Clinical Trial Generalizability Assessment in the Big Data Era: A Review

Abstract

Clinical studies, especially randomized, controlled trials, are essential for generating evidence for clinical practice. However, generalizability is a long‐standing concern when applying trial results to real‐world patients. Generalizability assessment is thus important, nevertheless, not consistently practiced. We performed a systematic review to understand the practice of generalizability assessment. We identified 187 relevant articles and systematically organized these studies in a taxonomy with three dimensions: (i) data availability (i.e., before or after trial (a priori vs. a posteriori generalizability)); (ii) result outputs (i.e., score vs. nonscore); and (iii) populations of interest. We further reported disease areas, underrepresented subgroups, and types of data used to profile target populations. We observed an increasing trend of generalizability assessments, but < 30% of studies reported positive generalizability results. As a priori generalizability can be assessed using only study design information (primarily eligibility criteria), it gives investigators a golden opportunity to adjust the study design before the trial starts. Nevertheless, < 40% of the studies in our review assessed a priori generalizability. With the wide adoption of electronic health records systems, rich real‐world patient databases are increasingly available for generalizability assessment; however, informatics tools are lacking to support the adoption of generalizability assessment practice.

Appropriately designed clinical research studies, especially randomized, controlled trials (RCTs), provide “gold‐standard” evidence for determining the efficacy and safety of medical interventions,1 allowing regulatory agencies to approve new therapies and care providers to make better clinical decisions. Nevertheless, trial investigators and sponsors often overemphasize the internal validity (i.e., “the extent to which observed treatment effects can be ascribed to differences in treatment and not confounding, thereby allowing the inference of causality to be ascribed to a treatment”2) of a study—rightfully to protect participants from undue harm and to collect sufficient efficacy information.3 Typically excluded are pregnant women due to concern for fetal health4 and patients with concomitant diseases to avoid noise in safety data.5 However, overemphasis on internal validity can lead to exclusion of certain population subgroups and, subsequently, poor generalizability.6 Unjustified exclusion of diverse and complex participants in clinical trials may undermine safety for patients who will use the drug in real‐world settings.5 Because of generalizability issues many approved drugs had been withdrawn from the market after severe adverse drug reactions (e.g., high toxicity, organ damage, and fatalities) were observed.7

The notions of generalizability and population representativeness are distinct but closely related. In clinical trials, three essential populations of interest exist: (i) the target population (TP)—patients to whom the study results are intended to be applied in real‐world patients; (ii) the study population (SP)—patients who are eligible for the study (based on study inclusion/exclusion criteria); and (iii) the study sample (SS)—participants who are enrolled in the clinical study. Generalizability is the ultimate portability of the causal effects of an intervention (developed based on the SS) to the TP. Population representativeness—measuring the SP’s coverage of the TP—is a key determining factor for generalizability. Other factors, such as variation of patients in different clinical settings, discrepancies in conditions under which a trial is conducted,8 and incomplete reporting,9 may also affect study generalizability. Further, many real‐world constraints, such as trial awareness10 and transportation,11 can also affect participant enrollment. Thus, the SS may not adequately represent the SP and, subsequently, the TP.

In this review we focus on “population representativeness,” and thus use the terms “population representativeness,” “external validity,” and “generalizability” interchangeably, omitting other extrinsic factors. A commonly used simplistic approach to assess generalizability is to assess the differences in patient characteristics between the study sample and the target population (i.e., patients who received the same treatment in routine care). Increasingly, approaches that compare the outcomes of patients from observational cohorts with participants in the original trials12 were developed to evaluate study generalizability. However, these comparisons can only be made after trial completion. More recently, another type of generalizability assessment method has emerged—making population comparisons based on data from study eligibility criteria and from observational cohorts generated through standard of care (e.g., electronic health records (EHRs)).13 For example, one can compare eligible patients from an observational cohort (e.g., trial patients with stage IV colorectal cancer) with the target population of the study (e.g., all patients with stage IV colorectal cancer).

Generalizability assessment methods can be organized into two major categories based on whether the assessment data are available before or after trial completion: (i) the a priori (also called eligibility‐driven) generalizability—the representativeness of eligible (study population) to the target population; and (ii) the a posteriori (or sample‐driven) generalizability—the representativeness of enrolled participants (study sample) to the target population.

