Responding to Crisis – The Destination Perspective

Preparing for future crises by reducing the risks

Introduction

Crisis and disaster are humanities’ fellow time travellers often colliding, sometimes interrupting but never halting the journey of progress. The fear of disaster constantly stalks the individual as it does society. As individuals we fear, at least in times of quite reflection or periods of impending disaster, the disruption that loss of possessions, personal injury or death of loved ones will cause. The literature and media have found in this innate fear a rich playground of themes, images and storylines for movies, poetry, songs and writing. Rarely can we turn on the television and not see murder, medical emergency or personal catharsis. As individuals we fear disaster yet disaster lies at the heart of the human experience, visiting in the form of death, injury and in a multitude of other guises. Yet rather than succumbing to its fears humanity constantly rises to the challenge and progresses forward. On a destination level crises and disasters are part of the fabric of the norm, not something that can be gazed upon from afar. Responding to the challenge of crisis is a key to ensuring long-term economic sustainability and is the subject of the discussion in this chapter.

In recent years crises have affected tourism destinations on every continent. Each crisis is unique but at its core there are three distinct time periods: the period prior to the crisis, the period of the crisis and the period after the crisis. How destinations respond to each period of a crisis situation will vary depending on their level of preparedness, the severity of the crisis and the time period that the crisis occupies. It is becoming increasingly clear that while the actions undertaken in the post-crisis period will determine how a destination recovers it is the policies that are implemented in the pre-crisis stage that will ultimately determine the rate of recovery of the destination. This chapter will examine a range of issues that are related to crisis response by the private and public sectors in the destination context. The following scenario of a cyclone striking a Pacific island destination is based on actual events and illustrates the three broad time periods/stages of a crisis. The case study is used to highlight aspects of the discussion later in this chapter.

Case Study 5.1 A Crisis Scenario: Struck by Cyclone.

Immediate Pre-Crisis Stage

Setting:A small independent developing island state located in the Pacific Ocean. The island is remote, tourism-dependent and suffers from high levels of unemployment.

Time: 0200 h, Day 1

The weather forecast shows the impending arrival of severe tropical Cyclone Tribulation with wind speeds of up to 240 km/h. The system is expected to cross the coast near the nation's primary concentration of coastal tourism resorts sometime in the next 20 h. Because it is peak tourist season resort properties are running at near full capacity and there are an estimated 2000 guests on the path of the cyclone. The forecast indicates that the cyclone is likely to cross the coast at high tide creating a severe storm surge and that the heavy rains preceding the cyclone will cause major flooding in all the coastal areas. Further flooding is expected to close the island's international airport in 6–10 h.

Crisis Stage

Time: 1400 h, Day 1

The airport has closed and coastal flooding has prevented the evacuation of most tourists in the coastal resort centres. Roads that remain open are jammed with anxious locals seeking to flee the cyclone in an uncontrolled and unplanned exodus. The Head of the newly established National Disaster Commission, a retired politician, drowned when his vehicle was washed off the main highway while travelling in the coastal area to make an on the spot assessment. Local police have failed to establish an operational command/control and communications structure to deal with the situation and no attempt has been made to rescue the remaining tourists.

Time: 0200 h, Day 2

Severe Tropical Cyclone Tribulation passed through the nation's major resort region destroying or heavily damaging most properties. Several hundred tourists and locals are feared to have drowned trying to escape the tidal surge that preceded the cyclone. The international airport will remain closed for up to a week because of damage to the air traffic control system and the nation's major hospital was destroyed by the cyclone. An operational command/control and communications structure has yet to be established.

Post-Crisis Stage

Time: 1400 h Friday Day 10

With the assistance of foreign military forces, all surviving international tourists have been evacuated and most of the dead identified. The nation's tourism infrastructure is devastated and even with extensive foreign aid it will not be functioning for at least 18 months. International media reports have been highly critical of the failure of the government to prevent such a large loss of life. The nation's government and tourism industry leaders meet to consider how to repair the damage caused to the tourism industry and in what form marketing should occur in the interim period. No post-crisis media recovery response has been put in place.

Time: 1400 h Day 30

Lessons Learnt

An analysis of the nation's crisis response mechanisms found a number of serious deficiencies including:

• •Pre-crisis planning was ineffective
• •A resilient command/control and communications structure able to deal with the death or injury of key personnel had not been established in the period prior to the crisis
• •Evacuation routes had not been established and the movement of refugees away from the coast was not controlled. Most deaths can be attributed to the failure to develop and control escape routes.
• •Backup arrangements had not been developed to maintain operations at the airport
• •A post-disaster recovery plan had not been developed
• •Media planning had been deficient
• •Tourism has ceased with the only income from visitors now being generated by foreign military and aid workers assisting in post-crisis recovery and reconstruction

The Impact of Crises on Tourism

Successfully dealing with crisis events is crucial to the long-term viability of the tourism industry. In the example outlined above, as has been the case in many of the more recent crises that have affected national tourism industries and individual destinations, there had been inadequate pre-planning which resulted in significant loss of life and extensive damage to infrastructure. In some crisis situations such as the 2004 Tsunami in Asia it was inevitable that lives would be lost given the scale of the event and its level of unpredictability. However, the impact of crisis events may be substantially reduced if effective planning is in place. If warning systems had been developed in the pre-crisis period and plans made for evacuation of coastal areas the death toll from the 2004 Tsunami may have been substantially lower. In many crises a significant loss of life will become a major factor inhibiting successful post-crisis recovery. The following discussion examines aspects of crisis as it pertains to tourism destinations.

