Table 5.
t-static Errors from the Various Models and the Standard t-static Error Values.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Standard t-static error values at 95% confidence level [50] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARS Model | |||||||||||||
| 1 Day a-head | 1.114 | -1.647 | 0.059 | 0.412 | -0.438 | 0.101 | 0.009 | -0.516 | -0.289 | -0.242 | -0.066 | 0.414 | 2.069 |
| 2 Day a-head | 1.508 | -1.892 | -0.163 | 0.547 | -0.762 | 0.012 | 0.273 | 0.330 | 0.201 | -0.049 | -0.041 | 0.626 | 2.013 |
| 3 Day a-head | 0.772 | -1.874 | 0.043 | 0.450 | 0.113 | -0.123 | 0.381 | 0.892 | 0.317 | -0.203 | -0.570 | 0.227 | 1.994 |
| 4 Day a-head | -0.577 | -1.908 | 0.416 | 0.518 | -0.195 | -0.197 | -0.193 | 0.686 | 0.258 | -0.449 | -0.793 | -0.924 | 1.984 |
| 5 Day a-head | -0.241 | -1.918 | 0.633 | 0.382 | -0.190 | -0.385 | 0.783 | 0.548 | 0.177 | -0.586 | -1.157 | -0.111 | 1.98 |
| 6 Day a-head | -0.859 | -1.965 | 0.431 | -0.232 | -0.298 | -1.251 | 1.328 | 0.631 | -0.096 | -0.892 | -0.900 | -0.294 | 1.976 |
| M5 | |||||||||||||
| 1 Day a-head | 0.851 | 0.066 | 0.201 | 0.592 | -0.333 | 0.294 | 0.064 | -0.507 | 0.271 | 0.047 | -0.433 | 0.817 | 2.069 |
| 2 Day a-head | 1.510 | -0.052 | -0.270 | 0.600 | -0.608 | 0.052 | -0.311 | 1.285 | 0.484 | 0.043 | -0.385 | 1.510 | 2.013 |
| 3 Day a-head | 1.014 | -0.271 | -0.228 | 0.668 | 0.421 | -0.084 | 0.205 | 1.285 | 0.389 | 0.041 | 0.019 | 1.014 | 1.994 |
| 4 Day a-head | -0.001 | -0.634 | 0.134 | 0.664 | -0.121 | -0.239 | 1.037 | 1.325 | 0.342 | 0.148 | -0.042 | -0.276 | 1.984 |
| 5 Day a-head | 1.238 | -0.745 | 0.288 | 0.440 | -0.021 | -0.239 | 1.316 | 1.293 | 0.360 | 0.110 | -0.312 | 1.238 | 1.98 |
| 6 Day a-head | 1.255 | -0.486 | 0.657 | 0.077 | 0.047 | 0.109 | 1.642 | 1.188 | 0.386 | 0.002 | -0.335 | 1.255 | 1.976 |
| Random Forest Model | |||||||||||||
| 1 Day a-head | 0.395 | -0.161 | 0.081 | 0.275 | -0.488 | 0.101 | -0.246 | -0.376 | -0.182 | -0.339 | -0.227 | 0.377 | 2.069 |
| 2 Day a-head | 1.162 | -0.369 | -0.340 | 0.271 | -0.329 | -0.039 | -0.493 | 0.541 | 0.165 | -0.119 | 0.049 | 1.124 | 2.013 |
| 3 Day a-head | 0.839 | -0.518 | -0.121 | 0.130 | 0.573 | -0.228 | -0.144 | 0.541 | 0.175 | -0.140 | -0.001 | 0.829 | 1.994 |
| 4 Day a-head | -0.039 | -0.756 | 0.106 | 0.005 | 0.022 | -0.486 | 0.802 | 0.764 | 0.040 | -0.269 | -0.017 | -0.022 | 1.984 |
| 5 Day a-head | 1.721 | -1.015 | 0.139 | -0.209 | -0.198 | -0.530 | 0.787 | 0.671 | 0.138 | -0.538 | -0.095 | 1.709 | 1.98 |
| 6 Day a-head | 1.429 | -1.048 | 1.178 | -0.779 | -0.191 | -0.670 | 0.828 | 0.780 | 0.263 | -0.765 | 0.078 | 1.421 | 1.976 |
| Regression Tree Model | |||||||||||||
| 1 Day a-head | 0.620 | -0.423 | -0.012 | 0.427 | -0.269 | -0.187 | 0.156 | -0.215 | -1.010 | -0.456 | -0.204 | 0.617 | 2.069 |
| 2 Day a-head | 0.865 | -0.575 | -0.321 | 0.283 | 0.224 | -0.284 | -0.513 | 0.659 | -0.937 | -0.358 | -0.814 | 0.865 | 2.013 |
| 3 Day a-head | 0.510 | -0.477 | 0.124 | -0.114 | 1.171 | -0.372 | 0.034 | 0.593 | -0.859 | -0.584 | -0.794 | 0.510 | 1.994 |
| 4 Day a-head | -0.476 | -0.926 | 0.347 | -0.208 | 0.281 | -0.813 | 0.093 | 0.509 | -1.077 | -0.656 | -0.892 | -0.193 | 1.984 |
| 5 Day a-head | 0.954 | -1.240 | 0.411 | -0.374 | 0.925 | -0.611 | -0.080 | 0.093 | -0.456 | -0.724 | -0.818 | 0.954 | 1.98 |
| 6 Day a-head | 0.771 | -1.265 | 1.508 | -0.489 | 0.631 | -0.998 | 0.182 | 0.066 | -0.332 | -0.678 | -0.775 | 0.771 | 1.976 |