In Reply The intent of our comments was not to dismiss projection analyses but rather to point out that it may be difficult to extrapolate accurately from past data to future trends in obesity. Changes in obesity prevalence over time have not followed a readily predictable pattern. Projections can vary according to the starting time point chosen and the statistical model used. Joinpoint analyses can identify past changes in slope but provide little guidance to predict future changes in slope.
Footnotes
Conflict of Interest Disclosures: The authors have completed and submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest and none were reported.
Disclaimer: The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.