Inter-Region Transfers for Pandemic Surges

Abstract

Background

Hospital inpatient and intensive care unit (ICU) bed shortfalls may arise due to regional surges in volume. We sought to determine how inter-region transfers could alleviate bed shortfalls during a pandemic.

Methods

We used estimates of past and projected inpatient and ICU cases of COVID-19 from February 4, 2020 to October 1, 2020. For regions with bed shortfalls (where the number of patients exceeded bed capacity), transfers to the nearest region with unused beds were simulated using an algorithm that minimized total inter-region transfer distances across the U.S. Model scenarios used a range of predicted COVID-19 volumes (lower, mean, and upper bounds) and non-COVID-19 volumes (20%, 50%, or 80% of baseline hospital volumes). Scenarios were created for each day of data, and worst-case scenarios were created treating all regions’ peak volumes as simultaneous. Mean per-patient transfer distances were calculated by scenario.

Results

For the worst-case scenarios, national bed shortfalls ranged from 669 to 58,562 inpatient beds and 3,208 to 31,190 ICU beds, depending on model volume parameters. Mean transfer distances to alleviate daily bed shortfalls ranged from 23 to 352 miles for inpatient and 28 to 423 miles for ICU patients, depending on volume. Under all worst-case scenarios except the highest-volume ICU scenario, inter-regional transfers could fully resolve bed shortfalls. To do so, mean transfer distances would be 24 to 405 miles for inpatients and 73 to 476 miles for ICU patients.

Conclusions

Inter-region transfers could mitigate regional bed shortfalls during pandemic hospital surges.