Although study generalizability is well‐recognized, there is a significant knowledge gap between the methods and data available for generalizability assessment and their adoption in practice. To understand this gap, we performed a systematic review, identifying barriers and opportunities in clinical study generalizability assessment practice. To the best of our knowledge, only one previous review on generalizability was published―in 2015, before the emergence of quantitative, often informatics‐based, a priori generalizability studies.14 Further, our ultimate goal is to develop a decision tool to guide investigators on how to choose proper generalizability assessment methods for their clinical studies. Based on our review, we created a taxonomy that synthesizes existing generalizability assessment methods to inform the development of a decision guide. We also argue that, given the increasing availability of large‐scale clinical data and advancements in informatics methods such as computable phenotypes, informaticians have an opportunity to develop novel generalizability assessment methods that could optimize patient selection in the study design phase.

IDENTIFICATION OF AVAILABLE INFORMATION

We performed a literature search over the following four databases: MEDLINE, Cochrane, PychINFO, and CINAHL. Following the Institute of Medicine’s standards for systematic review15 and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta‐Analyses (PRISMA),16 we conducted the review in six steps: (i) gaining an initial understanding about generalizability assessment and related concepts; (ii) identifying relevant keywords; (iii) formulating four search queries (see Table S1 in Supplementary File I) to identify relevant articles; (iv) screening through titles and abstracts; (v) reviewing articles’ full text to further filter out irrelevant articles; and (vi) coding the articles for data extraction.

Study selection and screening process

We used an iterative process to identify and refine the search keywords and strategies. Using the search strategies in Table S1, we identified 5,352 articles as of April 2019. After removing duplicates, 3,568 records were assessed for relevancy by two researchers (Z.H. and X.T.) through reviewing the titles and abstracts against the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Conflicts were resolved with a third reviewer (J.B.). During the screening process, we also iteratively refined the criteria (Table 1 ). Of the 3,568 articles, 3,275 were excluded through the abstract screening process. Subsequently, we reviewed the full texts of 293 articles, excluding 106 more articles based on the exclusion criteria. The interrater reliability of the full‐text review is 0.90 (Cohen’s kappa, P < 0.001).17 One hundred eighty‐seven articles were included in the final review. Figure 1 is the PRISMA flow diagram that depicts the number of articles identified, included, and excluded, and the reasons for exclusions.

Table 1.

Inclusion and exclusion criteria for articles

Type	Criteria
Inclusion criteria	Articles about generalizability assessment of clinical trial(s) on a specific treatment (e.g., medication, device, or medical procedure)
	Articles must compare the study sample or eligible patients with the patients not in trials
Exclusion criteria	Conference abstracts or nonresearch articles
	Articles about assessing the external validity of screening tools, rating scales, scores, prediction models, etc.
	Articles about the recruitment process of a trial or multiple trials (including certain systematic review articles)
	Articles about the use of eligibility criteria of a trial or multiple trials (including certain systematic review articles)
	Articles about the setting of a trial or multiple trials (e.g., hospital size)
	Articles that promised to consider external validity in future work
	Articles that responded to another article
	Articles that considered outcomes that are not health‐related

Figure 1.

The PRISMA flow diagram of the review. PRISMA, Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta‐Analyses.

Data extraction and reporting

We coded and extracted data from the 187 eligible articles according to the following aspects: (i) whether the study performed an a priori or a posteriori generalizability assessment, or both; (ii) the compared populations and the conclusions of the assessment; (iii) the result outputs (e.g., generalizability scores, descriptive comparison); (iv) the focused disease; (v) the focused population subgroup (e.g., elderly); (vi) the types of the real‐world data (RWD) used to profile the target population (i.e., trial data, hospital data, regional data, national data, and international data). Note that trial data can also be regional, national, or even international, depending on the scale of the trial. Regardless, we considered them in the category of “trial data” as the study population of a trial is typically small compared with observational cohorts or RWD. For observational cohorts or RWD (e.g., EHRs), we extracted the scale of the databases (i.e., single hospital, regional, national, and international). For studies that compared characteristics of different populations to indicate generalizability issues, we further coded the populations that were compared (e.g., enrolled patients, eligible patients, general population, ineligible patients), and the types of characteristics that were compared (i.e., demographic information, clinical attributes and comorbidities, outcomes, and adverse events). We then used Fisher’s exact test to assess whether there is a difference in the types of characteristics between a priori and a posteriori generalizability assessment studies.

