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. 2020 May 4;174(7):1–9. doi: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2020.0372

Patterns of Influenza Vaccination and Vaccine Effectiveness Among Young US Children Who Receive Outpatient Care for Acute Respiratory Tract Illness

Jessie R Chung 1,, Brendan Flannery 1, Manjusha Gaglani 2,3, Michael E Smith 3, Evelyn C Reis 4, Robert W Hickey 5, Michael L Jackson 6, Lisa A Jackson 6, Edward A Belongia 7, Huong Q McLean 7, Emily T Martin 8, Hannah E Segaloff 8, Sara S Kim 1, Manish M Patel 1
PMCID: PMC7199168  PMID: 32364599

Key Points

Question

What vaccination sequence is associated with the best protection against influenza for children?

Findings

In this case-control study including 7533 children, vaccine effectiveness against medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza was higher among children who received the recommended number of doses compared with children who did not receive the recommended number of doses. Vaccine-naive children aged 2 years or younger who received 2 doses of influenza vaccine in their first vaccination season were less likely to test positive for influenza than those who received 1 dose.

Meaning

Results of this study suggest that the burden of influenza among young children in the US might be reduced by improving adherence to an initial 2-dose series of influenza vaccination in previously unvaccinated children.

Abstract

Importance

The burden of influenza among young children is high, and influenza vaccination is the primary strategy to prevent the virus and its complications. Less is known about differences in clinical protection following 1 vs 2 doses of initial influenza vaccination.

Objectives

To describe patterns of influenza vaccination among young children who receive outpatient care for acute respiratory tract illness in the US and compare vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically attended laboratory-confirmed influenza by number of influenza vaccine doses received.

Design

This test-negative case-control study was conducted in outpatient clinics, including emergency departments, at 5 sites of the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network during the 2014-2015 through 2017-2018 influenza seasons. The present study was performed from November 5, 2014, to April 12, 2018, during periods of local influenza circulation. Children aged 6 months to 8 years with an acute respiratory tract illness with cough who presented for outpatient care within 7 days of illness onset were included. All children were tested using real-time, reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction for influenza for research purposes.

Exposures

Vaccination in the enrollment season with either 1 or 2 doses of inactivated influenza vaccine as documented from electronic medical records, including state immunization information systems.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Medically attended acute respiratory tract infection with real-time, reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction testing for influenza.

Results

Of 7533 children, 3480 children (46%) were girls, 4687 children (62%) were non-Hispanic white, and 4871 children (65%) were younger than 5 years. A total of 3912 children (52%) were unvaccinated in the enrollment season, 2924 children (39%) were fully vaccinated, and 697 children (9%) were partially vaccinated. Adjusted VE against any influenza was 51% (95% CI, 44%-57%) among fully vaccinated children and 41% (95% CI, 25%-54%) among partially vaccinated children. Among 1519 vaccine-naive children aged 6 months to 2 years, the VE of 2 doses in the enrollment season was 53% (95% CI, 28%-70%), and the VE of 1 dose was 23% (95% CI, −11% to 47%); those who received 2 doses were less likely to test positive for influenza compared with children who received only 1 dose (adjusted odds ratio, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.35-0.93).

Conclusions and Relevance

Consistent with US influenza vaccine policy, receipt of the recommended number of doses resulted in higher VE than partial vaccination in 4 influenza seasons. Efforts to improve 2-dose coverage for previously unvaccinated children may reduce the burden of influenza in this population.


This case-control study compares vaccine effectiveness against medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza in infants and children who received 1 vs 2 doses of influenza vaccine.

Introduction

Influenza disease burden is high among young children, and annual vaccination is recommended in the US beginning at age 6 months.1,2 For influenza and other pathogens, the immune system’s prime (ie, first) exposure to vaccination establishes a baseline for immune response to subsequent exposures through vaccination or infection. In young children, a 2-dose (ie, full) influenza vaccination series has been shown to generate higher antibody titers than single (ie, partial) vaccination, but less is known about differences in clinical protection following 1 vs 2 doses on initial influenza vaccination.3,4,5 The US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) presently recommends 2 doses of influenza vaccine for children aged 6 months to 8 years who have received fewer than 2 previous doses in their lifetime.2,6,7,8,9 For older children, adolescents, and all other persons aged 9 years or older who are more likely than younger children to be immunologically primed, the ACIP recommends 1 annual dose for all other persons.

