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The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism logoLink to The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism
. 2020 Jul 2;105(9):e3348–e3354. doi: 10.1210/clinem/dgaa429

Estrone Is a Strong Predictor of Circulating Estradiol in Women Age 70 Years and Older

Susan R Davis 1,, Alejandra Martinez-Garcia 1,2, Penelope J Robinson 1, David J Handelsman 3, Reena Desai 3, Rory Wolfe 4, Robin J Bell 1; ASPREE Investigator Group2
PMCID: PMC7394338  PMID: 32614391

Abstract

Importance

After menopause, estradiol (E2) is predominately an intracrine hormone circulating in very low serum concentrations.

Objective

The objective of this work is to examine determinants of E2 concentrations in women beyond age 70 years.

Design and Setting

A cross-sectional, community-based study was conducted.

Participants

A total of 5325 women participated, with a mean age of 75.1 years (± 4.2 years) and not using any sex steroid, antiandrogen/estrogen, glucocorticoid, or antiglycemic therapy.

Main Outcome Measures

Sex steroids were measured by liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Values below the limit of detection (LOD; E2 11 pmol/L [3 pg/mL] were assigned a value of LOD/√2 to estimate total E2.

Results

E2 and estrone (E1) were below the LOD in 66.1% and 0.9% of women, respectively. The median (interdecile ranges) for E1 and detectable E2 were 181.2 pmol/L (range, 88.7-347.6 pmol/L) and 22.0 pmol/L (range, 11.0-58.7 pmol/L). Women with undetectable E2 vs detectable E2 were older (median age 74.1 years vs 73.8, P = .02), leaner (median body mass index [BMI] 26.8 kg/m2 vs 28.5, P < .001), and had lower E1, testosterone and DHEA concentrations (P < .001). A linear regression model, including age, BMI, E1, and testosterone, explained 20.9% of the variation in total E2, but explained only an additional 1.2% of variation over E1 alone. E1 and testosterone made significant contributions (r2 = 0.162, P < .001) in a model for the subset of women with detectable E2.

Conclusions

Our findings support E1 as a principal circulating estrogen and demonstrate a robust association between E1 and E2 concentrations in postmenopausal women. Taken together with prior evidence for associations between E1 and health outcomes, E1 should be included in studies examining associations between estrogen levels and health outcomes in postmenopausal women.

Keywords: estradiol, estrone, postmenopause


In premenopausal women, estradiol (E2), primarily produced by the ovaries, functions as a circulating hormone acting on distal target tissues. In contrast, following menopause, E2 is produced in extragonadal sites predominantly from adrenal precursors, where it acts locally, in a paracrine or intracrine manner (1, 2). Consequently, in postmenopausal women circulating E2 is from spillover from E2 made in peripheral tissues that has escaped local metabolism (1, 2). We recently reported that serum E2 was below 11 pmol/L (3 pg/mL) in two-thirds of community-dwelling women age 70 years and older (3). This is in line with other studies, of predominantly younger postmenopausal women, that have reported median E2 levels between 3 and 10.4 pg/mL (4-9). In contrast, serum estrone (E1) concentrations were similar to those found in healthy premenopausal women, although the significance of this is uncertain (5, 10, 11). The final precursors for E2 biosynthesis are testosterone (T) and E1, which in postmenopausal women are produced peripherally from the adrenal steroid dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA). To elucidate what best predicts serum E2 concentrations in older women, we have systematically examined the contributions of several factors that have previously been associated with E2 concentrations, namely age (3), body mass index (BMI) (12, 13), E114, DHEA (2, 15), and T (2, 16).

Methods

Study participants

The Sex Hormones in Older Women (SHOW) study comprised 6392 of the 9180 Australian women participants in the ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) study who provided biobank specimens at enrollment and consent to measurement of an array of biomarkers, including sex steroids. To be eligible for the ASPREE study, women were required to be age at least 70 years, not current regular aspirin users, and free of documented cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease, dementia or cognitive impairment (17), severe difficulty or inability to perform any of the 6 Katz activities of daily living (18), a high risk of bleeding or anemia, uncontrolled hypertension (systolic ≥ 180 mm Hg and/or diastolic ≥ 105 mm Hg), and any chronic illness that would limit expected survival to less than 5 years (19).

