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. 2020 Aug 26;140:110238. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110238

Stationary distribution and extinction of a stochastic staged progression AIDS model with staged treatment and second-order perturbation

Bingtao Han a, Daqing Jiang a,b,, Tasawar Hayat b,c, Ahmed Alsaedi b, Bashir Ahmad b
PMCID: PMC7449666  PMID: 32868968

Highlights

  • A stochastic staged progression AIDS model with staged treatment and second-order perturbation is studied.

  • The existence and uniqueness of the ergodic stationary distribution is obtained under the condition of.

  • If, we obtain that the AIDS epidemic will go to extinction in long-term.

Keywords: Stochastic staged progression AIDS model, Staged treatment, Second-order perturbation, Ergodic stationary distribution, Extinction

Abstract

Focusing on deterministic AIDS model proposed by Hyman (2000) and the detailed data from the World Health Organization (WHO), there are three stages of AIDS process which are described as Acute infection period, Asymptomatic phase and AIDS stage. Our paper is therefore concerned with a stochastic staged progression AIDS model with staged treatment. In view of the complexity of random disturbances, we reasonably take second-order perturbation into consideration for realistic sense. By means of our creative transformation technique and stochastic Lyapunov method, a critical value R0H>1 is firstly obtained for the existence and uniqueness of ergodic stationary distribution to the stochastic system. Not only does it respectively reveal the corresponding dynamical effects of the linear and second-order perturbations to the model, but the unified form of second-order and linear fluctuations is derived. Next, some sufficient conditions about extinction of stochastic system are established in view of the basic reproduction number R0. Finally, some examples and numerical simulations are introduced to illustrate our analytical results. In addition, some advantages of our new method and theory are highlighted by comparison with other existing results at the end of this paper.

1. Introduction

1.1. Research background

As we know, Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is a serious global infectious disease caused by Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection. According to epidemiology study and medical research, HIV mainly attacks the immune system of human body, especially for CD4+T lymphocyte. There are two HIV types worldwide which are described as HIV-1 and HIV-2. HIV-1 is the current main HIV epidemic strain in the real world, which has a long incubation period and high fatality rate for patients. Worse still, based on the statistic reported by the World Health Organization (WHO), almost 2 million people died worldwide in 2009 and about 32 million human beings were killed by HIV at the end of 2018. Consequently, most researchers have established some suitable deterministic HIV/AIDS models and studied the relevant dynamics in the past few decades (See [3], [4], [5], [6]). Based on the thought of functional response in biology population, Huang and Ma [3] developed a deterministic HIV-1 model with Beddington-DeAngelis infection rate. They proved global stability of two equilibria for the model. Considering healthy condition of the susceptible, Hyman et al. proposed a deterministic multi-group SIA (Susceptible-Infected-AIDS) epidemic model for the transmission of HIV/AIDS in Hyman et al. [5], which reflects age structure. Additionally, by personal infection pathology investigation of HIV/AIDS patients, many authors developed some HIV models with nonlinear incidence ([7],[8],[10]) and delay differential equations of HIV infection [11], [12], [13].

Moreover, AIDS infection progression includes HIV acute infection period, asymptomatic phase and AIDS stage by means of the corresponding epidemiology analysis of AIDS and detailed description of Hyman et al. [1]. Thus Cai and Fang [14] considered a staged progression HIV model with imperfect vaccination, they derived the disease threshold and verified the corresponding global asymptotic stability. Due to the complex retrovirus gene of HIV, sufferers have to take some great treatment measures to survive longer, such as Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) [2]. Therefore, some realistic AIDS models with great treatment have been proposed in the past few decades [15], [16], [18]. In [15], Musekwa et al. analyzed local stability of two equilibria of a deterministic AIDS model with screened disease carriers. Additionally, they also obtained the relevant basic reproduction number. However, these existing mathematical models indicate that staged treatment is not taken into account for deterministic AIDS system. In view of the difficulty in obtaining the corresponding basic reproduction number, as a result, they neglected the process of alleviating HIV/AIDS infection through great therapy. It is difficult to completely describe the transmission of AIDS epidemic by means of these models, thus a more reasonable staged progression AIDS model with staged treatment shall be proposed and investigated.

1.2. Ordinary differential equation model and dynamical properties

Following the above thoughts and discussion, we assume that S(t) is the number of susceptible individuals at time t. Similarly, let I 1(t), I 2(t) and I 3(t) be the numbers of HIV acute infection individuals, asymptomatic case patients and the AIDS sufferers without therapy, respectively. T 1(t), T 2(t) and T 3(t) are separately the numbers of compartments I 1(t), I 2(t) and I 3(t) under treatment. Our paper focuses on the deterministic staged progression AIDS model with staged treatment which is given by

{dS(t)dt=Λμ1S(t)[β1I1(t)+β2I2(t)+β3I3(t)+α1T1(t)+α2T2(t)]S(t),dI1(t)dt=[β1I1(t)+β2I2(t)+β3I3(t)+α1T1(t)+α2T2(t)]S(t)(μ2+δ1+δ2+δ3)I1(t),dT1(t)dt=δ1I1(t)(μ3+γ1)T1(t)+ωT2(t),dI2(t)dt=δ2I1(t)+γ1T1(t)(μ4+ρ1+ρ2)I2(t),dT2(t)dt=ρ1I2(t)(μ5+γ2+ω)T2(t),dI3(t)dt=δ3I1(t)+ρ2I2(t)+γ2T2(t)(μ6+η)I3(t),dT3(t)dt=ηI3(t)μ7T3(t), (1)

where Λ is the recruitment rate of the susceptible, μi(i=1,2,3,4,5,6,7) denote the average death rates of the classes S(t), I 1(t), T 1(t), I 2(t), T 2(t), I 3(t) and T 3(t), respectively. β 1, β 2, β 3, α 1 and α 2 depict the effective contact coefficients between the group S(t) and I 1(t), I 2(t), I 3(t), T 1(t), T 2(t), respectively. δ 1, δ 2 and δ 3 are separately the rates at which the compartment I 1(t) develops into the groups T 1(t), I 2(t) and T 3(t). ρ 1 and ρ 2 are transfer rates at which the groups I 2(t) flows into the classes T 2(t) and I 3(t), respectively. γ 1 denotes the transmission rate from T 1(t) to I 2(t), γ 2 reflects the transmission rate from T 2(t) class to I 3(t) group. η denotes the treatment rate of the AIDS patients, ω is the effective treatment rate of the group T 2. The above parameters are assumed to be positive in biology.

In system (1), the invariant and attracting domain is defined as Π={(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3,T3)|S0,Ik0,Tk0(k=1,2,3),S+k=13(Ik+Tk)Λmin{μ1,μ2,μ3,,μ7}}. Next, we define

μ¯2=μ2+δ1+δ2+δ3,μ¯3=μ3+γ1,μ¯4=μ4+ρ1+ρ2,μ¯5=μ5+γ2+ω,μ¯6=μ6+η.

Then the corresponding basic reproduction number which can guarantee the AIDS epidemic occurs or not is derived as follows,

R0=Λ(β1+β2φ1+β3φ2+α1φ3+α2φ4)μ1μ¯2

with

φ4=ρ1(μ¯3δ2+γ1δ1)μ¯3μ¯4μ¯5γ1ωρ1,φ3=μ¯4μ¯5δ1+δ2ωρ1μ¯3μ¯4μ¯5γ1ωρ1,φ1=μ¯5φ4ρ1,φ2=δ3+ρ2φ1+γ2φ4μ¯6.

• If R01, the unique disease-free equilibrium P0=(S0,I10,T10,I20,T20,I30,T30)=(Λμ1,0,0,0,0,0,0) is globally asymptotically stable in domain Π.

• Assume that R0>1, P 0 is unstable but the endemic equilibrium P*=(S*,I1*,T1*,I2*,T2*,I3*,T3*) is globally asymptotically stable in set Π, where S*=Λμ1R0,I1*=Λ(R01)μ¯2R0,I2*=φ1I1*,I3*=φ2I1*,T1*=φ3I1*,T2*=φ4I1*,T3*=ημ7I3*.

1.3. Stochastic differential equation

In reality, the AIDS treated population T 3(t) has no effect on the dynamics of the compartments S(t), I 1(t), T 1(t),

I 2(t), T 2(t) and I 3(t). Thus the whole dynamical behaviors of AIDS epidemic is only determined by the first six equations of system (1). In addition, various bio-mathematical models are inevitably affected by the environmental variations, see [17]. Consequently, some interesting stochastic epidemic models have been proposed and investigated in the past few decades [19], [21], [22], [23], [25], [26]. Similarly, some authors also analyzed the corresponding stochastic HIV/AIDS models with various incidence rate types [24], [27], [28]. For example, Wang and Jiang [27] proved the existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution for an HIV system with general incidence rate. However, we easily notice that all assumptions of stochastic perturbations of their papers are linear noise condition, such as “dT(t)=[sdT(t)βT(t)G(V(t))]dt+σ1T(t)dB1(t)”, which is described in Liu and Jiang [28], where σ 1 > 0 is the intensity of one-dimensional standard Brownian motion B 1(t). For a more realistic situation of the spread and development process of epidemics, the second-order perturbation shall be taken into consideration for system (1) by drawing on the thoughts of Liu and Jiang [29]. In this paper, we assume that the perturbation results of μk(k=1,2,3,4,5,6) are separately described by

μ1μ1+(σ11S(t)+σ12)B˙1(t),μ2μ2+(σ21I1(t)+σ22)B˙2(t),μ3μ3+(σ31T1(t)+σ32)B˙3(t),
μ4μ4+(σ41I2(t)+σ42)B˙4(t),μ5μ5+(σ51T2(t)+σ52)B˙5(t),μ6μ6+(σ61I3(t)+σ62)B˙6(t),

where B 1(t), B 2(t), B 3(t), B 4(t), B 5(t) and B 6(t) are six independent standard Brownian motions, σij>0(i=1,2,3,4,5,6;j=1,2) reflect the intensity of white noises, respectively. In other words, the corresponding stochastic staged progression AIDS model with staged treatment and second-order perturbation is given by

{dS(t)=[Λμ1S(t)(i=13βiIi(t)+j=12αjTj(t))S(t)]dt+(σ11S(t)+σ12)S(t)dB1(t),dI1(t)=[(i=13βiIi(t)+j=12αjTj(t))S(t)μ¯2I1(t)]dt+(σ21I1(t)+σ22)I1(t)dB2(t),dT1(t)=[δ1I1(t)μ¯3T1(t)+ωT2(t)]dt+(σ31T1(t)+σ32)T1(t)dB3(t),dI2(t)=[δ2I1(t)+γ1T1(t)μ¯4I2(t)]dt+(σ41I2(t)+σ42)I2(t)dB4(t),dT2(t)=[ρ1I2(t)μ¯5T2(t)]dt+(σ51T2(t)+σ52)T2(t)dB5(t),dI3(t)=[δ3I1(t)+ρ2I2(t)+γ2T2(t)μ¯6I3(t)]dt+(σ61I3(t)+σ62)I3(t)dB6(t). (2)

Obviously, the assumption of stochastic second-order perturbation implies that the environmental variation is dependent on square of compartments S(t), I 1(t), T 1(t), I 2(t), T 2(t) and I 3(t) at some extent.

