Skip to main content
Springer Nature - PMC COVID-19 Collection logoLink to Springer Nature - PMC COVID-19 Collection
. 2011 May 7;33(3):751–786. doi: 10.1007/s00291-011-0249-0

A predictive decision-aid methodology for dynamic mitigation of influenza pandemics

Andrés Uribe-Sánchez 1, Alex Savachkin 1,, Alfredo Santana 1, Diana Prieto-Santa 1, Tapas K Das 1
PMCID: PMC7080196  PMID: 32214571

Abstract

In a recent report, the Institute of Medicine has stressed the need for dynamic mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza. In response to the need, we have developed a simulation-based optimization methodology for generating dynamic predictive mitigation strategies for pandemic outbreaks affecting several regions. Our methodology can accommodate varying virus and population dynamics. It progressively allocates a limited budget to procure vaccines and antivirals, capacities for their administration, and resources required to enforce social distancing. The methodology uses measures of morbidity, mortality, and social distancing, which are translated into the costs of lost productivity and medical services. The simulation model was calibrated using historic pandemic data. We illustrate the use of our methodology on a mock outbreak involving over four million people residing in four major population centers in Florida, USA. A sensitivity analysis is presented to estimate the impact of changes in the budget availability and variability of some of the critical parameters of mitigation strategies. The methodology is intended to assist public health policy makers.

Keywords: Pandemic influenza, Mitigation, Dynamic, Vaccination, Antiviral, Social distancing

