Figure 2: Surveillance testing affects disease dynamics.

Both the fully-mixed compartmental model (top row) and agent based model (bottom row) are affected by surveillance programs. (A, B) More frequent testing reduces the effective reproductive number R, shown as the percentage by which R₀ is reduced, 100 × (R₀ – R)/R₀. Values of R were estimated from 50 independent simulations of dynamics (see Methods). (C, D) Relative to no testing (grey bars), surveillance suppresses the total number of infections in both models when testing every day or every three days, but only partially mitigates total cases for weekly or bi-weekly testing. Error bars indicate inner 95% quantiles of 50 independent simulations each.