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. 2019 Oct 3;42(12):1210–1221. doi: 10.1002/clc.23276

New‐onset atrial fibrillation predicting for complicating cardiac adverse outcome in scrub typhus infection

Suk‐Yong Jang 1, Ki‐Woon Kang 2,, Jun Hyung Kim 3, Bongyoung Kim 4, Jung Yeon Chin 2, Sang Hyun Park 2, Yu Jeong Choi 2, Kyung Tae Jung 2, Seong‐Kyu Lee 2
PMCID: PMC6906989  PMID: 31580531

Abstract

Background

Scrub typhus is a well‐known infectious disorder of the Asia‐Pacific region. However, adverse cardiac outcomes are an under‐recognized complication of scrub typhus infection, and new‐onset AF has been reported to be a prognostic factor in other, more common infectious diseases. The present study investigated whether new‐onset atrial fibrillation (AF) is significantly associated with 3‐month mortality and adverse cardiac complications in scrub typhus infection.

Methods

We examined data from the National Health Information Database (NHID) which covers nearly the entire population of South Korea, from 2006 to 2016. In total, 233 473 patients diagnosed with scrub typhus infection were selected as study participants. New‐onset AF, acute heart failure (AHF), ischemic heart disease (IHD), and 3‐month mortality were analyzed using a generalized estimating equation model with a Poisson distribution.

Results

Of these, 2402 patients (1%) were diagnosed with new‐onset AF (87.2% were over 60 years of age, 43.3% were male). Those with new‐onset AF were more likely to have underlying cardiovascular disease compared to those without new‐onset AF. After being adjusted for demographic factors and comorbidities, those with new‐onset AF had a higher incidence risk of concurrent AHF (4.1‐fold) and IHD (1.9‐fold) compared with those without new‐onset AF. In particular, the 3‐month mortality was also significantly associated with new‐onset AF (1.3‐fold), concurrent AHF (2.4‐fold), and IHD (13.7‐fold).

Conclusions

New‐onset AF was significantly associated with 3‐month mortality and concurrent AHF and IHD. Therefore, new‐onset AF could be a poor prognostic factor for 3‐month mortality and cardiac complications in scrub typhus infection.

Keywords: Atrial fibrillation, Heart failure, Ischemic heart disease, Scrub typhus

1. INTRODUCTION

Scrub typhus is a well‐known, seasonal infection caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, which mainly confined to Southeastern Asia and the Western Pacific rim.1, 2 Recently, the geographical distribution of its endemic area has been widening with its overall mortality rate increasing. However, scrub‐typhus‐induced adverse cardiovascular complications remain remarkably under‐recognized.3 The majority of scrub typhus infections resolve with proper antibiotics and supportive treatment without any complications.4 However, with regards to scrub typhus infection complications,5, 6, 7 the overall mortality rate has been reported to range from overall 16% to 30%, which might be attributed to cardiovascular complications.8, 9 In particular, new‐onset atrial fibrillation (AF) has been reported as a poor prognostic factor in common infectious disorders,10, 11 which points to the need for investigating the association between scrub typhus infection and subsequent adverse cardiac events. New‐onset AF, acute heart failure (AHF), and ischemic heart disease (IHD) have been recognized as the major cardiac manifestations of public health adverse outcomes and the primary end points of infection‐induced cardiovascular outcomes.11, 12, 13 Therefore, we investigated whether new‐onset AF was significantly associated with 3‐month mortality and concurrent AHF and IHD in a nationwide cohort of scrub typhus infection.

2. METHODS

2.1. Data source

This study used data from the National Health Information Database (NHID) from 2006 to 2016. This is a public database on healthcare utilization, health screening, sociodemographic variables, and mortality for the entire population of South Korea (hereafter referred to as “Korea”), which was formed by the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS).14 Under universal medical coverage, all medical claims data are collected by the NHIS as the single insurer in Korea; therefore, all individuals included in the NHID were followed until 2017 unless there was a death or disqualification from National Health Insurance for an appropriate reason, such as emigration. The NHID includes an eligibility database, a national health screening database, a healthcare utilization database, a long‐term care insurance database, and a healthcare provider database.14 The healthcare utilization database is based on data collected during the processing of healthcare claims for services used and includes records of inpatient and outpatient usage (diagnosis, length of stay, treatment costs, services received) and prescription records (drug code, days prescribed, daily dosage).14 Access to the NHID can be obtained through the Health Insurance Data Service home page [http://nhiss.nhis.or.kr].