The reminding content of this paper is structured as follows. Preliminaries about stochastic differential equation and necessary lemmas are described in Section 2. By means of stochastic Lyapunov technique and our new method, some sufficient conditions of the unique ergodic stationary distribution and positive recurrence of system (2) are obtained in Section 3. Furthermore, the forms of secondary high-order perturbation and linear fluctuation are unified by this method. In Section 4, we derive the corresponding extinction result of system (2) based on the reproduction number R0. Section 5 shows some examples and numerical simulations to validate our theoretical results. Additionally, the relevant dynamical effects of second-order and linear perturbations are analyzed and discussed in Section 6. At last, our new method and theory go further to compare with other existing results at the end of this paper.

2. Preliminaries and necessary lemmas

Throughout this paper, the relevant stochastic differential equation theories are established on the complete probability space {Ω,Γ,{Γt}t0,P} with a filtration {Γt}t0 unless otherwise specified, and {Γt}t0 is increasing and right continuous when Γ0 contains all P-null sets [20]. In addition, some notations shall be defined in the first place. Let Rn be an n-dimensional standard Euclidean space. Denote

a1a2ak=max{a1,a2,,ak},a1a2ak=min{a1,a2,,ak},R+k={(x1,,xk)|xi>0,1ik}.

If f(t) is an integral function on set [0, ∞), let fu=supt[0,)f(t),fv=inft[0,)f(t).

For the following dynamical investigation of system (2), we shall firstly introduce some important lemmas.

Lemma 1

Assume that x ≥ 0, then the following two inequalities holds

(i).x3(x12)(x2+1),(ii).x4(34x214)(x2+1). (3)

The validation of Lemma 1 can refer to the subsection (II) in Appendix A.

Next, the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution of system (2) is described by the following Lemma 2. The corresponding proof is in accordance with the general theory of Theorem 2.4 of Chapter 4 in Mao [20], thus we only propose it here.

Lemma 2

For any initial value (S(0), I 1(0), T 1(0), I 2(0), T 2(0), I 3(0))R+6, then there exists a unique solution (S(t), I 1(t), T 1(t), I 2(t), T 2(t), I 3(t)) of the system (2) on t ≥ 0 and the solution will remain in R+6 with probability one (a.s.).

In view of systematic description of Has’minskii [9], let X(t) be a homogeneous Markov process in Rn, which follows the stochastic differential equation

dX(t)=g(X(t))dt+i=1nhi(X)dBi(t),

where the diffusion matrix A(x)=(aij(x)), and aij(x)=k=1nhki(x)hkj(x). Moreover, the sufficient conditions of the existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution is given by the following Lemma 3

Lemma 3

(Has’miniskii [9] ) If there exists a bounded domain DRn with a regular boundary Γ, which follows

(C 1). There is a positive number M 0 such that i,j=1naij(x)θiθjM0|Θ|2, xD,ΘRn .

(C 2). There is a non-negative C 2 -function V such that LV is negative for any RnD=Dc .

Then the Markov process X(t) has a unique ergodic stationary distribution ϖ( · ). Let g( · ) be an integral function with respect to the measure ϖ, then it satisfies

P(limt1t0tg(X(t))dt=Rng(x)ϖ(dx))=1.

Finally, a stochastic comparison equation with respect to the compartment S(t) of system (2) is given by

dS¯(t)=(Λμ1S¯(t))dt+(σ11S¯(t)+σ12)S¯(t)dB1(t) (4)

with the same initial value S¯(0)=S(0)>0. In view of the stochastic comparison theorem [18], the relevant results are described by the following Lemma 4.

Lemma 4

If S¯(t) is the solution of system (4) , then S¯(t) is ergodic. Assume that π(x) (x > 0) is the weakly convergent invariant density of S¯(t), by means of ergodicity property, one has

(i).S(t)S¯(t),a.s.,(ii).limt1t0tS¯(τ)dτ=0xπ(x)dx,a.s., (5)

where

π(x)=C1x2(1+c0)(σ11x+σ12)2(1c0)exp(2(Λ+σ122c0x)σ12x(σ11x+σ12)),(x>0)

with c0=2Λσ11+μ1σ12σ123, and C 1 is a positive constant which satisfies 0π(x)dx=1 .

The detailed proof of Lemma 4 is mostly similar to the corresponding analysis in [29]. We therefore omit it here.

3. Stationary distribution and ergodicity property of system (2)

In this section, we aim to obtain the sufficient conditions of a unique ergodic stationary distribution of system (2). To make the later description and proof clear and simple, some constants need to be defined as follows

μ˜i=μ¯i+σi222(i=2,3,,6),ψ4=ρ1(μ˜3δ2+γ1δ1)μ˜3μ˜4μ˜5γ1ωρ1,ψ3=μ˜4μ˜5δ1+δ2ωρ1μ˜3μ˜4μ˜5γ1ωρ1,ψ1=μ˜5ρ1ψ4,ψ2=δ3+ρ2ψ1+γ2ψ4μ˜6.

Denote

R0H=Λ(β1+β2ψ1+β3ψ2+α1ψ3+α2ψ4)(μ1+σ1222+2Λ2σ1123+2Λσ11σ12)(μ¯2+σ2222+2Λ2σ2123).

Theorem 1

For any initial value (S(0),I1(0),T1(0),I2(0),T2(0),I3(0))R+6 . Assume that R0H>1, then the solution (S(t), I 1(t), T 1(t), I 2(t), T 2(t), I 3(t)) of system (2) has a unique stationary distribution π( · ) and it has ergodicity property.

Proof

According to the results of Lemmas 2 and 3, a pair of suitable bounded closed domain D and non-negative Lyapunov function V(S, I 1, T 1, I 2, T 2, I 3) shall be constructed to validate the conditions (C 1) and (C 2) of Lemma 3. Next we will prove Theorem 1 by the following five steps

Step 1. The corresponding diffusion matrix of system (2) is given by

A=(σ11S2+σ12S000000σ21I12+σ22I1000000σ31T12+σ32T1000000σ41I22+σ42I2000000σ51T22+σ52T2000000σ61I32+σ62I3).

If (S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)Un=(1n,n)×(1n,n)×(1n,n)×(1n,n)×(1n,n)×(1n,n), we can always choose a constant M0:=inf(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)Un((σ11S2+σ12S)2(σ21I12+σ22I1)2(σ31T12+σ32T1)2(σ41I22+σ42I2)2(σ51T22+σ52T2)2(σ61I32+σ62I3)2)>0, such that

i=16j=16aij(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)θiθj=(σ11S2+σ12S)2θ12+(σ21I12+σ22I1)2θ22+(σ31T12+σ32T1)2θ32+(σ41I22+σ42I2)2θ42+(σ51T22+σ52T2)2θ52+(σ61I32+σ62I3)2θ62M0Θ2 (6)

for any Θ=(θ1,θ2,θ3,θ4,θ5,θ6)R6. Hence the assumption (C 1) in Lemma 3 holds.

Step 2. (ϵ0-threshold theory) Let the variable ϵ ∈ (0, 1), define the functions μ^i=μ¯i+σi222+σi12ϵ26(i=3,4,5,6), and R0h(ϵ) is constructed by

R0h(ϵ)=Λ(β1+β2ϕ1+β3ϕ2+α1ϕ3+α2ϕ4)(μ1+σ1222+2Λ2σ112(1ϵ)23+2Λσ11σ121ϵ)(μ¯2+σ2222+2Λ2σ212(1ϵ)23),

where

ϕ4=ρ1(μ^3δ2+γ1δ1)μ^3μ^4μ^5γ1ωρ1,ϕ3=μ^4μ^5δ1+δ2ωρ1μ^3μ^4μ^5γ1ωρ1,ϕ1=μ^5ρ1ϕ4,ϕ2=δ3+ρ2ϕ1+γ2ϕ4μ^6.

For purpose of convenience of the following description, we still need to define

μ˜1=μ1+σ1222+2Λ2σ1123+2Λσ11σ12,μ˜2=μ¯2+σ2222+2Λ2σ2123,
μ^1=μ1+σ1222+2Λ2σ112(1ϵ)23+2Λσ11σ121ϵ,μ^2=μ¯2+σ2222+2Λ2σ212(1ϵ)23.

