Water management in Egypt for facing the future challenges

Graphical abstract

Abstract

The current water shortage in Egypt is 13.5 Billion cubic meter per year (BCM/yr) and is expected to continuously increase. Currently, this water shortage is compensated by drainage reuse which consequently deteriorates the water quality. Therefore, this research was commenced with the objective of assessing different scenarios for 2025 using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model and by implementing different water sufficiency measures. Field data were assembled and analyzed, and different planning alternatives were proposed and tested in order to design three future scenarios. The findings indicated that water shortage in 2025 would be 26 BCM/yr in case of continuation of current policies. Planning alternatives were proposed to the irrigation canals, land irrigation timing, aquatic weeds in waterways and sugarcane areas in old agricultural lands. Other measures were suggested to pumping rates of deep groundwater, sprinkler and drip irrigation systems in new agricultural lands. Further measures were also suggested to automatic daily surveying for distribution leak and managing the pressure effectively in the domestic and industrial water distribution systems. Finally, extra measures for water supply were proposed including raising the permitted withdrawal limit from deep groundwater and the Nubian aquifer and developing the desalination resource. The proposed planning alternatives would completely eliminate the water shortage in 2025.

Introduction

The current actual available water resources in Egypt are 55.5, 1.6, 2.4 and 6.5 BCM/yr from the Nile River, from effective rainfall on the northern strip of the Mediterranean Sea so as Sinai, from non-renewable deep groundwater from western desert so as Sinai and from shallow groundwater, respectively. The total water supply is 66 BCM, while the total current water requirement for different sectors is 79.5 BCM/yr [1]. The gap between the needs and availability of water is about 13.5 BCM/yr. This gap is compensated by recycling of drainage water either officially or unofficially.

The limited availability of supply resources is the main challenge facing the water resources system in Egypt. In the demand side, many challenges are found. Among these challenges are seepage losses from canals and drains, evaporation loss from water surfaces, evaporation losses so as infiltration losses from agricultural lands and aquatic weeds in canals. Moreover, the accuracy of water distribution operation, defect in control gates, number of pumps that non-deliver water to the streams ends, expansion of rice so as sugarcane areas and exceedance of the permissible pumping rates of wells are counted among the challenges, in addition to lack of withdrawal control in deep groundwater, damages in drip irrigation system, installation of sprinkler, high distribution losses in drinking water network and lack of public awareness in domestic water sector.

The intension of this paper is to contribute in solving the water shortage problem. Consequently, the objectives of the paper are to propose and assess different scenarios for 2025 implementing (WEAP) model.

Methodology

Based on the objectives, the methodology encompassed 5 phases as follows:

• •Phase I: the literature in the field of water management was assembled and reviewed.
• •Phase II: Field data in the field of water management in Egypt were assembled.
• •Phase III: Different scenarios for year 2025 were proposed and simulated.
• •Phase V: The simulation results were discussed.
• •Phase VI: Conclusions were provided and recommendations were suggested.

Reviewing the literature

Many articles, researches so as published reports, in the field of water management, were assembled and investigated. It was clear that many numerical models, that could simulate different water resources systems and could assess the impacts of different management alternatives, are available worldwide.

River Basin SIMulation (RIBASIM) model was implemented to simulate the water resources system in Fayoum Governorate, Egypt. Various scenarios were evaluated in optimistic, moderate and pessimistic conditions. The three scenarios represented different implementation rates of tested actions [2].

WEAP, RIBASIM, and MODSIM are some examples of generic models that can simulate the configurations, institutional conditions, and management issues of specific river basin water resource systems. Each of these example programs is a 0D model and is based on a node-link network representation of the water resource system being simulated. The equations of these models are based on the principal of changing stream and river reach volumes and flows using link storage nodes (routing method).

RIBASIM simulation principal is to solve water balance per time step for each node in downstream order as following:

$$S_{t1}-S_{t0}+c\ast ({\mathit{Qin}}_{t1}-{\mathit{Qout}}_{t1})=0$$ (1)

where

• t0, t1 = simulation time steps.

• $S_{t1}$ = storage at end of time step t1 (Mm³).

• ${\mathit{Qin}}_{t1}$ = flow into the node during time step t1 (m³/s).

