Epidemiological Correlates of PCR Cycle Threshold Values in the Detection of SARS-CoV-2

Abstract

Background

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection has principally been performed through the use of real-time reverse-transcription PCR (rRT-PCR) testing. Results of such tests can be reported as cycle threshold (Ct) values, which may provide semi-quantitative or indirect measurements of viral load. Previous reports have examined temporal trends in Ct values over the course of a SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Methods

Using testing data collected during a prospective household transmission investigation of outpatient and mild COVID-19 cases, we examined the relationship between Ct values of the viral RNA N1 target and demographic, clinical, and epidemiological characteristics collected through participant interviews and daily symptom diaries.

Results

We found Ct values are lowest (corresponding to higher viral RNA concentration) soon after symptom onset and are significantly correlated with time elapsed since onset (p<0.001); within 7 days after symptom onset, the median Ct value was 26.5 compared with a median Ct value of 35.0 occurring 21 days after onset. Ct values were significantly lower among participants under 18 years of age (p=0.01) and those reporting upper respiratory symptoms at the time of sample collection (p=0.001) and were higher among participants reporting no symptoms (p=0.05).

Conclusions

These results emphasize the importance of early testing for SARS-CoV-2 among individuals with symptoms of respiratory illness and allows cases to be identified and isolated when their viral shedding may be highest.