Table 1.
Model Estimates and Cases Gained Through Serotype Replacement over 6 Years among Jewish Individuals in Israel (July 2009-June 2016), Ranked from Most to Least Cases Gained in All Age Categories. The results of the observed carriage at time 0, observed prevalence ratio (time6/time0), model prevalence ratio (time6/time0), and estimated cases gained through serotype replacement by age groups are shown for each of the serotypes used in the carriage model. Serotypes are ordered from most to least cases gained among all ages. Note that the total cases gained in the last row adds up to more than the number of cases above for each serotype, because the serotypes shown are only those used in the carriage model. The values for total cases gained also included calculations for additional serotypes (not shown) that were responsible for IPD, but were not present in carriage in children under 5 during this time period.
|
Observed |
Model |
Cases gained over study period, by age in years |
||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serotype | <5 carr. (t0) | PR (t6/t0) |
PR (t6/t0) |
<5 |
5–17 |
18–39 |
40–64 |
65+ |
All Ages |
|||||||
| Med. | CrI | Med. | CrI | Med. | CrI | Med. | CrI | Med. | CrI | Med. | CrI | Med. | CrI | |||
| 12F | 4 | 1.10 | 1.48 | 0.75, 2.98 | 58 | 0, 114 | 3 | 0, 6 | 8 | 0, 15 | 20 | 0, 39 | 22 | 0, 44 | 112 | 0, 219 |
| 8 | 0 | NA** | 1.96 | 0.69, 6.44 | 4 | 0, 7 | 3 | 0, 5 | 14 | 0, 23 | 29 | 0, 49 | 23 | 0, 38 | 72 | 2, 122 |
| 16F | 4 | 2.48 | 1.82 | 1.10, 3.29 | 6 | 1, 9 | 0 | 0, 0 | 3 | 1, 4 | 14 | 4, 24 | 27 | 7, 45 | 50 | 13, 82 |
| 33F | 0 | NA* | 1.78 | 0.90, 3.95 | 20 | 1, 35 | 0 | 0, 1 | 3 | 0, 5 | 5 | 1, 9 | 11 | 1, 19 | 39 | 4, 69 |
| 9N | 1 | 1.00 | 3.08 | 1.39, 8.09 | 5 | 2, 7 | 1 | 1, 2 | 4 | 2, 5 | 9 | 4, 12 | 15 | 6, 20 | 35 | 15, 46 |
| 7B | 0 | NA* | 4.98 | 2.13, 15.25 | 10 | 6, 11 | 0 | 0, 0 | 1 | 1, 1 | 6 | 4, 7 | 15 | 10, 18 | 32 | 21, 38 |
| 10A | 3 | 3.30 | 2.62 | 1.40, 5.28 | 10 | 4, 14 | 0 | 0, 0 | 2 | 1, 2 | 8 | 4, 11 | 11 | 5, 15 | 31 | 14, 42 |
| 22F | 2 | 3.03 | 1.50 | 0.79, 3.10 | 5 | 0, 11 | 1 | 0, 2 | 2 | 0, 3 | 9 | 0, 17 | 11 | 0, 22 | 28 | 1, 55 |
| 24F | 1 | 2.75 | 1.52 | 0.75, 3.32 | 7 | 0, 15 | 1 | 0, 2 | 2 | 0, 4 | 6 | 0, 12 | 12 | 0, 24 | 28 | 1, 56 |
| 17F | 1 | 6.05 | 4.32 | 1.84, 13.00 | 3 | 2, 4 | 0 | 0, 1 | 2 | 1, 3 | 5 | 3, 6 | 10 | 6, 13 | 21 | 12, 27 |
| 23B | 6 | 2.11 | 2.46 | 1.52, 4.19 | 4 | 2, 5 | 2 | 1, 2 | 0 | 0, 1 | 4 | 2, 5 | 12 | 7, 15 | 21 | 12, 28 |
| 15A | 9 | 0.98 | 1.28 | 0.82, 2.06 | 3 | 0, 8 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 0 | 4 | 0, 9 | 13 | 0, 28 | 21 | 0, 46 |
| 31 | 4 | 1.79 | 2.21 | 1.10, 4.62 | 1 | 0, 1 | 1 | 0, 1 | 1 | 0, 2 | 6 | 1, 8 | 12 | 3, 19 | 21 | 4, 31 |
| 11A | 7 | 1.81 | 1.90 | 1.17, 3.22 | 2 | 0, 3 | 1 | 0, 1 | 2 | 1, 4 | 7 | 2, 10 | 8 | 2, 12 | 19 | 6, 29 |
| 35B | 6 | 2.11 | 2.03 | 1.23, 3.50 | 2 | 1, 3 | 0 | 0, 0 | 1 | 0, 1 | 3 | 1, 5 | 11 | 4, 16 | 17 | 6, 25 |
| 15BC | 21 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 0.81, 1.66 | 8 | 0, 20 | 0 | 0, 0 | 1 | 0, 2 | 3 | 0, 7 | 4 | 0, 10 | 16 | 0, 39 |
| 10B | 10 | 1.05 | 1.33 | 0.76, 2.27 | 5 | 0, 10 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 1 | 1 | 0, 2 | 6 | 0, 13 | 12 | 0, 27 |
| 2 | 1 | 0.55 | 1.32 | 0.35, 4.71 | 3 | 0, 8 | 2 | 0, 6 | 2 | 0, 6 | 3 | 0, 11 | 1 | 0, 3 | 11 | 0, 34 |
| 23A | 7 | 1.18 | 1.55 | 0.97, 2.61 | 1 | 0, 2 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 1 | 4 | 0, 7 | 5 | 0, 8 | 10 | 1, 17 |
| 34 | 2 | 1.38 | 1.36 | 0.69, 2.80 | 1 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 1 | 1 | 0, 2 | 6 | 0, 13 | 7 | 0, 17 |
| 27 | 0 | NA* | 1.83 | 0.52, 7.33 | 6 | 0, 12 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 6 | 0, 12 |
| 38 | 5 | 0.55 | 0.78 | 0.38, 1.56 | 1 | 0, 4 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 1 | 0, 4 | 3 | 0, 10 | 5 | 0, 17 |
| 13 | 1 | 0.55 | 1.54 | 0.62, 4.00 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 0 | 2 | 0, 4 | 2 | 0, 5 | 5 | 0, 10 |
