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Diagnostic and Prognostic Research logoLink to Diagnostic and Prognostic Research
. 2018 Jan 10;2:1. doi: 10.1186/s41512-017-0019-9

Weight loss as a predictor of cancer and serious disease in primary care: an ISAC-approved CPRD protocol for a retrospective cohort study using routinely collected primary care data from the UK

B D Nicholson 1,, P Aveyard 1, F D R Hobbs 1, M Smith 1, A Fuller 1, R Perera 1, W Hamilton 2, S Stevens 1, C R Bankhead 1
PMCID: PMC6460783  PMID: 31093551

Abstract

Background

Unexpected weight loss is a symptom of serious disease in primary care, for example between 1 in 200 and 1 in 30 patients with unexpected weight loss go on to develop cancer. However, it remains unclear how and when general practitioners (GPs) should investigate unexpected weight loss. Without clarification, GPs may wait too long before referring (choosing to watch and wait and potentially missing a diagnosis) or not long enough (overburdening hospital services and exposing patients to the risks of investigation). The overall aim of this study is to provide the evidence necessary to allow GPs to more effectively manage patients with unexpected weight loss.

Methods

A retrospective cohort analysis of UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) data to: (1) describe how often in UK primary care the symptom of reported weight loss is coded, when weight is measured, and how GPs respond to a patient attending with unexpected weight loss; (2) identify the predictive value of recorded weight loss for cancer and serious disease in primary care, using cumulative incidence plots to compare outcomes between subgroups and Cox regression to explore and adjust for covariates. Preliminary work in CPRD estimates that weight loss as a symptom is recorded for approximately 148,000 eligible patients > 18 years and is distributed evenly across decades of age, providing adequate statistical power and precision in relation to cancer overall and common cancers individually. Further stratification by cancer stage will be attempted but may not be possible as not all practices within CPRD are eligible for cancer registry linkage, and staging information is often incomplete. The feasibility of using multiple imputation to address missing covariate values will be explored.

Discussion

This will be the largest reported retrospective cohort of primary care patients with weight measurements and unexpected weight loss codes used to understand the association between weight measurement, unexpected weight loss, and serious disease including cancer. Our findings will directly inform international guidelines for the management of unexpected weight loss in primary care populations.

Keywords: Weight loss, Early detection of cancer, Serious disease, Primary care, Cohort study

Background

A 2014 systematic review suggests that the positive predictive value (PPV) for cancer is 33% in patients with an unexpected 10% loss of weight from baseline over 6–12 months. The same review reported a wide range of differential diagnoses for patients with unexpected weight loss, including advanced heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, renal disease, pancreatic insufficiency, malabsorption, and endocrine disease, with up to 25% of patients without a diagnosis to explain their weight loss after extended follow-up [1]. However, these data mainly come from hospital inpatient populations or patients referred to the outpatient clinic where the prevalence of cancer and serious disease is much higher than in primary care as GPs have already filtered out many cases of weight loss that are more likely to be attributable to another cause. Given the absence of appropriate clinical guidelines or standardised practice, clinicians have been reported to take a wide range of action in response to patients with unexpected weight loss, from doing nothing through to ordering “extensive blind investigations” because of the fear of underlying cancer [2].

On the basis of primary care research, NICE (2015) has since suggested that unexpected weight loss is a sign of seven cancers, citing evidence from 14 studies reporting positive predictive values (PPVs) of 0.4–3% [3]. The problem for GPs is how to interpret and implement the term weight loss in these cancer guidelines: NICE do not define the degree of weight loss, or the time period of loss, that should prompt referral. Most cited studies referred to in the NICE guidelines define weight loss on the basis of a coded entry in the GP record, often based on a report of weight loss (volunteered by, or elicited from, the patient) rather than measured weight change [46]. Only one study referred to by NICE quantified the degree of weight loss that predicts colorectal cancer in primary care reporting odds ratios of 1.2 (95% CI 0.99–1.5) for 5–9.9% and 2.5 (2.1–3) for ≥ 10% weight loss [7]. However, in this study, weight loss was defined by comparing the last recorded weight with the highest recorded weight in the preceding 2 years [7], as weight is not routinely recorded in primary care and is considered a common missing variable in primary care databases [8].

There is an evidence gap for a comprehensive study to describe the use of weight measurement and coding for unexpected weight loss in primary care and for a study that determines the association between unexpected weight loss and cancer and serious disease that may lead to a comprehensive recommendation for the investigation of unexpected weight loss in primary care.

Objective

The overall objective is to provide the evidence necessary to allow GPs to more effectively manage unexpected weight loss.

Aims and rationale

Aim 1.1

To describe how often and when weight is measured, and the symptom of unexpected weight loss recorded as a code, in adults aged > 18 years, in NHS primary care.

Aim 1.2

To describe what action is taken in response to unexpected weight loss, in adults aged > 18 years, in NHS primary care.

Weight measurements and weight loss codes will be categorised using a rule-based search strategy developed as part of this project to identify the clinical purpose and clinical condition related to each weight entry in the primary care record, and the investigations requested, medications prescribed, and referrals made in response to the symptom of weight loss.

Aim 2.1

To identify the predictive value of unexpected weight loss recorded as a symptom for cancer in primary care in adults aged > 18 years.

Aim 2.2

If the symptom of unexpected weight loss predicts cancer, to explore if it is (i) independent of other symptoms, signs, and test results and (ii) restricted to late-stage disease.

Aim 2.3

To ascertain the predictive value of unexpected weight loss recorded as a symptom for serious disease in primary care.

The evidence regarding the predictive value of unexpected weight loss for cancer in primary care, which underpins the 2015 NICE guideline, does not cover all cancer types or take cancer stage at diagnosis into account. We will identify the predictive value of unexpected weight loss in primary care across all cancer types, explore the incremental predictive value of symptom combinations, and examine the association with cancer stage at diagnosis using a matched open cohort study design. In cases where cancer is excluded, an understanding of which alternative diagnoses are related to unexpected weight loss will inform subsequent management decisions in primary care. We will therefore identify the disease groups for which unexpected weight loss is also predictive to develop clinical guidance for the investigation of unexpected weight loss in primary care.

Study type

Aim 1: Descriptive

The descriptive epidemiology of weight measurement and weight loss coding in NHS primary care.

Aims 2.1 and 2.3: Hypothesis testing

A cohort study of weight loss as a sign of cancer and serious disease in NHS primary care.

Aim 2.2: Exploratory

Exploratory analysis to investigate the influence of covariates on the relationship between weight loss and the occurrence of cancer and serious disease.

Study design

The design of the study is an open cohort study.

Sample size

In preparing this ISAC application, a preliminary search of 20 GP practices from 2000 to 2013 was conducted. Of 127,024 patients > 40 years with acceptable records, 80,562 (63.4%) had at least one weight measurement recorded during that period, 30,728 (24.1%) had two weight measurements within 6 months of each other, and 40,436 (31.8%) within 1 year; 3079 (2.4%) of patients had a Read code for weight loss but only half of these had an accompanying weight measurement.

Two thousand one hundred eighty-four patients with weight loss are required to detect a hazard ratio of 2 (a change in incidence of 1.5 to 3%) at 99% power (0.05% alpha) using a ratio of one case to five controls. It is anticipated that the study will therefore have sufficient power for stratification by cancer type, cancer stage, and using symptom combinations even though linkage to cancer registry may only be possible in approximately 60% of cancer cases [9].