Until recently, tourism crisis planning has not been regarded as a priority although following a large number of crises that have affected destinations in recent decades this situation is beginning to change (Prideaux and Lawes, 2007). The impact of crisis events on the tourism industry depends on a range of factors including the scale of the event, its cost, funding for recovery, the ability of victims to recover and the length of the recovery/rebuilding phase. One tangible impact on tourism flows is a reduction in visitor numbers. In events such as the 2004 Tsunami rapid rebuilding and effective post disaster rebuilding in the Thai destination of Phuket resulted in a speedy recovery in visitor numbers. However, in other forms of crisis the impact may be different.

When the first draft of this chapter was written in May 2007 large parts of the global economy had enjoyed over a decade of continuous growth and economic forecasters were predicted continuing economic prosperity based on the resources boom generated by the rapid growth of the Chinese and more recently the Indian economy as well as strong consumer demand in many countries. There were also early signs that a global financial crisis was possible, a consequence of poor home lending practices in the United States. Climate change was emerging as an issue and there were growing concerns aboutpeak oiland the possibility of a global Avian Flu pandemic. Oil prices were seen as high reaching around $70 per barrel.

By July 2008, barely a year later, oil had risen to $145 a barrel and then fallen to US$ 120 per barrel, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Stock Index in the United States had fallen from a high of around 13,700 points in June 2007 to below 11,000 points in July 2008, a global credit crunch had emerged as a direct consequence of the US subprime home loan crisis and the United States appeared to be in a recession. As a result of the oil price spike many airlines cut back on services, retired older planes, cut staff, dramatically increased their fuel surcharges and predicted large falls in profits. In July 2007 even the pessimists were not predicting the magnitude of change that occurred in the period June 2007–July 2008. By the end of 2008 the US credit crunch had grown into the most serious global recession since the great depression of 1929.

The global financial crisis had a different set of impacts to those that emanate from crises that cause physical damage. The most significant impact on consumers in most countries was a substantial reduction in personal wealth as assert values of homes and shares declined. Many consumers respond by reducing spending in other areas including holiday travel. By the beginning of 2009, the global outlook for travel in 2009 looked uncertain. Destinations and firms that failed to recognize the dangers that a crisis of this nature could have on their business are at risk. A catalogue of major crises that have adversely affected destinations in recent years is outlined in Table 5.1 .

Table 5.1.

Examples of major Crises in the Period 2000–2008 from regional to Global Impacts

Date	Event	Area Affected	Impact on Tourism
February–September 2001	UK Foot and Mouth	The United Kingdom	National impact: to prevent the spread of the disease large parts of the countryside were effectively sealed and tourism in those areas creased. In Scotland the loss to the tourism industry was esteemed to be between 200 and 250 million pounds. (Hall, 2007)
11 September 2001	September 11	New York at first then global	Global impact: global disruptions to air travel in the short-term. In the long-term a dramatic increase in airport security levels leads to substantial increases in air travel costs (Litvin and Crotts, 2007)
November 2002–July 2003	Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)	Commenced in Peoples Republic of China and spread to Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada, Thailand and Taiwan	International impacts: a total of 774 deaths occurred (mortality rate of 9.6%). Fear of a Spanish Flu like pandemic resulted in the isolation of Hong Kong for a short period and severe disruptions to travel in the affected countries (Henderson, 2007)
12 October 2002 and 1 October 2005	Bali bombings	Bali as well as Indonesia	National impact: a steep decline in visitors after the first bombing of a night club by members of the Jemaah Islamiyah terrorist group. 202 persons were killed and 209 injured. A second terrorist attack by the same group in 2005 killed fewer people (23 including 3 terrorists) but reinforced a negative image about safety in Bali (Gurtner, 2007)
11 March 2004	Madrid Train bombing	Madrid	National impact: reduction in visitor numbers for a short period (Lawset al., 2007)
26 December 2004	Tsunami	The main countries affected were Indonesia (Sumatra), Thailand (Phuket), India, Sri Lanka	International impact: an estimated 230,000 causalities occurred around the Indian Ocean rim. There was significant damage to tourism infrastructure and an immediate downturn in tourism. By 2007 many of the affected regions had reported recovery to pre-Tsunami visitor levels (Gurtner, 2007)
29 August 2005	Hurricane Katrina	New Orleans and Louisiana	Regional impact: hurricane Katrina flooded about 80% of New Orleans, killed 1836 people and caused in excess of US$ 90 billion damage. Tourist were slow to return to New Orleans and by 2007 numbers had not returned to pre-Hurricane levels (Prideaux and Laws, 2007)
2008	Global oil price spike	Global	Increased price of transport, particularly air
2008–2009?	Global Financial Crisis	Global	At the time of writing the global financial crisis had spread worldwide

In the first decade of the 21st century there have been numerous crises and disasters that have had an impact on tourism. The new millennium commenced with global fears of a global economic melt down caused by the YK2 Bug (Prideaux, 1999a). Fortunately, early recognition of the problem resulted in enormous investment in upgrading computer networks to eliminate the problem. Later in the decade other crises affected the tourism industry including the 9/11 attack on the United States, the SARS emergency, The Madrid train bombing in Spain in 2004 (which killed 191 and wounding 2050 persons), extensive flooding in parts of Europe over a number of years in the decade and on a smaller scale, numerous aircraft crashes, ferry disasters, train crashes, night club fires, foot and mouth disease in the United Kingdom, forest fires in the United States and Europe and so on. It is also apparent that there are, in addition to these short sharp shocks to the tourism system, a number of lower profile but long running crises that are now beginning to or will shortly begin to impact on the global tourism industry. These include increasing oil prices and global climate change. Each of the crises referred to in Table 5.1 had an impact on the tourism industry in the regions they occurred in and many had much wider effects as the ripple of impact moved into surrounding regions, countries and even globally. Thus while the Bali bombings of 2002 and 2005 caused a serious decline in inbound tourism to Indonesia, the wider regional tourism industry did not suffer. At the other end of the scale the September 11 attack on the United States had both national and international impacts that continued to be felt years after the physical damage of the attack was cleared away.

