Skip to main content

This is a preprint.

It has not yet been peer reviewed by a journal.

The National Library of Medicine is running a pilot to include preprints that result from research funded by NIH in PMC and PubMed.

medRxiv logoLink to medRxiv
[Preprint]. 2020 Nov 3:2020.07.23.20160317. [Version 4] doi: 10.1101/2020.07.23.20160317

Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China

Shixiong Hu, Wei Wang, Yan Wang, Maria Litvinova, Kaiwei Luo, Lingshuang Ren, Qianlai Sun, Xinghui Chen, Ge Zeng, Jing Li, Lu Liang, Zhihong Deng, Wen Zheng, Mei Li, Hao Yang, Jinxin Guo, Kai Wang, Xinhua Chen, Ziyan Liu, Han Yan, Huilin Shi, Zhiyuan Chen, Yonghong Zhou, Kaiyuan Sun, Alessandro Vespignani, Cécile Viboud, Lidong Gao, Marco Ajelli, Hongjie Yu
PMCID: PMC7418756  PMID: 32793929

Abstract

Several mechanisms driving SARS-CoV-2 transmission remain unclear. Based on individual records of 1,178 SARS-CoV-2 infectors and their 15,648 contacts in Hunan, China, we estimated key transmission parameters. The mean generation time was estimated to be 5.7 (median: 5.5, IQR: 4.5, 6.8) days, with infectiousness peaking 1.8 days before symptom onset, with 95% of transmission events occurring between 8.8 days before and 9.5 days after symptom onset. Most of transmission events occurred during the pre-symptomatic phase (59.2%). SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility to infection increases with age, while transmissibility is not significantly different between age groups and between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Contacts in households and exposure to first-generation cases are associated with higher odds of transmission. Our findings support the hypothesis that children can effectively transmit SARS-CoV-2 and highlight how pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission can hinder control efforts.

Full Text Availability

The license terms selected by the author(s) for this preprint version do not permit archiving in PMC. The full text is available from the preprint server.


Articles from medRxiv are provided here courtesy of Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Preprints

RESOURCES