Clearly,

(i).R0H=Λβ1μ˜1μ˜2+Λβ2ψ1μ˜1μ˜2+Λβ3ψ2μ˜1μ˜2+Λα1ψ3μ˜1μ˜2+Λα2ψ4μ˜1μ˜2:=H0+H1+H2+H3+H4,
(ii).R0h(ϵ)=Λβ1μ^1μ^2+Λβ2ϕ1μ^1μ^2+Λβ3ϕ2μ^1μ^2+Λα1ϕ3μ^1μ^2+Λα2ϕ4μ^1μ^2:=h0(ϵ)+h1(ϵ)+h2(ϵ)+h3(ϵ)+h4(ϵ).

Furthermore, we can easily notice that μ^i(i=1,2,3,4,5,6) are all monotonically decreasing functions of the variable ϵ, which follow

infϵ(0,1)μ^i=limϵ0+μ^i=μ˜i,(i=1,2,3,4,5,6).

Consequently, it indicates that hk(ϵ)(k=0,1,2,3,4) are all monotonically increasing functions of the variable ϵ. They still satisfy

supϵ(0,1)hk(ϵ)=limϵ0+hk(ϵ)=Hk,(k=0,1,2,3,4).

Therefore, R0h(ϵ) is monotonically increasing function with respect to the variable ϵ ∈ (0, 1), and it follows limϵ0+R0h(ϵ)=R0H. That is to say, we can always select a constant ϵ0 ∈ (0, 1) to make R0h(ϵ0)=1 if R0H>1. Throughout the following proof of this section, unless otherwise specified, we will fix a value ϵ < ϵ0 which guarantees R 0(ϵ) > 1. Similarly, it means that μ^k(k=1,2,,6) are all positive constants.

According to all proofs about other existing stationary distribution of stochastic infectious disease models, we clearly conclude that the effect of a linear perturbation σ > 0 only reflects by σ22, such as [23], [30], [31]. Nevertheless, the previous method has a difficulty applying to the second-order perturbation condition. More precisely, it can not eliminate the influence of square terms of variables S, I 1, T 1, I 2, T 2 and T 3, that is S2,I12,T12,I22,T22 and T32. In view of ϵ0-threshold theory in Step 2, a kind of new Lyapunov function used for eliminating second-order noise is introduced in Step 3 in detail, which refers to Wk(k=1,2,,6).

Step 3. Some important C 2-stochastic Lyapunov functions are given by

W1=i=12νi(S+ui)ϵϵ,W2=ϱ0S+ν3(I1+u3)ϵϵ,W3=ν4(T1+ϵ)ϵϵ,
W4=ν4(I2+ϵ)ϵϵ,W5=ν4(T2+ϵ)ϵϵ,W6=ν4(I3+ϵ)ϵϵ

where the parameters ui,νj(i=1,2,3;j=1,2,3,4) and ϱ0 are determined below.

By means of Lemma 1, we can derive the following results by Ito^’s formula described in Appendix B

LW1=k=12νk(S+uk)ϵ1[Λμ1S(i=13βiIi+j=12αjTj)S]k=12(1ϵ)νk2(S+uk)2ϵ(σ11S2+σ12S)2k=12Λνkuk1ϵk=12(1ϵ)νkukϵ22(1+Suk)2ϵ(σ11S2+σ12S)2k=12Λνkuk1ϵ(1ϵ)ν1u1ϵ2σ112S42(1+Su1)2(1ϵ)ν2u2ϵ2σ11σ12S3(1+Su2)2k=12Λνkuk1ϵ(1ϵ)ν1u1ϵ+2σ112(Su1)44[1+(Su1)2](1ϵ)ν2u2ϵ+1σ11σ12(Su2)32[1+(Su2)2]k=12Λνkuk1ϵ116(1ϵ)ν1u1ϵ+2σ112[3(Su1)21]12(1ϵ)ν2u2ϵ+1σ11σ12(Su212)=[Λν1u11ϵ+(1ϵ)ν1u1ϵ+2σ11216]+[Λν2u21ϵ+(1ϵ)ν2u2ϵ+1σ11σ124]316(1ϵ)ν1u1ϵσ112S212(1ϵ)ν2u2ϵσ11σ12S. (7)

Choose

ν1=83(1ϵ)u1ϵ,u1=2Λ(1ϵ)σ1123,ν2=2(1ϵ)u2ϵ,u2=2Λ(1ϵ)σ11σ12,

where the values of u 1 and u 2 depend on the average inequalities a1+a2+a33a1a2a33 and b1b22b1b2, respectively. In addition, their signs separately hold if and only if the positive variable a1=a2=a3 and b1=b2. Hence we have

LW12Λ2σ112(1ϵ)23+2Λσ11σ121ϵσ112S22σ11σ12S. (8)

Similarly, we derive

LW2=ϱ0[Λμ1S(i=13βiIi+j=12αjTj)S]+ν3(I1+u3)ϵ1[(i=13βiIi+j=12αjTj)Sμ¯2I1](1ϵ)ν32(I1+u3)ϵ2(σ21I12+σ22I1)2ϱ0Λ(ϱ0ν3u3ϵ1)(i=13βiIi+j=12αjTj)S(1ϵ)ν3u3ϵ2σ212I142(1+I1u3)2ϵϱ0Λ(ϱ0ν3u3ϵ1)(i=13βiIi+j=12αjTj)S(1ϵ)ν3u3ϵ+2σ212(I1u3)44[1+(I1u3)2][ϱ0Λ+(1ϵ)ν3u3ϵ+2σ21216](ϱ0ν3u3ϵ1)(i=13βiIi+j=12αjTj)S3(1ϵ)ν3u3ϵσ212I1216. (9)

By the similar method for parameters u 1 and ν 1 of function W 1, we choose

ϱ0=ν3u3ϵ1,ν3=83(1ϵ)u3ϵ,u3=2Λ(1ϵ)σ2123,

then we have

LW22Λ2σ212(1ϵ)23σ212I122. (10)

Employing Ito^’s formula to function W 3, one has

LW3=ν4(T1+ϵ)ϵ1(δ1I1+ωT2μ¯3T1)(1ϵ)ν42(T1+ϵ)ϵ2(σ31T12+σ32T1)2ν4δ1I1ϵ1ϵ+ν4ωT2ϵ1ϵ(1ϵ)ν4ϵϵ2σ312T142(1+T1ϵ)2ϵν4δ1I1ϵ1ϵ+ν4ωT2ϵ1ϵ(1ϵ)ν4ϵϵ+2σ312(T1ϵ)44[1+(T1ϵ)2]ν4δ1I1ϵ1ϵ+ν4ωT2ϵ1ϵ+(1ϵ)ν4ϵϵ+2σ312163(1ϵ)ν4ϵϵσ312T1216. (11)

Let ν4=83(1ϵ)ϵϵ, one has

LW38δ1I13ϵ(1ϵ)+8ωT23ϵ(1ϵ)+σ312ϵ26σ312T122. (12)

In view of the methods described in (11) and (12), we similarly get

LW48δ2I13ϵ(1ϵ)+8γ1T13ϵ(1ϵ)+σ412ϵ26σ412I222. (13)
LW58ρ1I23ϵ(1ϵ)+σ512ϵ26σ512T222. (14)
LW68δ3I13ϵ(1ϵ)+8ρ2I23ϵ(1ϵ)+8γ2T23ϵ(1ϵ)+σ612ϵ26σ612I322. (15)

From the corresponding expressions of (8), (10), (12)(15), we derive all negative square terms of the variables in system (2) by Steps 2 and 3. Now our new method together with previous technique can completely eliminate the effect of second-order fluctuation which is difficultly solved by the existing theory. Next, some suitable C 2-stochastic Lyapunov functions are constructed as

V1=lnS+W1,V2=lnI1+W2,V3=lnT1+W3,V4=lnI2+W4,V5=lnT2+W5,
V6=lnI3+W6,W7=lnSi=12(lnIi+1+lnTi),W8=3S+I1+T1+I2+T2+I3+13,

In view of (8), (10), (12)(15), we can obtain by applying Ito^’s formula to Vi(i=1,2,3,4,5,6)

LV1[ΛS+μ1+i=13βiIi+j=12αjTj+σ1222+σ11σ12S+σ112S22]+2Λ2σ112(1ϵ)23+2Λσ11σ121ϵσ112S22σ11σ12S=ΛS+μ^1+β1I1+β2I2+β3I3+α1T1+α2T2. (16)
LV2[(β1+β2I2I1+β3I3I1+α1T1I1+α2T2I1)S+μ¯2+σ2222+σ21σ22I1+σ2122I12]+2Λ2σ212(1ϵ)23σ212I122=(β1+β2I2I1+β3I3I1+α1T1I1+α2T2I1)S+μ^2+σ21σ22I1. (17)
LV3(δ1I1T1ωT2T1+μ¯3+σ3222+σ31σ32T1+σ3122T12)+8δ1I13ϵ(1ϵ)+8ωT23ϵ(1ϵ)+σ312ϵ26σ312T122=δ1I1T1ωT2T1+μ^3+σ31σ32T1+8δ1I13ϵ(1ϵ)+8ωT23ϵ(1ϵ). (18)
LV4(δ2I1I2γ1T1I2+μ¯4+σ4222+σ41σ42I2+σ4122I22)+8δ2I13ϵ(1ϵ)+8γ1T13ϵ(1ϵ)+σ412ϵ26σ412I222=δ2I1I2γ1T1I2+μ^4+σ41σ42I2+8δ2I13ϵ(1ϵ)+8γ1T13ϵ(1ϵ). (19)
LV5(ρ1I2T2+μ¯5+σ5222+σ51σ52T2+σ5122T22)+8ρ1I23ϵ(1ϵ)+σ512ϵ26σ512T222=ρ1I2T2+μ^5+σ51σ52T2+8ρ1I23ϵ(1ϵ). (20)
LV6(δ3I1I3ρ2I2I3γ2T2I3+μ6d+σ6222+σ61σ62I3+σ6122I32)+8δ3I13ϵ(1ϵ)+8ρ2I23ϵ(1ϵ)+8γ2T23ϵ(1ϵ)+σ612ϵ26σ612I322=δ3I1I3ρ2I2I3γ2T2I3+μ^6+σ61σ62I3+8δ3I13ϵ(1ϵ)+8ρ2I23ϵ(1ϵ)+8γ2T23ϵ(1ϵ). (21)