As history so graphically tells us, if we take time to listen, disasters and crises are as much a part of the human condition as growth. Indeed, the rhythm of human history is one of the waves of growth and prosperity followed by decline and disaster which in turn is followed by a new phase of growth and prosperity. The 20th century is an excellent example of this pattern. Emerging from a depression in the late 1890s the world was embroiled in World War One (1914–1918), enjoyed prosperity in the early years of the 1920s, suffered depression from 1929 to the mid-1930s and endured a further World War between 1939 and 1945. Although overshadowed by the Cold War between 1946 and 1991 the global economy grew rapidly, decolonization gathered pace and globalization became a dominant theme in international affairs. Apart from a number of regional crises including the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, the Dot.com stock market crash of 2000–2001 and September 11, 2001 the world economy expanded rapidly until the emergence of the unexpected global financial crisis of 2008–2009. It is obvious that crises are as much a part of the life of destinations as growth and need to be understood by all stakeholders within the destination community. This chapter explores some of these issues as they pertain to destination planning and response to crisis.

Collectively, humanity has a wonderful ability to move beyond crises and rebuild on the ashes of past disaster. Out of the ruins of World War Two (1939–1945) both the victors and vanquished emerged stronger and wealthier and are now significant tourism generating and receiving regions. Later, the unanticipated collapse of the USSR in 1991 paved the way for the emergence of a stronger, wealthier Russian Federation. One significant growth of tourism is into and out of the nations that previously formed the Warsaw Pact group of nations during the Cold War era. Destinations also experience similar patterns of decline and rebirth (Butler, 1980; Prideaux, 2000aButler, 1980Prideaux, 2000a) but as with national economic growth, the process is not automatic and must be carefully managed by all sectors within the destination. In destinations where management of this nature is absent growth may falter or decline. In the wake of the 2004 Tsunami, Thailand was able to rebuild its tourism industry through collaboration between the public and private sectors and the international distribution chain. However, in Rabaul, a dive destination located in Papua New Guinea, the public and private sectors failed to manage the aftermath of the 1994 volcanic eruption that destroyed much of the town (see Figure 5.1 ) and by 2007 tourism was largely irrelevant as an economic sector despite the high quality of the former destination's marine resources.

Figure 5.1.

This photo taken in 2006 illustrates how a volcanic eruption buried much of the original town of Rabaul with volcanic ash in 1994. The haze in the centre of the photo was caused by volcanic fumes.

Source: Photo courtesy of Bruce Prideaux.

Crises are a common, if unwelcome, phenomenon and as such there is a need for crisis planning to be an integral part of destination management, marketing and forward planning (Prideaux 2003). To fail to acknowledge that crises are possible or even probable reduces a destination's ability to use the pre-crisis stage to prepare for possible crisis events and to respond rapidly and effectively by implementing long-term recovery planning based on infrastructure repair and/or enhancement and marketing. After briefly reviewing the growing research into destination crisis and recovery this chapter will examine strategies for disaster planning. Readers are referred to the literature for a more detailed discussion on crisis management in edited collections of case studies such as Lawset al.(2007), Laws and Prideaux (2005) and detailed assessment of crisis response by Beirman (2003) and Santana (2007). After a discussion on the possible impacts of future crises the chapter will conclude with several case studies that highlight aspects of how destinations have successfully responded to crises.

As the preceding discussion demonstrates, crises are as much a part of destination life as growth and need to be considered as a significant factor in management and development planning. Surprisingly, most of the tourism and destination planning literature fails to acknowledge the need for crisis planning although this is beginning to change as a brief survey of the literature will indicate. The first serious attempt to advocate the need for crisis planning can be traced back to Bill Faulkner who's often cited disaster model (Faulkner, 2001) has become a primary model for academic research into crisis planning within the tourism sector. The World Tourism Organization (WTO) (1996, 1998)WTO, 1996WTO, 1998 and PATA (Pacific Asia Tourism Association, 1991) were also amongst the early contributors to the development of tools that could be employed to assist the industry plan and cope with crises. The global impact of the September 11 attack created a great deal of interest in the need for crisis research reflected in a growing number of special issues (Journal of Tourism and Travel Marketing, 2005, 2007), books (Glaesser, 2003) and papers (see for example Prideaux et al., 2003; Blake and Sinclair 2003; Hall et al., 2003; McKercher, 1999Prideaux et al., 2003Blake and Sinclair, 2003Hall et al., 2003McKercher, 1999; Peters and Pikkemaat 2005; McKercher and Pine, 2005; Sonmezet al., 1999; Drabek, 1995; Barton, 1994; Gee and Gain 1986; Steene 1999; Huan et al., 2004Drabek, 1995Barton, 1994Gee and Gain, 1986Steene, 1999Huan et al., 2004; Mansfield, 1999; Faulkner, 2001; Faulkner and Vikulov, 2001; Pizam and Fleischer, 2002; Pizam et al., 1997; Ritchie, 2004Faulkner, 2001Faulkner and Vikulov, 2001Pizam and Fleischer, 2002Pizam et al., 1997Ritchie, 2004). Within the literature there are a growing number of case studies discussing the response of destinations to crises.

Understanding Crisis

The terms ‘crisis’ and ‘disaster’ are commonly used to describe a range of events that are created by an external shock and include national crisis, personal crisis, business crisis, political crisis, military crisis, marketing crisis and so on. In the following discussion all events that generate a shock to the tourism system are referred to as ‘crisis’ or ‘crises’. However, the use of the term ‘crisis’ in this manner lacks precision and in the context in which it is usually used has a utility quality where it may mean many things to many people. According to Santana (2003) the word crisis is derived from the Greek ‘Krisis’ which means a decision or turning point. Santana (2003) further observed that there is no accepted agreement on the causes of crisis. One group of scholars (Mitroff et al., 1992) view crises as normal accidents while other scholars see crises as the result of ‘wrong’ decisions. Despite the lack of precision it is apparent that the term is widely used to describe an incident or event that disrupts and it is in this broad context that the term is used in this discussion. In this context the term may be used to describe an event of any magnitude that disrupts the orderly operation of the tourism industry (Prideaux and Laws, 2006).