References

  1. Arino J, Brauer F, den Driessche P, Watmough J, Wu J. Simple models for containment of a pandemic. J R Soc Interface. 2006;3:453–457. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2006.0112. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  2. Atkinson M, Wein L. Quantifying the routes of transmission for pandemic influenza. Bull Math Biol. 2008;70(3):820–867. doi: 10.1007/s11538-007-9281-2. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  3. Aunins J, Lee A, Volkin D. Vaccine production. 2. Boca Raton: CRC Press LLC; 2000. [Google Scholar]
  4. Ball F, Lyne O. Optimal vaccination policies for stochastic epidemics among a population of households. Math Biosci. 2002;177–178:333–354. doi: 10.1016/S0025-5564(01)00095-5. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  5. Blendon R, DesRoches C, Cetron M, Benson J, Meinhardt T, Pollard W. Attitudes toward the use of quarantine in a public health emergency in four countries. Health Aff. 2006;25(2):15–25. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.25.w15. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  6. Blendon R, Koonin L, Benson J, Cetron M, Pollard W, Mitchell E, Weldon K, Herrmann M. Public response to community mitigation measures for pandemic influenza. Emerg Infect Dis. 2008;14(5):778. doi: 10.3201/eid1405.071437. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  7. Bootsma M, Ferguson N. The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in the US cities. PNAS. 2007;104(18):7588–7593. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0611071104. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  8. Brundage J, Shanks G. Deaths from bacterial pneumonia during 1918–19 influenza pandemic. Emerg Infect Dis. 2008;14(8):1193. doi: 10.3201/eid1408.071313. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  9. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (2002) 2001 National household travel survey (NTHS). http://www.bts.gov/programs/national_household_travel_survey/. Last accessed on 12/09/2008
  10. Carrat F, Lavenu A, Cauchemez S, Deleguer S. Repeated influenza vaccination of healthy children and adults: borrow now, pay later? Epidemiol Infect. 2005;134:63–70. doi: 10.1017/S0950268805005479. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  11. Cauchemez S, Carrat F, Viboud C, Valleron A, Boelle P. A Bayesian (MCMC) approach to study transmission of influenza: application to household longitudinal data. Stat Med. 2004;23:3469–3487. doi: 10.1002/sim.1912. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  12. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (2006) CDC influenza operational plan. http://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic/cdcplan.htm. Last accessed on 03/27/2009
  13. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (2007a) Preparing for pandemic influenza. http://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic/preparedness.htm. Last accessed on 04/27/2009
  14. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (2007b) Interim pre-pandemic planning guidance: community strategy for pandemic influenza mitigation in the United States. http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/community/community_mitigation.pdf. Last accessed on 04/01/2009
  15. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (2008) Avian influenza: current H5N1 situation. http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/current.htm#clusters. Last accessed on 02/09/2008
  16. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2009) CDC vaccine price list. http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/programs/vfc/cdc-vac-price-list.htm#flu. Last accessed on 12/28/2009
  17. Colorado Department of Human Services Division of Mental Health (2009) Pandemic influenza: quarantine, isolation and social distancing. http://www.flu.gov/news/colorado_toolbox.pdf. Last accessed on 10/28/2009
  18. Colizza V, Barrat A, Barthelemy M, Vespignani A. The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics. PNAS. 2006;103:2015–2020. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0510525103. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  19. Colizza V, Barrat A, Barthelemy AVM, Vespignani A. Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic influenza: baseline case and containment interventions. PLOS Med. 2007;4:95–110. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  20. Committee on Modeling Community Containment for Pandemic Influenza (2006) Modeling community containment for pandemic influenza: a letter report. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11800.html. Last accessed on 12/09/2008
  21. Cooley P, Ganapathi L, Ghneim G, Holmberg S, Wheaton W, Hollingsworth C. Using influenza-like illness data to reconstruct an influenza outbreak. Math Comput Model. 2008;48:929–939. doi: 10.1016/j.mcm.2007.11.016. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  22. Cummings K, Jette A, Brock B, Haefner D. Psychosocial determinants of immunization behavior in a swine influenza campaign. Med Care. 1979;17(6):639–649. doi: 10.1097/00005650-197906000-00008. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  23. Dargatz C, Georgescu V, Held L. Stochastic modelling of the spatial spread of influenza in Germany. Austrian J Stat. 2006;35(1):5–20. [Google Scholar]
  24. Das T, Savachkin A. A large scale simulation model for assessment of societal risk and development of dynamic mitigation strategies. IIE Trans. 2008;40(9):893–905. doi: 10.1080/07408170802165856. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  25. Diekmann O, Heesterbeek J. Mathematical epidemiology of infectious diseases: model building, analysis and interpretation. Chichester: Wiley; 2000. [Google Scholar]
  26. Eclipse F (2009) The spatio-temporal epidemiological modeler. http://www.eclipse.org/stem/intro.php. Last accessed on 11/06/2009