The SHOW study was approved by the Monash Human Research Ethics Committee (CF16/10-2016000001) and the Alfred Hospital Human Research Ethics Committee (616/15). All participants provided written informed consent to contribute biospecimens to the ASPREE Healthy Ageing Biobank.

Sex steroid measurement

Sex steroids were measured in plasma samples drawn at recruitment of women included in SHOW and stored under nitrogen vapor. Measurement was by liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) at the ANZAC Research Institute, Sydney, New South Wales, within a single run without derivatization as previously described in full (3). Assay standards were certified reference materials for T and DHEA (National Measurement Institute, NMI) and for E2 and E1 (Cerillant) and steroid internal standards were d3-T and d2-DHEA (NMI), d4-E2 (Cambridge Isotope Laboratories), and (d4-E1) (Steraloids). The assay limits of detection (LODs), limits of quantification, within-run and between-run coefficient of variations were T (35 pmol/L, 0.09 nmol/L, 2.0%, 3.9-6.5%), E2 (11 pmol/L, 18 pmol/L, 6.6%, 4.8-8.6%), E1 (3.7 pmol/L, 11 pmol/L, 4.7%, 4.6-7.5%), and DHEA (0.07 nmol/L, 0.17 nmol/L, < 10%, < 10%) (20).

Statistical analysis

We defined a “normative group” within the 6392 women who had sex steroids measured to investigate sex steroid physiology. Participants were excluded from this group if they were using systemic or topical sex steroid therapy (estrogen, progestogen, tibolone, DHEA, or T), a selective estrogen receptor modulator, aromatase inhibitor, antiandrogen therapy (spironolactone or cyproterone acetate), glucocorticosteroid therapy, or any antiglycemic agent.

For any samples with an E2 or E1 concentration below the LOD, the concentration was estimated using the formula of LOD/√2, because this has been shown to be a minimally biased method to overcome left censoring (21). The imputed value for any sample with an E2 concentration below the LOD was 7.7 pmol/L. Analyses were performed for the detectable E2 (dE2) values and the dE2 plus imputed values (total E2). A similar approach was adopted for E1; however, less than 1% of the sample had an E1 value below the LOD, hence only total E1 values are reported. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used for comparison of the distribution of continuous variables between the undetectable E2 and dE2 groups. Associations between E2 and age, BMI, and other sex steroids were explored using Spearman correlations (rho, r). Multivariable linear regression was performed using log-transformed (ln) data for the sex steroids. A backward manual stepwise elimination approach was used, and a P value of less than .05 was required for retention of each variable in the model. For models for ln E2, β coefficients and CIs, with r2 values to indicate the proportion of variation explained by each model, are both reported. Analyses were performed using statistical software package Stata (version 15.0; StataCorp LP).

Results

The normative study group included 5325 of the 6392 women age 70 to 94.7 years. Their mean age was 75.1 (SD 4.2) years, 98.9% were Caucasian/white, 40.1% were overweight, and 30.1% were obese (Table 1). Serum E2 and E1 concentrations were below the LOD in 66.1% and 0.9% of the women, respectively (Table 2). The median and interdecile ranges (IDRs) for E1 and dE2 groups were 181.2 pmol/L (range, 88.7-347.6 pmol/L) and 22.0 pmol/L (range, 11.0-58.7 pmol/L), respectively.

Table 1.

Characteristics of women included in the study sample

n = 5325
Age, y
Mean (SD), range 75.1 (4.2), 70-94.8
 70-74, n (%) 3121 (58.6%)
 75-79, n (%) 1442 (27.1%)
 80-84, n (%) 592 (11.1%)
 ≥ 85, n (%) 170 (3.2%)
Ethnicity, n (%)
Caucasian/white 5266 (98.9%)
Asian 30 (0.6%)
Other 29 (0.5%)
Body mass index, kg/m2, mean (SD) 28.0 (5.0)
< 18.5, n (%) 46 (0.87%)
Normal 18.5 to < 25, n (%) 1533 (28.91%)
25 to < 30a, n (%) 2128 (40.14%)
≥ 30b, n (%) 1595 (30.08%)
Waist circumference, cm, mean (SD) 92.6 (12.5)
Current smoker, n (%) 156 (2.93%)

aOverweight.

bObese.

Table 2.