By means of Ito^’s formula again, we similarly have

LW7=ΛS+μ1+σ1222+β1I1+β2I2+β3I3+α1T1+α2T2+σ112S22+σ11σ12Sδ1I1T1ωT2T1+μ¯3+σ3222+σ3122T12+σ31σ32T1δ2I1I2γ1T1I2+μ¯4+σ4222+σ4122I22+σ41σ42I2ρ1I2T2+μ¯5+σ5222+σ5122T22+σ51σ52T2δ3I1I3ρ2I2I3γ2T2I3+μ¯6+σ6222+σ6122I32+σ61σ62I3ΛSδ1I1T1δ2I1I2δ3I1I3ρ1I2T2+μ1+σ1222+i=36(μ¯i+σi222)+(σ11σ12S+σ1122S2)+β1I1+[(β2+σ41σ42)I2+σ4122I22]+[(β3+σ61σ62)I3+σ6122I32]+[(α1+σ31σ32)T1+σ3122T12]+[(α2+σ51σ52)T2+σ5122T22]. (22)

Choosing

λ1=(σ112σ212σ312σ412σ512σ612)>0,λ2=(σ122σ222σ322σ422σ522σ622)>0,λ3=184(λ16λ2)>0,

then we can obtain

LW8=(S+I1+T1+I2+T2+I3+1)23(Λμ1Sμ2I1μ3T1μ4I2μ5T2μ¯6I3)13(S+I1+T1+I2+T2+I3+1)53[(σ11S2+σ12S)2+(σ21I12+σ22I1)2+(σ31T12+σ32T1)2+(σ41I22+σ42I2)2+(σ51T22+σ52T2)2+(σ61I32+σ62I3)2]Λ(σ112S4+σ212I14+σ312T14+σ412I24+σ512T24+σ612I34)+(σ122S2+σ222I12+σ322T12+σ422I22+σ522T22+σ622I32)3(S+I1+T1+I2+T2+I3+1)2Λλ1(S4+I14+T14+I24+T24+I34)+6λ2(S2+I12+T12+I22+T22+I32)21(S2+I12+T12+I22+T22+I32+1)Λλ1(S2+I12+T12+I22+T22+I32)2+6λ2(S2+I12+T12+I22+T22+I32)84(S2+I12+T12+I22+T22+I32+1)Λλ3(S2+I12+T12+I22+T22+I32). (23)

Step 4. By similar method of deriving the reproduction number R0 of deterministic system (1), we consider the following equations

{δ1I¯1μ^3T¯1+ωT¯2=0,δ2I¯1+γ1T¯1μ^4I¯2=0,ρ1I¯2μ^5T¯2=0,δ3I¯1+ρ2I¯2+γ2T¯2μ^6I¯3=0. (24)

Let I¯1=1, then Eq. (24) have a unique solution (I¯1,T¯1,I¯2,T¯2,I¯3):=(1,ϕ3,ϕ1,ϕ4,ϕ2). Clearly, the positive constant ϕi(i=1,2,3,4) are the same as the value in R0h(ϵ). Next, we are in position to construct the stochastic ϵ0-threshold R0h(ϵ). The following compartmental proportional transformations (S˜,I˜1,T˜1,I˜2,T˜2,I˜3) is established as follows

S=Λμ^1S˜,I2=ϕ1I˜2,I3=ϕ2I˜3,T1=ϕ3T˜1,T2=ϕ4T˜2.

For simplicity and clarity of the later presentations, ϕ 1, ϕ 2, ϕ 3 and ϕ 4 equivalently follows

(i).δ1+ωϕ4=ϕ3μ^3,(ii).δ2+γ1ϕ3=ϕ1μ^4,(iii).ρ1ϕ1=ϕ4μ^5,(iv).δ3+ρ2ϕ1+γ2ϕ4=ϕ2μ^6.

In view of the inequality u1lnu0(u>0), we can derive the following results:

L(1μ^1V1)1μ^1(ΛS+μ^1+β1I1+β2I2+β3I3+α1T1+α2T2)=(1S˜1)+β1μ^1I1+β2μ^1I2+β3μ^1I3+α1μ^1T1+α2μ^1T2lnS˜+β1μ^1I1+β2μ^1I2+β3μ^1I3+α1μ^1T1+α2μ^1T2. (25)
L(μ^1ΛV2)=μ^1Λ(β1+β2I2I1+β3I3I1+α1T1I1+α2T2I1)S+μ^1μ^2Λ+μ^1σ21σ22ΛI1=(β1+β2ϕ1I˜2I1+β3ϕ2I˜3I1+α1ϕ3T˜1I1+α2ϕ4T˜2I1)S˜+μ^1μ^2Λ+μ^1σ21σ22ΛI1=(β1+β2ϕ1+β3ϕ2+α1ϕ3+α2ϕ4)+μ^1μ^2Λ[β1(S˜1)+β2ϕ1(S˜I˜2I11)+β3ϕ2(S˜I˜3I11)+α1ϕ3(S˜T˜1I11)+α2ϕ4(S˜T˜2I11)]+μ^1σ21σ22ΛI1μ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)(β1+β2ϕ1+β3ϕ2+α1ϕ3+α2ϕ4)lnS˜β2ϕ1lnI˜2β3ϕ2lnI˜3α1ϕ3lnT˜1α2ϕ4lnT˜2+(β2ϕ1+β3ϕ2+α1ϕ3+α2ϕ4)lnI1+μ^1σ21σ22ΛI1, (26)
L(ϕ3V3)=δ1I1T˜1ωϕ4T˜2T˜1+ϕ3μ^3+ϕ3σ31σ32T1+8ϕ3δ1I13ϵ(1ϵ)+8ϕ3ωT23ϵ(1ϵ)=δ1(I1T˜11)ωϕ4(T˜2T˜11)+ϕ3σ31σ32T1+8ϕ3δ1I13ϵ(1ϵ)+8ϕ3ωT23ϵ(1ϵ)δ1lnI1ωϕ4lnT˜2+(δ1+ωϕ4)lnT˜1+ϕ3σ31σ32T1+8ϕ3δ1I13ϵ(1ϵ)+8ϕ3ωT23ϵ(1ϵ), (27)
L(ϕ1V4)=δ2I1I˜2γ1T˜1I˜2+ϕ1μ^4+ϕ1σ41σ42I2+8ϕ1δ2I13ϵ(1ϵ)+8ϕ1γ1T13ϵ(1ϵ)=δ2(I1I˜21)γ1ϕ3(T˜1I˜21)+ϕ1σ41σ42I2+8ϕ1δ2I13ϵ(1ϵ)+8ϕ1γ1T13ϵ(1ϵ)δ2lnI1γ1ϕ3lnT˜1+(δ2+γ1ϕ3)lnI˜2+ϕ1σ41σ42I2+8ϕ1δ2I13ϵ(1ϵ)+8ϕ1γ1T13ϵ(1ϵ), (28)
L(ϕ4V5)=ρ1ϕ1I˜2T˜2+ϕ4μ^5+ϕ4σ51σ52T2+8ϕ4ρ1I23ϵ(1ϵ)=ρ1ϕ1(I˜2T˜21)+ϕ4σ51σ52T2+8ϕ4ρ1I23ϵ(1ϵ)ρ1ϕ1lnI˜2+ρ1ϕ1lnT˜2+ϕ4σ51σ52T2+8ϕ4ρ1I23ϵ(1ϵ), (29)
L(ϕ2V6)=δ3I1I˜3ρ2ϕ1I˜2I˜3γ2ϕ4T˜2I˜3+ϕ2μ^6+ϕ2σ61σ62I3+8ϕ2δ3I13ϵ(1ϵ)+8ϕ2ρ2I23ϵ(1ϵ)+8ϕ2γ2T23ϵ(1ϵ)=δ3(I1I˜31)ρ2ϕ1(I˜2I˜31)γ2ϕ4(T˜2I˜31)+ϕ2σ61σ62I3+8ϕ2δ3I13ϵ(1ϵ)+8ϕ2ρ2I23ϵ(1ϵ)+8ϕ2γ2T23ϵ(1ϵ)δ3lnI1ρ2ϕ1lnI˜2γ2ϕ4lnT˜2+(δ3+ρ2ϕ1+γ2ϕ4)lnI˜3+ϕ2σ61σ62I3+8ϕ2δ3I13ϵ(1ϵ)+8ϕ2ρ2I23ϵ(1ϵ)+8ϕ2γ2T23ϵ(1ϵ) (30)

Step 5. Finally, we will construct a pair of suitable non-negative C 2-stochastic Lyapunov function V(S, I 1, T 1, I 2,

T 2, I 3) and bounded domain D to prove the assumption (C 2).

Let

λ0=(σ112σ212σ312σ412σ512σ612)>0,

then a stochastic Lyapunov function V˜(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3) is given by

V˜=Mh(μ^1ΛV2+a1ϕ3V3+b1ϕ1V4+a2ϕ4V5+b2ϕ2V6+c1μ^1V1+p1T1+p2I2+q1T2+q2I3)+W7+λ0λ3W8,

where the parameters Mh>0,ai>0,bi>0,pi>0,qi>0(i=1,2) and c 1 are determined in (36) and (33) and (34), respectively. More importantly, the values of a 1, a 2, b 1, b 2 and c 1 can eliminate terms of lnS˜,lnI1,lnT˜1,lnI˜2,lnT˜2 and lnI˜3. Moreover, the simplicity of LV˜ is derived by the values of p 1, p 2, q 1 and q 2.

In view of V˜(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3) is a continuous function which follows

lim infn,(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6UnV˜(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)=+.