• ${\mathit{Qout}}_{t1}$ = flow out of the node during time step t1 (m³/s).

• c = conversion factor.

MODSIM model simulates water allocation mechanisms in a river basin through sequential solution of the following network flow optimization problem for each time period t = 1 to T:

$$\sum \ell \in o_i{q}_{\ell }-\sum k\in I_i{q}_k=b_{\mathit{it}}(q)\mathcal{i}\text{For all nodes}\text{i}-\text{N}$$ (2)

$$l_{\ell t}(q)⩽q_{\ell }⩽u_{\ell t}(q)\text{For all links}1-\text{A}$$ (3)

where

• A = the set of all links in the network.

• N = the set of all nodes.

• $o_i$ = the set of all links originating at node i.

• $I_i$ = the set of all links terminating at node i.

• $b_{\mathit{it}}$ = the positive gain or negative loss at node i at time t.

• $q_{\ell }$ = flow rate in link ℓ.

• $l_{\ell t}$ and $u_{\ell t}$ = lower and upper bounds, respectively, on flow in link ℓ at time t.

RiverWare is a river basin modeling system that was developed at the Center for Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems (CADSWES), University of Colorado. RiverWare uses the RiverWare Policy Language (RPL) for developing operational policies for river basin management and operations. A rule editor allows users to enter logical expressions in RPL defining rules by which objects behave, as well as interrelationships between objects for simulating complex river basin operations [3].

Water Resources Planning Model (WRPM) was developed in South Africa. It is used for assessing water allocation within catchments. The model simulates surface water and groundwater as well as inter-basin transfers. The model is designed to be used by a range of users with different requirements and can be configured to provide outputs of different information [4].

Decision Support Systems (DSSs) were implemented by the Komati Basin Water Authority (KOBWA). It manages water resource in the Komati River Basin which is shared by South Africa, Mozambique and Swaziland. KOBWA uses a suite for water allocation (yield), water curtailment (rationing) and river hydraulic application [5].

The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model was applied in water resources assessments and development in dozens of countries (i.e. United States, Mexico, Brazil, Germany, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Kenya, South Africa, Mozambique, Egypt and Israel). WEAP was applied to assess scenarios of water resource development in the Pangani Catchment in Tanzania [6].

Moreover, Monem et al. used the WEAP model for identifying the possible effects of TK5 dam project on Atbara sub-basin flow yield where Atbara is the last great tributaries feeding the Nile River till the end of its journey into the Mediterranean Sea. It is considered one of the three main rivers that flow into the Main Nile from the south with the Blue Nile and the White Nile. Their findings indicated that the annual flow yield of Atbara Basin does not increase with the implementation of TK5 Dam at the upstream part of the basin. The findings indicated that TK5 Dam has positive impacts on improving power generation from Khashem El Girba Dam through flow regulation process. In addition, it contributes in improving Atbara River Basin annual yield in drought period [7].

Model description

The Water evolution and planning (WEAP) model was chosen to be implemented in this research. It was applied in water resources assessments and development in dozens of countries (i.e. United States, Egypt and Israel). It is a microcomputer tool for integrated water resources planning. It provides a comprehensive, flexible and user-friendly framework for policy analysis. WEAP places the demand side of the equation (water use patterns, equipment efficiencies, re-use, prices and allocation) on an equal footing with the supply side (streamflow, groundwater, reservoirs and water transfers). It simulates water demand, supply, flows, and storage, and pollution generation, treatment and discharge. It evaluates a full range of water development and management options, and takes account of multiple and competing uses of water systems. The system is represented by a network of nodes and links. Each node and link requires data that depend on what that node or link represents [8].

As for the basic equation of WEAP, it uses the water balance equation with its general form: Input (I) – Output (O) = Change in storage (ΔS), where inputs are precipitation, runoff, and groundwater influent, and the outputs are evaporation, irrigation use, domestic use, industrial use, and losses. Each component is estimated as follows:

• •Precipitation is collected from rainfall gauges.
• •Runoff is estimated by the duration of precipitation s/hr or min/hr.
• •Groundwater influent depends on the available and permissible volumes of each basin or area.
• •Irrigation use is calculated from the consumption use rate, field application losses, distribution losses and conveyance losses.
• •Evaporation is measured from water level changes in evaporation pans.

