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Canadian Journal of Public Health = Revue Canadienne de Santé Publique logoLink to Canadian Journal of Public Health = Revue Canadienne de Santé Publique
. 2007 Mar 1;98(2):121–124. doi: 10.1007/BF03404322

Physical Activity, Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Body Mass Index as Predictors of Substantial Weight Gain and Obesity

The Canadian Physical Activity Longitudinal Study

Susan E Brien 19, Peter T Katzmarzyk 19,29,, Cora L Craig 39, Lise Gauvin 49
PMCID: PMC6975694  PMID: 17441535

Abstract

Background

Obesity is a growing health issue in Canada and the identification of the determinants of obesity is important for the development of prevention strategies. The purpose of this investigation was to determine the relationships between physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness, body mass index (BMI), and the development of future obesity.

Methods

The sample included 459 adults (18+ y; 223 men, 236 women) from the Canadian Physical Activity Longitudinal Study (PALS; 2002–04). Data on physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, BMI, and cardiorespiratory fitness (VO2max) were collected in 1981 and 1988. The mean BMI, physical activity, and VO2max were calculated across the 1981 and 1988 measures. Self-reported height and weight were collected in the 2002–04 survey, and participants were classified as overweight (BMI 25 to 29.9 kg/m2) or obese (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). Logistic regression was used to predict overweight, obesity or substantial weight gain (10 kg or more) in 2002–04, controlling for age, sex, smoking and alcohol use.

Results

Higher VO2max in 1981–88 was associated with lower odds of obesity in 2002–04 (OR=0.87; 95% CI: 0.76–0.99, p<0.05), and higher BMI in 1981–88 was associated with higher odds of obesity in 2002–04 (1.84; 1.52–2.20, p<0.0001). In women, higher VO2max(0.82; 0.72–0.93) resulted in lower odds of a 10 kg weight gain.

Conclusions

The results indicate that cardiorespiratory fitness and previous BMI are important predictors of future weight gain and obesity, and should be incorporated in strategies to identify individuals at increased risk of obesity.

MeSH terms: Obesity, weight gain, body mass index, physical fitness, longitudinal survey

Footnotes

Acknowledgement of funding: Funded by a grant from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (Strategic Joint Initiative Grant on Society, Culture and the Health of Canadians II Grant No. 839-2000-1032). The 1981 Canada Fitness Survey was supported by Fitness and Amateur Sport (now the Physical Activity Unit of Health Canada) and the 1988 Campbell’s Survey on Well Being was funded by Fitness and Amateur Sport, the National Health Research and Development Program of Health Canada (Grant No. 6606-3217-46), and the Campbell Soup Company Ltd. S.E.B. is funded by a post-doctoral fellowship from the Canadian Heart Health Surveys Follow-up Study, which is funded through a New Emerging Team grant from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada.

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