Crises can occur at any level of tourism operation ranging from individual businesses through to a destination, regional, national and in some cases global level. In destinations, a crisis is usually characterized by an event or sequence of events that result in falling visitor numbers. As arrivals fall the destination will experience a decline in employment paralleled by a decline in private sector profits. Further outcomes may include: a reduction in government revenue which in turn has implications for reinvestment in public sector infrastructure; falling business revenue which will force businesses to defer further investment and cause some businesses to fold; and loss of confidence in the destination by the travel distribution system. The origin of crisis events ranges from internal, as in the case of poor business practices within a firm, to external including natural disasters or political turmoil. Further, crises may be unanticipated or anticipated and be able to be mitigated by prior action (such as construction of higher sea walls) or at worst be totally uncontrollable as occurs when an earthquake strikes.

A large-scale crisis generates complex movements away from the previous business relationships within the destination leading to a shift away from stability and equilibrium to instability and disequilibrium for both firms and the destination. Equilibrium of the nature outlined in the Resort Development Spectrum (Prideaux, 2000a) in Chapter 2 is an essential element of destination stability and is a platform for continuing growth. A crisis may generate multiple events, the follow-on effects of which may prolong the period of disequilibrium unless a new equilibrium situation can be quickly achieved. Russell and Faulkner (1999) and Mc Kercher (1999) state that chaos theory is able to provide a paradigm for the investigation of changing complex situations where multiple influences impact on non-equilibrium systems. In situations of uncertainty of this nature, strategy development and destination management must be able to incorporate contingencies for the unexpected. The application of Chaos theory to crisis management in a tourism setting demonstrates that some elements of system behaviour are intrinsically unstable and as a consequence they are not amenable to formal forecasting. In a tourism setting, crises are often unpredictable and when they occur usually invalidate tourist forecasting. In circumstances of this nature a new approach to forecasting is required. One such approach based on scenarios was discussed in Chapter 3.

In his 2001 paper Faulkner synthesized research by Fink (1986:20), Keown-McMullan (1997:9) and Weiner and Kahn (1972:21) to identify a number of key factors that are related to crisis:

• •A triggering event that is of such magnitude that it challenges the existing structure, routine operations or survival of the organization. Trigger events may include economic decline, terrorism activity, political crises, religious or ethnic tensions, and more recently climate change;
• •Crisis is characterized by ‘fluid, unstable, dynamic’ situations (Fink, 1986:20);
• •A crisis will produce situations where there are a high threat level, short decision time and an element of surprise and urgency;
• •There is a perception of an inability to cope among those directly affected;
• •A turning point occurs where decisive change, which may have both positive and negative connotations, is imminent. Keown-McMullan (1997) observed that organizations and in the case here destinations, will undergo significant change even when a crisis situation is successfully managed.

From the previous discussion it is apparent that a clear understanding of the terminology used to describe many elements of crisis is desirable to reduce confusion and to build a base for further debate and planning particularly where there are multi-disciplinary issues involved. Prideaux and Laws (2005) developed a suggested set of definitions that can perform such a function and are outlined in Table 5.2 .

Table 5.2.

Suggested Definitions of Terms Associated with the Study of Crisis Events

Term	Meaning
Crisis	An unexpected problem seriously disrupting the functioning of an organization, sector or nation; a general term for such problems
Trends	Those sequences of events that can be identified in the present and which, unless remedial action is taken, will cause some magnitude of disruption in the future
Disaster	Unpredictable catastrophic change that can normally only be responded to after the event, either by deploying contingency plans already in place or through reactive response
Triggering event	The origin of a crisis. May be of human origin, the result of natural forces or a combination of the two
Crisis episode	The period during which the crisis occurs
Crisis pre-planning	Managerial planning to ensure the best possible responses to a crisis including training, role play, and the acquisition and storing of appropriate resources
Crisis management	Management strategies that commence with pre-crisis planning are activated to respond to the crisis as it unfolds and are implemented to recover from the crisis
Crisis reporting	A mechanism to facilitate learning from crisis episodes to further improve crisis pre-planning
Knowledge sharing	Organizational, industry or regional mechanisms to analyse and share knowledge with relevant individuals and bodies
Turning point	When decisive change, which may have both positive and negative connotations, is imminent
Crisis scenario	Scenario based planning that may lead to better responses during actual crises
Organizational learning	Organizations acquire new management strategies and systems to deal with crisis
Risk	The level of probability of an undesirable event or incident occurring
Event	A situation which may lead to crisis if not contained
Incident	Similar to even a situation which may lead to crisis if not contained
Trend	Sequences of events that can be identified in the present and which, unless remedial action is taken, will cause some magnitude of change (positive or negative) in the future
Crisis communications	The development and implementation of communications strategies: prior to a crisis; during a crisis; and in the post-crisis recovery period
Command, control and communications	A command structure that has the capacity to withstand loss of personal and equipment during a crisis but is resilient enough to continue exercising control through a command structure that has a comprehensive and hardened communications network
Shock	Refers to the event or events that caused the crisis to occur
Recovery	The process of repairing physical damage and restoring visitor flows to pre-crisis levels

Source: Modified from Prideaux and Laws (2005).

The impact of crisis events creates a shock which disrupts the flow of visitors between origins and destinations. Figure 5.2 builds on the push–pull model to illustrate the factors that disrupt flows between an origin and a destination and are classed as inhibiting factors and repellents. Competing factors such as other destinations and activities that may make calls on consumer's free time and savings may also affect the magnitude of the pull and rush factors that operate between destinations and generating regions. When flows between specific origin and destination pairs are interrupted because of a crisis, tourists are repelled from the specific destination and the pull factors operating in competing destinations may cause a substitution effect to occur. If the destination is to later regain its market share it will need to increase its pull power. This might occur through post-crisis marketing as an initial step and later by investing in new attractions and developing new markets.

