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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2017 Aug 1.
Published in final edited form as: J Knee Surg. 2015 Nov 20;29(6):458–463. doi: 10.1055/s-0035-1564723

Factors Influencing Graft Choice in Revision ACL Reconstructions: A Propensity Analysis of the MARS Cohort

The MARS Group
PMCID: PMC5467877  NIHMSID: NIHMS861874  PMID: 26588108

Abstract

Background

It has not been known what drives revision ACL reconstruction graft choice in the past. We undertook this study to utilize the MARS (Multicenter ACL Revision Study) cohort and propensity score statistical analysis to determine the drivers of revision ACL reconstruction graft choice. We hypothesized that propensity analysis would demonstrate that individual surgeons still have significant impact on revision ACL reconstruction.

Methods

Twelve hundred patients were enrolled in this longitudinal revision cohort by 83 surgeons at 52 sites. The median age was 26 years and 505 (42%) were females. 1049 (87%) were undergoing their first ACL revision. Graft choice for revision ACL reconstruction for these patients was 48% autograft, 49% allograft, and 3% combination.

The independent variables of this model included gender, age, ethnicity, BMI, smoking status, sport, activity level, previous graft, revision number, surgeon, surgeon’s opinion of failure, previous technical aspects, etc. Surgeon was defined as those who contributed more than 15 patients during the enrollment period. We calculated a propensity score for graft type based on the predicted probability of receiving an allograft from a logistic regression model.

Results

Propensity scores demonstrated that surgeon, prior graft choice, and patient age each had significant influence on which graft type was chosen for the revision ACL reconstruction (p<0.0001). The revising surgeon had the largest impact upon graft choice: approximately 5 times that of the second most important factor (prior graft). If the prior graft type was an autograft, then an allograft was 3.6 times more likely to be chosen for the revision.

Conclusions

This current study demonstrates that the individual surgeon is ultimately the most important factor in revision ACL reconstruction graft choice. Additional statistically significant influences of graft choice included age, gender, previous graft choice, ACL revision number, concurrent MCL/PM repair, and opinion of the previous failure. This demonstrates that if graft choice is determined to impact outcome then surgeons have the ability to change and determine the graft utilized.

INTRODUCTION

Revision ACL (anterior cruciate ligament) reconstruction remains a challenging clinical situation for patients and surgeons. A variety of studies have demonstrated that the outcome of revision ACL reconstruction is inferior to that of primary ACL reconstruction.13,14 The Multicenter ACL Revision Study (MARS) was initiated to prospectively determine revision ACL reconstruction outcomes and the predictors for these results.7 The overarching goal was to determine modifiable predictors of outcome so that surgeons could actively intervene to improve their revision patient’s results.

Criticism of this approach has included a belief that the results of revision ACL reconstruction are predominantly preordained and that no true modifiable aspects of the care exist. Graft choice remains one factor that many surgeons believe significantly impacts outcome including graft rerupture and return to activity. Recently, the MARS group determined that use of autograft resulted in improved sports function and a 2.78 times reduction in graft rerupture.6 It has not been known what drives revision ACL reconstruction graft choice in the past. Many surgeons believe that factors from the previous surgical reconstruction control and/or heavily impact graft choice in the revision setting. Thus, surgeons would have little control over graft choice issues. We undertook this study to utilize the MARS (Multi-center ACL Revision Study) cohort and propensity score statistical analysis to determine the drivers of revision ACL reconstruction graft choice.

Propensity as originally described by Rosenbaum and Rubin in 1983 is the probability of a patient receiving a certain treatment in a nonrandomized setting as determined by a number of other variables.1,10 The propensity score (PS) for a subject, is the conditional probability of the treatment choice given the individual’s covariates. In a RCT treatment assignment is controlled. In an observational (cohort) study treatment is not controlled and thus factors impact decision making. Revision ACL reconstruction offers a rich environment of factors to assess. We hypothesized that propensity analysis would demonstrate that individual surgeons still have significant impact on revision ACL reconstruction despite the limits imposed by the patient’s previous surgery.

METHODS

Study Group

MARS is an NIH-funded prospective longitudinal cohort of revision ACL reconstructions. It is supported by the American Orthopaedic Society of Sports Medicine with 83 surgeons at 52 sites who are currently active. Twelve hundred patients have enrolled (2006–2011) with median age 26 (20, 34 interquartiles). In the cohort 505 (42%) are females. 1049 (87%) were undergoing their first ACL revision. Graft choice for revision ACL reconstruction for these patients was 48% autograft, 49% allograft, and 3% combination.

Statistical Analysis

The independent variables of this model included gender, age, ethnicity, BMI, smoking status, sport, activity level, previous graft, revision number, surgeon, surgeon’s opinion of failure, previous technical aspects including femoral and tibial fixation, etc (see Table 1). Surgeon was defined as those who contributed more than 15 patients during the enrollment period. All other surgeons with less than 15 patients in the cohort were lumped into “others”. 28 surgeons contributed 71% of the patients. The “others” contributed 29%.

