Abstract
OBJECTIVE--To investigate pretrial risk factors and long term mortality (1964-1992) in participants and non-participants of a multifactorial primary prevention trial. DESIGN--A prospective study among 3313 initially healthy businessmen. During the 1960s (1964 onwards), 3490 healthy male business executives born between 1919 and 1934 participated in voluntary health checks at the Institute of Occupational Health in Helsinki. From that period cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors were available in 3313 men. In the beginning of the 1970s these men were invited to join a multifactorial primary prevention trial of CVD. Six groups were formed: (I) healthy participants in a high risk intervention group (n = 612), and (II) their randomised control group (n = 610); (III) a non-participant low risk group (n = 593); (IV) an excluded group with signs of CVD (n = 563); (V) a refused group (n = 867); and (VI) dead (n = 68). Groups I and II participated in the five year prevention trial which started in 1974. Other groups were followed up through registers, with no personal contact. MEASUREMENTS--Cardiovascular risk factors during the 1960s. Mortality follow up using national registers up to 31 December, 1992. MAIN RESULTS--Baseline risk factors were lowest in the low risk group, highest in the excluded group, intermediate and comparable in other groups. Eighteen-year (1974-1992) mortality (per 1000) was 79.3, 106.6, 155.2, 179.9, and 259.3 in the low risk, control, intervention, refused, and excluded groups, respectively (P < 0.001). In the whole population of 3313 men, the 28-year (1964-1992) total (n = 577) and coronary deaths (n = 199) were significantly predicted by smoking, blood pressure, and cholesterol; cancer deaths (n = 163) by smoking only; and violent deaths (n = 83) by none of the risk factors. One-hour postload glucose was significantly associated with total mortality in the intervention group only. When the intervention and control groups were included in the same model, the effect of group on total mortality tended to be dependent on the 1 h blood glucose value (P = 0.06 for the group by 1 h glucose interaction term). CONCLUSION--The traditional risk factors (smoking, blood pressure, and cholesterol) are significantly associated with 28-year mortality in this high social class population with previous health education. Conversely, a "clustering" of low risk factors predicted low total, coronary, and cancer mortality. The findings on 1 h blood glucose suggest that factors related to glucose tolerance explain in part the excess mortality in the intervention group compared with the control group.
Full text
PDFSelected References
These references are in PubMed. This may not be the complete list of references from this article.
- Bassler T. J., Bassler T. J., Jr Long-term mortality after primary prevention for cardiovascular disease. JAMA. 1992 Apr 22;267(16):2183–2186. doi: 10.1001/jama.267.16.2183a. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Chen Z., Keech A., Collins R., Slavin B., Chen J., Campbell T. C., Peto R. Prolonged infection with hepatitis B virus and association between low blood cholesterol concentration and liver cancer. BMJ. 1993 Apr 3;306(6882):890–894. doi: 10.1136/bmj.306.6882.890. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Chen Z., Peto R., Collins R., MacMahon S., Lu J., Li W. Serum cholesterol concentration and coronary heart disease in population with low cholesterol concentrations. BMJ. 1991 Aug 3;303(6797):276–282. doi: 10.1136/bmj.303.6797.276. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Chyou P. H., Nomura A. M., Stemmermann G. N., Kato I. Prospective study of serum cholesterol and site-specific cancers. J Clin Epidemiol. 1992 Mar;45(3):287–292. doi: 10.1016/0895-4356(92)90089-6. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Davey Smith G., Pekkanen J. Should there be a moratorium on the use of cholesterol lowering drugs? BMJ. 1992 Feb 15;304(6824):431–434. doi: 10.1136/bmj.304.6824.431. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Frank J. W., Reed D. M., Grove J. S., Benfante R. Will lowering population levels of serum cholesterol affect total mortality? Expectations from the Honolulu Heart Program. J Clin Epidemiol. 1992 Apr;45(4):333–346. doi: 10.1016/0895-4356(92)90034-k. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Jacobs D., Blackburn H., Higgins M., Reed D., Iso H., McMillan G., Neaton J., Nelson J., Potter J., Rifkind B. Report of the Conference on Low Blood Cholesterol: Mortality Associations. Circulation. 1992 Sep;86(3):1046–1060. doi: 10.1161/01.cir.86.3.1046. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Keys A., Aravanis C., Blackburn H., Van Buchem F. S., Buzina R., Djordjevic B. S., Fidanza F., Karvonen M. J., Menotti A., Puddu V. Probability of middle-aged men developing coronary heart disease in five years. Circulation. 