2.2. Sample size and collection

The population included in the NHID was over 49 million in 2006 and 51 million in 2016. From the NHID, during 2006 to 2016, a total of 240 329 patients with scrub typhus were selected using three criteria: (a) diagnosis code of ICD‐10 A753 (typhus fever due to Rickettsia tsutsugamushi), A752 (typhus fever due to Rickettsia typhi), or A759 (typhus fever, unspecified); (b) prescription of doxycycline or azithromycin for at least 3 days; and (c) 20 years of age or over at the time of diagnosis.12 In order to detect relevant cases, 2661 patients were excluded due to prior history of AF or acute myocarditis. Additionally, 4195 patients with missing values were excluded. Finally, a total of 233 473 patients with scrub typhus were selected as study participants. The index date (date of diagnosis) was defined as the date of first prescription.

2.3. Definition of new‐onset atrial fibrillation, acute heart failure, ischemic heart disease, and mortality

New‐onset AF was defined with a diagnosis code of ICD‐10 I48 (paroxysmal AF) within 30 days of the index date and no prior history of AF. New‐onset AHF was defined by a diagnosis code of ICD‐10 I40 (acute myocarditis), I30 (acute pericarditis), or I50 (heart failure) within 30 days of the index date. To exclude AHF induced by IHD, patients treated with coronary bypass graft surgery, primary coronary intervention, or thrombolytic agents (streptokinase, urokinase, tenecteplase) were further excluded. New‐onset IHD was defined as: (a) a diagnosis code of ICD‐10 I21 (acute myocardial infarction) or I20 (angina pectoris) within 30 days of the index date; and (b) treatment with coronary bypass graft surgery, primary coronary intervention, or thrombolytic agents (streptokinase, urokinase, tenecteplase). Three‐month all‐cause mortality was defined as death due to any cause within 90 days of the index date. Dates of deaths were obtained using each participant's unique, de‐identified number code, which is linked to mortality information from the Korean National Statistical Office.

2.4. Statistical analysis

To assess the association between new‐onset AF and the risk of AHF, IHD, and 30‐day mortality, a generalized estimating equation model with a Poisson distribution and logarithmic link function was used to estimate adjusted risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Potential confounders were adjusted for using multivariable‐adjusted regression models. The participants' level of comorbidities were assessed using the diagnostic codes during the three years prior to the index date using the Quan's International Statistical Classification of Disease and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (ICD‐10) coding algorithm of the Charlson Comorbidity Score (CCS).15 The presence of the disease categories AHF, IHD, stroke, chronic kidney disease, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and malignancy were defined based on at least two outpatient visits or one inpatient admission with the corresponding primary or secondary diagnosis codes.

Statistical analyses were conducted using SAS software, version 9.4 (SAS Institute, Cary, North Carolina). A P value less than .05 was considered statistically significant.

3. RESULTS

3.1. Baseline characteristics

Most of the patients within the scrub typhus cohort were female residents (41.1%, male) in non‐metropolitan areas (75.0%) treated with doxycycline (93.7%). These patients and had low incidence of previous HF (1.2%), previous IHD (5.9%), chronic kidney disease (0.4%), diabetes (13.3%), or a CCS over three (5.1%).

3.2. Incidence of new‐onset AF

Of the 233 473‐scrub typhus infection records in the cohort, 2402 (1.0%) patients were diagnosed as having new‐onset AF during treatment for scrub typhus infection. Those with new‐onset AF tended to be over the age of 60 (87.2%) with significantly higher incidences of intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalization (7.7% vs 0.9%), previous HF (5.8% vs 1.2%), previous IHD (10.7% vs 5.9%), previous stroke (7.9% vs 3.5%), chronic kidney disease (1.0% vs 0.4%), diabetes (17.1% vs 13.2%), and hypertension (54.0% vs 34.0%) compared to those without new‐onset AF (Table 1).

Table 1.

