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. 2019 Apr 9;14(4):e0214738. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0214738

Epidemiology of multiple sclerosis in Iran: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Milad Azami 1, Mohammad Hossein YektaKooshali 2, Masoumeh Shohani 3, Ali Khorshidi 4, Leily Mahmudi 5,*
Editor: Aristeidis H Katsanos6
PMCID: PMC6456231  PMID: 30964886

Abstract

Background

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is one of the most common neurological disorders and is one of the main causes of disability. The prevalence and incidence of MS in Iran is reported to range from 5.3 to 89/ 100,000and 7 to 148.1/ 100,000, respectively. There are no systematic and meta-analysis studies on MS in Iran. Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the prevalence and incidence of MS in Iran using meta-analysis.

Method

A systematic review of the present study focused on MS epidemiology in Iran based on PRISMA guidelines for systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched eight international databases including Scopus, PubMed, Science Direct, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Google Scholar search engine and six Persian databases for peer-reviewed studies published without time limit until May 2018. Data were analyzed using Comprehensive meta-analysis ver. 2 software. The review protocol has been registered in PROSPERO with ID: CRD42018114491.

Results

According to searching on different databases, 39 (15%) articles finalized. The prevalence of MS in Iran was estimated 29.3/ 100,000 (95%CI: 25.6–33.5) based on random effects model. The prevalence of MS in men and women was estimated to be 16.5/ 100,000 (95%CI: 13.7–23.4) and 44.8/ 100,000 (95%CI: 36.3–61.6), respectively. The incidence of MS in Iran was estimated to be 3.4/ 100,000 (95%CI: 1.8–6.2) based on random effects model. The incidence of MS in men was estimated to be 16.5/ 100,000 (95%CI: 13.7–23.4) and the incidence of MS in women was 44.8/ 100,000 (95%CI: 36.3–61.6). The meta-regression model for prevalence and incidence of MS was significantly higher in terms of year of study (p<0.001).

Conclusions

The results of this study can provide a general picture of MS epidemiology in Iran. The current meta-analysis showed that the prevalence and incidence of MS in Iran is high and is rising over time.

1. Introduction

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a neurodegenerative and immune-mediated demyelinating disease of the human central nervous system[14]. The clinical manifestations of MS include opiate neuritis, central paralysis, sensory imbalance, balance disorder, cognitive impairment, fatigue and sleep disorders[5]. Women are approximately 2–3 times more likely to suffer from MS[6], and most patients are 20 to 50 years old. Residents of Eastern Europe are more likely to suffer from MS compared with residents of Asia, Africa and Latin America[7, 8].

Iran is muslim country in the Middle East with a latitude of 32°00 and a longitude of 53°00 and has 31 provinces. There are various ethnic groups in Iran, including Fars, Kurds, Mazani, Gilak, Lor, Turks, Arabs, and Baluch, and are now united by Iranian culture. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2008, around 1.3 million people had MS worldwide, while in 2013, the prevalence of MS was 73 per 100,000 in the world and was 60 per 100,000 in Iran[9, 10]. At the moment, Iran is well known for its high prevalence of MS in the world, whereas 15 years ago, it was assumed based on the MS slope hypothesis that Iran could be a low-risk area for MS with an incidence of less than 5 per 100,000 people[1113].

Despite numerous studies, the main cause of MS is still unknown. According to a hypothesis, MS carries out an autoimmune attack against self-myelin or oligodendrocytic antigens by macrophages, deadly T cells, Lymphokines, and antibodies when they enter the brain[14]. A combination of genetic and environmental factors such as latitude, vitamin D use, skin color, migration, meal, smoking, occupational exposure to toxins, stress, or even recent studies of specific viral infections such as Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)[15] and bacterial infections like mycoplasma pneumonia [16, 17] may affect this disease[6, 1519].

Basic epidemiological information helps to quickly identify, diagnose and control the disease complications[20]. One of the most important goals of meta-analysis, which results from the combination of existing studies, is to increase the volume of samples and the number of studies, to reduce the difference between the available parameters and the confidence interval, which ultimately leads to solving a problem, especially in the field of medicine. In fact, such studies are a vital link between research studies and decision-making at the bedside or policies[2123].

The prevalence of MS in Iran has been reported to be 5.3–89 per 100,000[2, 5, 10, 11, 13, 21, 22, 2446]. Considering the above-mentioned issues, controversy in the prevalence of MS, the lack of global access to the precise prevalence of MS in Iran, as well as expressing the final conclusion for policy making and operational planning in Iran, this study was conducted to estimate the prevalence and incidence of MS in Iran by systematically reviewing all available documentations and their combination through meta-analysis.

2. Materials and methods

2.1. Study protocol

The present systematic review focused on MS epidemiology in Iran based on PRISMA guidelines [47](S1 File) for systematic review and meta-analysis. All the steps of research, including search, selection of studies, qualitative assessment, and data extraction were done independently by two researchers. The agreement was reached by group discussion. The protocol of this review registered at: International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews(PROSPERO) (https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/) Identifier: CRD42018114491 [48, 49](S2 File).

