Table 2.

Indicator values calculated for the quality of predictions for different validation data sets. Definition of the indicator values in Material and Methods, Section 2.2.3)

			SD model				IT model
Data set	Species/compound		LL	MPE (%)	NRMSE	SPPE (%)	LL	MPE (%)	NRMSE	SPPE (%)
Multiple species (MS_V) predicted based on MS_C1	A. aquaticus, imidacloprid	P1	−472.635	20%	16.7%	17%	−533.308	7%	9.8%	−17%
		P2		3%	4.3%	0%		14%	20.2%	−31%
		P3		15%	18.5%	−21%		25%	37.9%	−45%
	C.horaria, imidacloprid	P1	−852.624	n.d.	74.2%	21%	−598.646	22%	22.7%	−7%
		P2		n.d.	69.1%	39%		43%	29.3%	11%
		P3		504%	63.6%	39%		30%	20.6%	15%
	C.obscuripes, imidacloprid	P1	−430.397	n.d.	42.9%	0%	−891.046	71%	239.8%	−76%
		P2		n.d.	85.5%	0%		75%	258.2%	−75%
		P3		49%	49.4%	−4%		65%	177.2%	−75%
	C.dipterum, imidacloprid	P1	−289.423	n.d.	30.1%	0%	−917.499	75%	136.8%	−27%
		P2		n.d.	42.3%	0%		72%	215.1%	−60%
		P3		n.d.	42.1%	0%		72%	217.7%	−61%
	P.minutissima, imidacloprid	P1	−663.204	11%	13.6%	−21%	−695.424	16%	20.6%	−29%
		P2		14%	17.7%	−28%		17%	25.8%	−39%
		P3		16%	27.5%	−53%		17%	31.8%	−60%
Multiple compounds (MC_V) predicted based on MC_C1 (acute)	C.dipterum, imidacloprid	P1	−28.818	19%	22.3%	−23%	−29.811	29%	42.5%	−40%
		P2		17%	19.0%	−20%		24%	35.8%	−40%
	C.dipterum, thiacloprid	P1	−40.701	59%	127.5%	−60%	−41.103	59%	141.2%	−67%
		P2		31%	44.1%	−30%		33%	52.0%	−37%
	C.dipterum, thiametoxam	P1	−26.990	48%	77.0%	−53%	−29.441	52%	114.5%	−77%
		P2		52%	99.4%	−60%		54%	125.4%	−77%
Multiple compounds (MC_V) predicted based on MC_C2 (chronic)	C.dipterum, imidacloprid	P1	−170.030	n.d.	72.7%	27%	−174.501	n.d.	78.1%	27%
		P2		n.d.	76.2%	30%		n.d.	76.7%	30%
	C.dipterum, thiacloprid	P1	−167.871	n.d.	54.2%	0%	−182.411	143%	77.8%	−3%
		P2		n.d.	65.1%	33%		470%	63.5%	30%
	C.dipterum, thiametoxam	P1	−171.581	n.d.	46.4%	0%	−186.249	85%	54.7%	−13%
		P2		n.d.	37.0%	0%		45%	51.5%	−13%

The bold values are larger than a suggested cut-off value of 50%

n.d. not determined because modelled survival fell to zero