Baseline characteristics of scrub typhus patients with and without new‐onset atrial fibrillation

Variables Total 233 473 With new‐onset AF 2402 Without AF 231 071 P
Age <.0001
20‐49 48 519 (20.7%) 109 (4.5%) 48 410 (20.9%)
50‐59 53 480 (22.9%) 199 (8.2%) 53 281 (23.0%)
60‐69 60 676 (25.9%) 537 (22.3%) 60 139 (26.0%)
70‐79 53 648 (22.9%) 972 (40.4%) 52 676 (22.8%)
Over 80 17 150 (7.35%) 585 (24.3%) 16 565 (7.1%)
Sex 0.0315
Male 96 071 (41.1%) 1040 (43.3%) 95 031 (41.1%)
Female 137 402 (58.8%) 1362 (56.7%) 136 040 (58.8%)
Insurance
Medical aids 12 883 (5.5%) 207 (8.6%) 12 676 (5.4%)
Health insurance <.0001
1Q 38 844 (16.6%) 374 (15.5%) 38 470 (16.6%)
2Q 42 517 (18.2%) 383 (15.9%) 42 134 (18.2%)
3Q 58 837 (25.2%) 517 (21.5%) 58 320 (25.2%)
4Q 80 392 (34.4%) 921 (38.3%) 79 471 (34.3%)
Residential area 0.1446
Metropolitan 58 200 (24.9%) 568 (23.6%) 57 632 (24.9%)
Non‐metropolitan 175 273 (75.0%) 1834 (76.3%) 173 439 (75.0%)
Institution <.0001
Outpatient care 96 057 (41.1%) 66 (2.7%) 95 991 (41.5%)
Admission
Less 300 84 847 (36.3%) 982 (40.8%) 83 865 (36.2%)
300‐799 43 253 (18.5%) 1077 (44.8%) 42 176 (18.2%)
Over 800 9316 (3.9%) 277 (11.5%) 9039 (3.9%)
Antibiotics <.0001
Doxycycline 218 791 (93.7%) 1932 (80.4%) 216 859 (93.8%)
Azithromycin 8910 (3.8%) 227 (9.4%) 8683 (3.7%)
Both 5772 (2.4%) 243 (10.1%) 5529 (2.3%)
ICU care <.0001
Yes 2342 (0.1%) 185 (7.7%) 2157 (0.9%)
Medical history
Past scrub typhus <.0001
Yes 7300 (3.1%) 42 (1.7%) 7258 (3.1%)
Congestive heart failure <.0001
Yes 2973 (1.2%) 140 (5.8%) 2833 (1.2%)
Ischemic heart disease <.0001
Yes 13 995 (5.9%) 258 (10.7%) 13 737 (5.9%)
Stroke <.0001
Yes 8355 (3.5%) 190 (7.9%) 8165 (3.5%)
Chronic kidney disease <.0001
Yes 1121 (0.4%) 26 (1.0%) 1095 (0.4%)
Diabetes mellitus <.0001
Yes 31 072 (13.3%) 412 (17.1%) 30 660 (13.2%)
Hypertension <.0001
Yes 80 059 (34.2%) 1299 (54.0%) 78 760 (34.0%)
Malignancy 0.7353
Yes 9979 (4.2%) 106 (4.4%) 9873 (4.2%)
Charlson Comorbidity Score <.0001
0 142 097 (60.8%) 1227 (51.0%) 140 870 (60.9%)
1 57 174 (24.4%) 710 (29.5%) 56 464 (24.4%)
2 22 228 (9.5%) 294 (12.2%) 21 934 (9.4%)
Over 3 11 974 (5.1%) 171 (7.1%) 11 803 (5.1%)
Calendar year <.0001
2006 22 470 (9.6%) 221 (9.2%) 22 249 (9.6%)
2007 19 413 (8.3%) 187 (7.7%) 19 226 (8.3%)
2008 21 238 (9.0%) 199 (8.2%) 21 039 (9.1%)
2009 22 726 (9.7%) 197 (8.2%) 22 529 (9.7%)
2010 19 924 (8.5%) 228 (9.4%) 19 696 (8.5%)
2011 18 435 (7.8%) 180 (7.4%) 18 255 (7.9%)
2012 24 784 (10.6%) 230 (9.5%) 24 554 (10.6%)
2013 24 547 (10.5%) 241 (10.0%) 24 306 (10.5%)
2014 17 916 (7.6%) 243 (10.0%) 17 673 (7.6%)
2015 20 397 (8.7%) 303 (12.6%) 20 094 (8.7%)
2016 21 623 (9.2%) 173 (7.2%) 21 450 (9.2%)