The WEAP structure consists of five main views, as follows:

• •The Schematic view contains GIS-based tools, in which objects of both demand and supply can be created and positioned as nodes within the system.
• •The Data view is to create variables and relationships, assumptions and projections using mathematical expressions.
• •The Results view allows detailed and flexible display of all model outputs, in charts and tables, and on the Schematic.
• •The Scenario Explorer is to highlight key data and results in the system for quick viewing.
• •The Notes view provides a place to document any data and assumptions. For every demand node, the level of priority is set for allocation of constrained resources among multiple demand sites where WEAP attempts to supply all demand sites with highest demand priority, then moves to lower priority sites until all of the demand is met or all of the resources are used, whichever happens first.

Proposed scenarios

Several scenarios were proposed. These scenarios encompass the current scenario in addition to three future scenarios for 2025. The current scenario was used for calibration process. The future scenarios were as follows: (i) 2025 normal scenario which expected demand developments with the same current policies and without alternative measures, (ii) 2025 ambitious scenario which explored the impacts of new alternative measures on future water resources system in Egypt, and (iii) 2025 extra scenario which identified the extra withdrawal volume to cover the unmet demands.

It is worthy to mention that 2025 extra scenario were developed after the results’ analysis of 2025 ambitious scenario. The future scenarios were evaluated with regard to water sufficiency. The domestic and industrial sectors had the highest priority and took their water requirements from the surface water, shallow groundwater and rainfall. The agricultural lands were divided into old agricultural lands and new agricultural lands. The old agricultural lands took their requirements from surface water, shallow groundwater, and rainfall. The new agricultural lands consumed the deep groundwater.

The input data for the agricultural demand node were the total agricultural area, consumption use rate which was estimated as the average use rate of all cropping patterns, the loss rate including evaporation losses, field application losses, distribution losses, and conveyance losses.

The input data for the domestic demand node were the current population number, annual water use rate and the loss rate. The data for the industrial demand node were the current number of factories, the consumption use rate of each factory and the loss rate.

The supply side included the supply from High Aswan Dam, rainfall, shallow groundwater, deep groundwater and desalination. The data for the HAD node and the rainfall node were the monthly inflow. The data for the shallow groundwater node, deep groundwater node and desalination node were the yearly withdrawal.

Current scenario

The current scenario was simulated and its schematic view is presented in Fig. 1. The agricultural areas were collected as an absolute figure, but the consumption use rate and loss rate were estimated. According to the National Water Resources Plan (NWRP/MWRI, 2013), the agricultural sector consumes only 38.5 BCM from the total withdrawal of 57.5 BCM in 1997 or 67% of the total withdrawal [9]. NWRP estimated that the consumption in 2017 is 61% of the total withdrawal after assuming an implantation of different measures under both the supply and demand sides. Fayoum Water Resources Plan/NWRP, (2012) reported that the agricultural sector in Fayoum governorate consumes only 57% of the total withdrawal in 2011 [10]. It estimated that the withdrawal in 2017 is 60%. This means that about 40% of the agricultural withdrawal in Egypt is being lost either by evaporation losses from canals and fallow lands, seepage losses from the Nile River and a 31,000 km of irrigation canals, infiltration losses from lands, or consumption losses of aquatic weeds in water streams. The loss rate in the current scenario was assumed to be 40%. Similarly, about 15% of deep groundwater withdrawal is being lost either by increasing the pumping rates, unofficial withdrawal, damages in drip systems, or by application of sprinkler systems in zones in which drip systems are more suitable. The water loss rate in agricultural lands consuming deep groundwater in the current scenario was assumed to be 15%. The current crop water use rate $({\text{m}}^3/{\text{m}}^2/$ year) was also estimated as follows:

$$\text{Crop}\text{use}\text{rate}=\frac{\sum \text{Crop}\text{area}(\text{fed})\times \text{crop}\text{consumption}\text{rate}({\text{m}}^3/\text{fed})}{\sum \text{Crop}\text{area}({\text{m}}^2)}$$ (4)

The current crop water-use rate was calculated in the current scenario to be 1.4 ${\text{m}}^3/{\text{m}}^2$/year.

