FIG. 2.

Model calibration between March 19 and 28. (a) Daily observation of documented active COVID-19 cases (circle) is compared with the best-fit model (line). The parameter combination leading to the best fit is outlined in each subpanel. (b) Root-mean-square-error (RMSE) between observation and model prediction is plotted as a function of documentation ratio $(\eta )$ and initial exposure ratio $(\zeta )$ for each corresponding state. The basic reproduction ratio $(R_0)$ is held constant here, taking the values outlined in the respective subpanels in (a). (c) Distribution of $R_0$ across the 52 locations. (d) Distribution of $\eta \text{and}\zeta$ across the 52 locations. In (c) and (d), center of the box represents state-wise median values. Edges of the box represent the 25th and 75th percentile. Whiskers extend to the extreme data points not considered outliers, and outliers are represented by a circle symbol.