Figure 5.2.

The impact of inhibiting factors, repellents and competing factors on destination – origin push–pull forces.

Source: After Laws (1995:22).

The form the crisis takes and how it impacts on policy formulation, investor response and consumer demand is important. Figure 5.3 illustrates how various types of responses can shape the course of destination development. Where recovery is rapid, growth resumes on its previous trajectory. Where recovery is slow, it takes time for the previous trajectory to be resumed. In the final trajectory recovery does not occur, as demonstrated by the decline of tourism in Rabaul (see Figure 5.1).

Figure 5.3.

Recovery trajectories after a crisis event.

Scales of Impact

The impacts of crises may be classed as direct, indirect and cumulative. The scales that these impacts occur on can be classified as:

• • size, measured in terms that include the extent of damage, the cost of damage, loss of historic places and ecosystems, and loss of visitors;
• • timetaken for recovery (defined as a return to pre-crisis visitor numbers) to occur;
• • geographic extentthe size of the area affected by the crisis event,
• • Level of recognition of danger.This scale refers to crises that are evident but have yet to impact on tourism flows.

Timecan be subdivided into specific periods including: short-term, medium-term and long-term. In the case of the Bali bombing of 2002 the impacts of the crisis may be examined in the short terms using a range of indicators including: number of people killed and injured, the cost of physical repairs to buildings, the cost of medical support for victims and the decline in visitor numbers. In the long-term, key indicators include the length of time taken for visitor numbers to return to pre-incident levels and changes in market share.

Figure 5.4 based on Prideaux and Laws (2007:385) illustrates one method of comparing the impact of multiple crises using two scales. The vertical scale measures impact on a geographic scale while the horizontal axis is a measure of business impact. Specific examples of recent crises are given.

Figure 5.4.

Scale estimation of crisis impact based on business impact and geographic reach.

Source: Adapted from Prideaux and Laws (2007:385)

While often ignored, time scales are critical indicators of success in restoring destinations to normality in the post-crisis period. Indicators of success include the restoration of company profits and government revenue. While destinations understand the need to react to a crisis event that has occurred there is often less recognition of the need to respond to emerging crises that may not begin to cause problems until some point in the future. In some circumstances destinations do not respond until a point is reached where urgent action becomes essential. Climate change has a scale of this nature. It has been apparent for some time that global weather patterns are changing and that probable consequences will include changes in sea levels, changes in the biosphere and changes in weather patterns (IPCC, 2007; Stern, 2006). While there is increasing recognition that change of this nature is beginning to occur inappropriate coastal development continues to be approved with little thought being given to the future impacts of rising sea levels. In the recent geological past sea levels have fluctuated extensively as demonstrated by the rise in sea levels during the most recent interglacial period, the Holocene epoch which commenced about 11,000 years ago. 2007.

From this perspective it is not inappropriate to consider medium-, long- and very long-term impacts of sea level fluctuations. The 2007 IPCC report on climate change indicated that contemporary best estimates of sea level rises over the remaining years of the 21st century range between 0.18 and 0.59 m but exclude future rapid dynamic changes to ice flows. These may lead to even greater increases if melting of the polar ice caps continues to increase. Rises of this nature will have significant impacts on coastal destinations and will be more extensively discussed in Chapter 10. In the worst case scenarios low lying coral atoll islands including the Maldives in the Indian Ocean and Kiribati in the Pacific Ocean will be submerged and the populations will be forced to migrate elsewhere.

The danger for the tourism industry of failing to incorporate probable changes in sea levels into coastal planning was demonstrated in part by the flooding that occurred in New Orleans during September 2005 when Hurricane Katrina breached sea walls and levees inundating large areas of the city. In that incident there were systemic problems that included a failure to maintain existing levees, failure to build new levees to meet the probable storm surges and planning failures that allowed the loss of protective wetlands that might have absorbed part of the impact of the hurricane. Moreover, there was very little coordination between emergency organizations and evacuation plans were inadequate leading to a substantial loss of life. Surprisingly, and in spite of the IPCC (2007) warnings and the obvious extent of damage that occurred during Hurricane Katrina, coastal development such as marinas continues to occur with no apparent allowance included for projected sea level increases. Figure 5.5 illustrates the construction of a coastal marine with no apparent provision for future sea level rises.

Figure 5.5.

An example of a marina development that will be exposed to flooding if sea levels rise in the 21st century.

Source: Photograph courtesy of Bruce Prideaux.

Geographicextent of the impact is an important scale for analysing the extent of crises. The impact of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was localised to the states affected. However, the earlier September 11, 2001 attack on the United States had an impact that was global in nature and in the short-term caused a sharp decline in international air travel. The long-term impacts included the cost of upgrading airport and aircraft security to prevent attacks. In the September 11 crisis, the direct costs related to replacement or repairs to buildings and aircraft and the cost of medical services for victims were far outweighed by the ongoing cost of security that has been incurred globally, including by countries that were remote from the country where the attack occurred.