We can therefore construct a suitable non-negative C 2-function V(S, I 1, T 1, I 2, T 2, I 3):

V(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)=V˜(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)V˜(S0,I10,T10,I20,T20,I30),

in which (S0,I10,T10,I20,T20,I30) is the minimum value point. According to the results in (22) and (23), we have

L(W7+λ0λ3W8)ΛSδ1I1T1δ2I1I2δ3I1I3ρ1I2T2+λ0Λλ3+μ1+σ1222+i=36(μ¯i+σi222)+(β1I1σ212I12)+(σ11σ12Sσ1122S2)+[(β2+σ41σ42)I2σ4122I22]+[(β3+σ61σ62)I3σ6122I32]+[(α1+σ31σ32)T1σ3122T12]+[(α2+σ51σ52)T2σ5122T22]. (31)

For simplicity and clarity of the following proof, some positive constants are still defined as follows

m1=c1β1μ^1+μ^1σ21σ22Λ+8a1ϕ3δ13ϵ(1ϵ)+8b1ϕ1δ23ϵ(1ϵ)+8ϕ2b2δ33ϵ(1ϵ),m2=c1β2μ^1+b1ϕ1σ41σ42+8a2ϕ4ρ13ϵ(1ϵ)+8ϕ2b2ρ23ϵ(1ϵ),
m3=c1β3μ^1+b2ϕ2σ61σ62,m4=c1α1μ^1+a1ϕ3σ31σ32+8b1ϕ1γ13ϵ(1ϵ),m5=c1α2μ^1+a2ϕ2σ51σ52+8a1ϕ3ω3ϵ(1ϵ)+8ϕ2b2γ23ϵ(1ϵ).

Therefore, by (25)(31), we have

LVMh[μ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+[c1(β1+β2ϕ1+β3ϕ2+α1ϕ3+α2ϕ4)]lnS˜+[(β2ϕ1+β3ϕ2+α1ϕ3+α2ϕ4)(a1δ1+b1δ2+b2δ3)]lnI1+[a1(δ1+ωϕ4)(α1+b1γ1)ϕ3]lnT˜1+[b1(δ2+γ1ϕ3)(β2+a2ρ1+b2ρ2)ϕ1]lnI˜2+[a2ρ1ϕ1(α2+a1ω+b2γ2)ϕ4]lnT˜2+[b2(δ3+ρ2ϕ1+γ2ϕ4)β3ϕ2]lnI˜3+(m1+p1δ1+p2δ2+q2δ3)I1+(m2+q1ρ1+q2ρ2p2μ¯4)I2+(m3q2μ¯6)I3+(m4+p2γ1p1μ¯3)T1+(m5+q2γ2+p1ωq1μ¯5)T2]ΛSδ1I1T1δ2I1I2δ3I1I3ρ1I2T2+λ0Λλ3+μ1+σ1222+i=36(μ¯i+σi222)+(β1I1σ212I12)+(σ11σ12Sσ1122S2)+[(β2+σ41σ42)I2σ4122I22]+[(β3+σ61σ62)I3σ6122I32]+[(α1+σ31σ32)T1σ3122T12]+[(α2+σ51σ52)T2σ5122T22] (32)

Let the parameters a 1, a 2, b 1, b 2 and c 1 be the unique solution of the following equations

{c1(β1+β2ϕ1+β3ϕ2+α1ϕ3+α2ϕ4)=0,(β2ϕ1+β3ϕ2+α1ϕ3+α2ϕ4)(a1δ1+b1δ2+b2δ3)=0,a1(δ1+ωϕ4)(α1+b1γ1)ϕ3=0,b1(δ2+γ1ϕ3)(β2+a2ρ1+b2ρ2)ϕ1=0,a2ρ1ϕ1(α2+a1ω+b2γ2)ϕ4=0,b2(δ3+ρ2ϕ1+γ2ϕ4)β3ϕ2=0. (33)

By detailed calculation, we can derive based on (24) and (33)

c1=β1+β2ϕ1+β3ϕ2+α1ϕ3+α2ϕ4>0,b2=β3μ^6>0,a1=α1μ^4μ^5+γ1ρ1(α2+b2γ2)+γ1μ^5(β2+b2ρ2)μ^3μ^4μ^5γ1ωρ1>0,
b1=α1ρ1ω+ρ1μ^3(α2+b2γ2)+μ^3μ^5(β2+b2ρ2)μ^3μ^4μ^5γ1ωρ1>0,a2=α1ωμ^4+μ^3μ^4(α2+b2γ2)+γ1ω(β2+b2ρ2)μ^3μ^4μ^5γ1ωρ1>0.

Similarly, we assume that the other parameters p 1, p 2, q 1 and q 2 are the unique solution of the following equations

{m2+q1ρ1+q2ρ2p2μ¯4=0,m3q2μ¯6=0,m4+p2γ1p1μ¯3=0,m5+q2γ2+p1ωq1μ¯5=0. (34)

More precisely, we can also obtain

q2=m3μ¯6>0,p1=m4μ¯4μ¯5+γ1ρ1(m5+q2γ2)+γ1μ¯5(m2+q2ρ2)μ¯3μ¯4μ¯5γ1ωρ1>0,
p2=ρ1ωm4+ρ1μ¯3(m5+q2γ2)+μ¯3μ¯5(m2+q2ρ2)μ¯3μ¯4μ¯5γ1ωρ1>0,q1=ωm4μ¯4+μ¯3μ¯4(m5+q2γ2)+γ1ω(m2+q2ρ2)μ¯3μ¯4μ¯5γ1ωρ1>0.

By (32)(34), we therefore get

LVMhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)ΛSδ1I1T1δ2I1I2δ3I1I3ρ1I2T2+f1(S)+f2(I1)+f3(I2)+f4(I3)+f5(T1)+f6(T2), (35)

where

f1(S)=λ0Λλ3+μ1+σ1222+i=36(μ¯i+σi222)+σ11σ12Sσ1122S2,f2(I1)=[Mh(m1+p1δ1+p2δ2+q2δ3)+β1]I1σ212I12,
f3(I2)=(β2+σ41σ42)I2σ4122I22,f4(I3)=(β3+σ61σ62)I3σ6122I32,
f5(T1)=(α1+σ31σ32)T1σ3122T12,f6(T2)=(α2+σ51σ52)T2σ5122T22.

Moreover, Mh is assumed to satisfy the following inequality

Mhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+f1u+f3u+f4u+f5u+f6u2. (36)

Next a suitable compact subset D is constructed as follows,

D={(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6|κS1κ,κI11κ,κ2T11κ2,κ2I21κ2,κ3T21κ3,κ2I31κ2}

where κ > 0 is a sufficient small number satisfying the following inequalities

2+f2uJ1κ1, (37)
2+J2σ2122κ21, (38)
2+[Mh(m1+p1δ1+p2δ2+q2δ3)+β1]κ1, (39)
Mhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+f2u+f3u+f4u+f5u+f6u+J3σ1124κ21, (40)
Mhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+f1u+f2u+f4u+f5u+f6u+J4σ4124κ41, (41)
Mhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+f1u+f2u+f3u+f5u+f6u+J5σ6124κ41, (42)
Mhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+f1u+f2u+f3u+f4u+f6u+J6σ3124κ41, (43)
Mhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+f1u+f2u+f3u+f4u+f5u+J7σ5124κ61, (44)

where the constants Ji(i=1,2,3,4,5,6,7) are determined later.

Clearly, the bounded set Dc=R+6D can be divided into the following twelve subsets:

D1c={(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6|S>1κ},D2c={(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6|I1>1κ},
D3c={(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6|S<κ},D4c={(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6|I1<κ},
D5c={(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6|I2>1κ2},D6c={(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6|I3>1κ2},
D7c={(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6|T1>1κ2},D8c={(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6|T2>1κ3},
D9c={(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6|I1κ,I2<κ2},D10c={(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6|I1κ,I3<κ2},
D11c={(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6|I1κ,T1<κ2},D12c={(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6|I2κ2,T2<κ3}.

In other words, Dc=D1cD2cD3cD4cD5cD6cD7cD8cD9cD10cD11cD12c. Next we are devoted to prove

LV1,forany(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)Dic(i=1,2,,12).

Case 1. If (S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)D3cD9cD10cD11cD12c, we have by (36) and (37)

LVMhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+f1u+f2u+f3u+f4u+f5u+f6uΛSδ1I1T1δ2I1I2δ3I1I3ρ1I2T22+f2u(Λκδ1κκ2δ2κκ2δ3κκ2ρ1κ2κ3)2+f2uΛδ1δ2δ3ρ1κ:=2+f2uJ1κ1,

where J1=(Λδ1δ2δ3ρ1)>0.

Case 2. For any (S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)D2c, it follows by (36) and (38)

LVMhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+f1u+i=36fiu+[[Mh(m1+p1δ1+p2δ2+q2δ3)+β1]I1σ2122I12]σ2122I122+J2σ2122I122+J2σ2122κ21,

where J2=sup(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6{[Mh(m1+p1δ1+p2δ2+q2δ3)+β1]I1σ2122I12}.

Case 3. If (S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)D4c, we obtain by (36) and (39)

LVMhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+f1u+i=36fiu+[Mh(m1+p1δ1+p2δ2+q2δ3)+β1]I12+[Mh(m1+p1δ1+p2δ2+q2δ3)+β1]κ1.

Case 4. For any (S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)D1c, it follows from (40)

LVMhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+i=26fiu+[λ0Λλ3+μ1+σ1222+i=26(μid+σi222)+σ11σ12Sσ1124S2]σ1124S2Mhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+f2u+f3u+f4u+f5u+f6u+J3σ1124κ21,

where J3=sup(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6{λ0Λλ3+μ1+σ1222+i=36(μ¯i+σi222)+σ11σ12Sσ1124S2}.

Case 5. If (S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)D5c, in view of (41), we notice

LVMhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+f1u+f2u+i=46fiu+[(β2+σ41σ42)I2σ4124I22]σ4124I22Mhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+f1u+f2u+f4u+f5u+f6u+J4σ4124κ41,

where J4=sup(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6{(β2+σ41σ42)I2σ4124I22}.