Current ACIP recommendations for vaccinating children recognize the need for a priming dose and a booster dose but also allow flexibility for vaccinations to be received across influenza seasons. A child is not recommended to receive 1 annual dose until they have received at least 2 previous doses or reach the age of 9 years. Previous doses do not need to be administered in the same or consecutive seasons to count toward the total. Children previously vaccinated with fewer than 2 doses who receive only 1 dose in the current season are considered to be partially vaccinated. Limited data exist to describe and compare the various sequences currently used by parents and clinicians. A previous study examined vaccine effectiveness (VE) among children primed with different sequences in 2 influenza seasons and found that receipt of 2 doses within a season might provide more protection than other strategies.10 The present study extends the previous study using data from the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness (Flu VE) Network over 4 more contemporary seasons to (1) describe influenza vaccination sequences currently received by US children who presented for outpatient medical care for acute respiratory tract infection, (2) compare VE among fully and partially vaccinated children, and (3) determine whether the number of doses administered in the first season of vaccination affected VE among children aged 6 months to 2 years.

Methods

Methods used in the Flu VE Network have been described previously.11 Briefly, patients who presented with a cough of less than 8 days’ duration were enrolled at outpatient facilities, including emergency departments, at 5 study sites in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Texas, Washington, and Wisconsin during periods of influenza circulation from 2014-2015 through 2017-2018 (enrollment dates available in eTable 1 in the Supplement). The present study was performed from November 5, 2014, to April 12, 2018, during periods of local influenza circulation. Eligible patients were aged 6 months or older on September 1 of the enrollment season; we included only those aged 8 years or younger at enrollment. Study staff collected combined nasal and oropharyngeal swab specimens (nasal swabs only for children aged <2 years) that were tested for influenza viruses at site laboratories using real-time, reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention primers, probes, and testing protocol.12 After providing written or oral informed consent, parents or guardians completed an enrollment interview including questions regarding the child’s demographics and general health status. Study procedures, forms, and consent documents were approved by each site’s institutional review boards. Participants received financial compensation.

Influenza vaccination histories, including doses received in the enrollment season, were determined using documentation from electronic medical records and immunization information systems, including state registries. We assumed that few children would have received doses outside the state of enrollment and that state immunization information systems would capture most vaccinations.13,14,15,16,17,18 We excluded participants if they were younger than 6 months at receipt of their first dose (eTable 2 in the Supplement). We also excluded children who were vaccinated 0 to 13 days before illness onset, those who received 2 doses of influenza vaccine less than 4 weeks apart in the enrollment season, and those who received live attenuated influenza vaccine in the enrollment season.

Statistical Analysis

We assessed VE through a test-negative design during each of the 2014-2015 through 2017-2018 influenza seasons. Influenza VE compares the odds of testing positive for influenza between vaccinated and unvaccinated participants. We calculated the VE of inactivated influenza vaccine in the enrollment season as (1 − odds ratio) × 100% separately against any influenza, influenza A(H3N2), influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, and influenza B. For all analyses, test-negative controls were rRT-PCR negative for all influenza viruses. We considered the enrollment season as the current influenza season. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% CIs were determined from logistic regression models that included study site, influenza season, age in months at enrollment, calendar time of enrollment relative to the peak of influenza activity (as prepeak, peak, or postpeak periods), and presence of 1 or more high-risk medical conditions (eg, asthma) documented in the electronic medical record in the preceding year.2,11 These covariate data were complete for cases and controls. Other variables (eg, age at first dose of influenza vaccine, sex, race/Hispanic ethnicity, days from illness onset to enrollment, general reported health status, and household exposure to cigarette smoke) were assessed as potential confounders but were not retained in the final model because they did not modify the aOR by greater than 5%. We used Firth corrected logistic regression when the number of influenza-positive cases was less than 50. Estimates were not calculated when the number of influenza-positive cases was less than 10. Analyses were conducted using SAS statistical software, version 9.4 (SAS Institute Inc).

We assessed whether current-season VE differed among children who were fully vs partially vaccinated according to current ACIP recommendations.2 Fully vaccinated children were those who received 1 dose or none before the current season and 2 doses of influenza vaccine in the current season at least 4 weeks apart or children who received 2 or more doses before the current season and 1 or more dose in the current season. All other vaccinated children were considered to be partially vaccinated. We also stratified VE for fully and partially vaccinated children by the number of doses received in the first vaccination season. To further examine the associations of different vaccination histories on influenza risk, we compared the odds of influenza among vaccinated groups.