Serum estrone and estradiol concentrations for the study sample

Age, y 70-74 75-79 80-85 ≥ 85 Total ≥ 70 y
Estrone, pmol/L
n 3093 1425 589 170 5277
Below LOD (3.7 pmol/L) 28 (0.9%) 17 (1.2%) 3 (0.5%) 0 (0.0%) 48 (0.9%)
Median 181.2 181.20 196.0 205.2 181.2
10th percentile 88.8 85.1 99.8 83.2 88.7
90th percentile 340.2 351.3 362.4 369.8 347.6
Estradiol, pmol/L
n 1097 480 179 47 1803
Below LOD (11 pmol/L) 2024 (64.8%) 962 (66.7%) 413 (69.8%) 123 (72.3%) 3522 (66.1%)
Median 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0
10th percentile 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0
90th percentile 58.7 58.7 62.4 58.7 58.7

To convert from pmol/L to pg/mL, divide by 3.671.

Abbreviation: LOD, limit of detection.

We first explored the associations between serum E2 and each of age, BMI, serum E1, DHEA, and T for both the dE2 and total E2 groups. There was a weak but significant correlation between total E2 and age (Spearman r = 0.03, P = .03) but not between dE2 and age (r = 0.00, P = .89). Serum concentrations both for total E2 and dE2 were significantly correlated with BMI (r = 0.16, P < .001 and r = 0.09, P < .001, respectively), DHEA (r = 0.20, P < .001 and 0.22, P < .001, respectively), and T (r = 0.26, P < .001 and r = 0.27, P < .001, respectively). The strongest correlations were seen between total E2 and dE2, and E1 (r = 0.45, P < .001 and r = 0.40, P < .001, respectively) (Fig. 1).

Figure 1.

Figure 1.

Associations between serum estrone and A, detectable estradiol concentrations and B, total estradiol concentrations with undetectable values imputed.

We next examined whether women with dE2 concentrations differed from women with undetectable E2 concentrations in terms of age, BMI, and other sex steroids. The women with dE2 concentrations were younger (median 73.8 years vs 74.1, respectively, Kruskal-Wallis P = .02), and had a higher BMI (median BMI 28.5 kg/m2 vs 26.8 kg/m2 respectively, Kruskal-Wallis P < .001). Serum E1, testosterone and DHEA concentrations were all lower in women with undetectable vs dE2 concentrations (Fig. 2).

Figure 2.

Figure 2.

A, Estrone, B, testosterone, and C, dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) concentrations in women with and without detectable estradiol (E2) levels. In the box and whisker plots (outliers not included), the box represents the interquartile range (IQR); the line in the box is the median. The whiskers extend to the upper and lower adjacent values. The upper adjacent value is defined as the largest data point less than the 75th percentile + 1.5 × IQR. The lower adjacent value is defined as the smallest data point greater than the 25th percentile –1.5 × IQR. Outliers are any values beyond the whiskers. *Kruskal-Wallis test.

In the univariate analyses, E1 was positively associated with total E2 (P < .001) and explained 19.7% of the variation in total E2, whereas T and DHEA, also positively associated (P < .001), each explained 8.7% and 4.1% of the variation of total E2, respectively (Table 3). BMI explained approximately 3% of the variation in total E2 (P < .001), and age, which was negatively associated, explained less than 1% of the variation in total E2 (P = .036).

Table 3.

Univariable associations between serum estradiol and other variables

ln total E2
n β 95% CI for β P for β R2
ln E1 5277 .495 0.468 to 0.521 < .001 0.197
ln T 5247 .279 0.254 to 0.303 < .001 0.087
ln DHEA 5290 0.187 0.163 to 0.211 < .001 0.041
Age, y 5325 –.004 –0.009 to –0.0003 .036 0.001
BMI, kg/m2 5302 .021 0.018 to 0.024 < .001 0.026
ln dE2
n β 95% CI for β P for β R2
ln E1 1799 .453 0.402 to 0.505 < .001 0.142
ln T 1792 .293 0.249 to 0.336 < .001 0.088
ln DHEA 1798 .172 0.129 to 0.216 < .001 0.033
Age, y 1803 .001 –0.006 to 0.009 .754 0.000
BMI, kg/m2 1789 .009 0.004 to 0.015 .001 0.006

Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; dE2, detectable estradiol; DHEA, dehydroepiandrosterone; E1, estrone; E2, estradiol; ln, log-transformed; T, testosterone.

