Abstract
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan has aroused widespread concern and attention from all over the world. Many articles have predicted the development of the epidemic. Most of them only use very basic SEIR model without considering the real situation. In this paper, we build a model called e-ISHR model based on SEIR model. Then we add hospital system and time delay system into the original model to simulate the spread of COVID-19 better. Besides, in order to take the government’s control and people’s awareness into consideration, we change our e-ISHR model into a 3-staged model which effectively shows the impact of these factors on the spread of the disease. By using this e-ISHR model, we fit and predict the number of confirmed cases in Wuhan and China except Hubei. We also change some of parameters in our model. The results indicate the importance of isolation and increasing the number of beds in hospital.
Key words: coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); epidemic prediction, 3-staged model; hospital system; government’s control
Nomenclature
- E
The number of exposed individuals
- H
The number of individuals isolated or cured in hospital
- I
The number of individuals in incubation period
- k
Proportion of healthy people in the population
- Ncon
The number of confirmed cases
- Nhom
The number of individuals isolated or cured at home
- Nhos
The number of hospital beds
- R
The number of recovered individuals
- S
The number of individuals in symptomatic period
- t
Outbreak duration
- tdie
Average death time of virus carries
- tinc
Average time of incubation period
- trec
Average recovery time of virus carries
- ttoH
Average to hospital time of virus carries in symptomatic period
- α
Probability of getting infectious after having contact with a virus carrier
- βhom
The number of people contacted by a virus carrier in symptomatic period each day
- βinc
The number of people contacted by a virus carrier isolated or cured at home each day
- βsym
The number of people contacted by a virus carrier in incubation period each day
- γhom
Death rate in hospital
- γhos
Death rate at home
- δ
Proportion of naturally carrying antibodies in the population
Footnotes
Foundation item: the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2018YFB1004700), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 61872238 and 61972254), the Shanghai Science and Technology Fund (No. 17510740200), and the CCFHuawei Database System Innovation Research Plan (No. CCF-Huawei DBIR2019002A)
These authors contributed equally to this work.
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