argument of β1,β2 and G and we have not yet specified these functions. So scaling E by the factor cincoutEin does not lead to any loss of generality. The upshot is the scaled system

p(t)=2β1E(t)e-μp(t-1)+G(E(t))Q(t), 3.3a
dQ(t)dt=2β2E(t)e-μp(t-1)-μ+G(E(t))Q(t), 3.3b
E(t)=11+θ01p(t-a)e-μada+1-θQ(t), 3.3c

that is based on the quasi-steady-state-assumption. The remaining parameters are μ,θ and the two functions G and β1 (note carefully that throughout the rest of the paper β2=1-β1).

Our main general results concerning (3.3) are

  1. Theorem 3.1 below about existence and uniqueness of a nontrivial steady state

  2. (in)stability of the nontrivial steady state is determined by the position in C of the roots of (1.3) with α given by (3.20) below

We use the systematic methodology of Diekmann et al. (2003) to derive Theorem 3.1. Linearization in the trivial steady state amounts to putting E(t)1 in the equations for p and Q. So the linearized system reads (when, abusing notation, we use the same symbols to denote the variables)

p(t)=2β11e-μp(t-1)+G(1)Q(t), 3.4a
dQ(t)dt=2β21e-μp(t-1)-μ+G(1)Q(t). 3.4b

In order to reveal the link between the (in)stability of the trivial steady state and the (non)existence of a nontrivial steady state, consider, for fixed positive E, the linear system

p(t)=2β1Ee-μp(t-1)+G(E)Q(t), 3.5a
dQ(t)dt=2β2Ee-μp(t-1)-μ+G(E)Q(t). 3.5b

At steady state the value E should be such that (3.5) has a nontrivial (and positive) steady state. If it has, it has a one-parameter family (since (3.5) is a linear system). The parameter should then be tuned so that E, when expressed by the steady state version of (3.3c), does have the required value.

So we study the linear system (3.5) with parameter E. The simplest approach is based on the biological interpretation and runs as follows. In a constant environment a cell that goes quiescent has probability

G(E)μ+G(E)

to become reactivated (rather than dying while quiescent). Hence the overall probability that a cell arriving at the checkpoint sets out on division, equals

β1(E)+β2(E)G(E)μ+G(E)=β1(E)μ+G(E)μ+G(E).

Accordingly the expected number R0(E) of progeny arriving at the checkpoint is given by the formula

R0(E)=2e-μβ1(E)μ+G(E)μ+G(E). 3.6

On the basis of (3.4) we now conclude that the trivial steady state is stable if R0(1)<1 and unstable if R0(1)>1.

If either

β1is strictly increasing andGis non-decreasing

or

β1is non-decreasing andGis strictly increasing

we find (by calculating the derivative of the right hand side of (3.6)) that R0 is a strictly increasing function of E.

In that case, there is at most one root for the equation

R0(E)=1. 3.7

The Eq. (3.3c) shows that only roots in [0, 1] yield candidates for steady states. The assumption

R01>1 3.8

guarantees that the unique root, if it exists, belongs to [0, 1). The existence is indeed guaranteed if, in addition to (3.8), we assume that

R00<1. 3.9

Incidentally, note that R0(1)>1 cannot possibly hold if 2e-μ1, so by imposing (3.8) we implicitly require that 2e-μ>1. Also note that from (3.6) it follows that R0(E)>2e-μβ1(E) and hence we automatically have

2e-μβ1E<1 3.10

if R0(E)=1.

We denote by E¯ the unique solution of (3.7). Let us look for constant solutions of (3.5). These should satisfy

1-2e-μβ1E¯-G(E¯)2e-μβ2E¯-μ+G(E¯)pQ=00.

The determinant of the matrix is equal to

μ+G(E¯)R0E¯-1

so we see right away that the condition R0(E)=1 for E=E¯ is both necessary and sufficient for a solution to exist. Then the vector

p¯Q¯=KG(E¯)1-2e-μβ1(E¯) 3.11

is, for any real number K, in the null space of the matrix, so is a constant solution of (3.5). Finally, we close the feedback loop by requiring that

E¯=11+KθG(E¯)1-e-μμ+1-θ1-2e-μβ1(E¯).

