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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2020 Dec 1.
Published in final edited form as: Menopause. 2019 Dec;26(12):1385–1394. doi: 10.1097/GME.0000000000001411

Figure 2: Stratified Kaplan-Meier plot to evaluate model discrimination for A) myocardial infarction, B) lung cancer, C) hip fracture, D) death.

Figure 2:

Note that the vertical axis is truncated to 0.1 in panels A, B, and C and to 0.25 in panel D. They do not extend to 1 due to the rarity of the events. Each line represents the lowest to highest risk quintile, according to a woman’s risk as predicted by the 10-year model for myocardial infarction, lung cancer, hip fracture, and death in the test set. In a model that discriminates well, we would expect that the highest risk quintile would have the highest cumulative risk and the lowest risk quintile would have the lowest observed cumulative risk