Table 1.
Model Parameters for NVP Scenarios with the Same Parameters for Both Otherwise Smokers and Otherwise Quitters for Cohort 30 and 50 in 2012 by Gender and Measure
| Gender & Use | Male 25 day use | Female 25 day use | Male 10 day use | Female 10 day use | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cohort age in 2012 | Age 30 | Age 50 | Age 30 | Age 50 | Age 30 | Age 50 | Age 30 | Age 50 |
| NVP Use Rate by Exclusive Smokers Each Year | ||||||||
| % NVP use by smokers in the initial year | 6.0%* | 4.0%* | 4.0%* | 4.0%* | 8.5%* | 5.5%* | 6.5%* | 6.5%* |
| Decay rate of NVP use in each of the following years | 80%, 100% | 80%, 100% | 80%, 100% | 80%, 100% | 80%, 100% | 80%, 100% | 80%, 100% | 80%, 100% |
| % dual use among NVP users** | 75%* | 65%* | 65%* | 65%* | 65%* | 55%* | 75%* | 75%* |
| Transitions After the First Year of NVP Use | ||||||||
| Exclusive NVP to no use | 5%, 20% | 5%, 20% | 5%, 20% | 5%, 20% | 5%, 20% | 5%, 20% | 5%, 20% | 5%, 20% |
| Dual to exclusive NVP | 5%, 20% | 5%, 20% | 5%, 20% | 5%, 20% | 5%, 20% | 5%, 20% | 5%, 20% | 5%, 20% |
| Relative Risks with NVP Use Relative to Exclusive Cigarette Use | ||||||||
| Exclusive NVP use | 5%, 10% | 5%, 10% | 5%, 10% | 5%, 10% | 5%, 10% | 5%, 10% | 5%, 10% | 5%, 10% |
| Dual NVP Use | 80%, 100% | 80%, 100% | 80%, 100% | 80%, 100% | 80%, 100% | 80%, 100% | 80%, 100% | 80%, 100% |
*
Scenarios were also considered where NVP use rates and the percent dual are halved for otherwise quitters.
**
The percent dual use is measured as the number of dual users (current smokers using NVPs) divided by the number of smokers one year ago from Table 2. The percent of exclusive NVP use (as former smokers) is estimated as 100% minus the percent dual use.