INTERPRETATION OF AVAILABLE INFORMATION

Categorization and characteristics of generalizability assessment studies

As shown in Figure 2 , there was an increasing number of generalizability assessment studies from 1985 to April 2019.

Figure 2.

The numbers of generalizability assessment studies from 1985 to April 2019.

Among the 187 articles, only 14 are methods articles, of which 12 studies have evaluated the proposed methods and applied them to specific clinical trials as examples, whereas the other 2 used simulated data to demonstrate their utility. See the tab “Methods Papers” in Data Set 1 for details.

Figure 3 shows a taxonomy that synthesizes existing generalizability assessment methods. We defined three major dimensions: (i) time perspective corresponding to data availability; (ii) output (i.e., score vs. nonscore) of the generalizability assessment results; and (iii) populations of interest. Figure 3 a,b lists the different types of populations being compared in a priori and a posteriori generalizability assessments, respectively. Table 2 shows the number of articles along with references of representative articles for each type of the method. Note that “Post‐hoc generalization” should be considered as a subtype of the a posteriori method in which statistical methods were applied to generalize the results of a clinical trial to the broader target population. For example, Westreich et al. 18 proposed a method that uses an inverse odds weighting approach to estimate the treatment effect of the trial results in the target population. Complete information about the 187 included articles is shown in Data Set 1.

Figure 3.

A taxonomy of generalizability assessment methods. Boxes (a) and (b) list the different types of populations compared in a priori and a posteriori generalizability assessment articles, respectively.

Table 2.

Categorization of generalizability assessment methods

Axis	Item	Number of publications (N = 187)	Example article
Types of methods	A priori	57	Zimmerman et al. 13
	A posteriori	113 a	Cahan et al. 34
	Post hoc generalization b	4	Cole et al. 20
	A priori/a posteriori	17	Lane et al. 67
Output of results	Score	9	Weng et al. 25
	Nonscore	178	Westreich et al. 18

^aIncluding the four post hoc generalization studies.

^b Post hoc generalization: studies that applied methods to generalize a trial’s results to the broader target population (e.g., estimate the treatment effect in the target population with the trial results without recruiting and collecting more participant data).

Time perspective of generalizability assessment in terms of data availability

Of the 187 studies, 57 (30.5%) assessed a priori generalizability, 109 (58.3%) assessed a posteriori generalizability, and 17 (9.1%) assessed both a priori and a posteriori generalizability. Among the 109 a posteriori studies, 17 used propensity scores or other weighting methods to weight the study population while reducing the randomization bias, and then compared the characteristics of the weighted study population with the target population.19 Four studies fall into the post hoc generalization category that investigated how the results can be generalized to the target populations.18, 20, 21, 22 Figure 4 shows the increasing trends of both a priori and a posteriori generalizability assessment studies in the past 30 years. Before 2015, there were slightly more studies on assessing a posteriori generalizability than a priori generalizability and this difference became more significant after 2015.

Figure 4.

The yearly trend of generalizability assessment publications by methods in terms of data availability.

Comparisons of populations in generalizability assessment studies

Among the 187 studies, 144 (77.0%) compared the enrolled or eligible patients with observational data collected in routine care. The a priori generalizability studies compared eligible patients (by applying the eligibility criteria on a patient database) with: (i) ineligible patients (N = 21); (ii) potentially eligible patients (N = 1); (iii) the general population (N = 9); or (iv) eligible patients in other trials (N = 1). The a posteriori generalizability studies compared trial participants with: (i) nonparticipants (those who do not meet exclusion criteria of a trial or those who were eligible for a trial but not randomized) (N = 46); (ii) the general population (N = 55); (iii) eligible patients (N = 17); (iv) ineligible patients (N = 4); or (v) participants in other trials (N = 12). One a posteriori generalizability study compared the different participant subgroups in a trial.23 In general, we excluded studies that merely compared the patients in different arms of a single trial; nevertheless, this study was included as it used broad inclusion and minimal exclusion criteria to evaluate whether phase III clinical trials can recruit representative depressed outpatients.23 Table 3 shows the number of generalizability studies by different combinations of compared study‐vs.‐target population types as well as the types of patient information (e.g., demographics, clinical outcomes) that were compared. Among the 144 studies, 94.4% (N = 136) compared populations’ demographics; 81.3% (N = 117) compared clinical characteristics; 44.4% (N = 64) compared treatment outcomes; and very few (4.9%, N = 7) compared adverse events. The result of Fisher’s exact test (see Table S2 in Supplementary File I) shows that a posteriori generalizability studies were more likely to compare demographic information than a priori generalizability studies. With respect to the conclusions about the generalizability of the evaluated trials, 29.4% (N = 55) concluded that the trials are generalizable, 59.4% (N = 111) concluded that they are not generalizable, and 11.2% (N = 21) reported mixed or neutral results in which parts of the analysis indicated good generalizability, whereas the other parts did not.

