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| Arm B | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| fail in stage 1 | fail in stage 2 | pass stage 2 | ||
| Arm A | fail in stage 1 | both losers | both losers | Arm B winner |
| fail in stage 2 | both losers | both losers | Arm B winner | |
| pass stage 2 | Arm A winner | Arm A winner | Arm B winner if Pr(B>A)> δ Arm A winner if Pr(B>A)< (1- δ) |
|
Pr(B>A): posterior probability of the response rate in arm B higher than in arm A