Preliminary work in Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) estimated that that unexpected weight loss is coded as a symptom for about approximately 148,000 patients > 18 years and is distributed evenly across decades of age providing adequate statistical power and precision for a comprehensive cohort study investigating cancer and serious disease in adults (> 18 years). For example, if 3% of patients with weight loss develop cancer the number of Events Per Variable will far exceed the minimum number required for robust statistical modelling.

Data linkage

NCDR Cancer Registry Data

Linkage to the cancer register is required as cancer is a major outcome variable in this cohort study. Cancer registry data will provide more accurate information on cancer site and stage than reliance on the primary care record.

Office of National Statistics (ONS) mortality data

Linkage is required to cross-validate cause of death for patients confirmed to have died of cancer using Cancer Registry Data linkage and to identify or confirm the cause of death in patients with and without serious disease as identified by the GP record.

Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) scores

They are required to provide a GP (and where possible patient) level proxy for socioeconomic status to be used when describing both the baseline characteristics in the descriptive analysis of Aim 1 and the cohort analysis of Aim 2. IMD score will also be used as a covariate in the multivariate cox regression analysis as part of Aim 2 (see below).

Study population

The study population is summarised in Fig. 1.

Fig. 1.

Fig. 1

Flowchart of study populations

Aim 1: Descriptive study

  • NHS patients > 18 years

  • Registered with a GP practice 1 January 2000–31 December 2011

  • Eligible for data linkage with Cancer registry and ONS data

Aim 2: Cohort analysis

Inclusions:

  • NHS patients > 18 years

  • Registered with a GP practice 1 January 2000–31 December 2011

  • Eligible for data linkage with Cancer registry and ONS data.

  • Patients with one of the unexpected weight loss codes (defined in Table 1)

Table 1.

Weight measurement and unexpected weight loss codes

Unexpected weight loss codes
Medcode Readcode Readterm
126 22A6.00 O/E—underweight
654 1623 Weight decreasing
1581 162..00 Weight symptom
3647 R032.00 [D]Abnormal loss of weight
4663 1625 Abnormal weight loss
5812 1625.11 Abnormal weight loss—symptom
12,398 1D1A.00 Complaining of weight loss
12,530 R034800 [D]Underweight
14,764 162Z.00 Weight symptom NOS
22,005 2224 O/E—cachexic
24,068 R2y4.00 [D]Cachexia
32,914 22K3.00 Body Mass Index low K/M2
37,937 22A8.00 Weight loss from baseline weight
42,309 22A7.00 Baseline weight
53,801 R2y4z00 [D]Cachexia NOS
102,563 1627 Unintentional weight loss
Weight measurement codes
2 22A..00 O/E—weight
8105 22K..00 Body mass index
9015 22K4.00 Body mass index 25–29—overweight
13,278 22K5.00 Body mass index 30+—obesity
21,520 22AZ.00 O/E—weight NOS
22,556 22K7.00 Body mass index 40+—severely obese
24,496 22K6.00 Body mass index less than 20
28,937 22K2.00 Body mass index high K/M2
28,946 22K1.00 Body mass index normal K/M2
44,291 22K8.00 Body mass index 20–24—normal
101,047 22K9.00 Body mass index centile
105,791 22K9000 Baseline body mass index centile
105,800 22KB.00 Baseline body mass index
107,231 22KA.00 Target body mass index

Exclusions:

  • Patients with a diagnosis of cancer prior to the index symptom of weight loss.

Selection of comparison group(s) or controls

Aim 1: Descriptive study

-No comparison group is required.

Aim 2: Cohort analysis

  • A matched cohort of patients without weight loss—patients without a coded entry for weight loss will be matched for age and sex and selected from the population of patients registered with the same practice having consulted within ± 3 months of the index weight loss code.

  • Matching for age and sex will ensure there are sufficient patients without weight loss in each age and sex strata.

  • A 1:5 sampling ratio achieves the best balance between data cost and statistical power (see sample size).

Exposures, outcomes and covariates

Aim 1: Descriptive study

Outcome 1: Objective weight measurement—quantitative weight measurements.

Outcome 2: Weight loss code—Read Codes defined in Table 1.

Patients with objective weight measurements or the symptom of unexpected weight loss recorded using the following Medcodes and Read codes listed in Table 1.

Aim 2: Cohort analysis

Exposure—weight loss

Patients with the symptom of weight loss recorded using the unexpected weight loss Medcodes and Read Codes listed in Table 1. Weight loss codes will be independently categorised for clinical relavence by four co-investigators based on the results of the descriptive analysis, then consensus reached through discussion.   

Outcome—cancer

A library of over 1600 Read Codes and ICD-10 codes (grouped by site—see Table 2) developed by Hamilton and colleagues will be reviewed, updated using Read Code searches, and validated through consensus amongst co-investigators. All new cancer diagnoses in the 24 months following the weight loss code will be identified in CPRD and linked cancer registry data. To inform this analysis, data will also be extracted on cancer stage, grade, tumour size, and histology at diagnosis.

Table 2.