3.3. Incidence risk ratio for cardiovascular complication

Those with new‐onset AF had an incidence risk ratio (IRR) of 4.1 for AHF within a few days of scrub typhus infection diagnosis compared with those without new‐onset AF (Figure 1A). Furthermore, patients over 50 years of age had an increased IRR of 2.0 to 5.4 for AHF. Patients admitted to the ICU or having a previous diagnosis of HF or IHD had an IRR for AHF of 2.4, 2.2, and 1.2, respectively, after being adjusted for demographic factors and comorbidities (Table 2).

Figure 1.

Figure 1

Comparison of survival rate free from, A, acute heart failure, B, ischemic heart disease, C, all‐cause mortality in patients diagnosed as scrub typhus between with and without new‐onset atrial fibrillation (NAF)

Table 2.

Incidence risk ratio for the occurrence of acute heart failure according to the development of new‐onset atrial fibrillation among scrub typhus patients

Cumulative incidence Crude model Adjusted model
Variables Events At risk % Relative risk 95% confidence interval P Adjust relative risk 95% confidence interval P
New‐onset AF
No 3273 231 071 1.42 1.00 1.00
Yes 446 2402 18.57 13.11 11.98 14.35 <.0001 4.12 4.55 3.73 <.0001
Age
20‐49 235 48 519 0.48 1.00 1.00
50‐59 349 53 480 0.65 1.35 1.14 1.59 .0004 1.27 1.49 1.07 .0052
60‐69 711 60 676 1.17 2.42 2.09 2.80 <.0001 2.02 2.35 1.74 <.0001
70‐79 1450 53 648 2.70 5.58 4.86 6.40 <.0001 3.59 4.15 3.10 <.0001
Over 80 974 17 150 5.68 11.73 10.18 13.51 <.0001 5.46 6.36 4.69 <.0001
Sex
Male 1335 96 071 1.39 0.80 0.75 0.86 <.0001 0.94 1.00 0.88 .0536
Female 2384 137 402 1.74 1.00 1.00
Insurance
Medical aids 352 12 883 2.73 1.00 1.00
Health insurance
1Q 630 38 844 1.62 0.59 0.52 0.68 <.0001 0.89 1.01 0.78 .0737
2Q 531 42 517 1.25 0.46 0.40 0.52 <.0001 0.78 0.89 0.68 .0002
3Q 803 58 837 1.36 0.50 0.44 0.57 <.0001 0.80 0.91 0.71 .0004
4Q 1403 80 392 1.75 0.64 0.57 0.72 <.0001 0.78 0.88 0.70 <.0001
Residential area
Metropolitan 865 58 200 1.49 1.00 1.00
Non‐metropolitan 2854 175 273 1.63 0.91 0.85 0.98 .0178 0.97 1.05 0.90 .5052
Institution
Outpatient care 115 96 057 0.12 1.00 1.00
Antibiotics
Doxycycline 3016 218 791 1.38 1.00 1.00
Azithromycin 382 8910 4.29 3.11 2.80 3.45 <.0001 1.59 1.77 1.43 <.0001
Both 321 5772 5.56 4.03 3.61 4.51 <.0001 1.52 1.70 1.35 <.0001
ICU care
No 3510 231 131 1.52 1.00 1.00
Yes 209 2342 8.92 5.88 5.14 6.72 <.0001 2.46 2.84 2.13 <.0001
Medical history
Past scrub typhus
No 3628 226 173 1.60 1.00 1.00
Yes 91 7300 1.25 0.78 0.63 0.96 .0169 0.81 0.99 0.66 .0417
Congestive heart failure
No 3492 230 500 1.52 1.00 1.00
Yes 227 2973 7.64 5.04 4.43 5.74 <.0001 2.20 2.53 1.92 <.0001
Ischemic heart disease
No 3251 219 478 1.48 1.00 1.00
Yes 468 13 995 3.34 2.26 2.05 2.48 <.0001 1.28 1.42 1.16 <.0001
Stroke
No 3439 225 118 1.53 1.00 1.00
Yes 280 8355 3.35 2.19 1.95 2.47 <.0001 1.09 1.23 0.96 .1742
Chronic kidney disease
No 3673 232 352 1.58 1.00 1.00
Yes 46 1121 4.10 2.60 1.95 3.45 <.0001 1.05 1.42 0.78 .7467
Diabetes mellitus
No 2978 202 401 1.47 1.00 1.00
Yes 741 31 072 2.38 1.62 1.50 1.76 <.0001 1.02 1.10 0.94 .6843
Hypertention
No 1713 153 414 1.12 1.00 1.00
Yes 2006 80 059 2.51 2.24 2.11 2.39 <.0001 1.16 1.25 1.08 <.0001
Malignancy
No 3539 223 494 1.58 1.00 1.00
Yes 180 9979 1.80 1.14 0.98 1.32 .0852 0.86 1.02 0.72 .0767
Charlson Comorbidity Score
0 1838 142 097 1.29 1.00 1.00
1 1036 57 174 1.81 1.40 1.30 1.51 <.0001 0.95 1.02 0.88 .1554
2 544 22 228 2.45 1.89 1.72 2.08 <.0001 1.09 1.21 0.99 .0896
Over 3 301 11 974 2.51 1.94 1.72 2.19 <.0001 0.96 1.11 0.83 .5876

