Exploring the epidemic transmission network of SARS in-out flow in mainland China

Abstract

The changing spatiotemporal patterns of the individual susceptible-infected-symptomatic-treated-recovered epidemic process and the interactions of information/material flows between regions, along with the 2002–2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemiological investigation data in mainland China, including three typical locations of individuals (working unit/home address, onset location and reporting unit), are used to define the in-out flow of the SARS epidemic spread. Moreover, the input/output transmission networks of the SARS epidemic are built according to the definition of in-out flow. The spatiotemporal distribution of the SARS in-out flow, spatial distribution and temporal change of node characteristic parameters, and the structural characteristics of the SARS transmission networks are comprehensively and systematically explored. The results show that (1) Beijing and Guangdong had the highest risk of self-spread and output cases, and prevention/control measures directed toward self-spread cases in Beijing should have focused on the later period of the SARS epidemic; (2) the SARS transmission networks in mainland China had significant clustering characteristics, with two clustering areas of output cases centered in Beijing and Guangdong; (3) Guangdong was the original source of the SARS epidemic, and while the infected cases of most other provinces occurred mainly during the early period, there was no significant spread to the surrounding provinces; in contrast, although the input/output interactions between Beijing and the other provinces countrywide began during the mid-late epidemic period, SARS in Beijing showed a significant capacity for spatial spreading; (4) Guangdong had a significant range of spatial spreading throughout the entire epidemic period, while Beijing and its surrounding provinces formed a separate, significant range of high-risk spreading during the mid-late period; especially in late period, the influence range of Beijing’s neighboring provinces, such as Hebei, was even slightly larger than that of Beijing; and (5) the input network had a low-intensity spread capacity and middle-level influence range, while the output network had an extensive high-intensity spread capacity and influence range that covered almost the entire country, and this spread and influence indicated that significant clustering characteristics increased gradually. This analysis of the epidemic in-out flow and its corresponding transmission network helps reveal the potential spatiotemporal characteristics and evolvement mechanism of the SARS epidemic and provides more effective theoretical support for prevention and control measures.