Cancer codes

Cancer Read code Description Medcode ICD 10
Bladder B490.00 Malignant neoplasm of trigone of urinary bladder 38,862 C670
B491.00 Malignant neoplasm of dome of urinary bladder 44,996 C671
B492.00 Malignant neoplasm of lateral wall of urinary bladder 35,963 C672
B493.00 Malignant neoplasm of anterior wall of urinary bladder 19,162 C673
B494.00 Malignant neoplasm of posterior wall of urinary bladder 42,012 C674
B495.00 Malignant neoplasm of bladder neck 41,571 C675
B496.00 Malignant neoplasm of ureteric orifice 28,241 C676
B497.00 Malignant neoplasm of urachus 42,023 C677
B49y000 Malignant neoplasm, overlapping lesion of bladder 47,801 C678
B49y.00 Malignant neoplasm of other site of urinary bladder 36,949 C679
B49z.00 Malignant neoplasm of urinary bladder NOS 31,102 C679
Breast B335200 Malignant neoplasm of skin of breast 30,543 C445
B34..11 CA female breast 348 C50
B34..00 Malignant neoplasm of female breast 3968 C50
B340000 Malignant neoplasm of nipple of female breast 23,380 C500
B340.00 Malignant neoplasm of nipple and areola of female breast 26,853 C500
B340z00 Malignant neoplasm of nipple or areola of female breast nos 59,831 C500
B340100 Malignant neoplasm of areola of female breast 64,686 C500
B341.00 Malignant neoplasm of central part of female breast 31,546 C501
B342.00 Malignant neoplasm of upper-inner quadrant of female breast 29,826 C502
B343.00 Malignant neoplasm of lower-inner quadrant of female breast 45,222 C503
B344.00 Malignant neoplasm of upper-outer quadrant of female breast 23,399 C504
B345.00 Malignant neoplasm of lower-outer quadrant of female breast 42,070 C505
B346.00 Malignant neoplasm of axillary tail of female breast 20,685 C506
B34y000 Malignant neoplasm of ectopic site of female breast 95,057 C508
B34yz00 Malignant neoplasm of other site of female breast nos 38,475 C509
B34y.00 Malignant neoplasm of other site of female breast 56,715 C509
B34z.00 Malignant neoplasm of female breast nos 9470 C509
Cervix B410z00 Malignant neoplasm of endocervix nos 50,285 C530
B410.00 Malignant neoplasm of endocervix 48,820 C530
B410000 Malignant neoplasm of endocervical canal 57,235 C530
B410100 Malignant neoplasm of endocervical gland 53,103 C530
B411.00 Malignant neoplasm of exocervix 50,297 C531
B412.00 Malignant neoplasm, overlapping lesion of cervix uteri 58,094 C538
B41y100 Malignant neoplasm of squamocolumnar junction of cervix 57,719 C538
B41y000 Malignant neoplasm of cervical stump 95,505 C538
B41yz00 Malignant neoplasm of other site of cervix nos 43,435 C539
B41z.00 Malignant neoplasm of cervix uteri nos 28,311 C539
B41y.00 Malignant neoplasm of other site of cervix 32,955 C539
Colorectal B134.11 Carcinoma of caecum 22,163 C180
B134.00 Malignant neoplasm of caecum 3811 C180
B136.00 Malignant neoplasm of ascending colon 10,946 C182
B130.00 Malignant neoplasm of hepatic flexure of colon 9088 C183
B131.00 Malignant neoplasm of transverse colon 6935 C184
B137.00 Malignant neoplasm of splenic flexure of colon 18,619 C185
B132.00 Malignant neoplasm of descending colon 10,864 C186
B133.00 Malignant neoplasm of sigmoid colon 2815 C187
B138.00 Malignant neoplasm, overlapping lesion of colon 93,478 C188
B13y.00 Malignant neoplasm of other specified sites of colon 48,231 C189
B13z.11 Colonic cancer 9118 C189
B13z.00 Malignant neoplasm of colon nos 28,163 C189
B140.00 Malignant neoplasm of rectosigmoid junction 27,855 C19
B141.12 Rectal carcinoma 5901 C20
B141.11 Carcinoma of rectum 7219 C20
B141.00 Malignant neoplasm of rectum 1800 C20
B14y.00 Malig neop other site rectum, rectosigmoid junction and anus 55,659 C218
B14z.00 Malignant neoplasm rectum,rectosigmoid junction and anus nos 50,974 C218
B1z0.11 Cancer of bowel 11,628 C260
B18y200 Malignant neoplasm of mesorectum 30,165 C481
Larynx B214.00 Malignant neoplasm, overlapping lesion of larynx 50,579 C328
B21z.00 Malignant neoplasm of larynx NOS 9237 C329
B21y.00 Malignant neoplasm of larynx, other specified site 26,813 C329
B210.00 Malignant neoplasm of glottis 318 C320
B215.00 Malignant neoplasm of epiglottis NOS 55,374 C321
B211.00 Malignant neoplasm of supraglottis 26,165 C321
B212.00 Malignant neoplasm of subglottis 22,441 C322
B213z00 Malignant neoplasm of laryngeal cartilage NOS 97,332 C323
B213000 Malignant neoplasm of arytenoid cartilage 63,460 C323
B213.00 Malignant neoplasm of laryngeal cartilage 43,111 C323
B213100 Malignant neoplasm of cricoid cartilage 37,805 C323
Thyroid B213300 Malignant neoplasm of thyroid cartilage 47,862 C323
B53..00 Malignant neoplasm of thyroid gland 5637 C73
Sarcoma B150200 Primary angiosarcoma of liver 68,410 C223
B1z1100 Fibrosarcoma of spleen 72,224 C261
B30z000 Osteosarcoma 19,437 C419
B339.00 Dermatofibrosarcoma protuberans 24,375 C449
B33z000 Kaposi’s sarcoma of skin 27,931 C460
B05z000 Kaposi’s sarcoma of palate 37,549 C462
B6z0.00 Kaposi’s sarcoma of lymph nodes 50,290 C463
B592X00 Kaposi’s sarcoma of multiple organs 65,466 C468
Byu5300 [X]kaposi’s sarcoma, unspecified 93,665 C469
B59zX00 Kaposi’s sarcoma, unspecified 49,525 C469
B600000 Reticulosarcoma of unspecified site 60,242 C833
B600100 Reticulosarcoma of lymph nodes of head, face, and neck 71,031 C833
B600700 Reticulosarcoma of spleen 95,058 C833
B600300 Reticulosarcoma of intra-abdominal lymph nodes 70,374 C833
B600.00 Reticulosarcoma 1481 C839
B601000 Lymphosarcoma of unspecified site 71,625 C850
B601200 Lymphosarcoma of intrathoracic lymph nodes 62,380 C850
B601.00 Lymphosarcoma 27,416 C850
B601100 Lymphosarcoma of lymph nodes of head, face and neck 71,238 C850
B601z00 Lymphosarcoma nos 63,723 C850
B601300 Lymphosarcoma of intra-abdominal lymph nodes 64,670 C850
B653.00 Myeloid sarcoma 70,724 C923
B653100 Granulocytic sarcoma 39,629 C923
B67y000 Lymphosarcoma cell leukaemia 72,197 C947
B304200 Malignant neoplasm of humerus 61,741 C400
B304000 Malignant neoplasm of scapula 49,054 C400
B304300 Malignant neoplasm of radius 92,371 C400
B304.00 Malignant neoplasm of scapula and long bones of upper arm 71,810 C400
B304z00 Malignant neoplasm of scapula and long bones of upper arm NOS 65,880 C400
B304400 Malignant neoplasm of ulna 64,848 C400
B305.00 Malignant neoplasm of hand bones 73,530 C401
B305.12 Malignant neoplasm of metacarpal bones 72,464 C401
B305C00 Malignant neoplasm of fifth metacarpal bone 94,427 C401
B305z00 Malignant neoplasm of hand bones NOS 73,556 C401
B305100 Malignant neoplasm of carpal bone—lunate 69,104 C401
B305000 Malignant neoplasm of carpal bone—scaphoid 57,988 C401
B305D00 Malignant neoplasm of phalanges of hand 86,812 C401
B307z00 Malignant neoplasm of long bones of leg NOS 62,630 C402
B307.00 Malignant neoplasm of long bones of leg 68,055 C402
B307200 Malignant neoplasm of tibia 40,814 C402
B307100 Malignant neoplasm of fibula 50,402 C402
B307000 Malignant neoplasm of femur 56,513 C402
B308300 Malignant neoplasm of medial cuneiform 34,878 C403
B308800 Malignant neoplasm of first metatarsal bone 69,927 C403
B308B00 Malignant neoplasm of fourth metatarsal bone 92,382 C403
B308100 Malignant neoplasm of talus 95,182 C403
B308D00 Malignant neoplasm of phalanges of foot 58,949 C403
B308200 Malignant neoplasm of calcaneum 72,212 C403
B30X.00 Malignant neoplasm/bones + articular cartilage/limb, unspecified 43,614 C409
Byu3100 [X]Malignant neoplasm/bones + articular cartilage/limb, unspecified 73,296 C409
B300600 Malignant neoplasm of parietal bone 54,747 C410
B300400 Malignant neoplasm of occipital bone 55,953 C410