To test the hypothesis that 2 doses of influenza vaccine provided better protection than 1 dose against medically attended laboratory-confirmed influenza, we examined the VE of 1 inactivated influenza vaccine dose vs 2 doses in the current season among previously unvaccinated children aged 2 years or younger. We restricted this analysis to this age group because most (>80%) children received the first vaccine dose when they were younger than 2 years. We also compared the odds of influenza among previously unvaccinated children aged 2 years or younger who received 2 current-season doses with those who received 1 dose. A 95% CI that excluded the null value of 1.0 was considered statistically significant.

In sample size calculations, we estimated that 1104 children including 138 influenza-positive cases would be needed to detect a 40% reduction in influenza (VE) at 80% power (α = .05), with 55% of children receiving 2 doses.

We conducted 2 sensitivity analyses. In the first, we excluded children enrolled in the 2014-2015 influenza season when antigenically distinct influenza A(H3N2) viruses circulated in the US, for which the vaccine was poorly matched.19 In the second analysis, in a conservative attempt to ensure that all influenza immunizations were included in our data, we excluded children for whom electronic medical records at the enrolling health system did not extend back to the child’s year of birth.

Results

From 2014-2015 through 2017-2018, 8339 children aged 6 months to 8 years were enrolled; of these, 806 children were excluded from analyses. The most common reason for exclusion was documented receipt of live attenuated influenza vaccine in the current season (435 [54%]) (eTable 2 in the Supplement). Thus, the number of children included in the analysis was 7533; of these, 3480 children were girls (46%), 4687 children were non-Hispanic white (62%), and 4871 children (65%) were younger than 5 years.

Most of the 7533 included children (5093 [68%]) were first vaccinated before the current season, 902 children (12%) were vaccinated for the first time in the current season, and 1538 children (20%) were never vaccinated (Table 1). Most children (5355/5995 [89%]) who had been vaccinated in their lifetime either during and/or before the current season received their first influenza vaccine dose documented when they were younger than 2 years. In 5642 vaccinated children (94%), inactivated influenza vaccine was the first influenza vaccine type received.

Table 1. Descriptive Characteristics of Children Aged 6 Months to 8 Years by Vaccination History.