Case 6. For any (S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)D6c, in view of (42), it satisfies

LVMhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+f1u+f2u+f3u+f5u+f6u+[(β3+σ61σ62)I3σ6124I32]σ6124I32Mhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+f1u+f2u+f3u+f5u+f6u+J5σ6124κ41,

where J5=sup(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6{(β3+σ61σ62)I3σ6124I32}.

Case 7. If (S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)D7c, it follows from (43)

LVMhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+f1u+f2u+f3u+f4u+f6u+[(α1+σ31σ32)T1σ3124T12]σ3124T12Mhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+f1u+f2u+f3u+f4u+f6u+J6σ3124κ41,

where J6=sup(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6{(α1+σ31σ32)T1σ3124T12}.

Case 8. For any (S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)D8c, we obtain by (44)

LVMhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+f1u+f2u+f3u+f4u+f5u+[(α2+σ51σ52)T2σ5124T22]σ5124T22Mhμ^1μ^2Λ(R0h(ϵ)1)+f1u+f2u+f3u+f4u+f5u+J7σ5124κ61,

where J7=sup(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)R+6{(α2+σ51σ52)T2σ5124T22}.

By the above analysis, we can equivalently obtain

LV1,forany(S,I1,T1,I2,T2,I3)Dc.

Consequently, the condition (C 2) in Lemma 3 also holds. If R0H>1, that is R0h(ϵ)>1, we can derive that the solution (S(t), I 1(t), T 1(t), I 2(t), T 2(t), I 3(t)) of system (2) has a unique ergodic stationary distribution ϖ( · ) from Steps 2 to 5. Thus the proof is confirmed. □

Remark 1

Our new method is mainly reflected in Steps 2–4. In Step 2, we construct a ϵ0-threshold R0h(ϵ) which is similar to R0H, then we prove that R0h(ϵ)>1 while ϵ < ϵ0 and R0H>1. Step 3 is devoted to eliminate the influence of second-order fluctuation by new Lyapunov function type Wk(k=1,2,,6). By means of a proportional transformation between (S, I 1, T 1, I 2, T 2, I 3) and (S˜,I˜1,T˜1,I˜2,T˜2,I˜3) in Step 4, we obtain the ϵ0-threshold R0h(ϵ). According to Eqs. (33) and (34), we can completely verify the condition (C 2) if R0h(ϵ)>1. By Theorem 1, the unique ergodic stationary distribution ϖ( · ) (stochastic positive equilibrium state) of system (2) is obtained under R0H>1. From the expression of R0H, we clearly understand that the influence of all second-order perturbations is only embodied in σ 11 and σ 21. It reveals that the corresponding behavior of the susceptible people and HIV acute infection individuals play a significant role in persistence of system (2). In fact, epidemiology study and AIDS epidemic statistics reported by WHO exactly prove this conclusion. As we know, the persistence of system (2) is similar to the endemic equilibrium P* of deterministic model (1). We still notice that R0H=R0 when all environmental perturbations σij=0(i=1,2,3,4,5,6;j=1,2). Thus we can derive the unified criterion of the persistence of systems (1) and (2). Moreover, the corresponding threshold value of system (1) with linear perturbation is described as follows

R0H=Λ(β1+β2ψ1+β3ψ2+α1ψ3+α2ψ4)(μ1+σ1222)(μ¯2+σ2222),

where ψk(k=1,2,3,4) are the same as the above. Similarly, the result of linear noise condition can be validated by the previous technique, see [23], [30].

4. Extinction of system (2)

If R01, the global asymptotic stability of P 0 means that AIDS epidemic of deterministic system (1) will go to extinction. Based on the value of R0, we will introduce the corresponding extinction result of system (2) in this section.

Define

R0E=0|xΛμ1|π(x)dx+Λ(R01)μ1(η1I{R0>1}+η2I{R01})σ222σ322σ422σ522σ62210,

where IA is the indicator function with respect to set A. η 1 and η 2 are given by

η1=β1β2β3α1α2ϑ0ϑ1ϑ2ϑ3ϑ4>0,η2=β1β2β3α1α2ϑ0ϑ1ϑ2ϑ3ϑ4>0. (45)

Theorem 2

For any initial value (S(0),I1(0),T1(0),I2(0),T2(0),I3(0))R+6, if R0E<0, then the solution (S(t), I 1(t), T 1(t), I 2(t), T 2(t), I 3(t)) of system (2) follows

lim supt1tln(ϑ0I1(t)+ϑ1T1(t)+ϑ2I2(t)+ϑ3T2(t)+ϑ4I3(t))R0E<0,a.s.,

where the positive constants ϑi(i=0,1,2,3,4) are determined in (49) (52) . It is equivalent to the following result

limtIi(t)=limtTj(t)=0,a.s.(i=1,2,3;j=1,2)

which implies that AIDS epidemic will be exponentially eradicated with probability one (a.s.).

Proof

An equivalent C 2-function P(t) is constructed by

P(t)=ϑ0I1(t)+ϑ1T1(t)+ϑ2I2(t)+ϑ3T2(t)+ϑ4I3(t).

Applying Ito^’s formula to P(t), one has

d(lnP)=L(lnP)dt+1P[ϑ0(σ21I12+σ22I1)dB2(t)+ϑ1(σ31T12+σ32T1)dB3(t)+ϑ2(σ41I22+σ42I2)dB4(t)+ϑ3(σ51T22+σ52T2)dB5(t)+ϑ4(σ61I32+σ62I3)dB6(t)], (46)

where

L(lnP)=1P[ϑ0(i=13βiIi+j=12αjTj)Sϑ0μ¯2I1+ϑ1(δ1I1+ωT2μ¯3T1)+ϑ2(δ2I1+γ1T1μ¯4I2)+ϑ3(ρ1I2μ¯5T2)+ϑ4(δ3I1+ρ2I2+γ2T2μ¯6I3)]ϑ02(σ21I12+σ22I1)22P2ϑ12(σ31T12+σ32T1)22P2ϑ22(σ41I22+σ42I2)22P2ϑ32(σ51T22+σ52T2)22P2ϑ42(σ61I32+σ62I3)22P2=1P[ϑ0(i=13βiIi+j=12αjTj)S(ϑ0μ¯2ϑ1δ1ϑ2δ2ϑ4δ3)I1(ϑ1μ¯3ϑ2γ1)T1(ϑ2μ¯4ϑ3ρ1ϑ4ρ2)I2(ϑ3μ¯5ϑ1ωϑ4γ2)T2ϑ4μ¯6I3]ϑ02(σ21I12+σ22I1)22P2ϑ12(σ31T12+σ32T1)22P2ϑ22(σ41I22+σ42I2)22P2ϑ32(σ51T22+σ52T2)22P2ϑ42(σ61I32+σ62I3)22P2. (47)

Let ϑi(i=0,1,2,3,4) be a solution of the following equations

{ϑ0μ¯2ϑ1δ1ϑ2δ2ϑ4δ3=Λβ1μ1,ϑ1μ¯3ϑ2γ1=Λα1μ1,ϑ2μ¯4ϑ3ρ1ϑ4ρ2=Λβ2μ1,ϑ3μ¯5ϑ1ωϑ4γ2=Λα2μ1,ϑ4μ¯6=Λβ3μ1, (48)

In fact, the solution of (48) is unique. We can still calculate

ϑ4=Λβ3μ1μ¯6>0,ϑ1=Λ[α1μ¯4μ¯5+γ1ρ1(α2+ϑ4ρ2μ1)+γ1μ¯5(β2+ϑ4ρ2μ1)]μ1(μ¯3μ¯4μ¯5γ1ωρ1)>0, (49)
ϑ2=Λ[α1ρ1ω+ρ1μ¯3(α2+ϑ4ρ2μ1)+μ¯3μ¯5(β2+ϑ4ρ2μ1)]μ1(μ¯3μ¯4μ¯5γ1ωρ1)>0, (50)
ϑ3=Λ[α1μ¯4ω+μ¯3μ¯4(α2+ϑ4ρ2μ1)+γ1ω(β2+ϑ4ρ2μ1)]μ1(μ¯3μ¯4μ¯5γ1ωρ1)>0, (51)

Therefore, by (48)(51), we can obtain

ϑ0=1μ¯2(Λβ1μ1+ϑ1δ1+ϑ2δ2+ϑ4δ3)=Λβ1μ1μ¯2+Λα1μ1μ¯2(δ1μ4μ¯5+δ2ρ1ωμ¯3μ¯4μ¯5γ1ωρ1)+Λα2μ1μ¯2(ρ1(δ2μ¯3+δ1γ1)μ¯3μ¯4μ¯5γ1ωρ1)+Λβ2μ1μ¯2(μ¯5(δ2μ¯3+δ1γ1)μ¯3μ¯4μ¯5γ1ωρ1)+Λβ3μ1μ¯2(δ3μ¯6+ρ1ρ2(δ2μ¯3+δ1γ1)μ¯6(μ¯3μ¯4μ¯5γ1ωρ1)+γ2μ¯5(δ2μ¯3+δ1γ1)μ¯6(μ¯3μ¯4μ¯5γ1ωρ1))=Λμ1μ¯2(β1+β2φ1+β3φ2+α1φ3+α2φ4)=R0>0. (52)

By (49)(52), then (47) can be rewritten as

L(lnP)=1P[R0(i=13βiIi+j=12αjTj)SΛμ1(i=13βiIi+j=12αjTj)]ϑ02(σ21I12+σ22I1)22P2ϑ12(σ31T12+σ32T1)22P2ϑ22(σ41I22+σ42I2)22P2ϑ32(σ51T22+σ52T2)22P2ϑ42(σ61I32+σ62I3)22P2.