Level of recognition of danger.There are a number of ongoing problems that can be identified in the present but which are largely ignored because they are perceived as having little effect on tourism. Examples of these include Malaria which killed an estimated 1 million persons in 2006 (www.who.int/entily/mediacentre/factsheet/Fs094/en/ visited 20 August 2007) and Tuberculosis (www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/Fs104/en/index html visited 20 August 2007) which killed an estimated 1.5 million persons in 2006. These and other diseases, while acknowledged as major health problems in many tropical countries, are either ignored because they currently have little impact on most tourism markets or are located in areas far removed from the main areas of current activity. One possible impact of climate change will be an increase in the range of the malaria carryinganophelesmosquito into tourism destinations presently free of malaria. In areas identified as being at risk in the future, planning will need to incorporate mitigation policies designed to minimize risk and deal with crises once they occur. Where coastal areas are at risk from sea level rises, construction standards should incorporate measures designed to protect against anticipated increases in water levels. In some regions where earthquakes are common or anticipated, many planning authorities including those in Japan, New Zealand and earthquake prone parts of the United States already incorporate design requirements into buildings to protect them from earthquake damage. When planning of this nature does not occur or where the planning is ineffective the cost in lives may be significant as demonstrated by the Sichuan Earthquake in China on 12 May 2008 which killed an estimated 69,000 people with 18,000 listed as missing. Other possible crises of this nature include peak oil, growing scarcity of fresh water and concerns over world food production.

Managing Crisis

Developing a successful strategy to cope with crisis in both the pre- and post-crisis periods was recognized by Faulkner (2001) as an essential first step towards successfully dealing with crisis. While this model has been adapted by a number of authors its essential framework has withstood the test of time and provides a useful crisis-planning framework. Faulkner (2001:44) postulated a six-phase process for crisis management (see Figure 5.6 ), which in this book is telescoped into three stages: pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis.

Figure 5.6.

Tourism management framework.

Source: Faulkner (2001:144).

An important element in crisis planning is recognizing that national cultures should be regarded as a frame against which the responses to crises may be studied. According to Schmidt and Berrell (2007), the study of how national culture influences human behaviour is now at a post-theory stage, that is the field of study is well developed and accepted as a reality rather than a theory. In Western countries societies can be classed as low-context while a number of Asian countries can be classed as high-context, where context refers to values, views on long-term relationships and dealing with insiders. In a high-context nation significant value is placed on long-term relationships while in low-context countries greater value is placed on universal principles and short-term relationships. Members of each type of society think differently about causality, space and cosmology (Schmidt and Berrell, 2007) and as a consequence can be expected to respond to crises differently. In high-context countries decision-making is usually hierarchical and based on seniority creating barriers to rapid independent responses by junior officials in the filed. In low-context countries there is greater opportunity for flexibility particularly by junior officials who have greater latitude to respond without first seeking directions from senior authority.

In this chapter a simplified version of Faulkner's framework is used to illustrate aspects of crisis response and management. Thepre-crisisstage parallels Faulkner's Phase One, thecrisisstage combines Faulkner's Phases Two and Three and thecrisis recoverystage incorporates Faulkner's Phases Four to Six. Faulkner model illustrated in Figure 5.6 has been extensively debated, but the essence of the model showing the move from a pre-crisis time period to a recovery period has been retained.

Pre-Crisis Stage

As the scenario at the beginning of the chapter illustrates, a crisis can occur rapidly and in most circumstances is unexpected. In the absence of crisis contingency planning, responses by the public and private sectors are likely to be ill-informed and uncoordinated. In the absence of planning there is scope for high-causality levels as demonstrated by the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami and Hurricane Katrina. Where there is adequate planning in place the likelihood of causalities is greatly reduced. In April 2006 severe Cyclone Larry with winds speeds of up to 240 km/h struck the coast of North Queensland, Australia damaging or destroying up to 70% of the buildings in its path (Falco-Mammone et al., 2006). The civil defence authorities had planned for and practised such an event and were able to evacuate all residents at risk with the result that there were no deaths although the damage bill exceeded AUD$1 billion. The success of the emergency services in dealing with Cyclone Larry illustrates the importance of retaining organizational learning in the post-resolution stage of Faulkner's model. Lessons learnt from Cyclone Winifred which struck the same region 20 years before (Falco-Mammone et al., 2006) had been used to develop a detailed response plan and to inform local government disaster planning.

In destinations including Wellington, Tokyo and San Francisco where there are known risks of earthquakes, considerable thought has been given to building designs, escape routes, causality handling and post-event crisis management. However, in many other destinations the level of preparedness for crisis is much lower, if present at all, leaving these destinations and their visitors vulnerable to the effects of crisis. It is therefore critical for all destinations and the businesses in each destination to be aware of the need for crisis planning and to actively support such planning. Undertaking action of this nature is a significant first step towards minimizing the impact of a crisis when it does occur. The following diagram (Figure 5.7 ) adapted from Lyon and Worton (2007) illustrates a suggested series of steps that should be taken in the pre-crisis period.

Figure 5.7.

Crisis management planning framework for pre-crisis stage.

Source: Adapted from Lyon and Worton (2007).

The success of this process will be determined by the ability of the destination to develop and practise an effective command, control, communications and recovery structure that will be able to take overall responsibility for crisis planning and coordination. While command, control and communications is a well-defined military concept, it is not widely used by civilian agencies. In its military application a 3CI (command, control, communications and intelligence) organization has a capacity to withstand loss of personal and resources while continuing to exercise effective command and gather intelligence about the surrounding threat. In a civilian adaptation a 3CR organization (command, control, communications and recovery) is an appropriate model that can exercise command and control during the crisis stage and move into a recovery phase in the post-crisis stage.

If lines of command and control are ambiguous or divided between a number of organizations, there is ample scope for mistakes to occur. This was demonstrated during Hurricane Katrina when the Commanding Officer of the 920th Rescue Wing of the Air Force Reserve Command spent the first 24 h after the hurricane attempting to obtain authority to commence rescue flights (Prideaux and Laws, 2007). Because The US Federal Emergency Management Authority was not authorized to task military units confusion arose in both civilian and military chains of command over who was authorized to respond to requests for military assistance by civilian agencies. While this confusion was being sought out hundreds of people were being injured or were dying.