B300z00 Malignant neoplasm of bones of skull and face NOS 69,146 C410
B300300 Malignant neoplasm of nasal bone 95,458 C410
B300900 Malignant neoplasm of zygomatic bone 50,299 C410
B300C00 Malignant neoplasm of vomer 44,452 C410
B300500 Malignant neoplasm of orbital bone 50,298 C410
B300700 Malignant neoplasm of sphenoid bone 55,595 C410
B300200 Malignant neoplasm of malar bone 59,520 C410
B300B00 Malignant neoplasm of turbinate 96,445 C410
B300000 Malignant neoplasm of ethmoid bone 53,594 C410
B300100 Malignant neoplasm of frontal bone 53,599 C410
B300800 Malignant neoplasm of temporal bone 62,104 C410
B300.00 Malignant neoplasm of bones of skull and face 59,036 C410
B300A00 Malignant neoplasm of maxilla 17,475 C410
B301.00 Malignant neoplasm of mandible 33,833 C411
B302100 Malignant neoplasm of thoracic vertebra 32,372 C412
B302.00 Malignant neoplasm of vertebral column 16,704 C412
B302000 Malignant neoplasm of cervical vertebra 46,939 C412
B302200 Malignant neoplasm of lumbar vertebra 54,691 C412
B302z00 Malignant neoplasm of vertebral column NOS 49,701 C412
B303000 Malignant neoplasm of rib 37,842 C413
B303.00 Malignant neoplasm of ribs, sternum and clavicle 27,528 C413
B303100 Malignant neoplasm of sternum 49,491 C413
B303z00 Malignant neoplasm of rib, sternum and clavicle NOS 51,237 C413
B303500 Malignant neoplasm of xiphoid process 54,493 C413
B303300 Malignant neoplasm of costal cartilage 60,403 C413
B303200 Malignant neoplasm of clavicle 66,639 C413
B306.00 Malignant neoplasm of pelvic bones, sacrum and coccyx 54,631 C414
B306100 Malignant neoplasm of ischium 59,223 C414
B306400 Malignant neoplasm of coccygeal vertebra 66,908 C414
B306z00 Malignant neoplasm of pelvis, sacrum or coccyx NOS 38,938 C414
B306300 Malignant neoplasm of sacral vertebra 40,966 C414
B306200 Malignant neoplasm of pubis 51,921 C414
B306000 Malignant neoplasm of ilium 44,609 C414
Byu3200 [X]Malignant neoplasm/overlap lesion/bone + articular cartilage 63,300 C418
B30W.00 Malignant neoplasm/overlap lesion/bone + articular cartilage 67,451 C418
B303400 Malignant neoplasm of costo-vertebral joint 67,763 C418
B30z.00 Malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage NOS 16,075 C419
Byu3300 [X]Malignant neoplasm/bone + articular cartilage, unspecified 43,151 C419
B310z00 Malig neop connective and soft tissue head, face, neck NOS 73,718 C490
B310100 Malignant neoplasm of soft tissue of face 40,014 C490
B310000 Malignant neoplasm of soft tissue of head 59,382 C490
B310300 Malignant neoplasm of cartilage of ear 60,035 C490
B310.00 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue head, face and neck 43,475 C490
B310200 Malignant neoplasm of soft tissue of neck 48,517 C490
B310400 Malignant neoplasm of tarsus of eyelid 49,463 C490
B311500 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue of thumb 63,988 C491
B311200 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue of fore-arm 57,482 C491
B311100 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue, upper arm 64,345 C491
B311000 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue of shoulder 50,222 C491
B311400 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue of finger 91,586 C491
B311300 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue of hand 19,321 C491
B311.00 Malignant neoplasm connective and soft tissue upper limb/shoulder 53,989 C491
B312300 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue of lower leg 30,542 C492
B312400 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue of foot 54,222 C492
B312.00 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue of hip and leg 66,088 C492
B312z00 Malignant neoplasm connective and soft tissue hip and leg NOS 90,546 C492
B312200 Malignant neoplasm connective and soft tissue of popliteal space 54,965 C492
B312100 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue thigh and upper leg 44,805 C492
B313100 Malignant neoplasm of diaphragm 54,186 C493
B313.00 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue of thorax 22,290 C493
B313000 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue of axilla 29,160 C493
B313200 Malignant neoplasm of great vessels 72,522 C493
B314.00 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue of abdomen 45,071 C494
B314z00 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue of abdomen NOS 60,247 C494
B314000 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue of abdominal wall 66,488 C494
B315z00 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue of pelvis NOS 58,836 C495
B315000 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue of buttock 70,463 C495
B315200 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue of perineum 59,152 C495
B315.00 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue of pelvis 51,965 C495
B315100 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue of inguinal region 67,324 C495
Byu5800 [X]Mal neoplasm/connective + soft tissue of trunk, unspecified 91,896 C496
B314100 Malig neoplasm of connective and soft tissues of lumb spine 94,272 C496
B316.00 Malig neop of connective and soft tissue trunk unspecified 57,471 C496
B31z.00 Malignant neoplasm of connective and soft tissue, site NOS 15,182 C499
Byu5900 [X]Malignant neoplasm/connective + soft tissue, unspecified 91,457 C499
B31y.00 Malignant neoplasm connective and soft tissue other specified site 65,233 C499
Kidney B4A0.00 Malignant neoplasm of kidney parenchyma 1599 C64
B4A..11 Renal malignant neoplasm 18,712 C64
B4A..00 Malignant neoplasm of kidney and other unspecified urinary organs 13,559 C64
B4A0000 Hypernephroma 7978 C64
B4A1000 Malignant neoplasm of renal calyces 27,540 C65
B4A1z00 Malignant neoplasm of renal pelvis NOS 54,184 C65
B4A1.00 Malignant neoplasm of renal pelvis 12,389 C65
B4Az.00 Malignant neoplasm of kidney or urinary organs NOS 29,462 C689
Lung B221100 Malignant neoplasm of hilus of lung 33,444 C340
B221.00 Malignant neoplasm of main bronchus 12,870 C340
B221z00 Malignant neoplasm of main bronchus NOS 21,698 C340
B221000 Malignant neoplasm of carina of bronchus 17,391 C340
B222.11 Pancoast’s syndrome 20,170 C341
B222.00 Malignant neoplasm of upper lobe, bronchus or lung 10,358 C341
B222000 Malignant neoplasm of upper lobe bronchus 31,700 C341
B222100 Malignant neoplasm of upper lobe of lung 25,886 C341
B222z00 Malignant neoplasm of upper lobe, bronchus or lung NOS 44,169 C341
B223100 Malignant neoplasm of middle lobe of lung 39,923 C342
B223z00 Malignant neoplasm of middle lobe, bronchus or lung NOS 54,134 C342
B223.00 Malignant neoplasm of middle lobe, bronchus or lung 31,268 C342
B223000 Malignant neoplasm of middle lobe bronchus 41,523 C342
B224z00 Malignant neoplasm of lower lobe, bronchus or lung NOS 42,566 C343
B224100 Malignant neoplasm of lower lobe of lung 12,582 C343
B224000 Malignant neoplasm of lower lobe bronchus 18,678 C343
B224.00 Malignant neoplasm of lower lobe, bronchus or lung 31,188 C343
B225.00 Malignant neoplasm of overlapping lesion of bronchus and lung 36,371 C348
B22z.00 Malignant neoplasm of bronchus or lung NOS 3903 C349
Byu2000 [X]malignant neoplasm of bronchus or lung, unspecified 40,595 C349
B22z.11 Lung cancer 2587 C349
B22y.00 Malignant neoplasm of other sites of bronchus or lung 38,961 C349
B26..00 Malignant neoplasm, overlap lesion of resp and intrathor orgs 66,646 C398
B2zy.00 Malignant neoplasm of other site of respiratory tract 29,283 C399
Hodgkins lymphoma B613.00 Hodgkin’s disease, lymphocytic-histiocytic predominance 38,939 C810