Table 3.

Studies comparing a study population with a target population

Combinations of study population and compared target population		Numbers of articles (N = 144)	Compared patient information				Example article
			Demographic information (N = 136, 94.4%)	Clinical characteristics (N = 117, 81.3%)	Outcomes (N = 64, 44.4%)	Adverse events (N = 7, 4.9%)
Trial participants	Nonparticipants (excluded by the trial, or eligible but nonrandomized)	46	46	37	23	3	Agweyu et al. 41
Trial participants	General population	55	54	42	23	1	McClure et al. 68
Trial participants	Eligible patients (by applying eligibility criteria on the patient data)	17	16	16	6	1	Arora et al. 53
Trial participants	Ineligible patients (by applying criteria on the general population)	4	4	3	2	0	Laskay et al. 48
Trial participants	Participants in other trials	12	12	10	5	1	Laffin et al. 69
A subgroup of trial participants	Trial participants of the same trial but in other subgroups	1	1	1	1	0	Wisniewski et al. 23
Eligible patients	Ineligible patients (by applying criteria on the general population	21	17	17	11	0	Saeed et al. 31
Eligible patients	Potentially eligible patients	1	1	1	0	0	Malatestinic et al. 70
Eligible patients	Eligible patients in other trials	1	0	1	0	0	Fortin et al. 71
Eligible patients	General population	9	9	9	1	1	Weng et al. 25

Output of generalizability assessment results

Only nine studies used a score to quantify the generalizability of a trial or trial set. Among 74 a priori generalizability studies, only five analyzed generalizability with score‐based methods. Most score‐based a priori generalizability assessment methods were developed by informaticians.24 These informatics‐based a priori methods, such as the Generalizability Index for Study Trait (GIST),25 mGIST,26 and GIST 2.0,27 aimed to quantify the population representativeness of trials using the trial’s eligibility criteria combined with the target population’s demographic and clinical characteristics corresponding to those criteria. For example, the GIST score quantifies the population representativeness of multiple studies with respect to a single study criterion.25 It is the sum across all consecutive non‐overlapping value intervals of the percentage of studies that recruit patients in that interval, multiplied by the percentage of patients observed in that interval. mGIST extended GIST to a multivariate setting by creating combinations of non‐overlapping value intervals of multiple study criteria.26 However, mGIST did not consider the importance of each variable in terms of its restrictiveness for patient selection; thus, GIST 2.0 assigns weights corresponding to variable importance to assess the population representativeness of a trial with respect to either a single study trait (sGIST) or multiple study traits (mGIST 2.0).27 Previously, Sen et al. have demonstrated the correlation between GIST 2.0 and the adverse events of the patients enrolled in clinical trials28. Nevertheless, these methods could be further validated to show the strong correlation between generalizability scores with the outcomes of patients in the target population (e.g., treatment outcomes, adverse events).

Of 74 a priori generalizability studies, 69 are non‒score‐based with two major types: (i) studies that applied a standard set of eligibility criteria representative of clinical trials on a disease and assess how many patients in a database would fulfill typical eligibility criteria29; and (ii) studies that descriptively compared the demographic and/or clinical characteristics between eligible patients and a target population (e.g., general population in routine care,30 and ineligible patients31).