Disaster planning should be an integral part of the planning process commencing within the debates that occur in the formulation of the aims and objective stage. Inclusion of crisis planning in its broadest sense (short- to long-term perspectives) will assist the destination developed appropriate criteria in responding to crises including the important post-crisis recovery period (Stages 5 and 6 in Faulkner's model).

Crisis Stage

A crisis event can be difficult to respond to because it is often unpredictable and in many circumstances normal structures of governance and communications are disrupted. In their discussion on the management tasks required immediately after the crisis event, Lawset al.(2006:3) identified four tasks:

• • Dealing with the crisis itself. This may include measures to enhance the safety and well being of visitors and residents perhaps by evacuation. Other measures may include actions to protect property and infrastructure such as moving equipment to safer ground, relocating art works and closing down infrastructure that might cause environmental problems if damaged.
• • Responding to concerns and needs of people directly affected. Actions that might need to occur including treating injuries, restoring communications networks to allow contact with concerned relatives and friends and external rescue authorities, ensuring an adequate flow of information from the authorities, arranging safe accommodation and caring for the injured.
• • Minimizing the damage which might result directly from adverse publicity. Action taken here will largely depend on the extent of damage. If the damage is relatively minor the destination may undertake an advertising campaign to inform prospective visitors that the destination is still functioning.
• • Resolve difficulties with suppliers and other business partners. This is an important consideration because of the potential for these organizations to incur a substantial decline in revenue. This tactic has been used successfully by Fiji in the past. After cyclone strikes, the nation's tourism authorities rapidly inform the global distribution system which resort properties remain open.

Damage can be expected to occur to the environment as illustrated in Figure 5.8 and buildings as illustrated in Figure 5.9 . While there is an obvious need to restore buildings extensive remedial work may also be required to assist the natural environment to recover. Unlike buildings (Figure 5.9) restoring the natural environment is a task that may take a long period of time and in some sensitive environments may take decades or even centuries.

Figure 5.8.

An uprooted tree cause by Cyclone Larry demonstrates the impact of a cyclone on the natural environment.

Source: Photo Courtesy of Bruce Prideaux.

Figure 5.9.

Impact of Cyclone Larry on a hotel.

Source: Photo Courtesy of Bruce Prideaux.

While the actions that should occur in the crisis period are only discussed briefly in this chapter the manner in which the destination reacts during the crisis period is critical and will have significant implications for future recovery.

Crisis Recovery Stage

The growing number of international destinations and the increasing ease of cross border travel have created a global tourism industry that is competitive, able to readily offer substitute destinations for those affected by crisis and comprised of tourists who have few loyalties to previously visited destinations. The danger for destinations affected by disaster is that without a well resourced and managed post-disaster recovery strategy, demand will contract and take a long period to return to pre-crisis levels. This has been the case in Bali where even in 2007 the international market had not recovered to the level that existed prior to first bombing in 2002. Despite reduced prices and increased publicity many tourists have switched to other low-cost beach destinations largely because of continuing uncertainty about personal safety. In the post-crisis period, assurances that the destination remains open for business, is safe and continues to be attractive will result in a smaller decline in visitor numbers over a shorter period of time. The successful post-recovery phase of marketing undertaken in North Queensland, after it was struck by Cyclone Larry in 2006, resulted in only a slight fall in visitor numbers in the month after the event and full recovery by the end of the year.

Case Study 5.2 Singapore's Response to the SARS Epidemic of 2002/2003.

The difficulty of dealing with an unanticipated crisis event is discussed in the following case study that traces the response of Singapore's tourism industry to the SARS crisis of 2002/2003. In her description of the impact of SARS on Singapore Henderson (2007) noted how disease has the capacity to seriously disrupt international tourism. First appearing in Guangdong China in late 2002, SARS spread to Hong Kong and other parts of Asia, creating a wave of hysteria that seriously disrupted regional tourism flows. In May 2003 international arrivals to Singapore fell by 70% compared to the year before and for the calendar year of 2003 fell by 19.1%.

The SARS crisis developed with little pre-warning forcing the government to manage the crisis using a containment and damage limitation strategy. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommended a number of measures to affected countries designed to contain the epidemic and prevent it escalating into a pandemic. One measure recommended by the WHO was warning international visitors to cancel travel to affected areas and for affected countries to implement health checks for those visitors who continued to undertake travel. Intergovernmental meetings were arranged to coordinate containment and management strategies and data sharing protocols were established. The tourism industry met regularly with representatives of the Pacific Asia Tourism Association (PATA), Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Tourism Working Group and the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) to share information and work on post-crisis recovery strategies.

To assist the tourism industry a Director of Emergency Planning and a ‘Cool Team’ were appointed (Henderson, 2007). The Singapore Tourism Board (STB), a government appointed body, was supported by the Singapore Government which made available a S$ 230 million relief package to be distributed to the worst affected businesses. While the recovery of the tourism industry was an important priority, bringing SARS under control had the highest priority. In the hospitality industry considerable attention was paid to infection control to prevent the further spread of the disease.

After being declared free of the disease by the WHO, the Singapore tourism industry shifted from a defensive mode to an offensive mode. The Singapore Tourism Board initiated a broad range of marketing measures to both restore confidence and kickstart the nation's inbound sector. Measures included worldwide marketing, promotional packages and hosting of trade and media personnel. The STB also established a new Emergency Planning Division to undertake emergency planning for future crises. By June 2003 the first signs that recovery was occurring became evident.