In view of (5) and (45), one can get that

L(lnP)=1P[R0(i=13βiIi+j=12αjTj)(SΛμ1)+Λ(R01)μ1(i=13βiIi+j=12αjTj)]ϑ02(σ21I12+σ22I1)22P2ϑ12(σ31T12+σ32T1)22P2ϑ22(σ41I22+σ42I2)22P2ϑ32(σ51T22+σ52T2)22P2ϑ42(σ61I32+σ62I3)22P2R0η1(S¯Λμ1)+Λη1μ1(R01)I{R0>1}+Λη2μ1(R01)I{R01}ϑ02(σ21I12+σ22I1)22P2ϑ12(σ31T12+σ32T1)22P2ϑ22(σ41I22+σ42I2)22P2ϑ32(σ51T22+σ52T2)22P2ϑ42(σ61I32+σ62I3)22P2R0η1|S¯Λμ1|+Λ(R01)μ1(η1I{R0>1}+η2I{R01})ϑ02(σ21I12+σ22I1)22P2ϑ12(σ31T12+σ32T1)22P2ϑ22(σ41I22+σ42I2)22P2ϑ32(σ51T22+σ52T2)22P2ϑ42(σ61I32+σ62I3)22P2,a.s. (53)

Integrating from 0 to t and dividing by t on both sides of (46), then it follows by (53)

lnP(t)tlnP(0)t+R0η1t0t|S¯(τ)Λμ1|dτ+Λ(R01)μ1(η1I{R0>1}+η2I{R01})+1ti=15(Mi(t)Ni(t)),a.s., (54)

where

Mj1(t)=0tϑj2(σj1Ij22(τ)+σj2Ij2(τ))P(τ)dBj(τ),Nj1(t)=0tϑj22(σj1Ij22(τ)+σj2Ij2(τ))22P2(τ)dτ(j=2,4,6)
Mk1(t)=0tϑk2(σk1Tk122(τ)+σk2Tk12(τ))P(τ)dBk(τ),Nk1(t)=0tϑk22(σk1Tk122(τ)+σk2Tk12(τ))22P2(τ)dτ(k=3,5)

By means of the exponential martingale inequality described in subsection (I) in Appendix A, let the variable ε ∈ (0, 1), by choosing the parameters T=n,α1=ε,β=2lnnε, then we can obtain

P(sup0tn[Mi(t)εNi(t)]>2lnnε)1n2,(i=1,2,3,4,5)

Making using of Borel-Cantelli lemma [20], we get that for almost all ωt ∈ Ω, there exists an integer nt(ωt) such that for all t(n1,n],nnt(ωt), a.s., it follows

Mi(t)εNi(t)+2lnnε,(i=1,2,3,4,5)

which means

1ti=15(Mi(t)Ni(t))1εti=15Ni(t)+10lnnεt1εt0tϑ02σ222I12(u)+ϑ12σ322T12(u)+ϑ22σ422I22(u)+ϑ32σ522T22(u)+ϑ42σ622I32(u)2(ϑ0I1(u)+ϑ1T1(u)+ϑ2I2(u)+ϑ3T2(u)+ϑ4I3(u))2dτ+10lnnε(n1)1εt0tϑ02σ222I12(u)+ϑ12σ322T12(u)+ϑ22σ422I22(u)+ϑ32σ522T22(uu)+ϑ42σ622I32(u)10(ϑ02I12(u)+ϑ12T12(u)+ϑ22I22(u)+ϑ32T22(u)+ϑ42I32(u))dτ+10lnnε(n1)(1ε)(σ222σ322σ422σ522σ622)10+10lnnε(n1). (55)

Moreover, by ergodicity property of the solution S¯(t) of system (4), we obtain

limt1t0t|S¯(τ)Λμ1|dτ=0|xΛμ1|π(x)dx,a.s. (56)

Taking the superior limit of t on both sides of (54), which means n+, then it follows from (55) and (56)

lim suptlnP(t)tlimtR0η1t0t|S¯(τ)Λμ1|dτ+Λ(R01)μ1(η1I{R0>1}+η2I{R01})+limn10lnnε(n1)(1ε)(σ222σ322σ422σ522σ622)10=0|xΛμ1|π(x)dx+Λ(R01)μ1(η1I{R0>1}+η2I{R01})(1ε)(σ222σ322σ422σ522σ622)10,a.s.

In view of the arbitrariness of ε ∈ (0, 1), let ε0+, one has

lim suptlnP(t)t0|xΛμ1|π(x)dx+Λ(R01)μ1(η1I{R0>1}+η2I{R01})σ222σ322σ422σ522σ62210=R0E<0,a.s.,

which means limtP(t)=0,a.s., that is to say,

limtIi(t)=0,a.s.,limtTj(t)=0,a.s.(i=1,2,3;j=1,2)

Therefore, AIDS epidemic of system (2) will exponentially go to extinction in a long term. The proof is completed. □

Remark 2

Following the method of undetermined coefficients used in Step 5, we cheerfully construct the result (R01) by Eq. (48). By means of exponential martingale inequality and ε0+, we still eliminate the influence of second-order perturbation. From the corresponding expression of R0E, we easily get that R0E=0|xΛμ1|π(x)dxΛη2(1R0)μ1σ222σ322σ422σ522σ62210 if R01. Assume that R0>1, it means that R0E=0|xΛμ1|π(x)dx+Λη1(R01)μ1σ222σ322σ422σ522σ62210. Hence we can conclude that the condition R01 is more likely to lead to the disease extinction by comparison with R0>1. Furthermore, we derive that the extinction result mainly depends on the large linear perturbations σk1(k=2,3,4,5,6) instead of second-order noises.

5. Examples and numerical simulations

In view of the higher-order method developed by Milstein [32], we will introduce some examples and numerical simulations to validate the above theoretical results in this section. The corresponding discretization equation of system (2) is given by

{Sk+1=Sk+[Λμ1Sk(β1I1k+β2I2k+β3I3k+α1T1k+α2T2k)Sk]Δt+(σ11Sk+σ12)SkΔtξ1,k+Sk2(2σ112(Sk)2+3σ11σ12Sk+σ122)(ξ1,k21)Δt,I1k+1=I1k+[(β1I1k+β2I2k+β3I3k+α1T1k+α2T2k)Skμ¯2I1k]Δt,+(σ21I1k+σ22)I1kΔtξ2,k+I1k2(2σ212(I1k)2+3σ21σ22I1k+σ222)(ξ2,k21)Δt,T1k+1=T1k+(δ1I1kμ¯3T1k+ωT2k)Δt+(σ31T1k+σ32)T1kΔtξ3,k+T1k2(2σ312(T1k)2+3σ31σ32T1k+σ322)(ξ3,k21)Δt,I2k+1=I2k+(δ2I1k+γ1T1kμ¯4I2k)Δt+(σ41I2k+σ42)I2kΔtξ4,k+I2k2(2σ412(I2k)2+3σ41σ42I2k+σ422)(ξ4,k21)Δt,T2k+1=T2k+(ρ1I2μ¯5T2)Δt+(σ51T2k+σ52)T2kΔtξ5,k+T2k2(2σ512(T2k)2+3σ51σ52T2k+σ522)(ξ5,k21)Δt,I3k+1=I3k+(δ3I1+ρ2I2+γ2T2μ¯6I3)Δt+(σ61I3k+σ62)I3kΔtξ6,k+I3k2(2σ612(I3k)2+3σ61σ62I3k+σ622)(ξ6,k21)Δt,

where the time increment Δt > 0, ξi,k(i=1,2,3,4,5,6) are separately six independent Gaussian random variables which follow the Gaussian distribution N(0, 1) for k=0,1,2,,n. For sake of the following analysis, we assume that the initial value (S(0),I1(0),T1(0),I2(0),T2(0),I3(0))=(0.5,1.2,0.8,0.2,0.2,0.2). In addition, the bio-mathematical parameters in system (1) are presented as follow.

Λ=0.5,μ1=0.1,μ2=0.15,μ3=0.12,μ4=0.2,μ5=0.18,μ6=0.28,β1=0.2,β2=0.22,β3=0.26,α1=0.17,
α2=0.202,δ1=0.2,δ2=0.23,δ3=0.08,ρ1=0.28,ρ2=0.25,γ1=0.18,γ2=0.21,η=0.34,ω=0.14.

In this section, we mainly focus on the following two results:

  • (i)

    The existence of the unique ergodic stationary distribution when R0H>1.

  • (ii)

    The dynamical behavior of the AIDS of system (2) if R0E<0.

Example 1

Let the second-order perturbations (σ11,σ21,σ31,σ41,σ51,σ61)=(0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1) and the linear perturbations (σ12,σ22,σ32,σ42,σ52,σ62)=(0.1,7.1,7.1,7.1,7.1,7.1). Thus we can compute

R0=Λ(β1+β2φ1+β3φ2+α1φ3+α2φ4)μ1μ¯2=4.63886>1,0|xΛμ1|π(x)dx=2.448263,
η1=2.256095,R0E=0|xΛμ1|π(x)dx+Λη1(R01)μ1σ222σ322σ422σ522σ62210=0.336642<0.

It means that there exists a unique endemic equilibrium of determined model (1), which is globally asymptotically stable. In contrast, the AIDS epidemic of system (2) will be exponentially eradicated in a long term by Theorem 2. Fig. 1 can validate them.

Example 2

For the environmental noise intensities (σ11,σ21,σ31,σ41,σ51,σ61)=(0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01) and (σ12,σ22,σ32,σ42,σ52,σ62)=(0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05), we still calculate

R0H=Λ(β1+β2ψ1+β3ψ2+α1ψ3+α2ψ4)(μ1+σ1222+2Λ2σ1123+2Λσ11σ12)(μ¯2+σ2222+2Λ2σ2123)=2.22788>1.

Based on Theorem 1, we can obtain that there exists the unique stationary distribution π( · ) which has ergodicity property. It means that the AIDS epidemic of system (2) will be persistent. Fig. 2 and Fig. 3 can validate it.

Fig. 1.

