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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2026 Jun 1.
Published in final edited form as: For Ecol Manage. 2026 Jun;610:123674. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2026.123674

Fig. 3. Observed and modelled phenological changes.

Fig. 3

The model was fitted to an annual mean (green line) of observed single events (green dots) retrieved from the PEP725 database (Templ et al., 2018). Observed events display high interannual plasticity. Nevertheless, a clear trend to earlier onset and later end of the growing season is visible in the data (compare: Dolschak et al., 2019). Both climate change expansions point to an elongation of the growing season until the end of the century by about two weeks (compared to the baseline scenario), whereas the change is more pronounced at the beginning of the growing season. An elongation of the growing season might exacerbate the drought stress risk due to higher water consumption, mainly at the first half of the growing season.