Since R0(E¯)=1 iff

G(E¯)=1-2β1(E¯)e-μ2e-μ-1μ 3.12

holds, one has

E¯=11+K1-2e-μβ1(E¯)1-lθ,

where we define

l:=3e-μ-22e-μ-1-,1. 3.13

We then find that

K=1E¯-111-2e-μβ1E¯1-lθ. 3.14

Using (3.11)–(3.14) one obtains p¯ and Q¯ as

p¯Q¯=1E¯-111-lθμ2e-μ-11. 3.15

We summarize the discussion above in

Theorem 3.1

Let β1 and G be continuously differentiable functions such that, for 0<E<1,

β1(E)(μ+G(E))+G(E)(1-β1(E))>0.

Assume that, with R0(E) defined by (3.6),

R0(0)<1<R0(1). 3.16

Then Eq. (3.7) has a unique solution E=E¯. Moreover, (3.3) has a unique steady state with p and Q given by (3.15).

Remark 3.2

It is biologically obvious that if R0(1)<1 the population goes extinct, while if R0(0)>1 it grows beyond any bound, despite the negative feedback via β1 and/or G. A proof is provided in the Appendix.

Our next aim is to study the stability of the nontrivial steady state. The first step in this direction consists of linearization of system (3.3). We put

p(t)=p¯+x(t)Q(t)=Q¯+y(t)

and focus on smallx, y. The Eq. (3.3c) implies that

E(t)=1E¯-1+θ01x(t-a)e-μada+1-θy(t)=E¯-E¯2θ01x(t-a)e-μada+1-θy(t)+h.o.t.

For f=β1,β2,G we therefore have

f(E(t))=f(E¯)-f(E¯)E¯2θ01x(t-a)e-μada+1-θy(t)+h.o.t.

Thus we deduce that the linearized system is given by

x(t)=2e-μβ1E¯x(t-1)-2e-μβ1(E¯)p¯+G(E¯)Q¯E¯2θ01x(t-a)e-μada+G(E¯)-2e-μβ1E¯p¯+GE¯Q¯E¯21-θy(t),dydt(t)=2e-μβ2E¯x(t-1)-2e-μβ2(E¯)p¯-G(E¯)Q¯E¯2θ01x(t-a)e-μada-μ+G(E¯)+2e-μβ2E¯p¯-GE¯Q¯E¯21-θy(t).

Define

A(E¯):=2e-μμ2e-μ-1β1(E¯)+G(E¯)E¯1-E¯. 3.17

Then from (3.15)

2e-μβ1(E¯)p¯+G(E¯)Q¯E¯2=A(E¯)11-lθ.

Recall that β1+β2=1 (and hence β2(E¯)=-β1(E¯)).

The characteristic equation has the form

detM(λ)=0 3.18

where M(λ) is the 2×2 matrix with entries

M11(λ)=1-2e-μβ1E¯e-λ+A(E¯)θ1-lθ1-e-μ+λμ+λ, 3.19a
M12(λ)=-G(E¯)+A(E¯)1-θ1-lθ, 3.19b
M21(λ)=2e-μβ1E¯-1e-λ-A(E¯)θ1-lθ1-e-μ+λμ+λ, 3.19c
M22(λ)=λ+μ+G(E¯)-A(E¯)1-θ1-lθ. 3.19d

A straightforward calculation now establishes that (3.18) is exactly of the form (1.3) with

α1=-μ-G(E¯)+A(E¯)1-2θ1-lθ 3.20a
α2=2e-μμβ1(E¯)+G(E¯)+A(E¯)32θ-11-lθ, 3.20b
α3=2e-μβ1E¯. 3.20c

Note that 0<α3<1 (recall (3.10)). A straightforward computation, using (3.12) and (3.13), establishes that

α1+α2=1-2e-μA(E¯). 3.21

As observed in between (3.9) and (3.10) the first factor is negative. The expression (3.17) shows that A(E¯) is positive if 0<E¯<1. We conclude that α1+α2<0 for 0<E¯<1 and that α1+α2=0 corresponds to the transcritical bifurcation at which (p,Q)=(0,0) (and hence E=1) loses its stability (in principle α1+α2=0 could yield saddle-node bifurcations as well, but since the internal equilibrium is unique, these do not actually happen).