  27. Epstein J, Goedecke D, Yu F, Morris R, Wagener D, Bobashev G. Controlling pandemic flu: the value of international air travel restrictions. PLoS One. 2007;2(5):1–11. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0000401. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  28. Epstein J, Parker J, Cummings D, Hammond R. Coupled contagion dynamics of fear and disease: mathematical and computational explorations. PLoS One. 2008;3(12):e3955. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0003955. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  29. Eubank S, Guclu H, Kumar V, Marathe M, Srinivasan A, Toroczkai Z, Wang N. Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks. Nature. 2004;429:180–184. doi: 10.1038/nature02541. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  30. Fedson D, Hant S. Pandemic influenza and the global vaccine supply. Clin Infect Dis. 2003;36:1552–1561. doi: 10.1086/375056. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  31. Ferguson N, Mallett S, Jackson H, Roberts N, Ward P. A population-dynamic model for evaluating the potential spread of drug-resistant influenza virus infections during community-based use of antivirals. J Antimicrob Chemother. 2003;51:977–990. doi: 10.1093/jac/dkg136. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  32. Ferguson NM, Cummings D, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Aronrag M, Lamsirithaworn S, Burke D. Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature. 2005;437:209–214. doi: 10.1038/nature04017. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  33. Ferguson N, Cummings DA, Fraser C, Cajka J, Cooley PCC, Burke DS. Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature. 2006;442(27):448–452. doi: 10.1038/nature04795. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  34. Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson R, Ferguson N, May R. Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. PNAS. 2004;101(16):6146–6151. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0307506101. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  35. Germann T, Kadau K, Longini IM, Macken C. Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. PNAS. 2006;103:5935–5940. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0601266103. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  36. Glass R, Beyeler W, Min H. Targeted social distancing design for pandemic influenza. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006;12(11):1671–1681. doi: 10.3201/eid1211.060255. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  37. Halder N, Kelso J, Milne G. Analysis of the effectiveness of interventions used during the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic. BioMed Central. 2010;10(168):1–14. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-10-168. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  38. Halfhill T (2009) Inflation calculator. http://www.halfhill.com/inflatation.html. Last accessed on 12/04/2009
  39. Halloran M. Invited commentary: challenges of using contact data to understand acute respiratory disease transmission. Am J Epidemiol. 2006;164(10):945. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwj318. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  40. Halloran ME, Longini IM, Nizam A, Yang Y. Containing bioterrorist smallpox. Science. 2002;298:1428–1432. doi: 10.1126/science.1074674. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  41. Halloran ME, Ferguson NM, Eubank S, Longini I. Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States. PNAS. 2008;105(12):4639–4644. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0706849105. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  42. Handel A, Longini I, Antia R. Towards a quantitative understanding of the within-host dynamics of influenza A infections. Epidemics. 2009;1(3):185–195. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2009.09.001. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  43. HHS (2007) Pandemic planning update iv. http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/panflureport4.html
  44. Institute of Medicine (IOM) (2008) Antivirals for pandemic influenza: guidance on developing a distribution and dispensing program. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC [PubMed]
  45. Jacksonville Aviation Authority: daily traffic volume data (2010) http://www.jaa.aero/General/Default.aspx. Last accessed on 04/07/2010
  46. Keane M, Walter M, Patel B, Moorthy S, Stevens R, Bradley K, Buford J, Anderson E, Anderson L, Tibbals K. Confidence in vaccination: a parent model. Vaccine. 2005;23(19):2486–2493. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2004.10.026. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  47. Kelso J, Milne G, Kelly H. Simulation suggests that rapid activation of social distancing can arrest epidemic development due to a novel strain of influenza. BMC Public Health. 2009;9(1):1–10. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-9-117. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  48. Larson R. Simple models of influenza progression within a heterogeneous population. Oper Res. 2007;55(399–412):165–195. [Google Scholar]
  49. Lawless J, Lawless J. Statistical models and methods for lifetime data. New York: Wiley; 1982. [Google Scholar]