2.2. Search strategy

The search was performed by two researchers independently. We searched the titles and abstracts of articles in six Persian databases including Scientific Information Database (SID) (http://www.sid.ir/), Barakat Knowledge Network System (http://health.barakatkns.com), (Iranian Research Institute for Information Science and Technology (IranDoc) (https://irandoc.ac.ir), Regional Information Center for Science and Technology (RICST) (http://en.ricest.ac.ir/), Magiran (http://www.magiran.com/), Iranian National Library (http://www.nlai.ir/) and eight international databases including Scopus, PubMed/Medline, Science Direct, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Embase, PsycINFO as well as Google Scholar search engine for peer-reviewed studies published without time limit until May 2018. The keywords used were 'incidence', 'prevalence', 'epidemiology', 'MS', 'multiple sclerosis' and 'Iran'. Boolean operators (AND & OR) were used to search by a combination of words. A sample of search strategy in PubMed database is shown in Appendix 1. The list of references of the studies was searched manually for additional reports.

2.3. Inclusion criteria (PICO)

Inclusion criteria according to PICO (Problem or Population, Interventions, Comparison and Outcome) [50, 51]: (1) Population: all Iranian population, in all age ranges and both genders; (2) Intervention: diagnosis of MS by Poser or McDonald criteria for confirmed MS; (3) Comparison: variable aimed for incidence and prevalence of MS such as gender, province, year of study and etc; (4) Outcome: Estimate the prevalence and incidence of MS.

2.4. Exclusion criteria

The inclusion criteria were all epidemiological studies on MS. The exclusion criteria included: 1. non-random sample size; 2. sample size other than Iranian population; 3. Articles published in languages other than Persian and English; 4. Not relevant to the subject; 5. qualitative studies; case report; review articles, case reports and interventional studies, and 6. duplicate articles.

2.5. Quality assessment

Researchers assessed the quality of the selected articles using a scoring system based on the 8-item the modified Newcastle Ottawa Scale (NOS) for non-randomized studies [52] (S2 File). Each question was given a score between 0 and 1. Points 0–5, 6–7 and 8–9 were considered low quality, moderate quality and high quality, respectively. The minimum score for entering the quantitative meta-analysis process was 5 and the articles that acquired the minimum qualitative assessment score entered the process of data extraction and meta-analysis.

2.6. Screening and data extraction

Two independent researchers (Azami M, YektaKooshali MH) screened all the articles retrieved by the search strategy based on title and abstract for eligibility according to inclusion and exclusion criteria. Any contradiction between the two researchers was discussed and finally, a consensus was reached. In addition, if necessary, the full text was examined further for more clarification at this stage. In the next step, the researchers were provided with the full text of eligible articles. Each qualified full text was reviewed independently by two researchers and a third expert (Expert-epidemiologist) was there to provide consultations on disagreements between the two researchers.

Data extraction was done by the researchers using a pre-prepared form. The data for the study included the first author, year of publication, year of study, study setting, location, sample size, geographical area, province, the prevalence of MS and MS diagnostic method, which was extracted independently by two researchers and blinded to the author's name, institute, and journal. If necessity, further information, and raw data were requested by contacting the author (first author, corresponding author or contacting the authors' department) (Table 1).

Table 1. Characteristics of studies into the meta-analysis.

