Table A.2.
Summary of parameters and their interpretation. All time rate constants are in units of day − 1. Parameters are known from previous studies, set for each scenario, or calibrated to match the model to past outbreaks.
Parameter | Interpretation | Type | Range and Sources, if available |
---|---|---|---|
b0 | Core transmission rate | Calibrated | See section on model calibration |
bh | Relative contact rate during weekends | Calibrated | 0 to 0.5, comparable to school closure in [18] |
bc | Relative contact rate during closures, holidays or vacations | Calibrated | Generally lying around 0 to 0.5 comparable to school closure in [18] |
bs | Relative seasonal amplitude of contact | Calibrated | |
ci, j | Relative contact rate for cohorts i and j | Input data or calibrated | Sometimes estimated from locations of cohorts in a building |
L | Symptomatic rate | Input data | 0.88 [59], 0.5 and 0.88 for COVID-19 |
p | Fraction of persons complying with policy | Calibrated | Quantifies compliance with the policy |
rd | Fraction of persons return to cohort on day d after infection | Based on symptom data | See table below |
sd | Shedding at day d (relative) | Input data or estimates | Proportional to log 10 titers [14] |
tstart | Day of first infected case | Input data or calibration | Often reported approximately in post-outbreak investigations |
v | Vaccination rate (seasonal virus) | Set during scenarios | Season flu: 60% [0.5, 0.7] [60], 0% in novel infections |
ve | Vaccine efficacy (seasonal vims) | 67% [0.65, 0.95] | [61,62] For novel infections with no immune response, 0% |
Xi | Persons in cohort i | Set by scenario | Cohort is partitioned into fraction vve with vaccine protection and the rest |
y | Fever attention | Calibrated | Fraction of persons who would return from home, of those having symptoms on the previous day |