Fig 3.

Predicted cognitive trajectory before and after admission events. Trajectories represent means and 95% credible intervals for a hypothetical average patient with a surgical or medical admission or stroke occurring at the median age (67.4 years) for first admission (or no admission). Shaded region reflects credible intervals for the impact of surgical admissions, medical admissions, and stroke rather than population variability in baseline and decline, because random effects coefficients and residuals are ignored for these prediction intervals (ie, they reflect the trajectory of a hypothetical average participant rather than the family of trajectories for a hypothetical population)