Table 4:
Summary of model outputs for the 4 scenarios studied with extended school closures*
| Variable | Minimal control | Maintained physical distancing | Enhanced case detection and contact tracing | Combined interventions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total attack rate, % (95% CrI) | 54.7 (0.02–57.2) | 41.0 (0.04–42.6) | 0.3 (0.05–22.5) | 0.3 (0.03–1.0) |
| Clinical attack rate, % (95% CrI) | 33.5 (0.02–35.1) | 25.1 (0.02–26.2) | 0.2 (0.04–13.7) | 0.19 (0.0–0.6) |
| Asymptomatic attack rate, % (95% CrI) | 21.1 (0.0–22.1) | 15.8 (0.01–16.7) | 0.1 (0.02–8.8) | 0.11 (0.01–0.4) |
| Proportion of asymptomatic cases of total cases, % (95% CrI) | 38.5 (16.7–42.6) | 38.7 (31.5–43.9) | 38.1 (28.6–43.5) | 37.3 (25.0–44.5) |
| Clinical cases that are mild (not admitted to hospital), % (95% CrI) | 89.0 (78.0–93.2) | 89.5 (80.0–91.4) | 89.8 (81.2–94.2) | 89.9 (81.2–94.7) |
| Clinical cases admitted to hospital (includes ICU), % (95% CrI) | 11.0 (6.8–22.0) | 10.5 (8.6–20.0) | 10.2 (5.8–18.8) | 10.1 (5.3–18.8) |
| Clinical cases admitted into the ICU, % (95% CrI) | 2.8 (0.0–6.2) | 2.7 (0.0–8.7) | 2.8 (0.9–12.5) | 2.4 (0.0–6.9) |
| Hospital-admitted cases admitted into the ICU, % (95% CrI) | 25.6 (0.0–50.0) | 25.5 (0.0–66.7) | 29.3 (9.1–66.7) | 22.5 (0.0–50.0) |
| Mortality rate of clinical cases, % (95% CrI) | 3.2 (0.0–4.0) | 2.9 (0.0–4.0) | 1.6 (0.0–5.3) | 1.4 (0.0–4.0) |
| Total cases (clinical and asymptomatic) per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 54 668 (24–57 177) | 41 003 (35–42 579) | 313 (56–22 533) | 297 (28–990) |
| Total clinical cases per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 33 539 (20–35 083) | 25 062 (23–26 158) | 198 (37–13 722) | 191 (18–625) |
| Total asymptomatic cases per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 21 082 (4–22 064) | 15 955 (12–16 661) | 118 (22–8811) | 110 (8–365) |
| Total hospital-admitted cases per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 3652 (5–3979) | 2490 (3–2835) | 21 (4–1409) | 19 (2–67) |
| Total cases admitted into the ICU per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 930 (0–996) | 658 (0–727) | 6 (1–348) | 4 (0–17) |
| Total deaths per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 1088 (0–1203) | 712 (0–790) | 3 (0–252) | 3 (0–12) |
| Infections acquired at school, % (95% CrI) | 8.0 (0.0–9.2) | 8.5 (0.0–9.4) | 4.4 (1.2–10.0) | 3.3 (0.0–12.3) |
| infections acquired at work, % (95% CrI) | 14.4 (5.6–15.6) | 13.6 (5.6–20.6) | 13.4 (5.5–20.0) | 13.9 (0.0–20.6) |
| Infections acquired in mixed-age venues, % (95% CrI) | 25.6 (16.8–32.8) | 24.2 (19.4–31.0) | 23.3 (14.7–32.1) | 23.6 (15.4–31.8) |
| Infections acquired in the household, % (95% CrI) | 51.8 (51.0–64.0) | 53.5 (52.9–72.2) | 59.7 (51.1–64.5) | 58.9 (51.5–68.2) |
| No. of infections acquired at school per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 4199 (0–5169) | 3449 (0–3874) | 12 (2–2114) | 10 (0–40) |
| No. of infections acquired at work per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 7943 (1–8340) | 5611 (2–5930) | 43 (6–3008) | 44 (0–124) |
| No. of infections acquired in mixed-age venue per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 14 190 (7–14 618) | 9924 (7–10 450) | 63 (10–5286) | 68 (5–254) |
| No. of infections acquired at home per 100 000, median (95% CrI) | 28 280 (10–29 259) | 21 889 (17–22 795) | 186 (32–12 074) | 167 (15–580) |
Note: CrI = credible interval, ICU = intensive care unit.
*
Median values from 50 realizations are presented in the table with 2.5th percentile and 97.5th percentile values representing the 95% CrI. Wide range in the 95% CrI indicates dichotomous outcomes across the model runs (i.e., epidemic v. epidemic elimination). The median values indicate the most likely outcome out of 50 realizations.