The impact of θ (a one parameter study)

Proliferating and quiescent cells consume, in the model, oxygen in the proportion θ:1-θ. Here we allow in principle 0θ1, but a more reasonable range is 12θ1 (since if quiescent cells would consume more oxygen than proliferating cells, there does not seem to be any benefit in going quiescent). The aim of this section is to investigate the impact of θ on the stability of the nontrivial steady state.

As R0 does not depend on θ, neither does E¯. The formulas (3.20c) and (3.21) above next show that both α3 and α1+α2 remain constant when θ is varied. Since l<1 (recall (3.13)), α1 decreases if θ is increased, so increasing θ amounts to moving North-West in the (α1,α2)-plane along the line defined by (3.21).

Proposition 4.1

For θ[23,1] the nontrivial steady state is asymptotically stable.

Proof

By inserting θ=23 in (3.20b) we find α2>0. Since α1+α2<0, the corresponding point is located in the 2nd quadrant of the (α1,α2)-plane, which belongs to S(α3). If we increase θ we move along the line defined by (3.21) away from its intersection with C0(α3) defined by (2.3), so we remain in S(α3).

The intersection of the line (3.21) and the curve C0(α3) is found by solving the equation

ωsinωcosω-1=1-2e-μ1+2e-μβ1(E¯)A(E¯) 4.1

for ω(0,π). Note that ωsinω(cosω-1) decreases from 0 for ω=0 to - for ω=π. Hence, since 1-2e-μ<0, a unique solution exists.

Once the root of (4.1) is found, we can compute the corresponding value of α1 by inserting the root into (2.4a). Let us call the result α¯1. The value of α1 corresponding to θ=12 is, according to (3.20a), given by -μ-G(E¯). This provides us with a simple test:

  1. if -μ-G(E¯)<α¯1 the nontrivial steady state is asymptotically stable for θ[12,1].

  2. if -μ-G(E¯)>α¯1 there exists θcrit(12,23) such that the nontrivial steady state is asymptotically stable for θ(θcrit,1] but unstable for θ[12,θcrit).

In the next section we show that it is far more efficient (as well as far more illuminating) to implement a two parameter version of this test. For now we just conclude that increasing θ promotes stability of the nontrivial steady state.

Two-parameter case studies

The model described in Sect. 3 involves two regulatory mechanisms: the partitioning between quiescent and proliferating cells at the checkpoint, as described by the dependence of β1 on E, and the duration of the quiescent period, as described by the dependence of G on E. We will study these mechanisms separately and in turn, meaning that we first consider the case that β1 does not depend on E and next the case that G does not depend on E. We use respectively G(E¯) and β1(E¯) as a parameter, which measures how strongly the system reacts locally near the steady state to changes in the environmental condition.

The feedback to the environmental condition is described by Eq. (3.3c). The parameter θ captures the relative impact on the environmental condition of proliferating and quiescent cells. We will take θ as the second parameter.

As shown below, in both cases α3, as defined by (3.20c), does not depend on θ. Our strategy will be to use (3.20a) and (3.20b), and the definition of A and E¯, in order to express G(E¯) (or β1(E¯)) and θ in terms of α1 and α2. These expressions then allow us to picture the stability boundary in the (G(E¯),θ)-plane by mapping L(α3) and C0(α3) as defined in, respectively, (2.2) and (2.3), to the (G(E¯),θ)-plane.

The following observations are inspired by the analysis of Sect. 4. The shape of S(α3) shows that instability is promoted by letting α1 increase and α2 decrease i.e., by moving South-East in the (α1,α2)-plane. If θ<23 then α2 defined by (3.20b) decreases if A(E¯) increases. Such an increase of A(E¯) has, for θ>12, the effect that α1 decreases as well. But for θ only slightly bigger than 12 the effect on α2 is much larger than the effect on α1, so we might expect that making A(E¯) bigger leads to instability. Next (3.17) tells us that having either β1 or G large in E=E¯ is expected to promote instability. In a nutshell: we expect that steep response promotes instability.

