Note that the vertical axis is truncated to 0.1 in panels A, B, and C and to 0.25 in panel D. They do not extend to 1 due
to the rarity of the events. Each line represents the lowest to highest risk quintile, according to a woman’s risk as
predicted by the 10-year model for myocardial infarction, lung cancer, hip fracture, and death in the test set. In a model that
discriminates well, we would expect that the highest risk quintile would have the highest cumulative risk and the lowest risk
quintile would have the lowest observed cumulative risk