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[Preprint]. 2021 Jan 29:arXiv:2003.05924v4. [Version 4]

Social confinement and mesoscopic localization of epidemics on networks

Guillaume St-Onge, Vincent Thibeault, Antoine Allard, Louis J Dubé, Laurent Hébert-Dufresne
PMCID: PMC7654871  PMID: 33173802

Abstract

Recommendations around epidemics tend to focus on individual behaviors, with much less efforts attempting to guide event cancellations and other collective behaviors since most models lack the higher-order structure necessary to describe large gatherings. Through a higher-order description of contagions on networks, we model the impact of a blanket cancellation of events larger than a critical size and find that epidemics can suddenly collapse when interventions operate over groups of individuals rather than at the level of individuals. We relate this phenomenon to the onset of mesoscopic localization, where contagions concentrate around dominant groups.

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The license terms selected by the author(s) for this preprint version do not permit archiving in PMC. The full text is available from the preprint server.

5 pages, 4 figures


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