Table 1.

List of Variables used in Model

Category Variable Levels

Patient Demographic Variables Age (years) continuous
Gender male, female
Race/Ethnicity asian, black, hispanic, white
BMI continuous
Smoking status never, quit, current
Education level (years) 1 – 16
Marital status single, married, divorced/separated
Work status working full-time, part-time, student, other
Sport (last 2 years) baseball/softball, basketball, football, gymnastics, none, skiing, soccer, volleyball
Sports level (last 2 years) amateur (team or club), high school, non, recreational, semi-pro/pro
Highest sport level achieved amateur (team or club), high school, non, recreational, semi-pro/pro
Baseline activity level (Marx) continuous

Surgical Variables Surgeon individual
Previous ACLR on contralateral knee no, yes
Revision number 1, 2, 3 or greater
Surgeon’s opinion of failure biologic, biologic+technical, biologic+technical+traumatic, biologic+traumatic, other, technical, technical+traumatic, traumatic
Surgeon’s revision his/her own failure no, yes
Cause of technical failure none, femoral tunnel malposition, tibial tunnel malposition, other, none
Prior surgical technique one incision, two incision, arthrotomy
Prior graft type autograft, allograft, other
Prior graft source BTB, soft tissue, combination/other/unknown
Prior ACL Femoral tunnel single tunnel, double tunnel
Prior Femoral Fixation interference screw, cross pin, endobutton, other/combination
Prior Femoral Tunnel Position ideal, ideal (both position and size)-but enlarged tunnel, compromised (position and/or size)
Prior Tibial Fixation interference screw (bioabsorbable), interference screw (nonbioabsorbable), other/combination
Prior Tibial Tunnel Position ideal, ideal (both position and size)-but enlarged tunnel, compromised (position and/or size)
MCL or PM repair/reconstruction no, yes
LCL or PL repair/reconstruction no, yes
PCL repair/reconstruction no, yes

We calculated a PS for graft type based on the predicted probability of receiving an allograft from a logistic regression model. We included this as a covariate in the outcome models (not reported here) after taking the logit transformation, but removed it after observing that it had little effect on the estimated effect of using an allograft instead of an autograft. However, we felt the results of the propensity model would be a novel addition to the existing literature. Restricted cubic splines were used to allow for nonlinear relationships between continuous covariates and the response variable in the propensity model. We used multiple imputations via predictive mean matching to avoid casewise deletion of records that were missing any covariates.(9) We determined chi-squared (X2) values with odds ratios (OR) to predict autograft/allograft choice. Statistical analysis was performed with free open source R statistical software.4,12

RESULTS

Propensity scores demonstrated that surgeon, prior graft choice, and patient age each had significant influence on which graft type was chosen for the revision ACL reconstruction (p<0.0001). The revising surgeon had the largest impact upon graft choice: approximately 5 times that of the second most important factor (prior graft). For example, Surgeon A was found to be 28.6 times more likely to choose an autograft for the ACL revision, while Surgeon B was 31.9 times more likely to choose an allograft. As a comparison, if the prior graft type was an autograft, then an allograft was 3.6 times more likely to be chosen for the revision. Similarly, the older the patient was, an allograft was also 3.6 times more likely chosen (Table 2).

Table 2.

Significant Factors Driving Graft Type used for Revision ACL Reconstruction

Variable Favors choice of ALLOGRAFT Odds Ratio (lower 0.95, upper 0.95) Chi-squared (X2) P value
Surgeon Individual surgeon choice: 149.14 < 0.0001  
Favors Autograft 28.6 (7.2, 111.1)
Favors Allograft 31.9 (3.8, 272.0)
Prior Graft Type Autograft 3.6 (2.0, 6.2) 21.10 < 0.0001  
Age Older age 3.6 (1.6, 7.9) 20.28 < 0.0001  
MCL/PM Repair Concurrent MCL/PM repair 7.4 (2.4, 22.3) 12.36 0.0004
Surgeon Opinion of Failure * 2.9 (1.1, 7.8) 16.85 0.0184
** 6.6 (1.6, 27.6)
*** 3.1 (1.6, 6.2)
Revision Number 2nd time revisions 3.0 (1.6, 5.9) 11.40 0.0033
Gender female 1.8 (1.3, 2.7) 10.12 0.0015
Surgeon Failure Surgeon’s own failure vs. not 2.0 (1.3, 3.2) 9.34 0.0022

Key:

*

(Biologic+Traumatic) vs. (Biologic only); where (Biologic+Traumatic) group favors allograft.

**

(Other) vs. (Biologic); where (Other) group favors allograft.

***

(Traumatic) vs. (Biologic); where (Traumatic) group favors allograft.