The contribution of the variables of interest to serum E2 was examined by multivariable regression with a backward elimination approach (Table 4). In the multivariable model for total E2 that included age, BMI, E1, T, and DHEA, DHEA did not make a significant contribution (P = .06). After removing DHEA from this model, all the remaining variables were significant (r2 = 0.209, P ≤ .001). This model explained an additional 1.2% of the variation in total E2 over ln E1 alone. Only E1 and T made significant contributions (r2 = 0.162, P < .001) in the multivariable model for dE2 (n = 1788).

Table 4.

Multivariable analysis of associations between total and detectable serum estradiol and other variables

β (95% CI) P for β R2
Models for ln total E2, n = 5190 (backward elimination)
ln E1 0.432 (0.398 to 0.466) < .001 0.211
ln T 0.115 (0.087 to 0.142) < .001
ln DHEA –0.026 (–0.053 to 0.001) .057
Age, y –0.007 (–0.011 to –0.003) < .001
BMI, kg/m2 0.010 (0.007 to 0.013) < .001
After removal of ln DHEA
ln E1 0.416 (0.383 to 0.448) < .001 0.210
ln T 0.107 (0.081 to 0.134) < .001
Age, y –0.006 (–0.010 to –0.003) < .001
BMI, kg/m2 0.010 (0.007 to 0.013) < .001
Models for ln dE2, n = 1774 (backward elimination)
ln E1 0.368 (0.307 to 0.428) < .001 0.164
ln T 0.196 (0.145 to 0.246) < .001
ln DHEA –0.035 (–0.085 to 0.015) .167
Age, y –0.004 (–0.011 to 0.003) .301
BMI, kg/m2 0.003 (–0.003 to 0.008) .334
After removal of BMI
ln E1 0.373 (0.314 to 0.432) < .001 0.164
ln T 0.198 (0.147 to 0.248) < .001
ln DHEA –0.038 (–0.087 to 0.012) .134
Age, y –0.004 (–0.011 to 0.003) .241
After removal of age
ln E1 0.371 (0.312 to 0.430) < .001 0.164
ln T 0.194 (0.145 to 0.244) < .001
ln DHEA –0.034 (–0.083 to 0.015) .175
After removal of ln DHEA
ln E1 0.360 (0.303 to 0.417) < .001 0.163
ln T 0.180 (0.135 to 0.226) < .001

Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; dE2, detectable estradiol; E1, estrone; E2, estradiol; DHEA, dehydroepiandrosterone; ln, log-transformed; T, testosterone.

Discussion

This study demonstrates serum E1 is potentially an important determinant of serum E2 in older women. Although age, BMI, and DHEA were each significantly associated with serum E2, none made strong independent contributions to E2 concentrations after accounting for E1.

In contrast to very low circulating E2 being a hallmark of the postmenopausal period, serum E1 concentrations are maintained into older age and are of the same order of magnitude as those seen in premenopausal women. The IDR for E1 in our study was lower than that reported by other studies that have measured E1 by liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry in postmenopausal women. Falk et al (5) reported an IDR for E1 in 215 postmenopausal women, mean age 59.8 years of 96.5 to 842.7 pmol/L, and Trabert and colleagues (10) in 67 women, mean age 63, reported an IDR for E1 of 156 to 1208 pmol/L. Hence 10% of the participants’ serum E1 concentrations in the studies by Falk et al (5) and Trabert et al (10) were above 842 pmol/L and 1208 pmol/L, respectively. As in our study, Frederiksen and colleagues (9) reported unexplained elevated E1 levels in their sample of postmenopausal women up to age 61 years. The very high E1 levels in some postmenopausal women are potentially due to unreported hormone use, despite women having been asked to report all prescription medication. Although dietary factors such as high phytoestrogen intake, or the use of supplements, might explain some of the high E1 levels observed, this is unlikely with the specificity of LC-MS/MS. Furthermore, the consistency of the finding of high E1 levels in postmenopausal women across other studies (5, 9, 10, 22), and the present study, suggests that some women continue to produce large amounts of E1 throughout their adult life. Furthermore, the wide ranges of E1 in otherwise healthy women is a reminder that although reference ranges offer clinical guidance, for values outside a reference range to be considered abnormal, they should first be associated with pathophysiology.