Characteristic No. (%)
Total Never vaccinated In first season
1 Dose 2 Doses
All, No. (%) 7533 (100) 1538 (20) 2416 (32) 3579 (48)
First vaccination season
Prior to enrollment season 5093 (85)a NA 1950 (81) 3143 (88)
During enrollment season 902 (15)a NA 466 (19) 436 (12)
Age at first dose of influenza vaccine NA
Median (IQR), mo 9 (6-12) 11 (6-18) 8 (6-11)
<2 y 5355 (89)a NA 1870 (77) 3485 (97)
2-4 y 528 (9)a NA 443 (18) 85 (2)
5-8 y 112 (2)a NA 103 (4) 9 (0.3)
Vaccine type of first doseb
Inactivated influenza vaccine 5642 (94)a NA 2218 (97) 3424 (99)
Live attenuated influenza vaccine 83 (1)a NA 74 (3) 9 (1)
Enrollment season
2014-2015 2244 (30) 457 (30) 767 (32) 1020 (29)
2015-2016 1641 (22) 361 (23) 516 (21) 764 (21)
2016-2017 1667 (22) 319 (21) 548 (23) 800 (22)
2017-2018 1981 (26) 401 (26) 585 (24) 995 (28)
Age at enrollment, y
<2 1940 (26) 494 (32) 494 (20) 952 (27)
2-4 2931 (39) 550 (36) 841 (35) 1540 (43)
5-8 2662 (35) 494 (32) 1081 (45) 1087 (30)
Enrollment site
Michigan 1466 (19) 252 (16) 386 (16) 828 (23)
Pennsylvania 1342 (18) 322 (21) 481 (20) 539 (15)
Texas 1550 (21) 384 (25) 650 (27) 516 (14)
Washington 1078 (14) 190 (12) 347 (14) 541 (15)
Wisconsin 2097 (28) 390 (25) 552 (23) 1155 (32)
Sex
Female 3480 (46) 741 (48) 1130 (47) 1609 (45)
Male 4053 (54) 797 (52) 1286 (53) 1970 (55)
Race or Hispanic ethnicityc
Non-Hispanic
White 4687 (62) 922 (60) 1342 (56) 2423 (68)
Black 978 (13) 252 (16) 374 (15) 352 (10)
Other race, non-Hispanic 819 (11) 137 (9) 281 (12) 401 (11)
Hispanic, any race 1030 (14) 222 (14) 413 (17) 395 (11)
≥1 Smoker in the householdd 1706 (23) 384 (25) 635 (26) 687 (19)
≥1 Child aged <12 y in the householde 5164 (69) 1099 (71) 1722 (71) 2343 (65)
Health insurance typef
Public 1876 (61) 479 (65) 758 (64) 639 (56)
Private 1064 (35) 232 (31) 378 (32) 454 (40)
Both 100 (3) 20 (3) 36 (3) 44 (4)
Neither 25 (1) 11 (1) 10 (0.1) 4 (0.4)
≥1 High-risk medical condition presentg 1883 (25) 295 (19) 666 (28) 922 (26)
General reported health statush
Excellent 4332 (58) 941 (61) 1357 (56) 2034 (57)
Very good 2059 (27) 383 (25) 668 (28) 1008 (28)
Good 926 (12) 177 (12) 312 (13) 437 (12)
Fair/poor 210 (3) 35 (2) 78 (3) 97 (3)
Reported fever/feverishness at enrollmenti 5624 (75) 1188 (77) 1754 (73) 2682 (75)
Interval from onset to specimen collection, d
0-2 2945 (39) 617 (40) 973 (40) 1355 (38)
3-4 2813 (37) 565 (37) 889 (37) 1359 (38)
5-7 1775 (24) 356 (23) 554 (23) 865 (24)
Influenza rRT-PCR result
Negative 5909 (78) 1135 (74) 1873 (78) 2901 (81)
Positive 1624 (22) 403 (26) 543 (22) 678 (19)
A, no subtype 15 (0.2) 5 (0.3) 5 (0.2) 5 (0.1)
A(H3N2) 883 (12) 196 (13) 291 (12) 396 (11)
A(H1N1)pdm09 273 (4) 85 (6) 82 (3) 106 (3)
B, no lineage 6 (0.1) 1 (0.1) 4 (0.2) 1 (0)
B/Yamagata 107 (1) 26 (2) 44 (2) 37 (1)
B/Victoria 327 (4) 89 (6) 111 (5) 127 (4)
Coinfection 13 (0.2) 1 (0.1) 6 (0.3) 6 (0.2)

Abbreviations: IQR, interquartile range; NA, not applicable; rRT-PCR, real-time, reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction.

a

Denominator is the total number of children ever vaccinated (n = 5995).

b

Data on type of first influenza vaccine were missing for 270 patients, including 146 receiving 2 doses in first season and 124 receiving 1 dose in first season.

c

Parent/guardian reported at enrollment. Data were missing on race or ethnicity for 19 patients, including 5 unvaccinated, 6 receiving 1 dose in first season, and 8 receiving 2 doses in first season.

d

Data were missing for 18 patients, including 9 unvaccinated, 3 receiving 1 dose in first season, and 6 receiving 2 doses in first season.

e

Excludes enrolled child. Data were missing for 10 patients, including 2 unvaccinated, 6 receiving 1 dose in first season, and 2 receiving 2 doses in first season.

f

Health insurance status at enrollment was an optional data element. As such, denominators were 3065 overall, 742 unvaccinated, 1182 receiving 1 dose in first season, and 1141 receiving 2 doses in first season.

g

High-risk medical conditions as defined by the US Advisory Committee on Immunization practices.2 The most common condition was asthma. Complete code lists were reported by Jackson et al.11

h

Parent/guardian reported at enrollment. Data were missing on general reported health status for 6 patients, including 2 unvaccinated, 1 receiving 1 dose in first season, and 3 receiving 2 doses in first season.

i

Data were missing for 9 patients, including 1 unvaccinated, 4 receiving 1 dose in first season, and 4 receiving 2 doses in first season.