There are 122 studies that utilized non‒score‐based a posteriori methods,. For example, Susukida et al. 32 assessed the difference in the mean propensity scores to compare the differences between the study sample and the target population. Moore et al. 33 compared the demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)‒infected participants in two antiretroviral trials and eligible patients. The non‒score‐based a posteriori or a priori methods that only descriptively compare demographic data between different cohorts lack rigorous validation that associates the measured generalizability with outcomes in the target populations.

Very few (N = 4) score‐based a posteriori methods exist. Cahan et al. 34 proposed a framework to produce a “generalizability score” that quantifies the relative difference of a demographic or clinical attribute between the enrolled patients in different trials (i.e., the difference of an attribute is the ratio between the attribute values in the two compared studies). Stuart et al. 35 used a propensity‐score‒based metric to quantify the similarity between the participants in a RCT and the target population. It weights the control group outcomes and assesses how well the propensity‐score‒adjusted outcomes track the outcomes observed in the target population. Susukida et al. 36 used the pooled difference in the mean propensity scores between the RCTs and the target population to quantify the population representativeness of RCTs. Table S3 in Supplementary File I shows these examples with more detailed information about their methods.

Disease areas of generalizability assessment

Generalizability assessments have been conducted on trials of various disease areas, including cancer (N = 35; e.g., Sam et al. 37), cardiovascular diseases (N = 34; e.g., Patel et al. 38), mental diseases (N = 33; e.g., Zimmerman et al. 13), musculoskeletal diseases (N = 8; e.g., Becker et al. 39), HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (N = 6; e.g., Saeed et al. 31), endocrine diseases (N = 6; e.g., Wittbrodt et al. 40), drug or alcohol abuse (N = 6; e.g., Susukida et al. 36), respiratory diseases (N = 5; e.g., Agweyu et al. 41), and smoking (N = 5; Susukida et al. 12), surgery (N = 3; e.g., Fischer et al. 42), ear diseases (N = 3; e.g., Rovers et al. 43), digestive disease (N = 3; Millard et al. 44), sleep disorders (N = 3; Huls et al. 45), skin diseases (N = 3; Yiu et al. 46), pain (N = 2; de C Williams et al. 47), and other diseases (N = 11; e.g., Laskay et al. 48). 21 articles did not specifically focus on a particular disease (e.g., Hong et al. 49).

Data sources used to define target populations

Figure 5 depicts the trends of the different types of data used for profiling the target population in generalizability studies. “Trial‐data” are data from patients considered for trials (but not enrolled); “Hospital‐data” indicate that the patient data were from small group (i.e., 1–3) of hospitals; and “region‐/national‐/international‐levels” refer to the scale of the hospital/registry/survey data. It is evident that hospital data, national (e.g., Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data,50 National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey,40 UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink49), and international data (e.g., Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events51) have been used more frequently over time.

Figure 5.

Trends of the data source types used for profiling the target populations.

Focused population subgroups

Of the 187 studies, 28 (15%) studies focused on the underrepresentation of specific population subgroups: children (N = 8); elderly (N = 12); gender (N = 9); and ethnic minorities (N = 6). The elderly population is the most studied underrepresented subgroup. Note that some studies discussed more than one subgroup. For example, Heiat et al. 52 analyzed the enrolled patients in 59 heart failure clinical trials and found that older adults and female and nonwhite patients were underrepresented in these trials.

IMPLICATIONS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

Over the past 2 decades, an increasing number of studies have assessed the generalizability of clinical trials, especially after 2015. Although the literature on generalizability assessment and associated methods is abundant, our review has been shown that it is poorly organized and there is little agreement on analytic procedures.

Among the studies we reviewed, most generalizability assessments were conducted a posteriori rather than a priori, hence could only discover generalizability issues after the completion of a trial, missing the opportunity for early detection and correction of sampling procedures. In addition, we found that most generalizability assessments are shallow: (i) in a priori generalizability studies, researchers often apply the study eligibility criteria on a patient database (e.g., EHRs from a hospital) to identify the study population and compare patient demographics, clinical characteristics, and outcomes between the study population and a target population; and (ii) in a posteriori generalizability studies, researchers make comparisons of different types of patient characteristics between the enrolled patients and a target population. In a few studies,46 researchers first used the propensity score or other weighting mechanisms to reduce the bias of randomization of patients into intervention arms or control arms and then compared the weighted study population with the target population. We also observed that, for the 144 studies (see Table 3 ) that compared enrolled patients or eligible patients with observational data collected in routine care, only 7 (4.9%) compared the adverse events between these populations, leaving an important gap to fill in future generalizability assessments.