B613600 Hodgkin’s, lymphocytic-histiocytic pred intrapelvic nodes 95,338 C810
B613z00 Hodgkin’s, lymphocytic-histiocytic predominance nos 29,876 C810
B613300 Hodgkin’s, lymphocytic-histiocytic pred intra-abdominal node 73,532 C810
B613000 Hodgkin’s, lymphocytic-histiocytic predominance unspec site 71,142 C810
B613200 Hodgkin’s, lymphocytic-histiocytic pred intrathoracic nodes 92,245 C810
B613100 Hodgkin’s, lymphocytic-histiocytic pred of head, face, neck 68,330 C810
B613500 Hodgkin’s, lymphocytic-histiocytic pred inguinal and leg 93,951 C810
B614400 Hodgkin’s nodular sclerosis of lymph nodes of axilla and arm 65,483 C811
B614300 Hodgkin’s nodular sclerosis of intra-abdominal lymph nodes 61,149 C811
B614.00 Hodgkin’s disease, nodular sclerosis 29,178 C811
B614100 Hodgkin’s nodular sclerosis of head, face and neck 55,303 C811
B614z00 Hodgkin’s disease, nodular sclerosis NOS 63,054 C811
B614200 Hodgkin’s nodular sclerosis of intrathoracic lymph nodes 67,506 C811
B614000 Hodgkin’s disease, nodular sclerosis of unspecified site 57,225 C811
B614800 Hodgkin’s nodular sclerosis of lymph nodes of multiple sites 19,140 C811
B615200 Hodgkin’s mixed cellularity of intrathoracic lymph nodes 58,684 C812
B615z00 Hodgkin’s disease, mixed cellularity NOS 94,005 C812
B615.00 Hodgkin’s disease, mixed cellularity 49,605 C812
B615100 Hodgkin’s mixed cellularity of lymph nodes head, face, neck 94,407 C812
B615000 Hodgkin’s disease, mixed cellularity of unspecified site 97,863 C812
B616.00 Hodgkin’s disease, lymphocytic depletion 67,703 C813
B616400 Hodgkin’s lymphocytic depletion lymph nodes axilla and arm 63,625 C813
B616000 Hodgkin’s lymphocytic depletion of unspecified site 95,049 C813
ByuD000 [X]other Hodgkin’s disease 43,415 C817
B610.00 Hodgkin’s paragranuloma 65,489 C817
B611.00 Hodgkin’s granuloma 44,196 C817
B61z100 Hodgkin’s disease NOS of lymph nodes of head, face and neck 59,778 C819
B61..00 Hodgkin’s disease 2462 C819
B61zz00 Hodgkin’s disease NOS 42,461 C819
B61z800 Hodgkin’s disease NOS of lymph nodes of multiple sites 97,746 C819
B61z200 Hodgkin’s disease NOS of intrathoracic lymph nodes 59,755 C819
B61z.00 Hodgkin’s disease NOS 53,397 C819
B61z000 Hodgkin’s disease NOS, unspecified site 61,662 C819
B61z400 Hodgkin’s disease NOS of lymph nodes of axilla and arm 91,900 C819
B61z700 Hodgkin’s disease NOS of spleen 94,279 C819
B612.00 Hodgkin’s sarcoma 64,036 C817
B612400 Hodgkin’s sarcoma of lymph nodes of axilla and upper limb 68,039 C817
Non-Hodgkins lymphoma B627000 Follicular non-Hodgkin’s small cleaved cell lymphoma 28,639 C820
B627100 Follicular non-Hodgkin’s mixed sml cleavd & lge cell lymphoma 70,842 C821
B627200 Follicular non-Hodgkin’s large cell lymphoma 49,262 C822
B627B00 Other types of follicular non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma 31,576 C827
ByuD100 [X]other types of follicular non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma 67,518 C827
B620500 Nodular lymphoma of lymph nodes of inguinal region and leg 94,995 C829
B627C11 Follicular lymphoma NOS 17,182 C829
B620000 Nodular lymphoma of unspecified site 66,327 C829
B620100 Nodular lymphoma of lymph nodes of head, face and neck 45,264 C829
B620z00 Nodular lymphoma NOS 65,701 C829
B620.00 Nodular lymphoma (brill - symmers disease) 5179 C829
B620300 Nodular lymphoma of intra-abdominal lymph nodes 92,068 C829
B627C00 Follicular non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma 21,549 C829
B620800 Nodular lymphoma of lymph nodes of multiple sites 58,082 C829
B627300 Diffuse non-Hodgkin’s small cell (diffuse) lymphoma 50,668 C830
B627500 Diffuse non-Hodgkin mixed small & large cell (diffuse) lymphoma 50,695 C832
B627600 Diffuse non-Hodgkin’s immunoblastic (diffuse) lymphoma 53,551 C834
B627700 Diffuse non-Hodgkin’s lymphoblastic (diffuse) lymphoma 17,460 C835
B627800 Diffuse non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma undifferentiated (diffuse) 65,180 C836
B602300 Burkitt’s lymphoma of intra-abdominal lymph nodes 97,577 C837
B602z00 Burkitt’s lymphoma NOS 71,304 C837
B602.00 Burkitt’s lymphoma 21,402 C837
B602500 Burkitt’s lymphoma of lymph nodes of inguinal region and leg 92,380 C837
B602100 Burkitt’s lymphoma of lymph nodes of head, face and neck 59,115 C837
B627D00 Diffuse non-Hodgkin’s centroblastic lymphoma 70,509 C838
ByuDC00 [X]Diffuse non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, unspecified 64,515 C839
B627X00 Diffuse non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, unspecified 39,798 C839
B622.00 Sezary’s disease 35,014 C841
B62x000 T-zone lymphoma 90,201 C842
B62x100 Lymphoepithelioid lymphoma 57,737 C843
B62x200 Peripheral t-cell lymphoma 12,464 C844
B62xX00 Oth and unspecif peripheral and cutaneous t cell lymphomas 44,318 C845
B627W00 Unspecified b-cell non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma 31,794 C851
ByuDE00 [X]unspecified b-cell non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma 63,375 C851
ByuD300 [X]Other specified types of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma 64,336 C857
B62y100 Malignant lymphoma NOS of lymph nodes of head, face and neck 50,696 C859
B62y500 Malignant lymphoma NOS of lymph node inguinal region and leg 63,105 C859
B62y400 Malignant lymphoma NOS of lymph nodes of axilla and arm 34,089 C859
B62y000 Malignant lymphoma NOS of unspecified site 57,427 C859
B62y700 Malignant lymphoma NOS of spleen 60,092 C859
ByuDF11 [X]Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma NOS 7940 C859
B62y600 Malignant lymphoma NOS of intrapelvic lymph nodes 71,262 C859
B62y200 Malignant lymphoma NOS of intrathoracic lymph nodes 72,725 C859
B62yz00 Malignant lymphoma NOS 15,027 C859
ByuDF00 [X]Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, unspecified type 8649 C859
B62y.00 Malignant lymphoma NOS 12,335 C859
B62y300 Malignant lymphoma NOS of intra-abdominal lymph nodes 42,579 C859
B62x600 True histiocytic lymphoma 95,630 C963
B6z..00 Malignant neoplasm lymphatic or haematopoietic tissue NOS 49,301 C969
B62y800 Malignant lymphoma NOS of lymph nodes of multiple sites 15,504 C969
B621000 Mycosis fungoides of unspecified site 95,949 C840
B621500 Mycosis fungoides of lymph nodes of inguinal region and leg 72,714 C840
B621.00 Mycosis fungoides 12,006 C840
B621800 Mycosis fungoides of lymph nodes of multiple sites 95,012 C840
B621400 Mycosis fungoides of lymph nodes of axilla and upper limb 96,379 C840
B621300 Mycosis fungoides of intra-abdominal lymph nodes 91,674 C840
B621z00 Mycosis fungoides NOS 38,005 C840
B62x400 Malignant reticulosis 62,437 C857
Melanoma B320.00 Malignant melanoma of lip 70,637 C430
B321.00 Malignant melanoma of eyelid including canthus 54,632 C431
B322000 Malignant melanoma of auricle (ear) 59,061 C432
B322.00 Malignant melanoma of ear and external auricular canal 57,260 C432
B322z00 Malignant melanoma of ear and external auricular canal NOS 73,744 C432
B323100 Malignant melanoma of chin 71,136 C433
B323200 Malignant melanoma of eyebrow 47,094 C433
B323500 Malignant melanoma of temple 58,958 C433
B323z00 Malignant melanoma of face NOS 67,806 C433
Byu4000 [X]malignant melanoma of other + unspecified parts of face 56,925 C433
B323.00 Malignant melanoma of other and unspecified parts of face 47,252 C433
B323300 Malignant melanoma of forehead 68,133 C433
B323400 Malignant melanoma of external surface of nose 45,139 C433
B323000 Malignant melanoma of external surface of cheek 41,278 C433