Regulation via the length of the quiescent period

We assume that β1 is independent of E. It follows right away from (3.20c) that α3 is a constant depending on μ and β1, but not on θ. We fix β1 and μ such that (3.10) holds and assume that the strictly increasing function G is such that

G(0)<1-2β1e-μμ2e-μ-1=1-α3μ2e-μ-1<G(1),

holds, which is equivalent to assuming (3.16). Using (3.6) and (3.20c) we write (3.7) in the form

G(E¯)=1-α3μ2e-μ-1 5.1

and accordingly define

E¯=G-11-α3μ2e-μ-1. 5.2

If we eliminate A from the pair of equations (3.20a) and (3.20b), we obtain the identity

32θ-1α1+μ+G(E¯)=1-2θα2-μα32e-μ-G(E¯).

Solving for θ we find

θ=α2-μα3+2e-μα1+μ3e-μα1+μ+2α2-μα3-e-μG(E¯) 5.3

which upon substitution of (5.1) becomes an explicit expression for θ in terms of α1, α2, α3 and μ.

When β1 does not depend on E, (3.17) simplifies to

A(E¯)=G(E¯)E¯(1-E¯)

and if we substitute this into (3.20a) and solve for G(E¯) we obtain

G(E¯)=α1+μ+G(E¯)E¯1-E¯1-lθ1-2θ 5.4

which, by (5.1) and (5.2) is an explicit expression in α1, α2, α3, μ, θ and the function G.

For given β1,μ and G the expressions (5.3) and (5.4) allow us to transform the stability boundary from C0 in the (α1,α2) plane to the (G(E¯),θ) plane. The result, depicted in Fig. 4a for μ=0.5,β1=0.5 and E¯=0.5, clearly demonstrates that a steep response promotes instability. Of course G(E¯) is not really a free parameter and as a consequence Fig. 4 should be regarded as an illustration of a general phenomenon. In order to obtain further biological insights, one would need to consider the dependence on mechanistic parameters that shape the function G.

Fig. 4.

Fig. 4

a Stable and unstable parameter regions in the (G(E¯),θ)-plane for the case of regulated duration of quiescence. The parametric curve C0 in the (α1,α2)-plane is transformed to the outermost curve in the (G(E¯),θ)-plane (stability boundary). The curve inside the instability region corresponds to C1+. The equilibrium becomes unstable for small θ and large G(E¯). b Graph of the imaginary part ω along the stability boundary. On the dashed curve θ<12 while on the continuous curve θ>12

Regulation via the fraction of cells that become quiescent

In our second case study we assume that G is independent of E. Recalling (3.6) we can write (3.7) in the form

2e-μβ1(E¯)=1+G1-2e-μμ. 5.5

Since the right hand side does not depend on E¯ or θ, we conclude from (3.20c) that once again α3 is a constant (now determined by μ and G). Then we get

E¯=β1-1α32e-μ. 5.6

Eliminating A(E¯) from (3.20a) and (3.20b) we find exactly as before the expression (5.3) for θ. Solving (3.20a) for β1(E¯) we obtain

β1(E¯)=2e-μ-12e-μμα1+μ+GE¯1-E¯1-lθ1-2θ,

which only differs from the right hand side of (5.4) by a factor fully determined by μ.

We conclude that, apart from a scaling of the axis, the stability domain is exactly the same as in the situation of Sect. 5.1. In other words, these stability considerations do NOT yield any information that, as we had hoped when embarking on our investigation, helps to decide on the basis of observable fluctuations whether the regulation works via initiation or via termination of quiescence. So it remains a wide open question whether model considerations are at all useful when trying to decide about this issue?

Discussion

Physiologically structured population models lead to delay equations (Diekmann et al. 2010, this paper). A first step in the subsequent analysis is, as a rule, an investigation of the dependence of steady states, and in particular their stability, on parameters. Thus characteristic equations enter the scene.