Overall, 3579 of 5995 vaccinated children (60%) received 2 documented doses during their first vaccination season. Children who first received 2 doses within their initial vaccination season were younger when they were first vaccinated (median, 8 months; interquartile range, 6-11) compared with children who received only 1 dose during their first vaccination season (median, 11 months; interquartile range, 6-18) (Table 1). Children who received 2 doses within their first vaccination season were also more likely to be non-Hispanic white (2423/3579 [68%]) and have private health insurance (454/1141 [40%]). The proportion of children who received 2 doses within their first vaccination season was higher among those initially vaccinated before age 2 years (3485/5355[65%]) compared with children first vaccinated at age 2 to 4 years (85/528 [16%]) or 5 to 8 years (9/112 [8%]). Children who were never vaccinated were younger at enrollment (median, 39 months; interquartile range, 19-67); less likely to have a high-risk medical condition, such as asthma or reactive airways disease (295/1538 [19%]); and more likely to report excellent general health (941/1536 [61%]) compared with vaccinated children.

Only 2924 of all 7533 children (39%) received the recommended number of doses in the current season and were considered fully vaccinated. Most fully vaccinated children (2437/2924 [83%]) received 1 dose in the current season; few (487/2924 [17%]) received 2 doses. In all, 3912 of 7533 children (52%) were unvaccinated in the current season, and a smaller proportion of all children (697/7533 [9%]) were partially vaccinated. Adjusted VE against any influenza was 51% (95% CI, 44%-57%) among fully vaccinated children and 41% (95% CI, 25%-54%) among partially vaccinated children (Table 2). Full vaccination was associated with having lower odds of influenza compared with partially vaccinated children (aOR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.61-1.01).

Table 2. Vaccine Effectiveness of Inactivated Influenza Vaccine Against Any Medically Attended, Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza Among Fully and Partially Vaccinated Children Aged 8 Years or Youngera.

Prior vaccination Enrollment season vaccination, doses Description No. Influenza-positive, No. (%) VE, % (95% CI)
Unadjusted Adjustedb
Any ≥1 Fully vaccinated 2924 427 (15) 56 (50-61) 51 (44-57)
1 Partially vaccinated 697 99 (14) 58 (47-66) 41 (25-54)
0 Unvaccinated 3912 1098 (28) 1 [Reference] 1 [Reference]
0 Doses 2 Fully vaccinated 436 41 (9) 71 (59-79) 52 (30-67)
1 Partially vaccinated 466 66 (14) 53 (38-65) 45 (25-60)
0 Unvaccinated 1538 403 (26) 1 [Reference] 1 [Reference]
1 Dose 2 Fully vaccinated 51 3 (6) 83 (45-95) Not reportedc
1 Partially vaccinated 231 33 (14) 55 (32-70) 50 (22-67)
0 Unvaccinated 524 142 (27) 1 [Reference] 1 [Reference]
≥2 Doses 1 Fully vaccinated 2437 383 (16) 56 (49-62) 46 (37-54)
0 Unvaccinated 1850 553 (30) 1 [Reference] 1 [Reference]

Abbreviation: VE, vaccine effectiveness.

a

Defined as outlined in the US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommendations from 2015-2016 through 2017-2018.2,7,8,9

b

Models adjusted for season, enrollment site, age in months, calendar time of enrollment, and presence of 1 or more high-risk medical condition.

c

Fewer than 10 cases reported.

Among children recommended to receive 2 doses in the current season, adjusted VE was 58% (95% CI, 40%-70%) among fully vaccinated children compared with 46% (95% CI, 31%-58%) among partially vaccinated children; the odds of influenza were lower among children who received 2 doses compared with children who received only 1 dose (aOR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.40-0.94). Only 51 children who received 1 previous dose received 2 doses in the current season despite recommendations. Adjusted VE was 50% (95% CI, 22%-67%) among 231 partially vaccinated children with 1 prior dose and 1 current-season dose.

Among 2140 children who were unvaccinated before the current season, 902 children (42%) were vaccinated in the current season, including 466 children (52%) who received 1 dose and 436 children (48%) who received 2 doses. Most of the children whose first vaccination occurred in the current season (794/902 [88%]) were aged 2 years or younger. Adjusted VE against any influenza virus among children aged 2 years or younger who were first vaccinated during the current season was 38% (95% CI, 15%-55%) (Table 3). Vaccine effectiveness was 53% (95% CI, 28%-70%) among vaccine-naive children aged 6 months to 2 years who received 2 doses and 23% (95% CI, −11% to 47%) for children who received 1 dose. The odds of influenza were lower among children who received 2 doses compared with those who received 1 dose (aOR = 0.57; 95% CI, 0.35-0.93). Vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H3N2) was 49% (95% CI, 10%-71%) among children who received 2 doses and 20% (95% CI, −26% to 49%) in those who received 1 dose. Sample sizes were small and 95% CIs were wide for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B.

