Table 5.
Predicted probabilities of separation within five years of birth derived from discrete-time event history models, by country and union status
| United States | Norway | Sweden | United Kingdom | Austria | France | Italy | Spain | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | .24 | .13 | .07 | .14 | .13 | .13 | .06 | .06 |
| Union-Birth Trajectoriesa | ||||||||
| MB | .19 | .10 | .05 | .09 | .09 | .08 | .05 | .05 |
| CBM | .17 | .10 | .06 | .11 | .18 | .04 | .11 | .20 |
| CB | .35 | .15 | .09 | .23 | .20 | .19 | .17 | .08 |
| Ratio CBM/MB | 0.89 | 1.02 | 1.11 | 1.19 | 2.03 | .47 | 2.09 | 3.70 |
| Ratio CB/MB | 1.85 | 1.49 | 1.64 | 2.48 | 2.21 | 2.37 | 3.43 | 1.43 |
Notes: Predicted probabilities of separation are derived from Model 2 (with all controls) in Table 4, allowing union duration to vary with month, varying union status, and holding all other covariates at their country-specific weighted mean values in Month 1. Monthly conditional probabilities of separation are multiplied to generate estimated proportions separating within five years.
Source: Harmonized Histories and the 2006–2010 and 2011–2013 National Survey of Family Growth (women only, under 45 years). Sample is limited to couples with a first child together within 10 years of interview.
MB = married at birth; CBM = cohabiting at birth and married at t following birth; CB = cohabiting at birth without ever marrying.