Fig. 1.

Schematization of nodes and links in the current scenario.

For the domestic demand node, the current population number, annual water use rate and the loss rate were required. The population number and the water use rate were given as absolute numbers, but the loss rate was estimated. Non-revenue water (NRW) is water that has been produced and is lost before it reaches the customer. Real losses can be found through leaks or apparent losses such as through the ft or metering inaccuracies. Worldwide, the share of NRW in total water produced varies between 5% in Singapore and 96% in Lagos, Nigeria. NWRP/MWRI, 2013 reported the domestic sector of [11]. Egypt consumed only 0.9 BCM from the total withdrawal of 4.7 BCM or 19% in 1997. The remainder is either lost or discharged back to the system. This ratio was estimated to be 24% in 2017. Therefore, this study assumed that the current actual consumption was 20% of the total withdrawal. This means that the share of NRW in total water produced was 80% in Egypt which was considered a very high value, since the World Bank recommends that NRW to be less than 25% [12]. The NRW was considered the loss rate in the current scenario which was assumed to be 80%.

The data for the industrial demand node were the current number of factories and the consumption use rate of each factory which were given as absolute numbers, and the loss rate which was estimated. Similarly, the loss rate in the industrial sector was 91% in 1997 and 81.3 in 2017 [9]. Therefore, it was assumed that the current loss rate in the WEAP model was 86%.

2025 normal scenario

This schematic view of this scenario is presented in Fig. 2. This scenario considered the expected increase in population number, expected increase in number of factories, and expected increase in agricultural areas. This scenario also considered the new project to reclaim the 750,000-feddans project planned to take its water requirements from the Nubian aquifer. This scenario assumes the continuity of current policies. Therefore, the same values of the current scenario were assumed for the annual water use rate and the losses for the domestic demand node. For the industrial demand node, the consumption use rate of each factory and the losses are the same. For the agricultural demand node, the consumption use rate for cropping patterns, and the losses including evaporation losses, field application losses, distribution losses, and conveyance losses are the same. The supply side includes the same values for the supply from Aswan High Dam, rainfall, shallow groundwater and deep groundwater. However, the supply from Nubian aquifer was a new water supply to irrigate the planned 750,000-feddans project.

Fig. 2.

Schematization of nodes and links in the 2025 normal scenario.

2025 ambitious scenario

The schematic view of the 2025 ambitious scenario is presented in Fig. 3 which shows an extra supply node being the supply from desalination. This scenario for the year 2025 assumed the implementation of different alternative measures to improve the performance of water resources system and reduce the water requirements of all sectors. The tested measures in this scenario have been collected from different plans, strategies and reports.

Fig. 3.

Schematization of the nodes and links in the 2025 ambitious scenario.

For the agricultural sector, the selected measures in this scenario were either to reduce the loss rate or to reduce the crop consumption rate, and subsequently to reduce the water demands and shortages. The current water losses in agricultural sector were about 40% of the total withdrawal, which resulted from evaporation losses from canals and fallow lands, seepage losses from the Nile river and a 31,000 km of irrigation canals, infiltration losses from lands, and consumption losses of aquatic weeds in water streams. The first category of tested measures reducing the water losses was as follows:

• (i)Covering the effective reaches of the 31,000 km of irrigation canals will reduce the evaporation loss.
• (ii)Land leveling and irrigation at night will reduce the evaporation losses and infiltration losses from agricultural lands.
• (iii)Removal of aquatic weeds will reduce their consumption losses, and reduce the dead zones in the streams which exposed to evaporation losses.
• (iv)Lining and maintenance of irrigation canals in effective reaches will reduce the seepage and leakage losses from the sides and bottoms of canals.

This scenario assumed that these measures reduced the loss rate in the whole system from 40% to 10%.

The second category of measures focused on sugarcane and rice crops because they are the most water consuming crops, since sugarcane consumption of water is 11,000 m³/feddan, and rice 7000 m³/feddan. The announced rice area in Egypt is 1,095,117 feddans; however, the actual area is 1,902,519 feddans. The illegal rice area is 807,402 feddans. The tested measures reducing the crop consumption rate were as follows:

• (i)Turning the sugarcane areas to sugar beet cultivation, as its water consumption is only 4000 m³/feddan. But, this measure requires modifications in the design of most factories to be able to refine sugar beet instead of sugarcane.
• (ii)Keeping the actual rice area = the announced area = 1,095,117 feddans.