Ref. First author, Published Year * Year of Study Study Type Place Diagnostic criteria Sample size
[33] Etemadifar M, 2006 2004–5 Cross-sectional Isfahan McDonald 3923255
[67] Sahraian MA, 2010 1999–2010 Cross-sectional Tehran McDonald 13422366
[55] Elhami SR, 2011 1989–2009 Population based Tehran Poser
(up to 2001)
McDonald
14103853
[36] Heydarpour P, 2013 1991–2011 Population based Tehran McDonald 14103853
[45] Saadatnia M, 2007 2003–6 Cross-sectional Isfahan McDonald 3923255
[34] Etemadifar M, 2010 2003–2010 Cross-sectional Isfahan McDonald 4804458
[59] Ghandehari K, 2010 2009 Population based RazaviKhorasan McDonald 5593079
[59] Ghandehari K, 2010 2009 Population based North Khorasan McDonald 811572
[59] Ghandehari K, 2010 2009 Population based Southern Khorasan McDonald 636420
[2] Abedini M, 2008 2007 Cross-sectional Mazandaran McDonald 2893087
[35] Hashemilar M, 2011 2005–9 Population based East Azerbaijan McDonald 3724620
[40] Moghtaderi A, 2012 1996–2006 Cross-sectional Sistan and Balouchestan McDonald 1346367
[46] Sharafaddinzadeh N, 2012 1997–2009 Cross-sectional Khuzestan McDonald 4200000
[31] Etemadifar M, 2013 2003–2013 Population based Isfahan McDonald 4879312
[62] Kalanie H, 2003 1996–2001 Cross-sectional Tehran Poser
[26] Jajvandian R, 2011 2005–2011 Population based North Khorasan - 867727
[54] Ebrahimi HA, 2013 2013 Population based Kerman - 2947346
[39] Moghaddam AH, 2013 2013 Population based Kerman McDonald 207192
[68] Saman-Nezhad B,2012 2012 Population based Kermanshah - 851405
[25] Majdinasab N, 2012 2005–2011 Population based Khuzestan McDonald 4531720
[43] Rezaali S, 2013 2011 Population based Qom Poser (up to 2001) and
McDonald
1151672
[61] Izadi S, 2015 2013 Population based Fars - 4551718
[53] Ashtari F, 2011 2007 Cross-sectional Isfahan
[37] Maghzi A, 2010 2003–2007 Population based Isfahan McDonald’s criteria
and 2005 revisions
4559256
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Isfahan) 2006–2013 Population based Isfahan NR 4879312
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Tehran) 2006–2013 Population based Tehran NR 12183391
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Fars) 2006–2013 Population based Fars NR 4596658
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Alborz) 2006–2013 Population based Alborz NR 2412513
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Markazi) 2006–2013 Population based Markazi NR 1413959
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (ChaharMahaa) 2006–2013 Population based ChaharMahaal and Bakhtiari NR 895263
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (East Azerbaijan) 2006–2013 Population based East Azerbaijan NR 3724263
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Semnan) 2006–2013 Population based Semnan NR 631218
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Hamadan) 2006–2013 Population based Hamadan NR 1758268
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Qom) 2006–2013 Population based Qom NR 1151672
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (West Azerbaijan) 2006–2013 Population based West Azerbaijan NR 3080576
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014(Yazd) 2006–2013 Population based Yazd NR 1074428
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014(Kordestan) 2006–2013 Population based Kordestan NR 1493645
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014(Ardabil) 2006–2013 Population based Ardabil NR 1248488
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Kohgiluyeh) 2006–2013 Population based Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad NR 658621
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Mazandaran) 2006–2013 Population based Mazandaran NR 3073943
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Guilan) 2006–2013 Population based Guilan NR 2480874
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Kerman) 2006–2013 Population based Kerman NR 2938988
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Khorasan-Razavi) 2006–2013 Population based Razavi Khorasan NR 5994402
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Bushehr) 2006–2013 Population based Bushehr NR 103949
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Ilam) 2006–2013 Population based Ilam NR 557599
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Khuzestan) 2006–2013 Population based Khuzestan NR 4531720
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Golestan) 2006–2013 Population based Golestan NR 1777014
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Lorestan) 2006–2013 Population based Lorestan NR 1754244
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Zanjan) 2006–2013 Population based Zanjan NR 1015734
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014(Kermanshah) 2006–2013 Population based Kermanshah NR 1945227
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Hormozgan) 2006–2013 Population based Hormozgan NR 1578183
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (North Khorasan) 2006–2013 Population based North Khorasan NR 867727
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (South Khorasan) 2006–2013 Population based South Khorasan NR 662534
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014(Qazvin) 2006–2013 Population based Qazvin NR 1201565
[32] Etemadifar M, 2014 (Sistan and Baluchestan) 2006–2013 Population based Sistan and Baluchestan NR 2534327
[44] Saadat SMS, 2013 2010 Cross-sectional Guilan McDonald 2480874
[42] Raiesi R, 2014 1991–2011 Population based Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad McDonald 895263
[60] Izadi S, 2015 2011 Population based Fars NR 4596658
[5] Nedjat S, 2006 2006 Population based Tehran NR 7803883
[71] Yousefi B, 2017 2005–2009 Population based East Azerbaijan McDonald 3724620
[71] Yousefi B, 2017 2010–2014 Population based East Azerbaijan McDonald 3909652
[64] Mazdeh M, 2016 2015–2018 Population based Hamadan McDonald
[70] Tolou-Ghamari Z, 2015 2010–2014 Population based Isfahan McDonald 4879312
[69] Shahbeigi S, 2012 2010–2014 Population based 12 different major provinces of Iran McDonald 46695319
[63] Khamarnia M, 2016 2010 Population based Fars McDonald 4596658
[63] Khamarnia M, 2016 2011 Population based Fars McDonald 4596658
[63] Khamarnia M, 2016 2012 Population based Fars McDonald 4596658
[13] Dehghani R, 2015 2006 Population based All Iran McDonald 70495782
[13] Dehghani R, 2015 2011 Population based All Iran McDonald 75149669
[57] Eskandarieh Sh, 2017 2013 Population based Tehran McDonald 12559000
[57] Eskandarieh Sh, 2017 2014 Population based Tehran McDonald 12559000
[57] Eskandarieh Sh, 2017 2014 Population based Tehran McDonald 12559000
[66] Sabbagh S, 2017 2015–2018 Population based Khuzestan McDonald 957133
[65] Mousavizadeh A, 2017 2015–2018 Population based Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad McDonald 713052
[56] Eskandarieh Sh, 2017 2015 Population based Tehran McDonald 13267637
[58] Eskandarieh Sh, 2018 2017 Population based Tehran McDonald 13441124