Characteristic equations come, in a sense, with their own natural parameters. As emphasized in Diekmann et al. (1991), and more recently echoed in Diekmann and Korvasova (2013), it is attractive to single out two parameters and determine curves in the two parameter plane corresponding to roots lying on the imaginary axis, so to roots being critical, i.e., neither contributing to stability nor to instability. If the characteristic equation has more than two parameters, this leads to two dimensional slices of a higher dimensional parameter space. With a bit of luck one can sometimes understand the full picture in terms of parameterized families of two dimensional sections. Here we have been lucky indeed.

The natural parameters of the characteristic equation are themselves functions of the model parameters. So after one has obtained a picture in terms of the natural parameters, it still remains to analyse how natural parameters change when model parameters change. In Sect. 4 we did exactly this: we studied how α1 and α2 change when θ varies between 0 and 1. But an efficient and attractive alternative is to single out TWO model parameters and to map the stability boundary to the corresponding plane of model parameters, as indeed we did in Sect. 5.

Our motivation for studying the characteristic equation (1.3) came from the cell model described in Alarcón et al. (2014) and in Sect. 3. So it was tempting to organise our results differently, in particular to begin with the model, derive the characteristic equation and then study it. Our decision to put, instead, the characteristic equation itself in the spotlight is rooted in the belief that this characteristic equation arises in other contexts and that, once the analysis in terms of natural parameters has been done, other applications only require the study of the map sending model parameters to natural parameters and its inverse. In other words, we hope (and expect) that Sect. 2 is the most useful part of the paper.

Both the initiation of quiescence and the termination of quiescence involve environmental signals. Here we have assumed that one and the same signal is involved, viz. the concentration of an essential resource like oxygen. Consumption of the resource creates a nonlinear feedback loop. Does it matter whether regulation occurs via initiation of quiescence or via termination of quiescence? Is it possible to infer from observed dynamics which of the two mechanisms is the dominant one? Here we have shown that this is not easy, if possible at all. Indeed, we found that destabilization of the steady state hinges on

  • little difference in oxygen consumption of proliferating and quiescent cells

  • steep response to differences in oxygen concentration near the steady state value

but is rather independent of the precise way in which the feedback acts.

In the present paper we have neither discussed the well-posedness of system (3.3) nor the justification of the Principle of Linearized Stability. Both Alarcón et al. (2014) and Borges et al. (2014) deal with these issues for distributed delay variants of the model. In Alarcón et al. (2014) it is also shown that one can take the limit in the characteristic equation for the delay kernel tending to a Dirac mass and arrive at the characteristic equation considered here. But the limit is not yet considered for the delay equations themselves. In work in progress, S. M. Verduyn Lunel and O. Diekmann are considering duality for neutral equations and this will probably make it unnecessary to consider limits. Concerning the Principle of Linearized Stability, the recent Diekmann and Korvasova (2016) does provide inspiration, but details certainly require attention.

Electronic supplementary material

Acknowledgments

We thank K. P. Hadeler, J. Mahaffy and H. R. Thieme for helpful suggestions and/or reminders concerning Sect. 5, older results on characteristic equations and the Appendix. The research of the second author is part of his project “Delay equations and structured population dynamics” funded by the DFG (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft). The second author receives additional support by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) under project MTM 2010-18318. The third author was supported by JSPS Fellows, No.268448 of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. This paper was completed while all three authors took part in the May 2015 thematic program on Delay Differential Equations at the Fields Institute (Toronto). We like to thank both the Fields Institute and key organizer Jianhong Wu for providing a most inspiring environment for our work.

Appendix: Extinction if R0(1)<1 and unbounded growth if R0(0)>1

Here we substantiate Remark 3.2. As a preliminary step, we identify the key biologically interpretable quantities that depend on E in a monotone manner.