Both measures reduced the crop water consumption rate from 1.4 to 1 ${\text{m}}^3/{\text{m}}^2$/year to 1 ${\text{m}}^3/{\text{m}}^2$/year.

For the agricultural lands consuming deep groundwater, the current water losses are found due to increasing the pumping rates, unofficial withdrawal and its accompanied random pumping rates, damages in drip systems, or application of sprinkler systems in zones in which drip systems are more suitable. Therefore, this scenario assumed the following measures:

• (i)Monitoring the real pumping rates of wells does not exceed the required discharges which are recommended by the ministry of water resources and irrigation. This will help reduce the water loss, since the pumping rate is proportional to the water loss.
• (ii)Control of the unofficial withdrawal of deep groundwater, which subsequently helps control the pumping rates of wells.
• (iii)Regular inspection and maintenance of drip irrigation systems to eliminate any losses from damages.
• (iv)Turning the sprinkler systems to drip systems in many areas where the drip systems are more suitable. In general, water losses in drip systems are lower than sprinkler systems.

It was assumed in the 2025 ambitious scenario that these measures reduced the water loss rate from 15% to 5%.

For the domestic and industrial sectors, the real losses consist of leakage from transmission and distribution mains, leakage and overflows from the water system’s storage tanks and leakage from service connections. The selected measures in this scenario were as follows:

• (i)Establishing an acoustic leak detection system allowing utilities to optimize their system performance with automatic daily surveying for distribution leaks.
• (ii)Managing the pressure in the distribution system effectively. This requires a comprehensive evaluation of the background losses before introducing pressure control. This also requires a pressure management program, which breaks down the distribution system into pressure zones. Pressure is monitored at the inlet, average zone point and the critical zone point. The average zone point is a location that exhibits the average pressure rate for the zone. The critical zone point is a location where pressure is the lowest. The reduction of pressure greatly reduces the amount of night flow when the system is quiet. The reduction of night flow reduces the NRW or the loss rate without even repairing a leak.

This scenario assumed that application of both measures will reduce the loss rate in the domestic sector from 80% to 25%.

2025 extra scenario

It assumed increasing the permitted withdrawal limit from deep groundwater and the Nubian aquifer in order to cover the unmet demand of the agricultural lands consuming deep groundwater and the new 750,000-feddan project. The schematic view of this scenario had the same nodes and links of the 2.8. 2025 ambitious scenario.

Table 1 presents the input data for the current scenario and for the three future 2025 scenarios. In the future scenarios, the input data were used as planning alternatives.

Table 1.

Input data for all scenarios.

Data	Unit	Current Scenario	2025 Normal scenario	2025 Ambitious Scenario	2025 Extra Scenario
Demand
Area of the agricultural node	Million m2	32,000	34,100	34,100	34,100
Crop water use rate of the agricultural node	M3/m2	1.4	1.4	1	1
Loss rate in the agricultural node	%	40	40	10	10
Agricultural area consuming deep groundwater	Million m2	5300	6500	6500	6500
Crop water use rate of the agricultural area consuming deep groundwater	M3/m2	1	1	1	1
Loss rate in the agricultural node consuming deep groundwater	%	15	15	5	5
Area of 750,000-feddan project	Million m2	0	3150	3150	3150
Crop water use rate of the 750,000-feddan project	M3/m2	0	1	1	1
Loss rate in the 750,000-feddan project	%	15	15	5	5
Population in the domestic node	Cap	83,500,000	95,000,000	92,000,000	92,000,000
Domestic water use rate	L/person	85,000	85,000	85,000	85,000
Loss rate in the domestic node	%	80	80	25	25
Number of industrial units in the industrial node	–	2500	2500	2500	2500
Water use rate of the industrial node	M3/unit	1,200,000	1,200,000	1,000,000	1,000,000
Loss rate of the industrial node	%	86	86	86	86
Supply
HAD	BCM	55.5	55.5	55.5	55.5
Rainfall	BCM	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.6
Shallow groundwater	BCM	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5
Deep groundwater	BCM	2.4	2.4	2.4	7.2
Nubian aquifer	BCM	0	2.4	2.4	4.8
Desalination	BCM	0	0	0.7	0.7

Model calibration

Based on the input data in Table 1, WEAP simulated the current situation in Egypt. This was viewed as a calibration step of the model to the water resources system in Egypt.