Those with new‐onset AF had an IRR of 1.9 for IHD compared with those without new‐onset AF (Figure 1B). Patients over the age of 50 also had an increased IRR for IHD of 2.9 to 14.6. Those admitted to the ICU, or having a past scrub typhus infection, HF or IHD had an IRR for IHD of 5.6, 2.0, 1.5, and 2.0, respectively, after being adjusted for demographic factors and comorbidities (Table 3).

Table 3.

Incidence risk ratio for the occurrence of ischemic heart disease according to the development of new‐onset atrial fibrillation among scrub typhus patients

Cumulative incidence Crude model Adjusted model
Variables Events At risk % Relative risk 95% confidence interval P Adjust relative risk 95% confidence interval P
New‐onset AF 1.00
No 278 231 071 0.12 1.00
Yes 27 2402 1.12 9.34 6.31 13.84 <.0001 1.95 3.04 1.25 .0032
Age
20‐49 8 48 519 0.02 1.00 1.00
50‐59 26 53 480 0.05 2.95 1.34 6.51 .0075 2.99 6.64 1.35 .0071
60‐69 65 60 676 0.11 6.50 3.12 13.54 <.0001 5.45 11.51 2.58 <.0001
70‐79 128 53 648 0.24 14.47 7.08 29.56 <.0001 9.60 19.94 4.62 <.0001
Over 80 78 17 150 0.45 27.58 13.33 57.09 <.0001 14.65 31.00 6.92 <.0001
Sex
Male 164 96 071 0.17 1.66 1.33 2.08 <.0001 1.96 2.46 1.56 <.0001
Female 141 137 402 0.10 1.00 1.00
Insurance
Medical aids 42 12 883 0.33 1.00 1.00
Health insurance
1Q 47 38 844 0.12 0.37 0.24 0.56 <.0001 0.61 0.92 0.40 .0197
2Q 44 42 517 0.10 0.32 0.21 0.48 <.0001 0.55 0.86 0.36 .0078
3Q 61 58 837 0.10 0.32 0.21 0.47 <.0001 0.51 0.77 0.34 .0013
4Q 111 80 392 0.14 0.42 0.30 0.60 <.0001 0.52 0.74 0.36 .0003
Residential area
Metropolitan 81 58 200 0.14 1.00 1.00
Non‐metropolitan 224 175 273 0.13 1.09 0.84 1.40 .5105 1.16 1.50 0.90 .2538
Institution
Outpatient care 19 96 057 0.02 1.00 1.00
Antibiotics
Doxycycline 221 218 791 0.10 1.00 1.00
Azithromycin 35 8910 0.39 3.89 2.72 5.55 <.0001 1.97 2.86 1.35 .0004
Both 49 5772 0.85 8.40 6.17 11.44 <.0001 3.45 4.79 2.48 <.0001
ICU care
No 259 231 131 0.11 1.00 1.00
Yes 46 2342 1.96 17.53 12.84 23.92 <.0001 5.63 7.99 3.97 <.0001
Medical history
Past scrub typhus
No 289 226 173 0.13 1.00 1.00
Yes 16 7300 0.22 1.72 1.04 2.84 .0354 2.08 3.44 1.25 .0046
Congestive heart failure
No 290 230 500 0.13 1.00 1.00
Yes 15 2973 0.50 4.01 2.39 6.73 <.0001 1.50 2.54 0.88 .1342
Ischemic heart disease
No 247 219 478 0.11 1.00 1.00
Yes 58 13 995 0.41 3.68 2.77 4.90 <.0001 2.00 2.71 1.47 <.0001
Stroke
No 281 225 118 0.12 1.00 1.00
Yes 24 8355 0.29 2.30 1.52 3.49 <.0001 0.94 1.45 0.61 .7672
Chronic kidney disease
No 293 232 352 0.13 1.00 1.00
Yes 12 1121 1.07 8.49 4.78 15.07 <.0001 2.67 5.16 1.38 .0035
Diabetes mellitus
No 232 202 401 0.11 1.00 1.00
Yes 73 31 072 0.23 2.05 1.58 2.67 <.0001 1.22 1.62 0.92 .1583
Hypertension
No 130 153 414 0.08 1.00 1.00
Yes 175 80 059 0.22 2.58 2.06 3.24 <.0001 1.25 1.62 0.96 .0929
Malignancy
No 287 223 494 0.13 1.00 1.00
Yes 18 9979 0.18 1.40 0.87 2.26 .1616 0.93 1.61 0.54 .8009
Charlson Comorbidity Score
0 140 142 097 0.10 1.00 1.00
1 89 57 174 0.16 1.58 1.21 2.06 .0007 1.02 1.34 0.77 .8893
2 43 22 228 0.19 1.96 1.40 2.76 .0001 0.98 1.41 0.69 .9271
Over 3 33 11 974 0.28 2.80 1.92 4.09 <.0001 0.97 1.61 0.58 .8956

