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[Preprint]. 2020 Aug 4:2020.08.03.20167056. [Version 1] doi: 10.1101/2020.08.03.20167056

The impact of relaxing interventions on human contact patterns and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China

Juanjuan Zhang, Maria Litvinova, Yuxia Liang, Wen Zheng, Huilin Shi, Alessandro Vespignani, Cecile Viboud, Marco Ajelli, Hongjie Yu
PMCID: PMC7418732  PMID: 32793917

Abstract

Non-pharmaceutical interventions to control COVID-19 spread have been implemented in several countries with different intensity, timing, and impact on transmission. As a result, post-lockdown COVID-19 dynamics are heterogenous and difficult to interpret. Here we describe a set of contact surveys performed in four Chinese cities (Wuhan, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Changsha) during the pre-pandemic, lockdown, and post-lockdown period to quantify the transmission impact of relaxing interventions via changes in age-specific contact patterns. We estimate that the mean number of contacts increased 5%-17% since the end of the lockdown but are still 3-7 times lower than their pre-pandemic levels. We find that post-lockdown contact patterns in China are still sufficiently low to keep SARS-CoV-2 transmission under control. We also find that the impact of school interventions depends non-linearly on the share of other activities being resumed. When most community activities are halted, school closure leads to a 77% decrease in the reproductive number; in contrast, when social mixing outside of schools is at pre-pandemic level, school closure leads to a 5% reduction in transmission. Moving forward, to control COVID-19 spread without resorting to a lockdown, it will be key to dose relaxation in social mixing in the community and strengthen targeted interventions.

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