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. 2020 Aug 10;192(37):E1053–E1064. doi: 10.1503/cmaj.200990

Table 4:

Summary of model outputs for the 4 scenarios studied with extended school closures*

Variable Minimal control Maintained physical distancing Enhanced case detection and contact tracing Combined interventions
Total attack rate, % (95% CrI) 54.7 (0.02–57.2) 41.0 (0.04–42.6) 0.3 (0.05–22.5) 0.3 (0.03–1.0)
Clinical attack rate, % (95% CrI) 33.5 (0.02–35.1) 25.1 (0.02–26.2) 0.2 (0.04–13.7) 0.19 (0.0–0.6)
Asymptomatic attack rate, % (95% CrI) 21.1 (0.0–22.1) 15.8 (0.01–16.7) 0.1 (0.02–8.8) 0.11 (0.01–0.4)
Proportion of asymptomatic cases of total cases, % (95% CrI) 38.5 (16.7–42.6) 38.7 (31.5–43.9) 38.1 (28.6–43.5) 37.3 (25.0–44.5)
Clinical cases that are mild (not admitted to hospital), % (95% CrI) 89.0 (78.0–93.2) 89.5 (80.0–91.4) 89.8 (81.2–94.2) 89.9 (81.2–94.7)
Clinical cases admitted to hospital (includes ICU), % (95% CrI) 11.0 (6.8–22.0) 10.5 (8.6–20.0) 10.2 (5.8–18.8) 10.1 (5.3–18.8)
Clinical cases admitted into the ICU, % (95% CrI) 2.8 (0.0–6.2) 2.7 (0.0–8.7) 2.8 (0.9–12.5) 2.4 (0.0–6.9)
Hospital-admitted cases admitted into the ICU, % (95% CrI) 25.6 (0.0–50.0) 25.5 (0.0–66.7) 29.3 (9.1–66.7) 22.5 (0.0–50.0)
Mortality rate of clinical cases, % (95% CrI) 3.2 (0.0–4.0) 2.9 (0.0–4.0) 1.6 (0.0–5.3) 1.4 (0.0–4.0)
Total cases (clinical and asymptomatic) per 100 000, median (95% CrI) 54 668 (24–57 177) 41 003 (35–42 579) 313 (56–22 533) 297 (28–990)
Total clinical cases per 100 000, median (95% CrI) 33 539 (20–35 083) 25 062 (23–26 158) 198 (37–13 722) 191 (18–625)
Total asymptomatic cases per 100 000, median (95% CrI) 21 082 (4–22 064) 15 955 (12–16 661) 118 (22–8811) 110 (8–365)
Total hospital-admitted cases per 100 000, median (95% CrI) 3652 (5–3979) 2490 (3–2835) 21 (4–1409) 19 (2–67)
Total cases admitted into the ICU per 100 000, median (95% CrI) 930 (0–996) 658 (0–727) 6 (1–348) 4 (0–17)
Total deaths per 100 000, median (95% CrI) 1088 (0–1203) 712 (0–790) 3 (0–252) 3 (0–12)
Infections acquired at school, % (95% CrI) 8.0 (0.0–9.2) 8.5 (0.0–9.4) 4.4 (1.2–10.0) 3.3 (0.0–12.3)
infections acquired at work, % (95% CrI) 14.4 (5.6–15.6) 13.6 (5.6–20.6) 13.4 (5.5–20.0) 13.9 (0.0–20.6)
Infections acquired in mixed-age venues, % (95% CrI) 25.6 (16.8–32.8) 24.2 (19.4–31.0) 23.3 (14.7–32.1) 23.6 (15.4–31.8)
Infections acquired in the household, % (95% CrI) 51.8 (51.0–64.0) 53.5 (52.9–72.2) 59.7 (51.1–64.5) 58.9 (51.5–68.2)
No. of infections acquired at school per 100 000, median (95% CrI) 4199 (0–5169) 3449 (0–3874) 12 (2–2114) 10 (0–40)
No. of infections acquired at work per 100 000, median (95% CrI) 7943 (1–8340) 5611 (2–5930) 43 (6–3008) 44 (0–124)
No. of infections acquired in mixed-age venue per 100 000, median (95% CrI) 14 190 (7–14 618) 9924 (7–10 450) 63 (10–5286) 68 (5–254)
No. of infections acquired at home per 100 000, median (95% CrI) 28 280 (10–29 259) 21 889 (17–22 795) 186 (32–12 074) 167 (15–580)

Note: CrI = credible interval, ICU = intensive care unit.

*

Median values from 50 realizations are presented in the table with 2.5th percentile and 97.5th percentile values representing the 95% CrI. Wide range in the 95% CrI indicates dichotomous outcomes across the model runs (i.e., epidemic v. epidemic elimination). The median values indicate the most likely outcome out of 50 realizations.