| 21 | 4 | 2.20 | 2.22 | 1.25, 4.20 | 3 | 1, 5 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 3 | 1, 5 |
| 6C | 6 | 0.73 | 0.58 | 0.32, 1.09 | 1 | 0, 2 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 2 | 2 | 0, 5 | 3 | 0, 9 |
| 20 | 0 | NA* | 1.99 | 0.62, 7.66 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 1 | 0, 1 | 1 | 0, 1 | 2 | 0, 3 | 3 | 0, 5 |
| 29 | 0 | NA* | 1.60 | 0.40, 6.86 | 1 | 0, 3 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 1 | 1 | 0, 3 |
| 35F | 2 | 0.28 | 0.83 | 0.34, 1.90 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 1 | 1 | 0, 5 | 1 | 0, 8 |
| 9A | 0 | NA** | 1.35 | 0.24, 6.93 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 1 | 1 | 0, 3 |
| 24B | 0 | NA** | 1.34 | 0.23, 6.87 | 1 | 0, 2 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 0 | 1 | 0, 3 |
| 18A | 0 | NA** | 1.35 | 0.23, 6.77 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 1 | 0, 2 | 0 | 0, 1 | 1 | 0, 3 |
| 25A | 0 | NA** | 1.35 | 0.24, 6.75 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 1 | 1 | 0, 2 |
| 10F | 0 | NA** | 1.35 | 0.24, 6.91 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 1 | 1 | 0, 2 |
| 33A | 0 | NA** | 1.29 | 0.40, 4.06 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 1 |
| 19B | 1 | 4.40 | 1.63 | 0.67, 4.23 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 1 |
| 6D | 0 | NA** | 1.36 | 0.36, 4.87 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 1 |
| 9L | 0 | NA** | 1.35 | 0.23, 7.02 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 1 |
| 37 | 1 | 0.00 | 1.13 | 0.25, 4.35 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 2 |
| 28A | 0 | NA** | 1.35 | 0.24, 6.83 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 1 |
| 11C | 0 | NA** | 1.34 | 0.23, 6.88 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 1 |
| 35A | 0 | NA* | 1.16 | 0.32, 3.77 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 1 | 0 | 0, 1 |
| 10C | 0 | NA** | 1.34 | 0.24, 6.90 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 |
| 11B | 0 | NA** | 1.34 | 0.24, 6.85 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 |
| 12A | 0 | NA** | 1.60 | 0.40, 6.97 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 |
| 15F | 0 | NA** | 1.35 | 0.24, 7.00 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 |
| 19C | 0 | NA** | 1.34 | 0.24, 6.88 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 |
| 24A | 0 | NA** | 1.17 | 0.26, 4.59 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 |
| 33B | 0 | NA** | 1.35 | 0.24, 6.87 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 |
| 33D | 0 | NA** | 1.35 | 0.24, 6.84 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 |
| 35C | 0 | NA** | 1.34 | 0.24, 6.89 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 |
| 42 | 0 | NA** | 1.34 | 0.24, 6.86 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 |
| 46 | 0 | NA** | 1.36 | 0.24, 6.93 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 |
| 7A | 0 | NA** | 1.34 | 0.23, 6.84 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 |
| 7C | 0 | NA** | 1.42 | 0.47, 4.39 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 | 0 | 0, 0 |
| All | 167 | 88, 245 | 17 | 10, 26 | 49 | 29, 70 | 149 | 94, 203 | 242 | 162, 320 | 624 | 397, 850 | ||||
carr. = carriage; CrI = 95% credible interval; med. = median; PR = prevalence ratio.
a * Indicates that the prevalence at Time 0 was 0, and hence the observed prevalence ratio could not be estimated for that serotype. In instances where the prevalence at Time 6 was also 0, there is an additional asterisk (**).
b Note that the total cases gained in the last row adds up to more than the number of cases above for each serotype, because the serotypes shown are only those used in the carriage model. The values for total cases gained also included calculations for additional serotypes (not shown) that were responsible for IPD, but were not present in carriage in children under 5 during this time period.