3.4. Cardiovascular complications and mortality

New‐onset AF, AHF and IHD had an IRR for 3‐month mortality of 1.3, 2.4, and 13.7, respectively, after controlling for demographic factors and comorbidities. Increased age over 50 years also had an increased IRR of 1.8 to 10.2 for 3‐month mortality, and those admitted to the ICU had an IRR for 3‐month mortality of 4.5. Interestingly, those with better economic or health status also showed a lower IRR for mortality than those with poorer economic or health status (Table 4, Figure 1C).

Table 4.

Incidence risk ratio of demographic characteristics and comorbidities for mortality in scrub typhus patients

Cumulative incidence Crude model Adjusted model
Variables Events At risk % Relative risk 95% confidence interval P Adjust relative risk 95% confidence interval P
New‐onset AF
No 1347 231 071 0.58 1.00 1.00
Yes 105 2402 4.37 7.50 6.17 9.11 <.0001 1.34 1.07 1.68 .0106
Acute heart failure
No 1243 229 754 0.54 1.00 1.00
Yes 209 3719 5.62 10.39 9.00 11.98 <.0001 2.41 2.04 2.84 <.0001
Ischemic heart disease
No 1292 233 168 0.55 1.00 1.00
Yes 160 305 52.46 94.67 83.98 106.73 <.0001 13.72 11.03 17.07 <.0001
Age
20‐49 62 48 519 0.13 1.00 1.00
50‐59 121 53 480 0.23 1.77 1.30 2.40 .0003 1.80 1.33 2.44 .0001
60‐69 217 60 676 0.36 2.80 2.11 3.71 <.0001 2.39 1.79 3.18 <.0001
70‐79 569 53 648 1.06 8.30 6.39 10.78 <.0001 5.33 4.06 7.02 <.0001
Over 80 483 17 150 2.82 22.04 16.93 28.69 <.0001 10.29 7.76 13.65 <.0001
Sex
Male 751 96 071 0.78 1.53 1.38 1.70 <.0001 1.68 1.51 1.87 <.0001
Female 701 137 402 0.51 1.00 1.00
Insurance
Medical aids 181 12 883 1.41 1.00 1.00
Health insurance
1Q 233 38 844 0.60 0.43 0.35 0.52 <.0001 0.77 0.63 0.94 .0118
2Q 215 42 517 0.51 0.36 0.30 0.44 <.0001 0.73 0.60 0.90 .0033
3Q 308 58 837 0.52 0.37 0.31 0.45 <.0001 0.70 0.58 0.85 .0002
4Q 515 80 392 0.64 0.46 0.39 0.54 <.0001 0.63 0.52 0.75 <.0001
Residential area
Metropolitan 302 58 200 0.52 1.00 1.00
Non‐metropolitan 1150 175 273 0.66 0.79 0.70 0.90 .0003 0.86 0.75 0.98 .0292
Institution
Outpatient care 72 96 057 0.08 1.00 1.00
Admission
Antibiotics