  50. Lipsitch M, Cohen T, Murray M, Levin B. Antiviral resistance and the control of pandemic influenza. PLoS Med. 2007;4(1):111–115. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0040015. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  51. Longini IM. The generalized discrete-time epidemic model with immunity: a synthesis. Math Biosci. 1986;82:19–41. doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(86)90003-9. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  52. Longini IM, Koopman JS. Household and community transmission parameters from final distributions of infections in households. Biometrics. 1982;38:115–126. doi: 10.2307/2530294. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  53. Longini IM, Halloran ME, Nizam A, Yang Y. Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. Am J Epidemiol. 2004;159(7):623–633. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwh092. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  54. Longini IM, Nizam A, Shufu X, Ungchusak K, Hanshaoworakul W, Cummings D, Halloran ME. Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science. 2005;309:1083–1087. doi: 10.1126/science.1115717. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  55. Maunder R, Hunter J, Vincent L, Bennett J, Peladeau N, Leszcz M, Sadavoy J, Verhaeghe L, Steinberg R, Mazzulli T. The immediate psychological and occupational impact of the 2003 SARS outbreak in a teaching hospital. Can Med Assoc J. 2003;168(10):1245–1251. [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  56. Meltzer M, Cox N, Fukuda K. The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: priorities for intervention. Emerg Infect Dis. 1999;5(5):659–671. doi: 10.3201/eid0505.990507. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  57. Miami International Airport: daily traffic volume data (2010) http://www.miami-airport.com. Last accessed on 04/07/2010
  58. Mills C, Robins J, Lipsitch M. Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature. 2004;432:904–906. doi: 10.1038/nature03063. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  59. Milne G, Kelso J, Kelly H, Huband S, McVernon J. A small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: comparison of school closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic. PLoS One. 2008;3(12):1–7. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0004005. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  60. Niederhauser V, Baruffi G, Heck R. Parental decision-making for the varicella vaccine. J Pediatr Health Care. 2001;15(5):236–243. doi: 10.1067/mph.2001.114848. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  61. Nigmatulina KR, Larson RC. Living with influenza: impacts of government imposed and voluntarily selected interventions. Eur J Oper Res. 2009;195(6/1):613–627. doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2008.02.016. [DOI] [Google Scholar]
  62. Ortutay B (2010) How thermal-imaging cameras spot flu fevers. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30523865/. Last accessed on 03/19/2010
  63. Pasteur S (2009) Influenza A(H1N1) 2009 monovalent vaccine. http://www.fda.gov/downloads/biologicsbloodvaccines/vaccines/approvedproducts/ucm182404.pfd. Last accessed on 11/18/2009
  64. Patel R, Longini I, Halloran M. Finding optimal vaccination strategies for pandemic influenza using genetic algorithms. J Theor Biol. 2005;234:201–212. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2004.11.032. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  65. PayScale (2009) Job: registered nurse (rn). http://www.payscale.com/rcsearch.aspx?country=US&str=Registered+Nurse+. Last accessed on 12/28/2009
  66. Pearson M, Bridges C, Harper S (2006) Influenza vaccination of health-care personnel. Recommendations of the Healthcare Infection Control Practices Advisory Committee (HICPAC) and the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) [Internet]. Last accessed on 10/28/2009 [PubMed]
  67. PharmacyChecker.com (2009) Pricing & ordering comparisons. http://www.pharmacychecker.com/Pricing.asp?DrugId=36260&DrugStrengthId=61300&sortby=Price. Last accessed on 12/28/2009
  68. Pitzer V, Olsen S, Bergstrom C, Dowell S, Lipsitch M. Little evidence for genetic susceptibility to influenza A (H5N1) from family clustering data. Emerg Infect Dis. 2007;13(7):1074–1076. doi: 10.3201/eid1307.061538. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  69. Pitzer V, Leung G, Lipsitch M. Estimating variability in the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome to household contacts in Hong Kong, China. Am J Epidemiol. 2007;166(3):355–359. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwm082. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  70. Pourbohloul B, Ahued A, Davoudi B, Meza R, Meyers L, Skowronski D, Villaseñor I, Galván F, Cravioto P, Earn D, et al. Initial human transmission dynamics of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in North America. Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2009;3(5):215–222. doi: 10.1111/j.1750-2659.2009.00100.x. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  71. Rhodes S, Hergenrather K. Exploring hepatitis B vaccination acceptance among young men who have sex with men: facilitators and barriers. Prevent Med. 2002;35(2):128–134. doi: 10.1006/pmed.2002.1047. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  72. Robertson E, Hershenfield K, Grace S, Stewart D. The psychosocial effects of being quarantined following exposure to SARS: a qualitative study of Toronto health care workers. Can J Psychiatry. 2004;49:403–407. doi: 10.1177/070674370404900612. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  73. Rosenthal S, Kottenhahn R, Biro F, Succop P. Hepatitis B vaccine acceptance among adolescents and their parents. J Adolesc Health. 1995;17(4):248–255. doi: 10.1016/1054-139X(95)00164-N. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  74. Sadique M, Edmunds W, Smith R, Meerding W, de Zwart O, Brug J, Beutels P. Precautionary behavior in response to perceived threat of pandemic influenza. Emerg Infect Dis. 2007;13(9):1307. doi: 10.3201/eid1309.070372. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  75. Safranek T, Lawrence D, Kuriand L, Culver D, Wiederholt W, Hayner N, Osterholm M, O’Brien P, Hughes J. Reassessment of the association between Guillain-Barré syndrome and receipt of swine influenza vaccine in 1976–1977: results of a two-state study. Am J Epidemiol. 1991;133(9):940. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a115973. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  76. Savachkin A, Uribe-Sánchez A, Das T, Prieto D, Santana A, Martinez D (2010a) Supplemental data and model parameter values for cross-regional simulation-based optimization testbed. http://imse.eng.usf.edu/pandemic/supplement.pdf. Last accessed on 04/15/2010