Score‐based generalizability assessment methods are scarce in both a priori (N = 5) and a posteriori (N = 4) studies, representing a lost opportunity to quantify a study’s generalizability. For example, a score‐based a priori generalizability method can yield actionable knowledge to help investigators adjust the eligibility criteria toward improved population representativeness (i.e., a higher generalizability score), while balancing the trial’s internal validity, before the trial starts enrollment.

Not surprisingly, we observed that there is no universal definition of the “target population,” due in part to the evolving nature of treatment development (e.g., drug repurposing), but also to the lack of consensus on the applicability of a trial. In fact, specifying the target population is difficult not only in generalizability assessment but also in clinical practice. Regulatory agencies (e.g., the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)) typically only approve a treatment agent with an indication that its use is restricted to the study population tested in the trials; nonetheless, “off‐label” use of the agent is very common. Because it is virtually impossible to assess the data for all potential patients in the target population, generalizability assessment studies mostly use a convenience sample (e.g., patients with a specific condition in an observational database) to approximate the target population. Traditionally, researchers compare characteristics between the enrolled patients with the eligible but nonrandomized patients,53 so they are limited to studying patients who are geographically close to the study site. In recent years, we observed an increasing trend toward using large‐scale, national and international data sets to identify the target population when assessing study generalizability. With the wide adoption of EHR systems, secondary use of hospital data has increased tremendously.54 With more observational real‐world data (e.g., data from the Patient‐Centered Clinical Research Network (PCORnet)55) becoming readily available, we anticipate that both a priori and a posteriori generalizability assessment will become de facto processes in trial design and conduct.

In this review we also found that no study has investigated the trade‐off between clinical trial generalizability (external validity) and internal validity. As this is a critical problem in clinical research, we hope that this work can encourage the research community to design novel approaches to afford balance to this issue. Such work may need to account for study‐specific methodology as well as the primary end point of the trial. Internal validity may be a higher priority than generalizability in early‐phase studies where determination of dose‐limiting toxicities is the primary objective.

Importance of a priori generalizability assessment in eligibility criteria design process

Conventionally, the eligibility criteria design of a trial depends on investigators’ empirical knowledge of the disease, drug, and the trial. Frequently, criteria are adopted from previous similar protocols without due consideration of the differing drug effects or patient populations,3 leading to propagation of difficult‐to‐justify criteria.56 Van Spall et al. 57 reviewed 283 RCTs between 1994 and 2006 and reported that 37% of the trials’ eligibility criteria were poorly justified, and 84% of the trials had at least one poorly justified exclusion criterion. Poorly justified and unnecessarily restrictive criteria limit patients’ access to trials and lead to low study accrual rates,58 resulting in studies that fail to be completed59 or fail to capture the heterogeneity of the target population (e.g., leading to unintended serious adverse events after the approval of the treatments3). In particular, people aged ≥ 65 years are still significantly underrepresented in drug trials, especially cancer trials.60 Conducting a priori generalizability assessment during trial design can be beneficial because eligibility criteria can then be appropriately and objectively adjusted (i.e., with the a priori generalizability score) to include a diverse population in the trial before it is conducted.

Nevertheless, there are a number of barriers to adopting a priori generalizability assessments, such as: (i) although some informatics‐based methods such as GIST 2.0,27 have been validated against adverse events extracted from results of clinical trial enrolled patients28, we think it is important to further validate them against real‐world patient outcomes and adverse events in the target populations; (ii) the lack of readily available, well‐vetted statistical and informatics tools; and (iii) the knowledge gap in best practice for generalizability assessment. Further, there is a tacit belief that traditional standards—making eligibility criteria unnecessarily restrictive—need to be maintained for fear of exposing trial patients to harm and rejection by regulatory and safety monitoring bodies.5 Thus, trial investigators do not necessarily feel empowered to modify these criteria in the absence of data or a directive to do so.