Table 3. Vaccine Effectiveness of Inactivated Influenza Vaccine Among Children Aged ≤2 Years Who Were Unvaccinated Prior to Current Season.

Influenza (sub)type, vaccination in current season No. Influenza positive, No. (%) VE, % (95% CI)
Unadjusted Adjusteda
Any Influenza
≥1 Dose 794 94 (12) 42 (22 to 57) 38 (15 to 55)
1 Dose 363 54 (15) 25 (−6 to 47) 23 (−11 to 47)
2 Doses 431 40 (9) 56 (36 to 70) 53 (28 to 70)
Unvaccinated 725 137 (19) 1 [Reference] 1 [Reference]
Influenza A(H3N2)b
≥1 Dose 595 56 (9) 45 (21 to 62) 33 (−1 to 55)
1 Dose 286 34 (12) 29 (−9 to 54) 20 (−26 to 49)
2 Doses 309 22 (7) 59 (34 to 75) 49 (10 to 71)
Unvaccinated 521 83 (16) 1 [Reference] 1 [Reference]
Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09c
≥1 Dose 343 20 (6) 20 (−50 to 57) 31 (−33 to 65)
1 Dose 156 11 (7) 2 (−108 to 54) −2 (−118 to 52)
2 Doses 187 9 (5) 34 (−46 to 70) Not reportedd
Unvaccinated 307 22 (7) 1 [Reference] 1 [Reference]
Influenza B
≥1 Dose 715 15 (2) 50 (3 to 74) 47 (−7 to 74)
1 Dose 315 6 (2) 54 (−13 to 89) Not reportedd
2 Doses 400 9 (2) 46 (−18 to 75) Not reportedd
Unvaccinated 613 25 (4) 1 [Reference] 1 [Reference]

Abbreviation: VE, vaccine effectiveness.

a

Models adjusted for season, enrollment site, age in months, calendar time of enrollment, and presence of ≥1 high-risk medical condition.

b

A(H3N2) includes 2014-2015, 2016-2017, and 2017-2018 influenza seasons.

c

A(H1N1)pdm09 includes 2015-2016 and 2017-2018 influenza seasons.

d

Fewer than 10 cases reported.

The results of our sensitivity analyses were similar to our overall findings. However, in general, estimates were less precise owing to smaller sample sizes (eTable 3 in the Supplement).

Discussion

Combining 4 seasons of data from the US Flu VE Network, we evaluated the current ACIP influenza vaccination recommendations for children and identified several lines of evidence that appear to support the current recommendations. First, we detected higher VE against medically attended influenza in fully vaccinated children compared with partially vaccinated children. Among children recommended to receive 2 doses in the current season, the odds of influenza among fully vaccinated children were lower compared with the odds in partially vaccinated children. Second, VE was comparable between the various vaccine patterns constituting the fully vaccinated groups. Third, vaccination reduced the risk of medically attended influenza illness by 38% among children who were vaccinated for the first time. The risk of influenza was lower and VE was higher for young, previously unvaccinated children who received 2 doses in the current season (53%) vs 1 dose (23%).

The higher risk of infection resulting from underdeveloped immune and respiratory tract systems provides a reason to identify vaccination strategies focusing on this vulnerable population of younger children. Our study suggests a benefit of receiving 2 doses of inactivated influenza in the first season of vaccination as well as full vaccination as recommended by the ACIP. This finding is consistent with antibody immune response and limited observational studies of both outpatients and inpatients in the US and elsewhere.20,21,22,23,24,25 Among partially vaccinated children overall, we detected statistically significant VE, which has been reported in fewer studies.10,26,27 However, 1 dose of vaccine in the current season did not provide statistically significant protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza among the small proportion of previously unvaccinated children aged 2 years or younger. Compared with older children, young children, even if healthy, are at an elevated risk of influenza infection and influenza-associated complications, such as hospitalization.28,29 One recent simulation study reported that even small improvements in either vaccine coverage or VE, and ideally both, may avert substantial amounts of influenza-associated illnesses, medical visits, and hospitalizations.30

