. 2016 Jun 10;203(4):1827–1839. doi: 10.1534/genetics.115.180992

Table 1. Accuracy of estimation methods compared with the exact model evidence.

	−2 log(evidence)						Normalized evidence
	MSD			MAD			MSD			MAD
K	${\hat{T}}_{K}$	${\hat{h}}_{K}$	$L_{K}$	${\hat{T}}_{K}$	${\hat{h}}_{K}$	$L_{K}$	${\hat{T}}_{K}$	${\hat{h}}_{K}$	$L_{K}$	${\hat{T}}_{K}$	${\hat{h}}_{K}$	$L_{K}$
1	0.00e + 00	0.00	28.72	0.00e + 00	0.00	28.72	7.03e-06	−6.50e-03	−2.76e-02	4.59e-05	6.50e-03	2.88e-02
2	−1.54e-03	2.52	42.65	6.99e-03	2.52	42.65	6.67e-07	7.76e-03	4.93e-02	2.37e-04	1.41e-02	6.49e-02
3	−1.95e-03	3.51	46.65	7.71e-03	3.51	46.65	−6.00e-05	3.19e-02	8.96e-02	5.19e-04	3.96e-02	1.37e-01
4	−1.96e-03	3.60	46.74	7.17e-03	3.60	46.74	−8.42e-08	4.07e-02	1.37e-01	6.25e-04	5.54e-02	2.27e-01
5	−1.61e-03	3.37	45.59	6.70e-03	3.37	45.59	−9.85e-06	3.23e-02	1.37e-02	6.09e-04	5.16e-02	1.27e-01
6	−1.39e-03	3.10	44.72	6.73e-03	3.10	44.72	1.59e-05	1.42e-02	−5.46e-02	6.62e-04	4.08e-02	8.33e-02
7	−1.47e-03	2.85	44.78	6.47e-03	2.85	44.78	−7.72e-06	−6.09e-03	−6.99e-02	6.67e-04	3.17e-02	7.97e-02
8	−1.18e-03	2.61	45.11	5.94e-03	2.61	45.11	2.01e-05	−2.56e-02	−6.74e-02	6.28e-04	3.17e-02	8.03e-02
9	−1.21e-03	2.43	45.53	5.99e-03	2.43	45.53	4.17e-05	−4.09e-02	−5.11e-02	6.22e-04	4.23e-02	7.94e-02
10	−1.44e-03	2.26	45.90	5.77e-03	2.26	45.90	−2.17e-05	−5.30e-02	−2.08e-02	5.79e-04	5.31e-02	9.44e-02
Mean	−1.38e-03	2.63	43.64	5.95e-03	2.63	43.64	−1.41e-06	−5.23e-04	−2.12e-04	5.19e-04	3.67e-02	1.00e-01

Shown are mean signed difference (MSD) and mean absolute difference (MAD) of various estimation methods compared with the exact value, obtained by brute force. Formulas for ${\hat{T}}_{K},$ ${\hat{h}}_{K},$ and $L_{K}$ are given in Equations 9, 4, and 5, respectively. Values are shown in log space (columns 2–7) and linear space after exponentiating and normalizing to sum to 1 (columns 8–13). Values of K here denote the value used in the inference step, with each row being an average over 1000 simulations (a more detailed breakdown can be found in Table S1).