NR: Not reported

* Repetitive studies have been included and estimated the prevalence and incidence for more than 1 year and also regions. Each data was considered separately because of assessing the slope of prevalence and incidence in the years and estimating which region is the highest or lowest.

2.7. Data analysis

To evaluate the heterogeneity of the studies, Cochran's Q and I2 tests were used. Heterogeneity was defined as I2> 50% and the Cochran's Q test was defined as < 0.05. Therefore, the random effects model was used to estimate the prevalence and incidence of MS with high heterogeneity. To estimate the effect of gender, we used the total number and the number of events (MS) in men and women groups and we calculated the odds ratio (OR) and 95% CI. In this study, a sensitivity analysis was also performed to verify the stability of the data. In order to find the source of heterogeneity, a subgroup analysis was conducted in terms of geographic area, year of study, province, and study setting while a meta-regression model was used for the prevalence and incidence of MS in terms of year of studies. Begg and Egger’s tests were used to assess publication bias. Data were analyzed using Comprehensive meta-analysis ver. 2 software. P<0.05 was considered significant.

3. Results

3.1. Study characteristics and methodological quality

Of 392 studies found in the initial search using the search strategy, 138 potentially relevant studies were found to be eligible for retrieval and evaluation. By examining the full text of the studies, 65 studies were excluded due to non-MS or non-Iranian patients (27), non-randomized (18) and inadequate data according to the data extraction checklist (14), articles to the editor without original data, review and case report (5) and low quality (1). Finally, 39 articles (included 103 studies for prevalence and 34 studies for incidence) entered the meta-analysis process after qualitative assessment. The flow diagram of the identification and selection of studies is illustrated in (Fig 1) and the characteristics of studies are shown in (Table 1) [2, 5, 13, 25, 26, 3137, 39, 40, 4246, 5371].

Fig 1. Study flow diagram.

Fig 1

3.2. Pooled prevalence of MS and sensitivity analysis

The total heterogeneity was high (I2 = 99.92% and P< 0.001). The prevalence of MS in Iran was estimated to be 29.3/ 100,000 (95% CI: 25.6–33.5) based on random effects model (Fig 2). The lowest and highest prevalence was found in studies in Southern Khorasan in 2009 (5.3/ 100,000) and Isfahan in 2013 (89/ 100,000), respectively (Figs 2 and 3). The sensitivity analysis of the prevalence of MS and its 95% CI was estimated irrespective of one study at a time, and the results showed that the pooled estimate was robust (S1 Fig).

Fig 2. The prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Iran.

Fig 2

Random effect model.

Fig 3. Distribution of MS in Iran based on geographical classification.

Fig 3

High risk 30/100,000 intermediate risk 5-30/100,000 and low risk 5/100,000 (as Wade scaled prevalence of MS globally [72]).

3.3. Subgroup analysis of MS prevalence based on region, province, study design, and year of study

The Subgroup analysis of MS prevalence in Iran is shown in (Table 2) and (S1S6 Figs). Significant difference was observed in the prevalence of MS in the geographical regions (P< 0.001) (S2 Fig), province (P< 0.001) (S3 Fig), study design (P = 0.015) (S4 Fig), and year of study (P< 0.001) (S5 Fig).

Table 2. MS prevalence based on region, gender, provinces, year of study and design.