Consider a cell that is quiescent at time s. The probability that this cell is reactivated in the time interval [st], with t>s, is given by

stG(E(σ))e-sσμ+G(E(τ))dτdσ. 7.1

By partial integration we see that this is equal to

1-e-μt-s-stG(E(τ))dτ-μste-sσμ+G(E(τ))dτdσ, 7.2

where the third term is the probability of death and the second the probability that the cell neither died nor was reactivated, so is still quiescent. In self explaining notation we write

Pr(E(·))=1-Pq(E(·))-Pd(E(·)). 7.3

Now suppose that E1(τ)E2(τ) for sτt. The monotonicity of G implies that

Pq(E1(·))Pq(E2(·))Pd(E1(·))Pd(E2(·))

and hence that

Pr(E1(·))Pr(E2(·)). 7.4

If E(τ) is constant for sτt, taking the value E~, we compute

Pr(E~)=G(E~)μ+G(E~)1-e-μ+G(E~)t-s. 7.5

So for any function E defined on [st] with values in [0, 1] (recall (3.3c), repeated as (7.8c) below) we have

G(0)μ+G(0)1-e-μ+G(0)t-sPr(E(·))G(1)μ+G(1)1-e-μ+G(1)t-sG(1)μ+G(1). 7.6

Defining the population birth rate by

b(t)=2e-μp(t-1), 7.7

the model equation (3.3) becomes

p(t)=β1(E(t))b(t)+G(E(t))Q(t), 7.8a
ddtQ(t)=β2(E(t))b(t)-(μ+G(E(t)))Q(t), 7.8b
E(t)=11+θ01p(t-a)e-μada+1-θQ(t) 7.8c

with as state-space L1[-1,0]×R. For a real, not necessarily positive and/or small, number ϵ we compute

0t+1b(s)eϵsds=2e-μ+ϵ0t+1p(s-1)eϵs-1ds=2e-μ+ϵ0tp(s)eϵsds+-10φ(s)eϵsds, 7.9

where φ is the initial condition for p. From (7.8a) one can see that

0tp(s)eϵsds=0tβ1(E(s))b(s)+G(E(s))Q(s)eϵsds.

By the variation-of-constants-formula we solve (7.8b) as

Q(t)=q(t)+0tβ2(E(s))b(s)e-stμ+G(E(τ))dτds,

where q(t):=Q(0)e-μt-0tG(E(τ))dτ. It then holds that

0tG(E(s))Q(s)eϵsds=0tG(E(s))q(s)eϵsds+0tG(E(s))eϵs0sβ2(E(θ))b(θ)e-θsμ+G(E(τ))dτdθds. 7.10

Changing the order of integration, we find

0tG(E(s))eϵs0sβ2(E(θ))b(θ)e-θsμ+G(E(τ))dτdθds=0tβ2(E(θ))b(θ)eϵθθtG(E(s))e-θsμ-ϵ+G(E(τ))dτdsdθ. 7.11

Therefore we obtain

0t+1b(s)eϵsds=mϵ(t)+2e-μ+ϵ0tb(s)eϵsk(t,s)ds, 7.12

where

mϵ(t):=2e-μ+ϵ-10φ(s)eϵsds+0tG(E(s))q(s)eϵsds,k(t,s):=β1(E(s))+β2(E(s))stG(E(θ))e-sθμ-ϵ+G(E(τ))dτdθ.

Note that tmϵ(t) is monotone increasing and that for ϵ<μ this function is bounded. The identity (7.1)=(7.2) will be used for the estimation of the kernel k.

We first estimate k(ts) for ϵ=0 from above. As shown in (7.6) we have

Pr(E(·))=stG(E(θ))e-sθμ+G(E(τ))dτdθG(1)μ+G(1).

Using β2=1-β1 and the monotonicity of β1, one has, since G(1)μ+G(1)<1,

k(t,s)β1(E(s))+β2(E(s))G(1)μ+G(1)β1(1)+β2(1)G(1)μ+G(1).

Define

η1(ϵ):=2e-μ+ϵβ1(1)+β2(1)G(1)μ+G(1)=2e-μ+ϵμβ1(1)+G(1)μ+G(1)=eϵR0(1).