Fig. 1

The left figure: The simulation of the number of groups S(t), I1(t), T1(t), I2(t), T2(t) and I3(t) in system (1). The right figure: The simulations of the solution of system (2) with the initial value (S(0),I1(0),T1(0),I2(0),T2(0),I3(0))=(0.5,1.2,0.8,0.2,0.2,0.2) and the environmental noise intensities (σ11,σ12,σ21,σ22,σ31,σ32,σ41,σ42,σ51,σ52,σ61,σ62)=(0.1,0.1,0.1,7.1,0.1,7.1,0.1,7.1,0.1,7.1,0.1,7.1).

Fig. 2.

Fig. 2

The left column reflects the simulation of number variations of S(t), I1(t) and T1(t) of system (2) with the initial value (S(0),I1(0),T1(0),I2(0),T2(0),I3(0))=(0.5,1.2,0.8,0.2,0.2,0.2) and the noise intensities given in Example 2. The right column reveals the relevant histogram of density functions of the classes S(t), I1(t) and T1(t).

Fig. 3.

Fig. 3

The left figure shows the simulation of quantity variances of I2(t), T2(t) and I3(t) in system (2) with the initial value (S(0),I1(0),T1(0),I2(0),T2(0),I3(0))=(0.5,1.2,0.8,0.2,0.2,0.2) and the noise intensities given in Example 2. The right figure reveals the relevant histogram of density functions of the individuals I2(t), T2(t) and I3(t).

From Example 1, we notice that these quadratic noises are all small and σk2σk1=70>>1(k=2,3,,6). Then the result R0E<0 holds and the AIDS epidemic extinction of stochastic system (2) is obtained. Furthermore, By taking the small linear perturbation and second-order noise into consideration, we can derive the existence of a unique ergodic stationary distribution ϖ( · ) when R0H>1. The above numerical simulations show that the big white noise leads to the disease extinction while the small white noise guarantees the persistence of AIDS epidemic.

6. Discussions and main parameter analysis

6.1. Result discussions

In the real world, the spread and development of many infectious diseases have inevitably affected by the environmental fluctuation, such as Ebola, Cholera and COVID-19. The nonlinear environmental variations have a great property to explain the realistic dynamical phenomenon of epidemics. Next, we reasonably take three pathological stages (i.e. I 1, I 2, I 3) of AIDS patients into consideration. Additionally, the compartments I 1, I 2 and I 3 under treatment are introduced to keep in line with the actual situation. Thus our paper focuses on a stochastic staged progression AIDS model with the corresponding staged treatment and second-order perturbation. In contrast, by means of the previous theory and existing method, like [23], [25], [30], [31], [33], it is fifficult to obtain the suitable results of stationary distribution and extinction of more realistic stochastic system (2). The main difficulties are described by

  • (i)

    Eliminating the influence of second-order perturbations.

  • (ii)

    Acquiring the stochastic threshold which is similar to R0 only if the linear perturbation is taken into account.

  • (iii)

    The criterion for judging whether the corresponding dynamical results are appropriate or inappropriate.

Thus these problems need to be handled in this paper. Considering the unique ergodic stationary distribution and positive recurrence, we creatively introduce a stochastic ϵ0-threshold R0h(ϵ) of ϵ0-threshold theory defined in Step 2. Next, we construct a kind of new Lyapunov function to eliminate the relevant square terms of all compartments of system (2). Then problem (i) is completely solved. In view of the proportional transformation described in Step 4, we ultimately prove the assumption (C 2) of Lemma 3 under R0h(ϵ)>1. In other words, we indirectly acquire the existence and uniqueness of stationary distribution which has ergodicity property if R0H>1. Hence problem (ii) is also handled. More importantly, R0H is a comprehensive result. Not only does it unified the forms of the reproduction number R0, linear and second-order perturbations, but it reveals that the high-order perturbation has no effect on linear noise condition. To further verify these properties of our results, the corresponding reproduction number and stochastic threshold of stationary distribution in Liu and Jiang [29] are respectively given by R0=βΛμ1(μ2+γ+α) and R0s=βΛ(μ1+σ112+2Λσ12σ11)(μ2+γ+α+σ2122), where σk1(k=1,2) are linear perturbations and σi2(i=1,2) are second-order fluctuations. Obviously, the term 2Λσ12σ11 indicates that σ 11 ≠ 0. It reveals the imperfection of result. Moreover, if σ12=σ21=0, we easily derive that R0sR0. Consequently, the above threshold R0s is unreasonable.

Focusing on the AIDS epidemic extinction of system (2), by the exponential martingale inequality introduced in Mao [20], we similarly eliminate the influence of second-order perturbation. In view of the method of undetermined coefficients used in Step 5 and value of R0, we obtain that the disease will exponentially go to extinction with probability one if R0E<0.

Finally, we shall state that our new method and relevant theory are general and universal for current stochastic epidemic models, such as [23], [30], [33], [34], [35]. That is to say, the great dynamics of these complicated stochastic systems under second-order perturbation can be similarly obtained by means of our new theory.

6.2. The parameter analysis of R0H

In view of Lemmas 2 and 3, we obtain the sufficient condition for the existence of the unique ergodic stationary distribution ϖ( · ), which is described by

R0H=Λ(β1+β2ψ1+β3ψ2+α1ψ3+α2ψ4)(μ1+σ1222+2Λ2σ1123+2Λσ11σ12)(μ¯2+σ2222+2Λ2σ2123)>1.

From the expression of R0H, we easily notice that the result of R0H>1 is derived if the linear noises σk2(k=1,2,,6) and the second-perturbations σ 11, σ 21 are all small. Let Λ0+ or Λ, we still get that R0H0. Thus it means that persistence of AIDS will not be derived for the sufficient small or large recruitment rate in system (2). In addition, if we can take effective measures to reduce the movement of susceptible people and isolate those who are infected, then the disease will go to extinction in a certain term. In other words, the sufficient small βi(i=1,2,3) and αj(j=1,2) lead to the result of R0H<1. For example, reasonable joint prevention and control greatly stopped the spread of COVID-19 in 2020.

6.3. The parameter analysis of R0E

By Theorem 2, we establish the sufficient condition for AIDS epidemic extinction of system (2), which is given by

R0E=0|xΛμ1|π(x)dx+Λ(R01)μ1(η1I{R0>1}+η2I{R01})σ222σ322σ422σ522σ62210<0.

Clearly, the result R0E<0 can be obtained by the large linear perturbations σk2(k=2,3,4,5,6). Moreover, we realize that 0|xΛμ1|π(x)dx is less than a given constant by a small stochastic fluctuation of S(t). Thus the dynamical behavior of the susceptible individuals has a great impact on the disease eradication. In general, we can conclude the fact that large fluctuation leads to the disease eradication but small white noise brings about AIDS persistence. In view of the expressions of R0H and R0E, not only do they reveal that the dynamical effect of the second-order noises is only reflected in the susceptible and HIV acute infection individuals, but also they show that it is difficult for us to eliminate AIDS without the effective vaccine.

At the end of this paper, several important viewpoints shall be mentioned. Theorems 1 and 2 present the relevant results of stationary distribution and extinction, respectively. However, considering the environmental regime which is effected by factors such as temperature and humidity, we shall consider the corresponding stochastic staged progression AIDS model with staged treatment and regime switching. Furthermore, there is a value gap between R0H and R0E. Due to the limitation of high-dimensional epidemic model (i.e. system (2)) and our present theory, we have a difficulty obtaining a more accurate criterion of AIDS extinction. Focusing on the result of ergodic stationary distribution developed by our new method, we will be devoted to perfect the form R0E, which is regarded as our future work.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

Bingtao Han: Validation, Software, Formal analysis, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing. Daqing Jiang: Conceptualization, Investigation, Methodology, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing. Tasawar Hayat: Methodology, Investigation, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing. Ahmed Alsaedi: Conceptualization, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing. Bashir Ahmad: Investigation, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing.

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Acknowledgments

This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 11871473) and Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation (Nos. ZR2019MA010, ZR2019MA006).

Appendix A

(I). (The exponential martingale inequality): Assume that g=(g1,,gn)L2(R+1,R1×n), and let T, α, β be any positive numbers. B(t) denotes an n-dimensional standard Brownian motion defining on the complete probability space {Ω,Γ,{Γt}t0,P}, then

P(sup0tT[0tg(s)dB(s)α20t|g(s)|2ds]>β)eαβ.

(II). (The proof of Lemma 1): (1). If x ≥ 0, we notice that

x3(x12)(x2+1)=12x2x+12=12(x1)20,

in which the sign of the above inequality holds if and only if x=1.

(2). For any x ≥ 0, we have

x4(34x214)(x2+1)=14x412x2+14=14(x21)20,

where the sign of the inequality (ii) also holds if and only if x=1.

Consequently, the results (i) and (ii) are obtained. This completes the proof.

Appendix B

For an n-dimensional stochastic differential equation

dY(t)=f(Y(t),t)dt+g(Y(t),t)dB(t)fortt0,

with the initial value Y(0)=Y0Rn, let B(t) be an n-dimensional standard Brownian motion defining on complete probability space {Ω,Γ,{Γt}t0,P}. An important differential operator L with respect to the solution Y(t)=(y1(t),y2(t),,yn(t)) is given by

L=t+k=1nfk(Y(t),t)yk+12i,j=1n[gT(Y(t),t)g(Y(t),t)]ij2yiyj.

If the operator L act on a stochastic function VC2,1(Rn×[t0,];R+1), we have

LV(Y(t),t)=Vt(Y(t),t)+Vy(Y(t),t)f(Y(t),t)+12trace[gT(Y(t),t)Vyy(Y(y),t)g(Y(t),t)],

where Vt=Vt, Vy=(Vy1,,Vyn), Vyy=(2Vyiyj)n×n. Let Y(t)Rn, one has

dV(Y(t),t)=LV(Y(t),t)dt+Vy(Y(t),t)g(Y(t),t)dB(t).

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