Variable Studies (N)* Sample (N) Heterogeneity 95% CI Pooled
(Per 100,000)
MS All I2 P-Value
Region 12 different 1 19524 46695319 - - 41.2–42.4 42.4
All Iran 2 51962 145645451 99.97 < 0.001 20.4–57.4 34.2
Center 47 174229 368149059 99.94 < 0.001 28.6–43.1 35.1
East 8 3756 24011421 99.62 < 0.001 5.3–18.1 9.8
North 14 11640 32250226 99.50 < 0.001 18.7–32.0 24.5
South 13 17466 40504544 99.69 < 0.001 25.6–44.6 33.8
West 7 4237 12534786 98.01 < 0.001 22.4–41.9 30.6
Test for subgroup differences: Q = 45.66, df(Q) = 6, P< 0.001
Gender Male 31 25711 76907082 94.77 <0.0001 13.3–20.5 16.5
Female 31 74356 75432131 99.87 < 0.001 36.2–55.4 44.8
Rate ratio of female to male: OR = 3.01 (2.79–2 = 3.24, P<0.001)
Province 12 different major provinces of Iran 1 19524 46695319 - - 41.2–42.4 41.8
Alborz 1 1737 2412513 - - 68.7–75.5 72.0
All Iran 2 51962 145645451 99.97 < 0.001 20.4–57.4 34.2
Ardabil 1 506 1248488 - - 37.1–44.2 40.5
Bushehr 1 33 103949 - - 22.6–44.7 31.7
Chahar Mahaal and Bakhtiari 1 537 895263 - - 55.1–65.3 60.0
East Azerbaijan 4 6971 1508315 99.74 < 0.001 25.8–67.4 41.7
Fars 4 11867 18441692 99.12 < 0.001 52.3–76.9 63.4
Golestan 1 373 1777014 - - 19.0–23.2 21.0
Guilan 2 1643 4961748 97.19 < 0.001 24.5–43.9 32.8
Hamadan 1 985 1758268 - - 52.6–59.6 56.0
Hormozgan 1 300 1578183 - - 17.0–21.3 19.0
Ilam 1 162 557599 - - 24.9–33.9 29.1
Isfahan 7 21302 32559015 99.79 < 0.001 43.5–79.3 58.7
Kerman 3 2102 6085168 85.39 < 0.001 31.0–40.4 35.4
Kermanshah 2 818 3890454 86.51 < 0.001 17.4–25.3 21.0
Khuzestan 4 3164 14295552 98.11 < 0.001 15.3–26.2 20.1
Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad 4 1163 2030302 96.72 < 0.001 40.3–76.8 55.7
Kordestan 1 612 1493645 - - 37.9–44.4 41.0
Lorestan 1 351 1754244 - - 18.0–22.2 20.0
Markazi 1 862 1413959 - - 57.0–65.2 61.0
Mazandaran 2 1781 5996375 99.43 < 0.001 14.4–53.9 27.9
North Khorasan 3 332 2547026 92.70 < 0.001 8.3–18.8 12.5
Qazvin 1 192 1201565 - - 13.9–18.4 16.0
Qom 2 1180 2303344 0 0.60 48.8–54.2 51.2
Razavi Khorasan 2 2879 11587481 99.82 < 0.001 7.9–59.0 21.6
Semnan 1 353 631218 - - 50.4–62.1 55.9
Sistan and Balouchestan 5 771 11761406 75.34 < 0.001 5.6–7.5 6.5
South Khorasan 2 140 1298954 99.77 < 0.001 3.2–27.3 9.3
Tehran 28 146270 322611718 99.96 < 0.001 20.7–36.7 27.6
West Azerbaijan 1 1309 3080576 - - 20.7–36.7 27.6
Yazd 1 440 1074428 - - 37.3–45.0 41.0
Zanjan 1 193 1015734 - - 16.5–21.9 19.0
Test for subgroup differences: Q = 2559.92, df(Q) = 32, P< 0.001
Year of study < 1990 2 1110 17539552 69.13 0.072 5.7–7.0 6.3
1990–1994 5 4382 47222144 97.14 < 0.001 7.6–10.8 9.1
1995–1999 5 9763 53251981 98.62 < 0.001 15.1–21.3 17.9
2000–2004 5 20412 60955029 99.27 < 0.001 27.9–38.6 32.8
2005–2009 20 58545 182277428 99.82 < 0.001 15.5–23.6 19.1
2010–2014 51 151690 280165726 99.81 < 0.001 35.8–45.8 40.5
2015–2018 4 36912 28378946 99.76 < 0.001 50.7–85.0 65.6
Test for subgroup differences: Q = 744.07, df(Q) = 6, P< 0.001
Study design Population based 82 266175 627821102 99.83 < 0.001 27.0–35.9 31.1
Cross-sectional 10 16639 41969704 99.92 < 0.001 11.7–27.3 17.9
Test for subgroup differences: Q = 5.89, df(Q) = 1, P = 0.015

N: Number; CI: confidence interval

* Some studies have been included and estimated the prevalence and incidence for more than 1 year and also regions. Each data was considered separately because of assessing the slope of prevalence and incidence in the years and estimating which region is the highest or lowest.

3.4. Prevalence of MS based on gender

The prevalence of MS in men and women was estimated to be 16.5/ 100,000 (95% CI: 13.7–23.4) and 44.8/ 100,000 (95% CI: 36.3–61.6), respectively (Fig 4). The OR female/ male of MS prevalence was estimated to be 3.01 (95% CI: 2.79–3.24, P< 0.001) (Table 2) (S6 Fig).

Fig 4.

Fig 4

The prevalence of multiple sclerosis in men (A) and women (B). Random effect model.

3.5. Pooled incidence of MS and sensitivity analysis

The total heterogeneity was high (I2 = 99.96% and P< 0.001). The incidence of MS in Iran was estimated according to 34 studies to be 3.4/ 100,000 (95% CI: 1.8–6.2) based on random effects model (Fig 5). The sensitivity analysis results are shown in (S7 Fig).