Now let us assume that R0(1)<1. We choose ϵ such that 0<ϵ<μ and η1(ϵ)<1 hold. Then from (7.12) we obtain

U(t+1)mϵ(t)+η1(ϵ)U(t)

with U(t):=0tb(s)eϵsds. Thus U is bounded. Let us define

N(t)=P(t)+Q(t), 7.13

where P denotes the proliferating cell population given as

P(t):=01p(t-a)e-μada. 7.14

Now we show that limtN(t)=0. From (3.3) and the definition of N (7.13) one obtains

ddtN(t)=p(t)-p(t-1)e-μ-μP(t)+β2(E(t))b(t)-μ+G(E(t))Q(t).

Using (7.7) and (7.8a), one sees

ddtN(t)=12b(t)-μN(t).

Let us define Nϵ(t):=N(t)eϵt. Then

ddtNϵ(t)=12b(t)eϵt-(μ-ϵ)Nϵ(t). 7.15

Integrating both sides from 0 to t, one obtains

Nϵ(t)=N(0)+12U(t)-(μ-ϵ)0tNϵ(s)ds. 7.16

Assume that 0Nϵ(s)ds=. Since U is bounded, we obtain limtNϵ(t)=-, which is a contradiction to that N is a positive function. Thus 0Nϵ(s)ds< follows, which then implies that Nϵ is bounded because of (7.16). Therefore, we now see that

limtN(t)limtMe-ϵt=0

for some M>0. This implies that limtQ(t)=0 and that limtP(t)=0. Note that if the initial condition for p has an integrable singularity, this singularity repeats with period 1 and in particular, p is not bounded.

Next we assume R0(0)>1 holds. Let us define

η2(c1,c2):=2e-μ+c1β1(0)+β2(0)G(0)μ-c1+G(0)1-e-μ-ϵ+G(0)c2,

for c10 and c2>0. Remark that

η2(0,):=limc2η2(0,c2)=R0(0)>1.

We choose ϵ<0 and T>0 such that η2(ϵ,T)>1 holds. From the variant of (7.6) with μ replaced by μ-ϵ

stG(E(θ))e-sθμ-ϵ+G(E(τ))dτdθG(0)μ-ϵ+G(0)1-e-μ-ϵ+G(0)(t-s).

Thus for t>T and s such that t-sT (i.e. st-T) it follows

k(t,s)β1(E(s))+β2(E(s))G(0)μ-ϵ+G(0)1-e-μ-ϵ+G(0)Tβ1(0)+β2(0)G(0)μ-ϵ+G(0)1-e-μ-ϵ+G(0)T

since β2=1-β1 and G(0)μ-ϵ+G(0)(1-e-(μ-ϵ+G(0)))T)<1. Now it can be seen that

0tb(s)eϵsk(t,s)ds=0t-Tb(s)eϵsk(t,s)ds+t-Ttb(s)eϵsk(t,s)ds0t-Tb(s)eϵsds{β1(0)+β2(0)G(0)μ-ϵ+G(0)×1-e-μ-ϵ+G(0)T}+t-Ttb(s)eϵsk(t,s)ds.

For U(t)=0tb(s)eϵsds, from (7.12) we obtain

U(t+1)nϵ(t)+η2(ϵ,T)U(t-T),t>T,

where

nϵ(t)=mϵ(t)+2e-μ+ϵt-Ttb(s)eϵsk(t,s)ds,

thus U(t) as t. Now we prove N is unbounded. For Nϵ(t)=N(t)eϵt, similar to above computation, we have (7.15). Integrating both sides of (7.15) from 0 to t, one obtains the same equation as in (7.16). Suppose that N is bounded. Let ϵ<0. Then limtNϵ(t)=0 holds and one can also see that

(μ-ϵ)0tNϵ(s)ds<(μ-ϵ)M0teϵsds<,

for some M>0. Since U(t) tends to as t, the right hand side of (7.16) tends to as t . Thus we obtain a contradiction to the identity in (7.16) and we can conclude that N is unbounded.

Contributor Information

Odo Diekmann, Email: O.Diekmann@uu.nl.

Philipp Getto, Email: philipp.getto@tu-dresden.de.

Yukihiko Nakata, Email: nakata@ms.u-tokyo.ac.jp.

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