After menopause, circulating E2 arises from extragonadal biosynthesis from the adrenal precursor DHEA. Through this pathway E2 is produced either by aromatization of T or following aromatization of androstenedione to E1, and then from E1 by 17β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase (HSD) enzymes in multiple extragonadal tissues (23). Aromatase is regulated by various tissue-specific promotors, which in turn are activated or inhibited by other hormones or local tissue factors, so the control of E2 production is complex (24). Aromatase gene expression in fat increases with age (25, 26). Therefore, it might be expected that age, BMI, and T would each be a strong predictor of circulating E2 concentrations in older women. However, in the univariate analyses of these factors, only T explained what might be considered a meaningful contribution to the variation in E2. The extragonadal reduction of E1 to E2 is less well understood, although 17β–HSD type 12 has been implicated as having a key role in E2 biosynthesis in human adipose (27). Our finding of E1 alone accounting for 19.7% of the variation in total E2 in older women, with only a 1.2% additional benefit of adding in age, BMI, or T to the model, highlights the physiological importance of E1 in E2 biosynthesis in older women.

Nonetheless, E1 has often been dismissed as a weak estrogen of little physiological significance. Although a weaker estrogen than E2 in conventional ligand-binding assays and in vitro estrogen bioassays, the estimation of in vivo estrogen potency is complex. Net E2 biosynthesis and metabolism need to be taken into account along with the variability in tissue-specific coactivator recruitment that modulates estrogen receptor gene expression (28). With circulating E1 concentrations in postmenopausal women on the order of 100-fold greater than E2, E1 is likely to exert biologically significant effects, even with estimates of relative potency of less than 10% of that of E2 (28). Consistent with this, serum E1 concentrations have been positively correlated with bone mineral density (29) and breast cancer risk (30) and inversely with colon cancer risk (31) in postmenopausal women. Hence, taken together, serum E1 concentrations should be included in studies investigating estrogen associations with postmenopausal health outcomes.

The present study has several strengths, including being a large, community-based sample of older women, providing statistical power to report hormonal ranges and measurement of sex steroids by LC-MS/MS, and providing high sensitivity and specificity (31), 32). A study limitation is its cross-sectional design that rendered us unable to report changes in hormone concentrations with age. With our study sample comprising predominantly causcasian/white women, our findings cannot be generalized to other populations. Regarding past oophorectomy, these data were not collected; therefore, we were unable to assess their impact on hormone levels in these older postmenopausal women.

In conclusion, our findings support E1 as a principal circulating estrogen and demonstrate a robust association between E1 and E2 concentrations in postmenopausal women. E1 should be measured in future studies seeking an association between endogenous estrogen concentrations and health outcomes in postmenopausal women.

Acknowledgments

Financial Support: The ASPREE trial was supported by the National Institute on Aging and the National Cancer Institute at the National Institutes of Health (Grant U01AG029824), the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia (Grant 34047, 1127060), Monash University (Australia), and the Victorian Cancer Agency (Australia). The ASPREE Healthy Ageing Biobank was funded by the CSIRO (Flagship Grant), the National Cancer Institute (Grant U01 AG029824), and Monash University. This analysis of sex hormones was funded by an NHMRC of Australia Project Grant (No. 1105305). S.R.D. is an Australian NHMRC Senior Principal Research Fellow (Grant 1135843).

Trial Registration: International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial registration No. ISRCTN83772183 (July 14, 2005) and clinicaltrials.gov No. NCT01038583 (December 24, 2009).

Glossary

Abbreviations

ASPREE

ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly study

BMI

body mass index

dE2

detectable estradiol

DHEA

dehydroepiandrosterone

E1

estrone

E2

estradiol

HSD

17β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase

IDR

interdecile range

LC-MS/MS

liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry

ln

log-transformed

LOD

limit of detection

SHOW

Sex Hormones in Older Women study

T

testosterone

Additional Information

Disclosure Summary: Dr Davis reports having received honoraria from Besins Healthcare and Pfizer Australia and has been a consultant to Mayne Pharmaceuticals, Lawley Pharmaceuticals and Que Oncology. Dr Handelsman has received institutional grant funding (but no personal income) for investigator-initiated clinical testosterone pharmacology studies (Lawley, Besins Healthcare) and has provided expert testimony to antidoping and professional standards tribunals and testosterone litigation. No other potential conflict of interest relevant to this article are reported.

Data Availability: Restrictions apply to the availability of data generated or analyzed during this study to preserve patient confidentiality or because they were used under license. The corresponding author will on request detail the restrictions and any conditions under which access to some data may be provided.

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