Fig 5. The incidence of multiple sclerosis in Iran.

Fig 5

Random effect model.

3.6. Subgroup analysis of MS incidence based on region, province, study design, and year of study

The Subgroup analysis of MS incidence in Iran is shown in (Table 3). Significant difference was observed in the prevalence of MS in the geographical regions (P < 0.001) (S8 Fig), province (P< 0.001) (S9 Fig) and year of study (P< 0.001) (S10 Fig), but study design was no significant difference (P = 0.123) (S11 Fig).

Table 3. MS incidence based on region, gender, provinces, year of study and design.

Variable Studies (N)* Sample (N) Heterogeneity 95% CI Pooled
(Per 100,000)
MS All I2 P-Value
Region Center 26 41134 284522333 99.97 < 0.001 2.0–7.6 3.9
East 4 94 9227079 67.80 0.025 0.7–1.4 1.0
South 4 1002 17860233 98.43 < 0.001 2.9–8.2 4.9
Test for subgroup differences: Q = 28.94, df(Q) = 2, P< 0.001
Gender Male 31 2158 136555427 99.87 < 0.001 1.0–1.4 1.2
Female 31 76156 75432131 99.87 < 0.001 39.3–59.1 48.2
Rate ratio of female to male: OR = 3.04 (2.85–3.24, P< 0.001)
Province Fars 3 908 13585254 97.40 < 0.001 4.2–9.6 6.3
Isfahan 2 574 8802567 98.81 < 0.001 2.4–13.5 5.7
Khuzestan 1 94 4274979 - - 1.8–2.7 2.2
Sistan and Balouchestan 4 94 9227079 67.80 0.025 0.7–1.4 1.0
Tehran 24 40560 275719766 99.97 < 0.001 1.8–7.6 3.7
Test for subgroup differences: Q = 49.07, df(Q) = 4, P< 0.001
Year of study < 1990 1 60 8769776 - - 0.5–0.9 0.7
1990–1994 5 586 47222144 93.90 < 0.001 0.8–1.6 1.2
1995–1999 5 1402 53251981 79.37 < 0.001 2.3–2.9 2.6
2000–2004 6 2919 65291907 90.76 < 0.001 3.9–5.0 4.4
2005–2009 11 3474 76707337 98.09 < 0.001 2.2–3.7 2.8
2010–2014 5 13887 46925376 99.96 < 0.001 2.0–56.7 10.6
2015–2018 1 19902 13441124 - - 146.0–150.1 148.1
Test for subgroup differences: Q = 10943.73, df(Q) = 6, P< 0.001
Study design Population based 27 41468 289305020 98.66 < 0.001 2.0–7.7 4.0
Cross-sectional 7 762 22304625 99.97 < 0.001 0.9–3.8 1.8
Test for subgroup differences: Q = 2.38, df(Q) = 1, P = 0.123

N: Number; CI: confidence interval

* Some studies have been included and estimated the prevalence for more than 1 year and also regions. Each data was considered separately because of assessing the slope of prevalence in the years and estimating which region is the highest or lowest.

3.7. Incidence of MS based on gender

The incidence of MS in men was estimated to be 16.5/ 100,000 (95% CI: 13.7–23.4) and the incidence of MS in women was 44.8/ 100,000 (95% CI: 36.3–61.6) (Fig 6). The OR female/male of MS incidence was estimated to be 3.04 (2.85–3.24, P< 0.001) (Table 2) (S12 Fig).

Fig 6.

Fig 6

The incidence of multiple sclerosis in men (A) and women (B). Random effect model.

3.8. Meta-regression

The meta-regression model for prevalence and incidence of MS was significantly higher in terms of year of study [(meta-regression coefficient: 0.065, 95% CI 0.053 to 0.077, P< 0.001) for prevalence of MS and (meta-regression coefficient: 0.100, 95% CI 0.063 to 0.136, P< 0.001) for incidence of MS] (Fig 7). Moreover, the meta-regression model for prevalence and incidence of MS based on the year was also studied in men [(meta-regression coefficient: 0.202, 95% CI 0.157 to 0.248, P< 0.001) for prevalence of MS and (meta-regression coefficient: 0.065, 95% CI 0.046 to 0.0840, P< 0.001) for incidence of MS] and women [(meta-regression coefficient: 0.216, 95% CI 0.169 to 0.264, P< 0.001) for prevalence of MS and (meta-regression coefficient: 0.219, 95% CI 0.176 to 0.263, P< 0.001) for incidence of MS] and it was increasing significantly (S13 and S14 Figs).

Fig 7. Meta-regression of MS in Iran according to year of studies.

Fig 7

Prevalence (A) and incidence (B).

