Abstract
Functional limitations and provision of long-term care for old persons is most often regarded from a systems level calculating and comparing proportions of old persons in different functional states and on different levels of long-term care. A simulation model has been developed which looks at this from the individual’s point of view. The model calculates the distribution on level of functional limitations combined with level of LTC for a 78 year old man or woman after three, six, nine, twelve and fifteen years (in the Japanese case 5, 10 and 15) given the initial state expressed in those terms. Different assumptions can be made concerning the health development in the population and the structure of the LTC system and thus the effect of these assumptions on the individual level can be explored.
Longitudinal data for the model has been taken from the Swedish SNAC-study, baseline and three year follow up, and from the Japanese NUJLSOA-study, wave 2 and wave 4 five years later. Transition probabilities are calculated by relating individual states between waves. Changes over time are then calculated in the model by matrix multiplication using the Markov assumption. In this way it is also possible to compare individual prospects in the Swedish and Japanese old age populations with regard to expected future functional limitations and LTC care level at a certain age. Examples of results will be presented.