Crisis as a Tourism Attraction

The aftermath of a crisis may leave places that in time become tourist attractions attracting the gaze of revulsion, fascination or curiosity (Lennon and Foley, 2000). The City of Pompeii in Italy was buried in a severe volcanic eruption in August AD 79 and today is a major international tourist attraction. In Hawaii, the USS Arizona which was sunk by the Japanese Imperial Navy in the 24 December 1941 attack on Pearl Harbour, has become a major tourism attraction managed by the US Parks service. In an edited collection on aspects of Dark Tourism, Ashworth and Hartmann (2005) wrote that atrocity has become an attraction that is able to be packaged and promoted for touristic purposes. In this manner the seriousness of the events remembered is introduced into the fun of tourism, sometimes leading to trivialization. There are many other sites that remember disaster including the Death Camps (including Auschwitz, Trebinka and Belzec) of the Holocaust period in Nazi Germany, numerous Civil War battlefields in the United States, the concentration camps of Soviet era, the Cambodian killing fields of the Pol Pot era (1975–1978) and the 1994 genocide of the Tutsi tribe in Rwanda.

Future Crises

As discussed earlier, there is a need for destination managers in both the private and public sectors to be alert to the range of factors that may precipitate future crises. The possible impact of climate change has been canvassed as one such future crisis. The impact ofpeak oilon the ability of the transport system to continue to sustain the current levels of international travel let alone the growth predicted by the UNWTO (2003) will also become an increasingly important issue in the future. There are many other potential candidates some of which are listed in the following discussion. From a destination perspective it is necessary to identify potential candidates for future crises so that some preparatory planning can be undertaken. There is, of course, no certainty that all potential threats are identified or adequately prepared for, however it is apparent that some level of pre-event planning will enable participants to better cope with the crisis when it does occur. Failure to undertake action of this nature may lead to undesirable futures of the type discussed in Figure 3.5.

It is apparent that climate change will generate a range of associated crises including changing rainfall and temperature patterns. Evidence of events directly related to changing climatic patterns is already starting to emerge and governments and businesses are beginning to respond. Some firms have positioned themselves to turn fears of climate change into a positive by offering consumers opportunities to offset their carbon footprint. For example, Virgin Blue (Australia) along with an increasing number of other airlines offers passengers the opportunity to offset the carbon generated by their travel. Sensing that there is a commercial advantage to be seen in responding positively to the threat of climate change Sir Richard Branson's Virgin Airline group has established Virgin Fuels with a mandate to develop clean fuels. One of the first projects that the company has undertaken is to develop biofuels for aircraft in conjunction with Boeing Company and aircraft engine maker, GE Aviation (Yoon, 2007).

Climate change will have a great influence on future tourism flows, most of which can be modelled by using scenario analysis based on current and projected trends. Some of these threats have been discussed in this and other chapters of this book. Given the dire nature of the predictions contained in the 2007 IPCC report and the 2006 Stern Report, it is imperative that destination authorities consider the likely impact of climate change on their destination in a time frame that extends far beyond the normal time frames used by managers and even planners. The imperative of this recommendation can be demonstrated by research (Prideaux, 2006) that found that 40% of backpackers visiting Cairns in Australia would seek alternative destinations if the Great Barrier Reef, the region's major tourism attraction, was severely damaged by climate change, an event that is predicted by the IPCC (2007) to occur within the next 30 years. To mitigate such a crisis the destination will need to consider strategies that might help preserve parts of the reef as well as develop new alternative iconic attractions.

While associated with climate change, increasing demand for fresh water has the potential to create significant political tension particularly in the Middle East and in parts of Asia as well as disrupt established urban settlement patterns. Change can occur quickly as demonstrated by the overuse of Lake Chad in Africa for irrigation and grazing. In a period of a little over 40 years the area of the lake was reduced by about 70% causing severe disruption to both regional and national economies dependent on the lake (Pearce, 2006). Lack of fresh water may become a major issue for some destinations in the future, particularly if political tensions are generated.

Throughout history plague and other pandemics have wrought havoc on human populations. Hollister and Bennett (2006) reported that the Bubonic plague and possibly other diseases killed an estimated 20 million Europeans, or one third of the population during the Black Death of 1347–1351. The plague had struck many times earlier and struck again later. For example, the Great Plague of London (1665/1666) is estimated to have killed up to 100,000 persons. In 1918 an influenza pandemic (the Spanish Flu) appeared and by the time it had run its course in 1919 an estimated 40–50 million persons had died. The SARS epidemic of 2002/2003 highlighted the potential damage that a pandemic of the nature of the Spanish Flu could cause to global tourism. The Asian Development Bank estimated that an Avian flu pandemic could collectively cost Asia almost US$ 282 billion or 6.5% of its Gross Domestic Product (Mc Donald, 2005). The World Bank estimated that the global economy could incur losses of the order of US$ 800 billion. Influenza is just one of a large number of diseases that could create crises for the tourism industry. Other candidates include a spread of malaria into new areas as regional climatic patterns change, AIDS/HIV and tuberculosis.

There are numerous other trends that have the potential to cause future crises. This chapter has examined a number of these but to this list must be added terrorism, technological changes, wars on scales that range from local to global, financial crises ranging from recession to depression, the impending peaking of global oil reserves, ageing of some large population groups and threats from disease to global food stocks. It is obviously difficult for destinations to keep abreast of developments in wide and diverse categories of risks. This should be the task of government and/or industry associations. It is important however for destinations to be aware of risk and that crises may occur with short or no warning period and take a form that had not been previously anticipated. Developing a managerial capability to deal with the unexpected is an imperative that must be incorporated within destination management and planning by each of the firms, individuals and agencies that collectively constitute the destination. To avoid or mitigate the type of events described in the scenario at the beginning of this chapter planning for crisis needs to be incorporated in every aspect of destination planning and needs to be regularly updated. To fail to plan will hamper recovery when a crisis does occur. Humanity has faced and will continue to face new crises perhaps even on the scale of the Black Death. Planning assisted by science and the support of the community is the bedrock on which destination survival in the long-term will be built.

Key Issue

• •Crises and disasters occur regularly, often with little or no warning.
• •Destination planning should include crisis planning and recovery as key elements.
• •Future crises may include climate change, the impact ofpeak oiland further economic disruptions.
• •Scale is a useful mechanism for assessing the possible impacts of crisis events.