1972 Apr;45(4):815–828. doi: 10.1161/01.cir.45.4.815. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Kromhout D., Bosschieter E. B., Drijver M., de Lezenne Coulander C. Serum cholesterol and 25-year incidence of and mortality from myocardial infarction and cancer. The Zutphen Study. Arch Intern Med. 1988 May;148(5):1051–1055. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Law M. R., Thompson S. G., Wald N. J. Assessing possible hazards of reducing serum cholesterol. BMJ. 1994 Feb 5;308(6925):373–379. doi: 10.1136/bmj.308.6925.373. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Lee I. M., Manson J. E., Hennekens C. H., Paffenbarger R. S., Jr Body weight and mortality. A 27-year follow-up of middle-aged men. JAMA. 1993 Dec 15;270(23):2823–2828. doi: 10.1001/jama.270.23.2823. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Lewis B., Tikkanen M. J. Low blood total cholesterol and mortality: causality, consequence and confounders. Am J Cardiol. 1994 Jan 1;73(1):80–85. doi: 10.1016/0002-9149(94)90731-5. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Lindberg G., Råstam L., Gullberg B., Eklund G. A. Low serum cholesterol concentration and short term mortality from injuries in men and women. BMJ. 1992 Aug 1;305(6848):277–279. doi: 10.1136/bmj.305.6848.277. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Manson J. E., Tosteson H., Ridker P. M., Satterfield S., Hebert P., O'Connor G. T., Buring J. E., Hennekens C. H. The primary prevention of myocardial infarction. N Engl J Med. 1992 May 21;326(21):1406–1416. doi: 10.1056/NEJM199205213262107. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Miettinen T. A., Huttunen J. K., Naukkarinen V., Strandberg T., Mattila S., Kumlin T., Sarna S. Multifactorial primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases in middle-aged men. Risk factor changes, incidence, and mortality. JAMA. 1985 Oct 18;254(15):2097–2102. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Miettinen T. A., Strandberg T. E. Implications of recent results of long term multifactorial primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases. Ann Med. 1992 Apr;24(2):85–89. doi: 10.3109/07853899209148332. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Muldoon M. F., Manuck S. B., Matthews K. A. Lowering cholesterol concentrations and mortality: a quantitative review of primary prevention trials. BMJ. 1990 Aug 11;301(6747):309–314. doi: 10.1136/bmj.301.6747.309. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Oliver M. F. Doubts about preventing coronary heart disease. BMJ. 1992 Feb 15;304(6824):393–394. doi: 10.1136/bmj.304.6824.393. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Paul O., Hennekens C. H. The latest report from Finland. A lesson in expectations. JAMA. 1991 Sep 4;266(9):1267–1268. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Pekkanen J., Nissinen A., Punsar S., Karvonen M. J. Short- and long-term association of serum cholesterol with mortality. The 25-year follow-up of the Finnish cohorts of the seven countries study. Am J Epidemiol. 1992 Jun 1;135(11):1251–1258. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a116231. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Salomaa V. V., Strandberg T. E., Vanhanen H., Naukkarinen V., Sarna S., Miettinen T. A. Glucose tolerance and blood pressure: long term follow up in middle aged men. BMJ. 1991 Mar 2;302(6775):493–496. doi: 10.1136/bmj.302.6775.493. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Salonen J. T. Risk of cancer and death in relation to serum cholesterol. A longitudinal study in an eastern Finnish population with high overall cholesterol level. Am J Epidemiol. 1982 Oct;116(4):622–630. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a113445. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Smith G. D., Shipley M. J., Marmot M. G., Rose G. Plasma cholesterol concentration and mortality. The Whitehall Study. JAMA. 1992 Jan 1;267(1):70–76. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Stamler J., Stamler R., Brown W. V., Gotto A. M., Greenland P., Grundy S., Hegsted D. M., Luepker R. V., Neaton J. D., Steinberg D. Serum cholesterol. Doing the right thing. Circulation. 1993 Oct;88(4 Pt 1):1954–1960. doi: 10.1161/01.cir.88.4.1954. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Strandberg T. E., Salomaa V. V., Naukkarinen V. A., Vanhanen H. T., Sarna S. J., Miettinen T. A. Long-term mortality after 5-year multifactorial primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases in middle-aged men. JAMA. 1991 Sep 4;266(9):1225–1229. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
- Vartiainen E., Puska P., Pekkanen J., Tuomilehto J., Lönnqvist J., Ehnholm C. Serum cholesterol concentration and mortality from accidents, suicide, and other violent causes. BMJ. 1994 Aug 13;309(6952):445–447. doi: 10.1136/bmj.309.6952.445. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]