Table 3.

Ten year incidence of fracture by DXA FN BMD, FRAX (no BMD) and DXR-BMD and sensitivity to DXA FN T-score ≤ −2.5 of FRAX (no BMD) and DXR-BMD.

Cumulative percentage of population	Threshold				Major osteoporotic fracture 10 year (%)			Hip fracture 10 year (%)			Sensitivity to DXA FN T-score ≤ −2.5 (%)
	DXA FN (g/cm2)	FRAX hip (%)	FRAX MOF (%)	DXR (g/cm2)	DXA FN	FRAX	DXR	DXA FN	FRAX	DXR	FRAX hip	FRAX MOF	DXR
65–69 years, N = 2343
0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10%	0.539	6.8	24.6	0.433	24.8	21.6	24.2	5.9	6.8	5.1	26	18	25
20%	0.582	4.5	19.3	0.456	21.8	19.7	21.6	4.9	5.6	3.4	39	38	43
30%	0.611	3.5	17.5	0.472	22.1	19.1	21.1	6.1	4.0	3.7	53	49	58
40%	0.639	2.9	15.4	0.488	20.0	18.1	19.6	5.2	4.1	3.5	62	57	70
50%	0.663	2.4	12.1	0.500	18.7	17.4	18.0	4.8	4.1	3.2	73	65	79
60%	0.689	2.0	10.8	0.515	17.1	16.2	16.1	4.1	4.0	3.1	83	80	85
70%	0.715	1.7	10.1	0.532	15.4	15.0	15.2	3.7	3.5	3.2	89	89	91
80%	0.753	1.4	9.4	0.551	14.7	14.1	14.4	3.4	3.4	3.2	94	94	97
90%	0.818	1.1	8.7	0.578	13.6	13.7	13.6	3.2	3.2	2.9	99	98	99
100%	1.270	0.4	5.0	0.678	12.9	12.9	12.9	2.9	2.9	2.9	100	100	100
70–74 years, N = 1674
0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10%	0.515	12.8	31.0	0.414	34.0	25.3	29.6	15.2	12.7	12.6	18	19	24
20%	0.551	9.0	24.3	0.437	29.2	24.4	27.8	12.7	12.0	10.5	34	31	40
30%	0.576	7.0	21.9	0.453	26.2	23.3	25.0	10.8	9.2	9.2	44	43	55
40%	0.606	5.9	19.6	0.467	25.4	21.6	22.5	10.5	9.2	8.2	56	55	69
50%	0.633	4.8	16.6	0.482	23.1	20.6	21.4	9.2	8.7	8.0	68	62	81
60%	0.657	4.0	14.1	0.496	21.7	20.3	20.1	8.3	7.7	7.4	77	73	87
70%	0.682	3.3	12.8	0.511	20.7	19.0	19.8	7.8	7.4	7.0	84	84	93
80%	0.718	2.8	11.9	0.529	19.7	18.2	19.0	7.3	7.1	6.8	92	93	96
90%	0.777	2.3	10.9	0.557	18.8	17.7	18.2	6.8	6.5	6.5	97	97	98
100%	1.084	0.8	6.3	0.669	17.2	17.2	17.2	6.2	6.2	6.2	100	100	100
75–79 years, N = 847
0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10%	0.500	21.9	38.2	0.395	40.2	31.7	37.2	21.4	16.7	15.5	15	15	19
20%	0.533	15.2	30.6	0.414	37.1	29.2	31.0	19.0	14.2	13.0	28	29	35
30%	0.558	11.7	27.9	0.433	34.2	30.5	29.5	18.2	14.2	13.0	43	44	49
40%	0.586	9.7	25.5	0.447	32.1	27.8	27.3	15.9	14.5	11.8	57	57	62
50%	0.606	8.2	22.2	0.458	31.7	28.3	25.9	16.5	13.7	11.6	67	64	69
60%	0.631	7.3	19.1	0.471	29.9	27.9	26.6	14.5	12.6	10.5	74	77	78
70%	0.659	6.2	17.2	0.484	28.2	26.5	27.0	13.5	12.2	10.5	84	84	86
80%	0.693	5.2	15.6	0.504	27.0	25.0	25.4	12.2	11.9	10.2	91	91	93
90%	0.743	4.2	14.0	0.539	25.1	24.0	24.7	10.9	10.8	10.4	95	95	98
100%	1.298	0.8	5.4	0.637	23.5	23.5	23.5	10.3	10.3	10.3	100	100	100
80+ years, N = 414
0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10%	0.472	27.6	45.7	0.377	61.5	31.6	39.5	41.5	22.0	24.4	12	13	16
20%	0.499	21.0	37.1	0.395	43.6	28.6	33.3	24.4	18.3	17.1	26	23	30
30%	0.529	16.7	33.9	0.409	41.4	28.0	36.1	25.2	17.1	18.5	37	38	43
40%	0.551	14.2	31.9	0.420	39.9	32.1	35.2	25.3	17.7	17.6	48	52	56
50%	0.577	12.2	29.3	0.432	38.6	34.2	36.0	23.8	19.4	18.4	59	61	67
60%	0.608	11.0	25.1	0.449	35.3	34.5	34.3	21.4	19.8	18.5	71	69	76
70%	0.633	9.7	22.3	0.461	33.5	35.7	33.1	19.4	19.0	18.0	85	81	84
80%	0.670	8.5	21.0	0.482	31.3	32.9	30.3	18.4	18.4	16.1	93	93	90
90%	0.721	7.4	19.4	0.507	29.6	30.3	29.7	16.7	16.7	15.9	98	98	95
100%	1.074	4.5	14.5	0.677	28.5	28.5	28.5	15.5	15.5	15.5	100	100	100

BMD: bone mineral density; DXA FN: femoral neck BMD by DXA; DXR: BMD by digital X-ray radiogrammetry; MOF: major osteoporotic fracture (clinical spine, hip, forearm or shoulder fracture)