B324000 Malignant melanoma of scalp 55,881 C434
B324.00 Malignant melanoma of scalp and neck 65,625 C434
B324100 Malignant melanoma of neck 45,306 C434
B325700 Malignant melanoma of back 43,463 C435
B325800 Malignant melanoma of chest wall 51,209 C435
B325600 Malignant melanoma of umbilicus 43,715 C435
B325100 Malignant melanoma of breast 32,768 C435
B325300 Malignant melanoma of groin 34,259 C435
B325200 Malignant melanoma of buttock 53,629 C435
B325500 Malignant melanoma of perineum 95,629 C435
B325.00 Malignant melanoma of trunk (excluding scrotum) 38,689 C435
B325z00 Malignant melanoma of trunk, excluding scrotum, NOS 45,760 C435
B325000 Malignant melanoma of axilla 49,814 C435
B326200 Malignant melanoma of fore-arm 45,755 C436
B326400 Malignant melanoma of finger 25,602 C436
B326300 Malignant melanoma of hand 62,475 C436
B326000 Malignant melanoma of shoulder 50,505 C436
B326500 Malignant melanoma of thumb 63,997 C436
B326z00 Malignant melanoma of upper limb or shoulder NOS 55,292 C436
B326100 Malignant melanoma of upper arm 54,685 C436
B326.00 Malignant melanoma of upper limb and shoulder 65,164 C436
B327500 Malignant melanoma of ankle 42,714 C437
B327700 Malignant melanoma of foot 41,490 C437
B327000 Malignant melanoma of hip 73,536 C437
B327100 Malignant melanoma of thigh 51,873 C437
B327800 Malignant melanoma of toe 36,899 C437
B327200 Malignant melanoma of knee 54,305 C437
B327.00 Malignant melanoma of lower limb and hip 46,255 C437
B327600 Malignant melanoma of heel 61,246 C437
B327300 Malignant melanoma of popliteal fossa area 39,878 C437
B327z00 Malignant melanoma of lower limb or hip NOS 64,327 C437
B327900 Malignant melanoma of great toe 53,369 C437
B327400 Malignant melanoma of lower leg 37,872 C437
B32y000 Overlapping malignant melanoma of skin 96,585 C438
B32z.00 Malignant melanoma of skin NOS 28,556 C439
Byu4100 [X]malignant melanoma of skin, unspecified 19,444 C439
B32..00 Malignant melanoma of skin 865 C439
B32y.00 Malignant melanoma of other specified skin site 42,153 C439
Myeloma B63z.00 Immunoproliferative neoplasm or myeloma NOS 43,450 C889
B630.12 Myelomatosis 15,211 C900
B630.00 Multiple myeloma 4944 C900
B630300 Lambda light chain myeloma 46,042 C900
B631.00 Plasma cell leukaemia 39,187 C901
B630100 Solitary myeloma 19,028 C902
B630200 Plasmacytoma NOS 21,329 C902
B630000 Malignant plasma cell neoplasm, extramedullary plasmacytoma 22,158 C902
Oesophagus B100.00 Malignant neoplasm of cervical oesophagus 61,695 C150
B101.00 Malignant neoplasm of thoracic oesophagus 41,362 C151
B102.00 Malignant neoplasm of abdominal oesophagus 63,470 C152
B103.00 Malignant neoplasm of upper third of oesophagus 50,789 C153
B104.00 Malignant neoplasm of middle third of oesophagus 54,171 C154
B105.00 Malignant neoplasm of lower third of oesophagus 42,416 C155
B106.00 Malignant neoplasm, overlapping lesion of oesophagus 67,497 C158
B10y.00 Malignant neoplasm of other specified part of oesophagus 53,591 C159
B10z.00 Malignant neoplasm of oesophagus NOS 30,700 C159
B10z.11 Oesophageal cancer 4865 C159
B110111 Malignant neoplasm of gastro-oesophageal junction 94,278 C160
Ovary B440.00 Malignant neoplasm of ovary 7805 C56
B440.11 Cancer of ovary 1986 C56
B44..00 Malignant neoplasm of ovary and other uterine adnexa 19,141 C578
Pancreas B162.00 Malignant neoplasm of ampulla of vater 10,949 C241
B170.00 Malignant neoplasm of head of pancreas 8771 C250
B171.00 Malignant neoplasm of body of pancreas 40,810 C251
B172.00 Malignant neoplasm of tail of pancreas 39,870 C252
B173.00 Malignant neoplasm of pancreatic duct 35,535 C253
B174.00 Malignant neoplasm of islets of langerhans 35,795 C254
B17y.00 Malignant neoplasm of other specified sites of pancreas 48,537 C257
B17yz00 Malignant neoplasm of specified site of pancreas NOS 95,783 C257
B175.00 Malignant neoplasm, overlapping lesion of pancreas 97,875 C258
B17y000 Malignant neoplasm of ectopic pancreatic tissue 96,635 C259
B17z.00 Malignant neoplasm of pancreas NOS 34,388 C259
Prostate B46..00 Malignant neoplasm of prostate 780 C61
Stomach B110100 Malignant neoplasm of cardio-oesophageal junction of stomach 22,894 C160
B110z00 Malignant neoplasm of cardia of stomach NOS 37,859 C160
B110.00 Malignant neoplasm of cardia of stomach 32,022 C160
B113.00 Malignant neoplasm of fundus of stomach 32,362 C161
B114.00 Malignant neoplasm of body of stomach 43,572 C162
B112.00 Malignant neoplasm of pyloric antrum of stomach 19,318 C163
B111z00 Malignant neoplasm of pylorus of stomach NOS 59,092 C164
B111100 Malignant neoplasm of pyloric canal of stomach 41,215 C164
B111000 Malignant neoplasm of prepylorus of stomach 48,237 C164
B111.00 Malignant neoplasm of pylorus of stomach 21,620 C164
B115.00 Malignant neoplasm of lesser curve of stomach unspecified 42,193 C165
B116.00 Malignant neoplasm of greater curve of stomach unspecified 55,434 C166
B11y000 Malignant neoplasm of anterior wall of stomach nec 65,312 C168
B11y100 Malignant neoplasm of posterior wall of stomach nec 96,802 C168
B117.00 Malignant neoplasm, overlapping lesion of stomach 51,690 C168
B11yz00 Malignant neoplasm of other specified site of stomach NOS 65,372 C169
B11y.00 Malignant neoplasm of other specified site of stomach 55,019 C169
B11z.00 Malignant neoplasm of stomach NOS 14,800 C169
Testis B470200 Seminoma of undescended testis 7740 C620
B470.00 Malignant neoplasm of undescended testis 64,602 C620
B470300 Teratoma of undescended testis 36,325 C620
B470z00 Malignant neoplasm of undescended testis NOS 96,429 C620
B471z00 Malignant neoplasm of descended testis NOS 91,509 C621
B471000 Seminoma of descended testis 21,786 C621
B471100 Teratoma of descended testis 9476 C621
B471.00 Malignant neoplasm of descended testis 19,475 C621
B47z.00 Malignant neoplasm of testis NOS 38,510 C629
B47z.11 Seminoma of testis 2961 C629
B47z.12 Teratoma of testis 15,989 C629
B48y100 Malignant neoplasm of tunica vaginalis 47,668 C637
Uterus B431000 Malignant neoplasm of lower uterine segment 59,097 C540
B431z00 Malignant neoplasm of isthmus of uterine body NOS 70,729 C540
B431.00 Malignant neoplasm of isthmus of uterine body 43,940 C540
B430211 Malignant neoplasm of endometrium 49,400 C541
B430200 Malignant neoplasm of endometrium of corpus uteri 2890 C541
B430300 Malignant neoplasm of myometrium of corpus uteri 45,793 C542
B430100 Malignant neoplasm of fundus of corpus uteri 68,155 C543
B432.00 Malignant neoplasm of overlapping lesion of corpus uteri 16,967 C548
B43z.00 Malignant neoplasm of body of uterus NOS 33,617 C549
B43y.00 Malignant neoplasm of other site of uterine body 31,608 C549
B430000 Malignant neoplasm of cornu of corpus uteri 72,723 C549
B430z00 Malignant neoplasm of corpus uteri NOS 45,490 C549
B43..00 Malignant neoplasm of body of uterus 7046 C549
B40..00 Malignant neoplasm of uterus, part unspecified 2744 C55
Vulval B451.00 Malignant neoplasm of labia majora 43,761 C510
B453.00 Malignant neoplasm of clitoris 53,910 C512
B45y000 Malignant neoplasm of overlapping lesion of vulva 27,617 C518
B454.00 Malignant neoplasm of vulva unspecified 4554 C519
B454.11 Primary vulval cancer 11,991 C519
B451z00 Malignant neoplasm of labia majora NOS 59,362 C510
B451000 Malignant neoplasm of greater vestibular (Bartholin’s) gland 47,899 C510
B452.00 Malignant neoplasm of labia minora 58,061 C511
Vaginal B450.00 Malignant neoplasm of vagina 37,328 C52
B450100 Malignant neoplasm of vaginal vault 10,698 C52
B450z00 Malignant neoplasm of vagina NOS 60,772 C52