During the calibration process, the agricultural demand was 68.5 BCM/yr, the domestic demand was 9.9 BCM/yr and the industrial demand was 2.4 BCM/yr. The total demand of all sectors was 80.8 BCM/yr. Moreover, the assembled field measurements in 2015 were incorporated in the calibration process. The actual agricultural, the domestic, the industrial and the total demands were 67, 10, 2.5 and 79.5 BCM/yr, respectively. The Mean Percentage Relative Error (MPRE) (%) for the current simulation was calculated as follows:

$$\text{MPRE}=\frac{\sum \left[\left(\frac{\text{Numerical result}-\text{Field measurment}}{\text{Field measurment}}\right)\times 100\right]}{\text{Number of result}}$$

MPRE values for all sectors were 2.22, −0.93, −4 and 1.63 for the agricultural, domestic, industrial and total demands, respectively. This indicated that the model underestimated the field measurements of the domestic demand by 0.93% and the industrial demand by 4%. It also indicated that the model overestimated the agricultural demand by 2.22% and the total demand by 1.63%. Thus, it was clear that WEAP model can perform well in simulating future demands.

Results and discussion

The simulation and calibration processes and the results were obtained, analyzed, discussed and presented. Table. 2 shows the monthly supply water requirements (water demands) (BCM) for agricultural lands, agricultural lands consuming deep groundwater, 750,000-feddan project, domestic sector, and industrial sector. Table 3 lists the yearly water demands, which are the summations of monthly demands of Table 2.

Table 2.

Monthly supply water requirements (water demands).

Scenario	Sector	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May	June	July	Aug.	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.
Current Scenario	Agricultural land	0.4	0.9	3.5	5.6	7.1	11.7	12.4	11.3	5.2	2.6	0.9	0.4
Agricultural land consuming deep GW	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.4	0.4
Domestic	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.9	1	1	1	1	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7
Industrial	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
New 750,000-feddan Project	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
2025 Normal Scenario	Agricultural land	0.4	1	3.8	6	7.6	12.4	13.2	12.1	5.5	2.8	1	0.5
Agricultural land consuming deep GW	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.5
Domestic	0.7	0.7	0.8	1	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.1	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.7
Industrial	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3
New 750,000-feddan Project	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.2
2025 Ambitious Scenario	Agricultural land	0.9	0.9	2.3	3.2	3.7	5.7	5.4	4.4	3	1.6	1	0.9
Agricultural land consuming deep GW	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4
Domestic	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.9	1	1	1	1	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7
Industrial	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3
New 750,000-feddan Project	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2
2025 Extra Scenario	Agricultural land	0.9	0.9	2.3	3.2	3.7	5.7	5.4	4.4	3	1.6	1	0.9
Agricultural land consuming deep GW	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4
Domestic	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.9	1	1	1	1	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7
Industrial	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3
New 750,000-feddan Project	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2

Table 3.

The yearly supply water requirements (water demands) at different scenarios.

Supply Requirement (Demand) (BCM/yr)	Current Scenario 2015	2025 Normal Scenario	2025 Ambitious Scenario	2025 Extra Scenario
Agricultural Lands	62.5	66.6	33.2	33.2
Agricultural Lands Consuming Deep GW	6	7.4	5.9	5.9
750,000-feddan Project	–	5.1	4.1	4.1
Domestic Sector	9.9	11.2	10	10
Industrial Sector	2.4	4	3.3	3.3
Total	80.8	94.2	56.6	56.6

Regarding the current scenario, the unmet demand was only observable in the agricultural sector, and unmet demand was not evident in the domestic and industrial sectors. The agricultural unmet demand was only found in the summer months. The unmet demand in agricultural lands consuming deep groundwater was distributed over all year months with low values, Table 4. The yearly unmet demand was 11.5 BCM/yr for the agricultural land, and 3.6 BCM/yr for the agricultural land consuming deep groundwater, Table 5.