Informatics’ opportunities for a priori generalizability assessments

Streamlining a priori generalizability assessment requires automated cohort discovery from RWD, such as EHRs. Recently, significant national efforts have started building tools and algorithms to support cohort discovery for clinical trials. For example, the i2b2 (Informatics for Integrating Biology and the Bedside)61 cohort discovery tool is widely deployed and used, and the CALYPSO62 tool based on the OMOP (Observational Medical Outcome Partnership) Common Data Model (CDM) is also emerging. Nevertheless, these tools require investigators to manually translate eligibility criteria into cohort discovery queries, posing a significant barrier. Automated generalizability assessment requires computable phenotypes.63 With a computable eligibility criteria (CEC) infrastructure,64 the study population of a trial can be readily identified and compared with the target population.

Making eligibility criteria computable is nontrivial. One approach is to parse free‐text eligibility criteria using advanced natural language processing (NLP) methods and then transforming them into executable database queries. For example, Critera2Query was developed to transform free‐text criteria into OMOP CDM‐based database queries.65 However, the complexity of eligibility criteria makes it difficult for NLP to achieve optimal results. The performance of two important NLP tasks—entity recognition and relation extraction—in Criteria2Query is suboptimal (i.e., an F1 score of 0.795 and 0.805, respectively).65 A second approach, including our own prior work,64 has connected eligibility criteria to underlying clinical databases via ontologies and made them computable through ontology‐based data access frameworks. Use of ontology creates a shared, controlled vocabulary of eligibility criteria and standardizes the definitions of data elements, making data understandable to both humans and computers. Although parsing eligibility criteria and standardizing study traits is still largely a manual process in this exploratory phase, it yields much better quality in terms of accuracy in representing eligibility criteria as well as better performance in terms of precision and recall in retrieving cohorts accurately. Nevertheless, as NLP methods advance, there are opportunities to adapt NLP techniques to automate the process to make it more scalable or employ a hybrid approach that increases both accuracy and scalability.

Rather than parsing free‐text eligibility criteria after the fact, adopting a CEC‐based criteria authoring tool during the trial design phase may be more efficient. Equipped with CEC and readily accessible large, real‐world data sets, the tool could be developed to assist trial designs by providing real‐time cohort discovery and a priori generalizability assessment services. As such, eligibility criteria can be fine‐tuned and adequately adjusted to improve trial generalizability during the design phase.

In this review, we have found that existing informatics‐based generalizability assessment methods such as GIST,25 mGIST,26 and GIST 2.027 should be further validated. Their correlations with patient outcomes in real‐world populations should be systematically evaluated by informaticians. In addition, an open‐source, publicly available toolbox with clear documentation and a guideline should be developed to aid researchers in choosing appropriate methods to assess their studies’ generalizability.

In conclusion, we have systematically organized generalizability assessment methods in a taxonomy consisting of three dimensions: (i) data availability (a priori vs. a posteriori); (ii) results output (score vs. nonscore); and (iii) populations (e.g., enrolled patients, eligible patients). We observed an increasing trend of generalizability assessment of clinical trials over the past 3 decades. With the wide adoption of EHR systems in the past few years, large‐scale, real‐world patient data are becoming increasingly promoted (e.g., the FDA's recent effort on the use of real‐word data66) and available, making generalizability assessment of trials more feasible than ever. However, software tools and packages are still lacking and are not readily available for generalizability assessment. Further, as a priori generalizability can be assessed using only study design information (primarily eligibility criteria), it gives investigators a golden opportunity to adjust the study design before the trial starts. Nevertheless, < 40% of studies in our review assessed a priori generalizability. Research culture and regulatory policy adaptation are also needed to change the practice of trial design (e.g., relaxing restrictive eligibility criteria) toward better trial generalizability.

Funding.

This study was supported primarily by the National Institute on Aging of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) under Award Number R21AG061431; and in part by NIH Award UL1TR001427. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the NIH.

Conflict of Interest.

The authors declared no competing interests for this work.

Data Availability Statement.

The Excel spreadsheet with all the coded data of the 187 included papers has been submitted with the manuscript (Data Set 1). This file has also been deposited to datadryad.org.

Supporting information

Supplementary File I. Table S1. Search strategies used for the database searches; Table S2. Comparison of patient information (demographic information, clinical characteristics, adverse events, and outcomes) in a posteriori and a priori generalizability assessment articles. Table S3. Examples of a priori and a posteriori generalizability assessment articles.

Data.Generalizability assessment papers included in this review.