Outcome—serious disease

A library of candidate Read Codes for the most common serious diseases related to unexpected weight loss will be developed by combining two approaches: (i) review of the most frequent diagnostic codes entered in the clinical record within the period surrounding the unexpected weight loss code (descriptive study analysis section); (ii) review of the literature on causes of unexpected weight loss [1, 2]. A list of these candidate conditions will be reviewed independently by four co-investigators until consensus is reached on up to 20 serious diseases to be identified in the 24 months following the weight loss code.

Covariates

Data will also be extracted to explore the effect of the following factors which could independently impact the recording of weight and the occurrence of cancer:

  1. Personal characteristics—age, gender, ethnicity, smoking history, alcohol intake, family history of cancer, and IMD score recorded before the date of the weight loss code (index date).

  2. Co-morbidity—recorded before the index date (no time limit) or implied from the prescribing record at the index date.

  3. Other cancer symptoms and signs—using Read Codes for symptoms shown to have an independent association with cancer as described by NICE [3]. These will be sought for 3 months before to 2 years after the index date.

  4. Results of basic cancer investigations used routinely in primary care: CxR, FBC, LFTs (inc. alkaline phosphatase), calcium, PSA, CA125, and inflammatory markers. These will be sought for 3 months before to 2 years after the index date.

Data/statistical analysis

Aim 1: Descriptive study

To describe how often and when weight is recorded, we will request preliminary CPRD searches to identify all: (1) Read coded entries for weight loss and (2) quantitative weight measurements.

A subset of patients with weight measurements and unexpected weight loss codes will be used to develop a rule-based search strategy to categorise: (1) the clinical purpose (e.g. prevention, monitoring, diagnosis); (2) the related clinical condition (e.g. diabetes, heart failure, cancer). The GPs’ subsequent actions will be described in terms of (1) investigations requested, (2) medications prescribed, and (3) referrals made. The search strategy will then be applied to the entire cohort of weight measurements and weight loss codes.

The most effective method to identify the reason for the weight entry and the subsequent action will be investigated. For example, codelists will be developed to capture the clinical purpose of the consultation associated with each weight measurement or weight loss code: health check codes will be used to identify prevention activity; chronic disease review codes will be used to identify monitoring. For associated clinical conditions, symptom and diagnostic codes entered at the same time as each weight measurement or weight loss code will be ascertained and frequency ranked for the entire descriptive study population. Initially, searches will be performed on the day of the weight entry, then a sensitivity analysis will be performed increasing the time window to ± 1 day of the weight entry, then 1 week, 1 month, and so on. This strategy will be repeated to identify investigation and referral codes following entry of the weight loss code.

Aim 2: Cohort analysis

Cumulative incidence plots

Cumulative incidence plots will be used to describe the probability of cancer or serious disease over time for those with and without weight loss. These will be assessed in aggregate and stratified by disease type, cancer stage, grade, tumour size, histology, and covariates.

Differences between those with and without weight loss will be assessed using the log-rank test.

Multivariate Cox regression

Cox regression will be used to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for cancer or serious disease associated with weight loss recorded as a symptom.

The impact of choosing to restrict the follow-up period on the predictive value of weight loss will be explored by limiting the analysis by time period (0–6, 6–12, 12–18, and 18–24 months) and by including weight loss as a time dependent variable.

Age at index date, sex, ethnicity, IMD score, co-morbidity, smoking, and alcohol intake will be included, and the predictive value of other symptoms and investigations will be explored for (1) all cancers in aggregate, (2) cancer type, (3) by cancer stage, (4) by tumour size, (5) by grade of cancer and (6) serious disease type.