Although not as influential, but still significant, were the variables of medial collateral ligament (MCL)/posteromedial (PM) repair, the surgeon’s opinion of failure, the revision number, gender, and if the revision was the surgeon’s own failure. Specifically, an allograft was more likely to be chosen for the following reasons: 1) if the patient had a concurrent MCL/PM repair, 2) if the opinion of failure was due to factors other than isolated biologic failure, 3) if it was the surgeon’s own failure, 4) if it was the patient’s 2nd revision (versus their first), and 5) if the patient was female (p<0.02; Table 2). All other variables were not statistically significant.

DISCUSSION

Propensity scores measure the probability of selecting a treatment dependent upon additional variables. In a RCT treatment assignment is controlled. In an observational (cohort) study treatment is not controlled and thus factors impact decision making. Propensity analysis has been shown to function best when a rich and diverse set of covariates exists. ACL revision reconstruction offers this with multiple factors that impact ACL decision making. Factors influencing ACL graft choice include age, sex, BMI, sport type, concomitant meniscal and chondral injury, and physician input. Surgeons believe graft choice matters, but that the ability to choose a graft is limited by outside factors in the revision setting. And thus, the ability to modify or impact outcome through treatment decisions is limited. This current study dramatically demonstrates that the individual surgeon is the most important factor in revision ACL reconstruction graft choice. (Table 2) If the surgeon desires to use an autograft then depending upon the original graft remaining options may include ipsilateral or contralateral hamstring, bone-patellar tendon-bone, or quadriceps tendon. If the surgeon’s desire is to use allograft then obviously many options are available. Ultimately, though the surgeon is the largest driving force behind graft choice.

Observational studies occur frequently in our field and often are the preferred study design when the research question involves prognosis. However, in observational studies the investigators have no control over treatment assignments. Hence, differences between treatment groups on observed or unobserved covariates might exist, which can lead to biased estimates of treatment effects.2 It has been shown that adjusting for a well-modeled PS (a single number) adjusts for the confounding due to all of the observed covariates that are included in the PS. Such adjustment effectively balances the covariates among treatment groups, and consequently limits confounding bias (treatment by indication bias) to that caused by unmeasured covariates

In observational studies treatments are assigned to the patients without the benefit of randomization. This occurs in situations of retrospective analysis of cohorts or of prospective cohorts where randomization of treatment is neither practical nor possible. We sought in this study to determine what influences the given treatment in the area of graft choice.3 Propensity analysis, which has not been frequently used in orthopedics, allows us to analyze this topic. Despite relatively infrequent use in orthopedics propensity scores have become popular especially in the area of the epidemiological analysis of treatment effects.9 The generalized propensity score determines the probability of receiving a particular treatment based on a variety of variables.5 Our hypothesis that surgeons can impact graft choice was confirmed.

Additionally, there were other issues that contributed to graft choice at a statistically significant level although at less than the impact of the revising surgeon. (Table 2). Prior graft choice obviously can impact future graft choices as the patient may want an autograft following failure of an allograft or desire an allograft to decrease the surgical insult from autograft harvest or may have reasons that they desire avoiding a different type of autograft. For example a patient may want to avoid a patellar tendon autograft after hamstring to avoid an increased risk of kneeling pain.11

Age is the third strongest factor in graft choice. Studies have demonstrated a higher allograft failure rate in young, high activity athletes with primary ACL reconstructions and a lower failure rate in older less active patients.8 While it is not known that this will be true of failure rates in revision ACL reconstruction surgeons may be extrapolating this data to help with graft choice decisions. The surgeon’s opinion of failure impacts choice. A belief that an allograft previously failed due to biological reasons strengthens the reasoning to revise with an autograft.

Allograft choice is more likely in the setting when a patient is undergoing a second or higher revision event. This is intuitive when you consider that with most second or higher revisions at least one if not two autografts may have been utilized thus limiting the ability to subsequently choose an autograft in the future.

Our study has several strengths and a few limitations. The strengths include the prospective nature of the cohort and the significant number of enrolled patients. This allows for a large number of variables to be included in the model, and a rich environment for analysis using propensity scores. An additional strength is the utilization of propensity score analysis to determine the influences of graft choice which is novel and will introduce this concept to a broader audience in orthopedics. This will encourage future use of these interesting statistics analyses. Limitations of our study include the inability to assess the “other” surgeon’s impact on graft choice since they had contributed very few patients to the cohort. Based on the few patients enrolled (<15) these surgeons could not be included in the statistical analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Propensity analysis determined that the most significant influence on allograft versus autograft choice for patients undergoing revision ACL reconstruction in the MARS cohort is surgeon. Additional statistically significant influences of graft choice included age, gender, previous graft choice, ACL revision number, concurrent MCL/PM repair, and opinion of the previous failure. This demonstrates that since graft choice impacts outcome and rerupture as demonstrated by the MARS cohort then surgeons have the ability to change and determine the graft utilized. This will allow the MARS cohort to impact revision ACL reconstruction outcomes through surgeon educational efforts in addition to the more difficult challenge of patient education.

Footnotes

Level of Evidence: Level II (prospective comparative study)

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