Doxycycline 952 218 791 0.44 1.00 1.00
Azithromycin 310 8910 3.48 8.00 7.05 9.07 <.0001 3.43 2.97 3.96 <.0001
Both 190 5772 3.29 7.57 6.49 8.82 <.0001 2.45 2.07 2.90 <.0001
ICU care
No 1241 231 131 0.54 1.00 1.00
Yes 211 2342 9.01 16.78 14.59 19.30 <.0001 4.51 3.77 5.39 <.0001
Medical history
Past scrub typhus
No 1388 226 173 0.61 1.00 1.00
Yes 64 7300 0.88 1.43 1.11 1.83 .0051 1.19 0.91 1.55 .213
Congestive heart failure
No 1385 230 500 0.60 1.00 1.00
Yes 67 2973 2.25 3.75 2.94 4.78 <.0001 1.45 1.10 1.91 .0083
Ischemic heart disease
No 1294 219 478 0.59 1.00 1.00
Yes 158 13 995 1.13 1.91 1.62 2.26 <.0001 1.01 0.85 1.20 .9023
Stroke
No 1316 225 118 0.58 1.00 1.00
Yes 136 8355 1.63 2.78 2.34 3.32 <.0001 1.10 0.91 1.32 .3361
Chronic kidney disease
No 1412 232 352 0.61 1.00 1.00
Yes 40 1121 3.57 5.87 4.31 8.00 <.0001 1.18 0.81 1.72 .3797
Diabetes mellitus
No 1120 202 401 0.55 1.00 1.00
Yes 332 31 072 1.07 1.93 1.71 2.18 <.0001 1.29 1.13 1.47 .0001
Hypertension
No 704 153 414 0.46 1.00 1.00
Yes 748 80 059 0.93 2.04 1.84 2.26 <.0001 0.94 0.84 1.06 .3192
Malignancy
No 1327 223 494 0.59 1.00 1.00
Yes 125 9979 1.25 2.11 1.76 2.53 <.0001 0.99 0.77 1.26 .9164
Charlson Comorbidity Score
0 565 142 097 0.40 1.00 1.00
1 443 57 174 0.77 1.95 1.72 2.21 <.0001 1.32 1.16 1.49 <.0001
2 227 22 228 1.02 2.57 2.20 2.99 <.0001 1.31 1.11 1.55 .0015
Over 3 217 11 974 1.81 4.56 3.90 5.32 <.0001 1.76 1.43 2.17 <.0001

4. DISCUSSION

In this nationwide scrub typhus infection cohort, patients with new‐onset AF were more likely to be hospitalized in the ICU and had higher 3‐month mortality rates. In particular, new‐onset AF was significantly associated with concurrent AHF or IHD during treatment for scrub typhus infection. Unlike the adverse cardiac complications occurring as a result of common infections,16, 17 evidence to date has been unclear concerning an association between scrub typhus infection and adverse cardiac outcomes.11 The present study is the first to demonstrate that new‐onset AF was significantly associated with 3‐month mortality and adverse cardiac complications in scrub typhus infection.