Approximately half (48%) of children were documented as being vaccinated in the current season. This level of coverage is consistent with national estimates since the 2013-2014 influenza season of 40% to 60%.31 Coverage in the US, including the proportion considered partially vaccinated, has remained stable in recent seasons. About half of the children received 2 documented doses in their first season, and most were primed with at least 1 dose of influenza vaccine before age 2 years. However, our results suggest that older children (aged 5-8 years) who are receiving influenza vaccine for the first time are less likely to receive the recommended 2 doses compared with younger children. Improving overall coverage, and particularly 2-dose influenza vaccination adherence, in this vulnerable age group may improve child health with commensurate savings in hospital and indirect costs.32,33,34

It was uncommon for children with 1 documented previous dose to receive 2 doses in the current season; most children with 1 documented previous dose received only 1 dose of inactivated influenza vaccine in the current season. Reasons why partially vaccinated children did not receive 2 doses within a season as recommended are unclear. Nevertheless, we observed statistically significant VE in this partially vaccinated group that was comparable with other fully vaccinated groups, which has not been consistently observed in all observational studies. Outside the US and during some US influenza seasons (eg, 2014-2015, when the vaccine composition was identical in the previous season), these children might be considered fully vaccinated.35,36,37,38 Some studies have reported significant vaccine protection only among fully vaccinated children.20,21,22,23,24 Differences in criteria for fully and partially vaccinated children might somewhat explain the variation in VE by these policy definitions reported from observational studies. Age is likely an important factor; in our study, vaccination with 1 dose in the current season was not protective among previously unvaccinated children aged 2 years or younger. Additional reasons may include differences in the comparison or control group across studies and potential effect modification by prior vaccination history.

Limitations

This study has limitations. It is possible that some influenza vaccine doses were missing from records that we included, which would lead to an underestimate of the number of fully vaccinated children. However, the results were similar in a sensitivity analysis restricted to children with records in the enrolling medical system back to their year of birth. Until the 2018-2019 influenza season, the only licensed influenza vaccine in the US for children aged 3 years or younger was a half-dose product. Vaccine effectiveness may differ in children first vaccinated with 1 full-dose vaccine, which we were unable to examine.39 Likewise, we were unable to stratify by type of first vaccine because few children initially received live attenuated influenza vaccine.

While we compared VE across 4 seasons, sample sizes were relatively small, and we were underpowered to detect moderate VE in subtype-specific analyses. Our data on any influenza virus were largely driven by influenza A(H3N2) circulation during the study years, with some influenza B and little influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. We lacked information on previous influenza infections. However, since most vaccinated children in our study were first vaccinated before age 2 years, it is plausible that many children were vaccinated before exposure to influenza virus.6 It is unknown how initial exposure to natural infection differs from priming with influenza vaccine. In addition, we cannot rule out the potential for unmeasured or residual confounding since children who received the recommended number of doses may have different care-seeking behavior compared with children who did not. Children who receive medical care for acute respiratory tract virus infection may have different vaccination histories than children in the general population. Observational studies may be limited in their ability to examine VE among persons with varied immunization histories, but we controlled for age as a proxy for number of vaccinations received.

Conclusions

Consistent with current US influenza vaccine recommendations, our findings suggest protection against influenza for fully vaccinated children who received inactivated influenza vaccine, with higher effectiveness for 2 doses among previously unvaccinated children aged 2 years or younger. Promoting efforts to improve influenza vaccine coverage—particularly with 2 doses in the first vaccination season—may reduce the burden of influenza illness among young children, who are particularly vulnerable to complications and death from influenza infection.

Supplement.

eTable 1. Periods of Enrollment by Season

eTable 2. Excluded Patients by Enrollment Season and Reason for Exclusion

eTable 3. Results From Sensitivity Analysis Excluding Patients Enrolled in 2014–15 Influenza Season. Adjusted VE Against any Influenza Among Children Aged ≤2 Years Who Were First Vaccinated in the Enrollment Season

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Associated Data

This section collects any data citations, data availability statements, or supplementary materials included in this article.

Supplementary Materials

Supplement.

eTable 1. Periods of Enrollment by Season

eTable 2. Excluded Patients by Enrollment Season and Reason for Exclusion

eTable 3. Results From Sensitivity Analysis Excluding Patients Enrolled in 2014–15 Influenza Season. Adjusted VE Against any Influenza Among Children Aged ≤2 Years Who Were First Vaccinated in the Enrollment Season


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