Table 2.
Transitional probabilities and odds ratios
| Transition | Observed frequency | Transition probability | p | Expected frequency | OR | 95% CI for OR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower | Upper | ||||||
| Explore→CTD | 6466 | 0.12† | <.001 | 5686.68 | 1.37 | 1.32 | 1.42 |
| Explore→STD | 2776 | 0.05† | <.001 | 2198.69 | 1.78 | 1.67 | 1.90 |
| Explore→CTP | 6092 | 0.11* | <.001 | 6604.81 | 0.83 | 0.80 | 0.87 |
| Explore→STP | 1723 | 0.03* | <.01 | 1809.09 | 0.90 | 0.85 | 0.97 |
| Explore→FN | 36694 | 0.68* | <.001 | 37451.70 | 0.87 | 0.85 | 0.90 |
| Explore Summaries: | |||||||
| Explore→Drinking | 9242 | 0.17† | <.001 | 7885.38 | 1.52 | 1.47 | 1.57 |
| Explore→Coping | 7815 | 0.14* | <.001 | 8413.91 | 0.84 | 0.81 | 0.87 |
| Teach→CTD | 1621 | 0.07* | <.001 | 2584.08 | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| Teach→STD | 555 | 0.02* | <.001 | 999.11 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| Teach→CTP | 2971 | 0.12 | .50 | 3001.29 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 1.03 |
| Teach→STP | 859 | 0.04 | .13 | 822.07 | 1.06 | 0.98 | 1.15 |
| Teach→FN | 18419 | 0.75† | <.001 | 17018.44 | 1.45 | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| Teach Summaries: | |||||||
| Teach→Drinking | 2176 | 0.09* | <.001 | 3583.20 | 0.50 | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| Teach→Coping | 3830 | 0.16 | .894 | 3823.27 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 1.04 |
| Connect→CTD | 705 | 0.12† | <.001 | 627.48 | 1.15 | 1.06 | 1.25 |
| Connect→STD | 174 | 0.03* | <.001 | 242.60 | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.81 |
| Connect→CTP | 1176 | 0.20† | <.001 | 728.78 | 1.84 | 1.72 | 1.97 |
| Connect→STP | 206 | 0.03 | .63 | 199.61 | 1.04 | 0.90 | 1.19 |
| Connect→FN | 3670 | 0.62* | <.001 | 4132.50 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| Connect Summaries | |||||||
| Connect→Drinking | 879 | 0.15 | .736 | 870.09 | 1.01 | 0.94 | 1.09 |
| Connect→Coping | 1382 | 0.23† | <.001 | 928.41 | 1.70 | 1.59 | 1.81 |
Notes.
†
More probable than chance.
*
Less probable than chance. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess reverse causality (client-to-therapist transitions), and the general pattern of findings was consistent but transition magnitudes were typically lower.