Table 4.

Monthly unmet demand.

Scenario	Sector	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May	June	July	Aug.	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.
Current	Agricultural land	0	0	0	0.1	0.3	3.5	3.9	2.9	0.5	0.2	0	0
Agricultural land consuming deep GW	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2
Domestic	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Industrial	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
New 750,000-feddan Project	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
2025 Normal Scenario	Agricultural land	0	0	0	0.3	0.7	5.2	5.7	4.6	1.1	0.5	0.1	0
Agricultural land consuming deep GW	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3
Domestic	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Industrial	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
New 750,000-feddan Project	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1
2025 Ambitious Scenario	Agricultural land	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Agricultural land consuming deep GW	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2
Domestic	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Industrial	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
New 750,000-feddan Project	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0
2025 Extra Scenario	Agricultural land	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Agricultural land consuming deep GW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Domestic	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Industrial	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
New 750,000-feddan Project	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Table 5.

The yearly unmet demands at different scenarios.

Unmet Demand (BCM/yr)	Current Scenario 2015	2025 Normal Scenario	2025 Ambitious Scenario	2025 Extra Scenario
Agricultural Lands	11.5	18.3	0	0
Agricultural Lands Consuming Deep GW	3.6	5	3.5	0
750,000-feddan Project	–	2.7	1.7	0
Domestic sector	0	0	0	0
Industrial sector	0	0	0	0
Total	15.1	26	5.2	0

The demands for the domestic and industrial sectors were completely covered in all months of the current year. For the agricultural land, the demand was covered only in the winter months. However, the coverage percentages of the summer months were in the range between 68.4% and 100%. For the agricultural land consuming deep groundwater, the coverage percentage was distributed over all months with a range from 29.8% to 48%, Table 6.

Table 6.

Coverage.

Scenario	Sector	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May	June	July	Aug.	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.
Current	Agricultural land	100	100	100	98.6	96.3	70.1	68.4	74.7	89.5	91.2	95	99.7
Agricultural land consuming deep GW	48	48	47.4	47.4	36.5	29.8	29.8	29.8	41.5	41.5	48	48
Domestic	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Industrial	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
New 750,000-feddan Project	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
2025 Normal Scenario	Agricultural land	100	100	100	95.5	91	58	57	61.7	80.5	82.5	87.5	92
Agricultural land consuming deep GW	39.1	39.1	38.7	38.7	29.7	24.3	24.3	24.3	33.8	33.8	39.1	39.1
Domestic	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Industrial	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
New 750,000-feddan Project	57.8	57.8	56.5	42.8	34.6	34.6	34.2	47.6	48.2	50	57.8	67.5
2025 Ambitious Scenario	Agricultural land	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Agricultural land consuming deep GW	48.9	48.9	48.3	48.3	37.1	30.4	30.4	30.4	42.3	42.3	48.9	48.9
Domestic	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Industrial	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
New 750,000-feddan Project	72.2	72.2	70.5	53.5	43.3	43.3	42.7	59.5	60.2	62.5	72.2	84.3
2025 Extra Scenario	Agricultural land	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Agricultural land consuming deep GW	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Domestic	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Industrial	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
New 750,000-feddan Project	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

For 2025 normal scenario, the yearly water requirement for agriculture was 66.6 BCM, for agricultural lands consuming deep groundwater was 7.4 BCM, for domestic sector was 11.2 BCM, for industrial sector was 4 BCM, and for the new 750,000-feddan project was 5.1 BCM. The total water requirement in this scenario was 94.2 BCM/yr, Table 3. Similar to the current scenario, the unmet demand (water shortage) was found only in the agricultural sector. The monthly unmet demand of the agricultural lands was only observable in the summer months. However, it was distributed over all year months in the agricultural lands consuming deep groundwater and in the new 750,000-feddans project, Table 4. The yearly unmet demand was with a value of 18.3 BCM/yr for the agricultural land, 5 BCM/yr for the agricultural land consuming deep groundwater, and 2.7 BCM/yr for the new 750,000-feddans project, Table 5. The demands for the domestic and industrial sectors were completely covered. For the agricultural land, the demand was covered only in the winter months, and the coverage percentage in the summer months was in the range between 57% and 100%. For the agricultural land consuming deep groundwater, the coverage percentage was distributed over all year months with a range from 24.3% to 39.1%. For the new 750,000-feddan project, the coverage percentage was distributed over all year months with a range from 34.2% to 67.5%, Table 6.

