ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Correction for “Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Niño 2015,” by Cyril Caminade, Joanne Turner, Soeren Metelmann, Jenny C. Hesson, Marcus S. C. Blagrove, Tom Solomon, Andrew P. Morse, and Matthew Baylis, which appeared in issue 1, January 3, 2017, of Proc Natl Acad Sci USA (114:119–124; first published December 19, 2016; 10.1073/pnas.1614303114).
The authors note that Table 1 appeared incorrectly. The corrected table appears below.
Table 1.
R0 model parameter settings—an index of 1 denotes Ae. aegypti and an index of 2 denotes Ae. albopictus
| Symbol | Description | Constant/formula | Comments | Refs. |
| *a1 | Biting rates (per day) | a1 = 0.0043T + 0.0943 | The linear dependency to temperature was based on estimates for Ae. aegypti in Thailand; biting rates for Ae. albopictus were halved based on observed feeding interval data (18) | 58, 59 |
| *a2 | a2 = 0.5 × a1 | |||
| ɸ1 | Vector preferences (0–1) | ɸ1 = 1[0.88–1] | Most studies show that Ae. aegypti mainly feeds on humans; Ae. albopictus can feed on other wild hosts (cats, dogs, swine…), and large differences are shown for feeding preference between urban and rural settings for this species | 17, 54, 60–65 |
| ɸ2 | ɸ2 = 0.5[0.24–1] | |||
| b1 | Transmission probability—vector to host (0–1) | b1 = 0.5[0.1–0.75] | Based on dengue parameters—estimates from a mathematical review study | 66 |
| b2 | b2 = 0.5[0.1–0.75] | |||
| β1 | Transmission probability—host to vector (0–1) | β1 = 0.1 | Recent laboratory experiment studies generally show low transmission efficiency (in saliva) for various vector/ZIKV strain combinations (South America and Africa); estimates from ref. 15 were used in the final model version | 14–16 |
| β2 | β2 = 0.033 | |||
| *μ1 | Mortality rates (0–1 per day) | μ1 = 1/(1.22 + exp(−3.05 + 0.72T)) + 0.196 if T < 22 °C | Mortality rates were derived for both mosquito vectors from published estimates based on both laboratory and field data, and they were capped to range between 0 and 1 | 67 |
| *μ2 | μ1 = 1/(1.14 + exp(51.4–1.3T)) + 0.192 if T ≥ 22 °C | |||
| μ2 = 1/(1.1 + exp(−4.04 + 0.576T)) + 0.12 if T < 15 °C | ||||
| μ2 = 0.000339T2 − 0.0189T + 0.336 if 15 °C ≤ T < 26.3 °C | ||||
| μ2 = 1/(1.065 + exp(32.2–0.92T)) + 0.0747 if T ≥ 26.3 °C | ||||
| *eip1 | EIP (days) | eip1 = 1/ν1 = 4 + exp(5.15–0.123T) | EIPs for dengue were used because estimates for ZIKV were only available at a single temperature; 50% (100%) of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes were infected by ZIKV after 5 d (10 d) at 29 °C (7). An EIP longer than 7 d was reported in ref. 15 at similar temperature. Model estimates for dengue suggest eip1 ∼ 8–9 d at 29 °C. The 1.03 multiplying factor for Ae. albopictus was derived from ref. 67 | 68 |
| *eip2 | eip2 = 1/ν2 = 1.03(4 + exp(5.15–0.123T)) | |||
| m1 | Vector to host ratios | m1 = 1,000 × prob1 | m was derived as the product of a constant with probability of occurrences published at global scale for both mosquito vectors; Materials and Methods has additional details | 51 |
| m2 | m2 = 1,000 × prob2 | |||
| r | Recovery rate (per day) | r = 1/7 | 69 |
T, temperature.
*
Parameters that are dynamically simulated in space and time over the whole time period.