Occurrence of new‐onset AF has been known to be associated with infection which may be triggered by acute inflammatory condition.18 In critically‐ill patients with common infectious diseases, new‐onset AF has been reported to be significantly associated with all‐cause mortality in the ICU.10, 19 The FROG‐ICU trial demonstrated that new‐onset AF occurred in 19% of all patients in the ICU and had an incidence risk of 2.2‐fold for 1‐year mortality compared to those without new‐onset AF.20 The present study demonstrates that new‐onset AF occurred in the 7.7% of all patients in the ICU and had an incidence risk of 4.5‐fold for 3‐month mortality compared to those without new‐onset AF. It is noteworthy that new‐onset AF in scrub typhus infection developed less frequently, but had a higher risk of mortality than in the other infectious diseases. The reason for the higher mortality and adverse cardiac complications could be explained by the unique pathophysiology of scrub typhus infection,17 which initiates at the site of skin inoculation, evolves into regional lymphadenopathy and spreads to vasculitis with subsequent target organ damage.21 Subsequently, induced myocardial inflammation could develop electrical, functional, and structural remodeling during the pathogenesis of new‐onset AF and AHF.22, 23, 24, 25, 26 The present study also demonstrates that AHF concurrent with new‐onset AF could develop within only a few days of the index diagnosis of scrub typhus infection (Figure 1A). In addition, new‐onset AF was also associated with a greater risk for developing IHD in the critically‐ill status including complicating scrub typhus infection.11, 27, 28 Coronary vasculitis also might induce direct endothelial dysfunction and vascular injury causing atherosclerotic plaque growth or rupture during the pathogenesis of IHD.29, 30 In particular, ECG or rhythm surveillance for cardiac complications could be a necessary monitoring of scrub typhus infection because of the risk of developing atrial or ventricular arrhythmia and changes in the ST segment of ECG as a result of active inflammation in the myocardium.11 Available ECG‐based new‐onset AF or ST segment change could be more readily evaluated31 than time and cost‐consuming echocardiogram‐based AHF or angiogram‐based IHD32 under the care of non‐cardiologic department. ECG or rhythm‐based surveillance for the development of cardiac complications is crucial for preventing scrub typhus infection from developing life‐threatening outcomes.33 This could provide an additional method for reducing adverse cardiac complications in scrub typhus infection.

4.1. Limitations

There are several limitations to the present study. First, the national cohort data does not include lifestyle information, such as alcohol intake, smoking habits, body mass index or family history, all of which are potential confounding factors in this study. Second, old age, hypertension, diabetes and previous HF are well‐known comorbidities strongly correlated with new‐onset AF. Therefore, we adjusted for these comorbidities to minimize the influence of AHF or IHD on 3‐month mortality. Third, living in a metropolitan area or being treated with azithromycin for a refractory or complicated type of scrub typhus infection also might induce treatment bias. Fourth, the cohort data were selected according to ICD codes, which may potentially have misclassification bias. Fifth, there was no control group of patients without scrub typhus infection. Therefore, our results might not be fully generalizable, and a prospective, randomized controlled trial should be conducted to overcome these limitations.

5. CONCLUSION

New‐onset AF was significantly associated with 3‐month mortality and concurrent cardiac adverse outcomes. Therefore, new‐onset AF may be a poor prognostic factor for 3‐month mortality and adverse cardiac complications in scrub typhus infection. Further investigation is warranted to prospectively validate these results.

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

The authors declare no potential conflict of interests.

AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS

K.W. K. contributed to the study design, interpretation of the analyzed data, and revised final manuscript. S.Y. J. collected and analyzed the data. J. H. K., B. K., J. Y. C., S. H. P., Y. J. C., K.T. J., and S.K. L. interpreted the data and drafted the manuscript.

ETHICS STATEMENT

This study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Eulji University (EMC 2017‐10‐006) and adhered to the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This study was supported by a grant from the Korean Healthcare Technology R&D project, which is funded by the Ministry of Health & Welfare (2017R1D1A3B03030919). This study is also based on data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service (research administration number, NHIS‐2018‐1‐011), and the results of the study are not related to the National Health Insurance Service.

Jang S‐Y, Kang K‐W, Kim JH, et al. New‐onset atrial fibrillation predicting for complicating cardiac adverse outcome in scrub typhus infection. Clin Cardiol. 2019;42:1210–1221. 10.1002/clc.23276

Funding information Korean Healthcare Technology R&D project, Grant/Award Number: (2017R1D1A3B03030919).

Suk‐Yong Jang and Ki‐Woon Kang contributed equally to this study.

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