For the 2025 ambitious scenario, the yearly water requirement in the 2025 ambitious scenario for all water dependent sectors has been declined. The yearly water requirement for agriculture was 33.2 BCM/yr, for agricultural lands consuming deep groundwater was 5.9 BCM/yr, for domestic sector was 10 BCM/yr, for industrial sector was 3.3 BCM/yr, and for the new 750,000-feddan project was 4.1 BCM/yr. The total water requirement in this scenario was 56.6 BCM/yr, Table 3. The monthly unmet demand of agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors disappeared as a result of assuming the implementation of measures. The unmet demand was only found in the agricultural lands consuming deep groundwater and the new 750,000-feddan project. Both unmet demands were distributed over all year months, Table 4. The yearly unmet demand was 3.5 BCM/yr for the agricultural land consuming deep groundwater, and 1.7 BCM/yr for the new 750,000-feddans project, Table 5. The demands for the agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors were completely covered. For the agricultural land consuming deep groundwater, the coverage percentage was distributed over all year months with a range from 30.4% to 48.9%. For the new 750,000-feddan project, the coverage percentage was distributed over all year months with a range from 42.7% to 84.3%, Table 6.

The 2025 extra scenario indicated that all demands were covered, if the permitted withdrawal limit of deep groundwater increased from 200 to 600 Mm³/year for the lands consuming deep groundwater, and from 200 to 400 Mm/Year for the 750,000-feddan project from the Nubian aquifer, Table 6.

The analyses of different yearly unmet demands of all sectors in Table 5 indicated that the unmet demand of agricultural lands increased in the 2025 normal scenario as a result of planned horizontal expansion of agricultural lands. But it was completely eliminated in the 2025 ambitious scenario after application of different measures. Similarly, the unmet demand of agricultural lands consuming deep groundwater increased in the 2025 normal scenario, and it decreased in the 2025 ambitious scenario, but it was eliminated after extra withdrawal from groundwater. The unmet demand of the new 750,000-feddan project decreased from the 2025 normal scenario to the 2025 ambitious scenario, but it was also eliminated after extra withdrawal from the Nubian aquifer. The demands of other sectors were covered.

Conclusions and recommendation

The current study assessed three scenarios of water resources situation in the year 2025 using the WEAP model. The current unmet demand of water was 15.1 BCM/yr, which was found only in the agricultural sector and compensated by drainage water reuse and unofficial withdrawal of deep groundwater. Water shortage in 2025 would be 26 BCM/yr (i.e. 18.3, 5.0 and 2.7 BCM/yr in the agricultural land, in the agricultural land consuming deep groundwater and in the new 750,000-feddans project, respectively).

The tested measures in this study were significant, since they resulted in a severe decrease in the total unmet demand. The tested measures are as follows:

• •Covering the effective reaches of irrigation canals, land leveling and irrigation at night, removal of aquatic weeds, lining and maintenance of irrigation canals, turning the sugarcane areas to sugar beet, and keeping the actual rice area in the old agricultural lands.
• •Keep the real pumping rates of deep wells equal to the required discharges, control the unofficial withdrawal of deep groundwater, and regular inspection and maintenance of drip irrigation systems in the new agricultural lands.
• •Establishing an acoustic leak detection system with automatic surveying for distribution leaks, and managing the pressure in the distribution system in the domestic water networks.

The unmet demand would be completely covered in the new agricultural lands and in the 750,000-feddan project, if the permitted withdrawal limit of deep groundwater increased.

Based on the deduced conclusions, it was thus recommended to consider all the tested measures in this study. In addition, further alternative measures should be proposed for optimizing water resources system in the future.

Conflict of interest

The authors have declared no conflict of interest.

Compliance with Ethics requirements

This article does not contain any studies with human or animal subjects.