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Oxford University Press - PMC COVID-19 Collection logoLink to Oxford University Press - PMC COVID-19 Collection
. 2020 Oct 12:ciaa1547. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1547

The potential epidemiological impact of COVID-19 on the HIV/AIDS epidemic and the cost-effectiveness of linked, opt-out HIV testing: A modeling study in six US cities

Xiao Zang 1, Emanuel Krebs 2, Siyuan Chen 3, Micah Piske 2, Wendy S Armstrong 4, Czarina N Behrends 5, Carlos Del Rio 4, Daniel J Feaster 6, Brandon D L Marshall 1, Shruti H Mehta 7, Jonathan Mermin 8, Lisa R Metsch 9, Bruce R Schackman 5, Steffanie A Strathdee 10, Bohdan Nosyk, on behalf of the Localized HIV Modeling Study Group2,3,
PMCID: PMC7665350  PMID: 33045723

Abstract

Background

Widespread viral and serological testing for SARS-CoV-2 may present a unique opportunity to also test for HIV infection. We estimated the potential impact of adding linked, opt-out HIV testing alongside SARS-CoV-2 testing on HIV incidence and the cost-effectiveness of this strategy in six US cities.

Methods

Using a previously-calibrated dynamic HIV transmission model, we constructed three sets of scenarios for each city: (1) sustained current levels of HIV-related treatment and prevention services (status quo); (2) temporary disruptions in health services and changes in sexual and injection risk behaviours at discrete levels between 0%-50%; and (3) linked HIV and SARS-CoV-2 testing offered to 10%-90% of the adult population in addition to scenario (2). We estimated cumulative HIV infections between 2020-2025 and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of linked HIV testing over 20 years.

Results

In the absence of linked, opt-out HIV testing, we estimated a total of 16.5% decrease in HIV infections between 2020-2025 in the best-case scenario (50% reduction in risk behaviours and no service disruptions), and 9.0% increase in the worst-case scenario (no behavioural change and 50% reduction in service access). We estimated that HIV testing (offered at 10%-90% levels) could avert a total of 576-7,225 (1.6%-17.2%) new infections. The intervention would require an initial investment of $20.6M-$220.7M across cities; however, the intervention would ultimately result in savings in health care costs in each city.

Conclusions

A campaign in which HIV testing is linked with SARS-CoV-2 testing could substantially reduce HIV incidence and reduce direct and indirect health care costs attributable to HIV.

Keywords: HIV, COVID-19, linked opt-out HIV testing, cost-effectiveness, dynamic HIV transmission model


Articles from Clinical Infectious Diseases: An Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America are provided here courtesy of Oxford University Press

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