Performance of diagnostic strategies

To allow clinical guidance to be developed on how to rule-in or rule-out cancer or serious disease in adult patients (> 18 years) with unexpected weight loss, diagnostic accuracy measures will be calculated for investigative strategies including those described in the literature including the subgroups of (1) gender and (2) age-group.

Plan for addressing confounding

Aim 1: Descriptive study

Not required.

Aim 2: Cohort analysis

Patients who have conditions which might explain the weight loss (e.g. co-morbidities at the time of entry to the cohort or planned dieting) will be included and the impact of their inclusion assessed in multivariate and sensitivity analyses.

Patients with coded weight loss will be matched with patients without a weight loss code based on GP practice to account for systematic biases in coding between practices.

Age at index date, sex, IMD score, co-morbidity, smoking, and alcohol intake will be adjusted for in the multivariate modelling.

Plan for addressing missing data

Aim 1: Descriptive study

Weight is cited as a missing variable in CPRD as GPs do not routinely measure weight in NHS primary care [8]. This descriptive analysis will add to our understanding of how often and when weight is recorded.

We will also describe the completeness of personal characteristics (as defined above) in relation to weight measurements and weight loss codes.

Aim 2: Cohort analysis

As measurements appear to be too infrequent to allow us to identify weight loss from serial weight measurement data, the cohort design will make best use of the coded weight loss information available in CPRD. For this reason, we do not intend to impute missing weight measurement values in the primary analysis, although the feasibility of using multiple imputation to address missing covariate values will be explored [10].

Discussion

Within this section, we expand on the protocol as submitted to ISAC to elucidate decisions made about study design and to report developments made since commencing the study. We have incorporated and expanded upon the “Limitations of the study design, data sources and analytical methods” section of the original ISAC protocol.

Reliance on weight loss coding

It appears from our preliminary searches that weight measurement is infrequent for the majority of patients in primary care, most likely initiated by a concern for underlying disease or existing chronic disease management. This is consistent with studies that acknowledge weight measurement as a source of missing data in NHS primary care records [8]. Consequently, the detection of weight loss from serial weight measurements cannot be relied on as a method of defining weight loss. Our descriptive analysis is designed to identify whether a group of patients exists who undergo weight measurements more frequently, in which a future analysis involving serial weight measurements may be feasible. However, any subgroup is unlikely to be representative of the NHS primary care population. We have therefore chosen to focus on weight loss coding.

As with previous primary care studies using routinely collected data, an assumption will be made that the absence of a symptom code represents the absence of the symptom [5, 11]. This assumption has two major limitations: firstly, a coded entry is reliant on the patient visiting the GP and reporting the symptom; and secondly, that the GP chooses to enter the code in the record. Lack of the former would lead to an underestimation of the associated HR, and for the latter, selective recording of symptoms only deemed severe by the GP could lead to overestimated HRs. The latter is likely to differ by GP but cluster by GP practice, as GPs within the same practice are likely to have more similar approaches to coding. One method to address these limitations would be to analyse free-text entries to identify reported but uncoded symptoms, but at present CPRD does not allow requests for free-text entries and we will cite this as a weakness of our study [12]. We decided to adjust for age and sex in multivariate analysis as the association between weight loss and cancer is not established for these variables.

Sample size for cohort analysis

Progress since the initial ISAC application has established that there are 148,000 patients eligible patients aged > 18 years with an unexpected weight loss code as described in Appendix 1 (preliminary pilot work had suggested there was at least 30,000). This will therefore be the largest primary care CPRD cohort study using unexpected weight loss coding as the exposure variable. We originally calculated that only 2184 patients with weight loss are required to detect a hazard ratio of 2 at 99% power (0.05% alpha) using an enrolment ratio of 1:5. That is, a change in a cancer risk from a PPV of 1.5% in patients without weight loss to 3% in patients with weight loss. An alternative approach to estimating sample size is the number of Events Per Varaible in multivariate modelling. If 3% of patients with weight loss develop cancer the number of Events Per Variable will far exceed the minimum number of ten required for robust multivariate modelling. It is anticipated that the study will therefore have sufficient power for stratification by cancer type.

We aim to understand the association between weight loss and cancer in as much detail as the data permits. However, we accept it may not be possible to stratify for cancer stage or for other covariates with sufficient numbers remaining in each stratum. Cancer stage information is unsatisfactory in CPRD, which is why we have requested data linkage to the cancer registry (which will also be incomplete, but less so). Lifestyle covariates are non-essential for our main aim (to determine the predictive value of weight loss for cancer), and we will only perform analysis on sub-strata when numbers permit. Multiple imputation will be explored for these (and all other relevant missing) variables.

Investigation and referral outcomes

There remains uncertainty over the completeness of investigation and referral data until the descriptive analysis has been conducted. Data for laboratory investigations are likely to be more complete than data on radiological and endoscopic investigations, as laboratory investigations are commonly transmitted directly into the electronic health record from the laboratory whereas results for the other tests are not. Further linkage to the Diagnostic Imaging Dataset (for radiology activity) and Hospital Event Statistics (for endoscopy activity) may be necessary if these data are judged to be incomplete following the descriptive analysis, which would allow a formal comparison of data completeness to be conducted between these datasets and CPRD.

Implications

A second cohort study using American primary care data is also in set-up to assess whether there is greater value in defining weight loss using serial weight measurements rather than a reliance on patient reported weight loss and a GP entered code. In particular, this study aims to establish whether weight loss detected using change in serial weight measurements leads to less advanced disease at diagnosis.

Together, these studies will provide the largest reported retrospective cohorts of primary care patients with unexpected weight loss used to understand the association between unexpected weight loss and serious disease including cancer. We hope our findings will directly inform international guidelines for the management of unexpected weight loss in primary care populations.

Acknowledgements

We thank Professor David Mant for his insight and expertise that greatly assisted the development of this protocol.

Funding

BDN is funded by NIHR DRF-2015-08-185. The NIHR peer-reviewed this protocol at an earlier stage as part of the application for funding. This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health.

Availability of data and materials

Not applicable.

Abbreviations

BMI

Body mass index

CPRD

Clinical Practice Research Datalink

IMD

Index of Multiple Deprivation

ISAC

Independent Scientific Advisory Group (to the CPRD)

Medcode

The CPRD unique code for the medical term selected by the GP

NCDR

National Cancer Data Repository

NICE

National Institute for Health and Care Excellence

Read code

The standard clinical terminology system used in general practice in the UK

Authors’ contributions

BDN prepared the first draft of the protocol. All authors reviewed and edited the protocol. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Ethics approval and consent to participate

Not Applicable.

Consent for publication

Not Applicable.

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Contributor Information

B. D. Nicholson, Email: brian.nicholson@phc.ox.ac.uk

P. Aveyard, Email: paul.aveyard@phc.ox.ac.uk

F. D. R. Hobbs, Email: richard.hobbs@phc.ox.ac.uk

M. Smith, Email: margaret.smith@phc.ox.ac.uk

A. Fuller, Email: alice.fuller@phc.ox.ac.uk

R. Perera, Email: rafael.perera@phc.ox.ac.uk

W. Hamilton, Email: W.hamilton@exeter.ac.uk

S. Stevens, Email: sarah.steven@phc.ox.ac.uk

C. R. Bankhead, Email: clare.bankhead@phc.ox.ac.uk

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Associated Data

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Data Availability Statement

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