3.9. Publication bias

Publication bias in the studies of incidence (Egger< 0.001, and Begg’s< 0.001) and prevalence (Egger< 0.001, and Begg’s = 0.045) of MS was significant (S15 Fig).

4. Discussion

The present study is the first systematic review and meta-analysis on the epidemiology of MS in Iran. According to the results of the present meta-analysis, the prevalence and incidence of MS in Iran is estimated to be 29.3/ 100,000 and 3.4/ 100,000, which is more than some Middle Eastern countries (Oman, Libya, Lebanon, Iraq, Kuwait, and Tunisia)[7378] and less than some other countries (UAE, city of Amman in Jordan and Saudi Arabia) [7981]. However, it should be noted that most studies in our meta-analysis process were based on data from MS centers, and the lack of recording the information of some people with MS was due to non-compulsory membership in this center and the real prevalence of MS is expected to be greater than this figure. In 2016, Nasr et al. [41] investigated the prevalence of MS among Iranian migrants. The prevalence of MS among Iranian migrants was 21/ 100,000 in Mumbai (India) in 1985 and 433/ 100,000 in British Columbia (Canada) in 2012. In five different studies, the MS prevalence in the studied areas was reported from 1.33 in Mumbai (India) to 240 in British Columbia (Canada)[8286]. The acculturative stress in migrants may help to relate the onset of illness and migration. The acculturative stress is the tension or pressure associated with the experience of a second culture that may have adverse effects on physical or mental health [87] and shows that stress and anxiety have a potential role in MS development[88]. Nish et al. recently showed in a study that acculturative stress is related to higher inflammatory markers in a Chinese migrant population[89].

In the past, the behavior and distribution of MS disease were associated with latitude and was reported to be lower in areas with a higher latitude. Overall, according to a report by WHO in 2008, the highest reported MS prevalence was in North America and Europe, and the lowest reported MS prevalence was in countries near the equator. However, this pattern is changing and areas with lower prevalence are changing to areas with higher prevalence[10, 15, 18, 90]. In the present study, there was a significant difference between the five geographical regions of Iran in terms of the prevalence and incidence of MS based on the results of the initial studies.

Based on the present meta-analysis, the OR of prevalence and incidence of MS in women was 2.52 and 3.04, respectively compared with men, which was a significant relationship (P< 0.001). This result is similar to the results in previous studies [21, 38, 55, 9193].

According to the meta-regression model, the prevalence and incidence of MS in Iran increased significantly (p< 0.001) with an increase in year of studies[21, 38, 9193].

Various factors such as the lack of prevention and screening programs can be important factors in increasing the prevalence of the disease. In addition to changes in the pattern of food consumption, food quality has also changed a lot recently [10, 13, 30]. According to the WHO, the use of tobacco, fat, salt and sugar higher than the limit in foods that cause overweight and obesity, industrialization, urbanization and economic development can play a significant role in the development of chronic diseases[94]. In a study in the United States on 8983 MS patients, it was found that 25% of patients were obese and 31.3% were overweight. In addition, 18.2% were at risk of alcohol misuse by themselves or their relatives[95].

Since there are no particular laws and regulations on the purchase and use of chemicals in Iran, they are easily accessible to people and this may increase the risk of diseases such as MS, which is caused by exposure to chemicals. Although in some studies, contact with industrial solvents has been identified as a risk factor for MS, it has not yet been confirmed for sure[9698].

The existence of particles such as PM10 in the air of Iranian cities[10, 28, 30, 99102], natural radiation of radon from soil (Ramsar, Iran) [103] and unsupervised use of decorative stones and granite in Iran[27, 104] may increase the risk of MS. However, few studies have been conducted regarding the relationship between the above parameters and MS.

According to the Ministry of Health in Iran, the rate of smoking has risen to about 60 billion cigarettes per year[29, 105]. Inhaling cigarette smoke exacerbates the effect on chronic diseases [106, 107]. According to an ecological study by Dehghani et al. in Iran, the prevalence of illness is higher in provinces where cigarette smoking is higher among males[13]. Since cigarette smoking increases the frequency and duration of respiratory infections and it causes MS relapse[37], the risk of cigarette smoking for MS with an OR of 1.55, 95% CI [1.48–1.62], P<0.001 was confirmed in the recent meta-analysis.

According to the WHO, the prevalence of MS is higher in countries with higher income levels. However, the diseases may progress more in less developed countries due to less access to diagnostic facilities, although the disparity is so high that scarce diagnostic facilities cannot be considered as the main factor[108].

Studies have shown that vitamin D deficiency is inversely related to the risk of MS [109, 110] and its deficiency is an epidemic, which affects 20–25% of the population in Asia, America, Canada, Europe and Australia[111]. This is becoming acuter in the Middle East because of changes in lifestyle conditions and less sunlight[112]. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses in Iran have reported a high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency[91, 92].