  77. Savachkin A, Uribe A, Das T, Prieto D (2010b) Developing dynamic predictive strategies for mitigation of cross-regional pandemic outbreaks. IIE Trans (in review)
  78. Scharfstein D, Halloran M, Chu H, Daniels M. On estimation of vaccine efficacy using validation samples with selection bias. Biostatistics. 2006;7(4):615. doi: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxj031. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  79. Schoenstadt A (2009) Spanish flu. http://flu.emedtv.com/spanish-flu/spanish-flu.html. Last accessed on 12/15/2009
  80. Smailbegovic M, Laing G, Bedford H. Why do parents decide against immunization? The effect of health beliefs and health professionals. Child Care Health Dev. 2003;29(4):303. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2214.2003.00347.x. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  81. Svensson A. A note on generation times in epidemic models. Math Biosci. 2007;208(1):300–311. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2006.10.010. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  82. Treanor J, Campbell J, Zangwill K, Rowe T, Wolff M. Safety and immunogenicity of an inactivated subvirion influenza A(H5N1) vaccine. N Engl J Med. 2006;3554(13):1343. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa055778. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  83. Tallahassee Regional Airport: daily traffic volume data (2010) http://www.talgov.com/airport/index.cfm. Last accessed on 04/07/2010
  84. Tampa International Airport: daily traffic volume data (2010) http://www.tampaairport.com. Last accessed on 04/07/2010
  85. Tang Y, Longini I, Halloran M. Design and evaluation of prophylactic interventions using disease incidence data from close contact groups. Appl Stat. 2006;55(3):317–330. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2006.00539.x. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  86. The New Yorker (2009) The fear factor. http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2009/10/12/091012taco_talk_specter. Last accessed on 10/28/2009
  87. The New York Times (2009) Doctors swamped by swine flu vaccine fears. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33179695/ns/health-swine_flu/. Last accessed on 10/28/2009
  88. Uribe A, Prieto D, Savachkin A, Das T, Zhu Y (2008) A cross-regional pandemic outbreak simulation model: an aid to national resource allocation policy making. In: Proceedings of the 3rd INFORMS workshop on data mining and health informatics (DM-DI 2008)
  89. US Census Bureau (2000) 2001 American community survey. http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/statab/sec01.pdf. Last accessed on 03/27/2009
  90. US Department of Health & Human Services (2007) HHS pandemic influenza plan. http://www.hhs.gov/pandemicflu/plan/. Last accessed on 03/27/2009
  91. WHO Global Influenza Programme (2009) Pandemic influenza preparedness and response. Tech. Rep. World Health Organization
  92. World Health Organization (WHO) (2004) WHO guidelines on the use of vaccine and antivirals during influenza pandemics. http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/influenza/11_29_01_A.pdf. Retrieved 03/27/2009
  93. World Health Organization (2009) Pandemic (h1n1) 2009 vaccine deployment update, 17 December 2009. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/vaccines/h1n1_vaccination_deployment_update_20091217.pdf
  94. World Health Organization (WHO) (2010a) Cumulative number of confirmed human cases of Avian Influenza A(H5N1) reported to WHO. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2010_07_05/en/index.html
  95. World Health Organization (2010b) Pandemic (H1N1) 2009—update 107. http://www.who.int/csr/don/2010_07_02/en/index.html. Last accessed on 07/08/2010
  96. Writing Committee of the World Health Organization (WHO) Consultation on human influenza A/H5. Avian influenza A(H5N1) infection in humans. N Engl J Med. 2005;353(13):1374–1385. doi: 10.1056/NEJMra052211. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  97. Wu JT, Riley S, Fraser C, Leung G. Spatial considerations for the allocation of pre-pandemic influenza vaccination in the United States. Proc R Soc Biol Sci. 2006;274(1627):2811–2817. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2007.0893. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  98. Wu JT, Riley S, Fraser C, Leung G. Reducing the impact of the next influenza pandemic using household-based public health interventions. PLoS Med. 2006;3(9):1532–1540. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0030361. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  99. Yang Y, Sugimoto J, Halloran M, Basta N, Chao D, Matrajt L, Potter G, Kenah E, Longini I., Jr The transmissibility and control of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus. Science. 2009;326(5953):729–733. doi: 10.1126/science.1177373. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  100. Yang Y, Halloran M, Longini I., Jr A Bayesian model for evaluating influenza antiviral efficacy in household studies with asymptomatic infections. Biostatistics. 2009;10(2):390. doi: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxn045. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  101. Yang Y, Halloran M, Sugimoto J, Longini I., Jr Detecting human-to-human transmission of avian influenza A (H5N1) Emerg Infect Dis. 2007;13(9):1348–1353. doi: 10.3201/eid1309.07-0111. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
  102. Yasuda H, Suzuki K. Measures against transmission of pandemic H1N1 influenza in Japan in 2009: simulation model. Eur Commun Dis Bull [Euro surveillance: bulletin européen sur les maladies transmissibles] 2009;14(44):1–7. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]

Articles from Or Spectrum are provided here courtesy of Nature Publishing Group

RESOURCES