The period of MS is often unpredictable, but some factors can predict a patient's prognosis. The indicators of a good prognosis can be female gender, those with a history of disease before the age of 35, those who were only attacked in one area of the brain, those who had no brain stem involvement and patients who had recovered after the attacks[10]. To achieve successful symptom control, multiple controls are needed to prevent or stop the symptoms. Effective communication, training, exercise, professional support, and pharmacological interventions are vital for effective control of multiple sclerosis symptoms.

5. Limitations

1. The insensitivity of internal databases to operators “AND” and “OR” to search for the combination. 2. Since Tehran is the main medical center of many cities and provinces, patients in the studies in Tehran, are not just from Tehran.

3. No separation of rural and urban prevalence of MS

6. Conclusion

The present meta-analysis showed that the prevalence and incidence of MS in Iran is high (as Wade scaled prevalence of MS globally[72]) and is rising over time. The results of this study provide useful information for neurologists and health policy makers and can provide a general overview of MS epidemiology in Iran.

Appendix 1: PubMed search strategy

  1. Exp. 'Epidemiology'

  2. Exp.'Prevalence'

  3. Exp.'Incidence’'

  4. Exp.MS'

  5. Exp.'Multiple Sclerosis '

  6. Exp.'Iran'

  7. 1 OR 2 OR 3

  8. 4 OR 5

  9. 7 AND 8 AND 9

Supporting information

S1 File. PRISMA checklist.

(DOC)

S2 File. The review protocol which has been registered in PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews.

(PDF)

S3 File. Newcastle-Ottawa scale checklist.

(PDF)

S1 Fig. Sensitivity analysis for prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Iran.

(TIF)

S2 Fig. Subgroup analysis for multiple sclerosis prevalence based on region.

(TIF)

S3 Fig. Subgroup analysis for multiple sclerosis prevalence based on province.

(TIF)

S4 Fig. Subgroup analysis for multiple sclerosis prevalence based on study design.

(TIF)

S5 Fig. Subgroup analysis for multiple sclerosis prevalence based on study year.

(TIF)

S6 Fig

The OR female to male of MS prevalence (A) and incidence (B).

(TIF)

S7 Fig. Sensitivity analysis for prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Iran.

(TIF)

S8 Fig. Subgroup analysis for multiple sclerosis incidence based on region.

(TIF)

S9 Fig. Subgroup analysis for multiple sclerosis incidence based on province.

(TIF)

S10 Fig. Subgroup analysis for multiple sclerosis incidence based on study year.

(TIF)

S11 Fig. Subgroup analysis for multiple sclerosis incidence based on study design.

(TIF)

S12 Fig. The OR female/male of MS incidence.

(TIF)

S13 Fig

Prevalence of Multiple Sclerosis in Iran in terms of men (A) and women (B).

(TIF)

S14 Fig

Incidence of Multiple Sclerosis in Iran in terms of men (A) and women (B).

(TIF)

S15 Fig

Publication bias for prevalence studies (A) and update (B) multiple sclerosis in Iran.

(TIF)

Acknowledgments

Hereby, we express our deepest sense of gratitude to Ilam University of Medical Sciences for their scientific supports.

Data Availability

All relevant data are within the manuscript and its Supporting Information files.

Funding Statement

About funding, honestly we didn’t fund by any institutions and individual persons.

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Associated Data

This section collects any data citations, data availability statements, or supplementary materials included in this article.

Supplementary Materials

S1 File. PRISMA checklist.

(DOC)

S2 File. The review protocol which has been registered in PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews.

(PDF)

S3 File. Newcastle-Ottawa scale checklist.

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S1 Fig. Sensitivity analysis for prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Iran.

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S2 Fig. Subgroup analysis for multiple sclerosis prevalence based on region.

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S3 Fig. Subgroup analysis for multiple sclerosis prevalence based on province.

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S4 Fig. Subgroup analysis for multiple sclerosis prevalence based on study design.

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S5 Fig. Subgroup analysis for multiple sclerosis prevalence based on study year.

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S6 Fig

The OR female to male of MS prevalence (A) and incidence (B).

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S7 Fig. Sensitivity analysis for prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Iran.

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S8 Fig. Subgroup analysis for multiple sclerosis incidence based on region.

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S9 Fig. Subgroup analysis for multiple sclerosis incidence based on province.

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S10 Fig. Subgroup analysis for multiple sclerosis incidence based on study year.

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S11 Fig. Subgroup analysis for multiple sclerosis incidence based on study design.

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S12 Fig. The OR female/male of MS incidence.

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S13 Fig

Prevalence of Multiple Sclerosis in Iran in terms of men (A) and women (B).

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S14 Fig

Incidence of Multiple Sclerosis in Iran in terms of men (A) and women (B).

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S15 Fig

Publication bias for prevalence studies (A) and update (B) multiple sclerosis in Iran.

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Data Availability Statement

All relevant data are within the manuscript and its Supporting Information files.


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