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Table 1. Parameter values for the transmission model with and without awareness.
Parameters | Value* | Source | |
---|---|---|---|
Epidemiological parameters | |||
Basic reproduction number | R0 | 2.5 (2–3) | Li and colleagues [5], Park and colleagues [30], sensitivity analyses |
Probability of transmission per contact with IS | ε | 0.048 | From R0 = β[pσ/γM+(1−p)/ν] |
Transmission rate of infection via contact with IS | β | 0.66 per day | β = cε |
Average contact rate (unique persons) | c | 13.85 persons per day | Mossong and colleagues [31] |
Relative infectivity of infectious with mild disease (IM) | σ | 50% (25%–75%) | Assumed, see, e.g., Liu and colleagues [29], sensitivity analyses |
Proportion of infectious with mild disease (IM) | p | 82% (82%–90%) | Wu and colleagues [32], Anderson and colleagues [20], sensitivity analyses |
Delay between infection and onset of infectiousness (latent period) | 1/α | 4 days | Shorter than incubation period [5, 30, 33] |
Delay from onset of infectiousness to diagnosis for IS | 1/ν | 5 (3–7) days | Li and colleagues [5], sensitivity analyses |
Recovery period of infectious with mild disease (IM) | 1/γM | 7 (5–9) days | Li Xingwang†, sensitivity analyses |
Delay from diagnosis to recovery for unaware diagnosed (ID) | 1/γS | 14 days | WHO [34] |
Relative infectivity of isolated (ID) | 0% | Assuming perfect isolation | |
Case fatality rate of unaware diagnosed (ID) | f | 1.6% | Althaus and colleagues [35] Park and colleagues [30] |
Disease-associated death rate of unaware diagnosed (ID) | η | 0.0011 per day | η = γSf/(1−f) |
Awareness parameters | |||
Rate of awareness spread (slow, fast and range) | δ | 5×10−5, 1 (10−6 − 1) per year | Assumed, sensitivity analyses |
Relative susceptibility to awareness acquisition for S, E, IM, and RM | k | 50% (0%–100%) | Assumed, sensitivity analyses |
Duration of awareness for Sa, Ea, , and | 1/μ | 30 (7–365) days | Assumed, sensitivity analyses |
Duration of awareness for | 1/μS | 60 (7–365) days | Longer than 1/μ, sensitivity analyses |
Delay from onset of infectiousness to diagnosis for | 1/νa | 3 (1–5) days | Shorter than 1/ν, sensitivity analyses |
Delay from diagnosis to recovery of aware diagnosed () | 12 days | Shorter than 1/γS | |
Case fatality rate of aware diagnosed () | fa | 1% | Smaller than f |
Disease-associated death rate of aware diagnosed () | ηa | 0.0008 per day | |
Prevention measure parameters | |||
Efficacy of mask-wearing (reduction in infectivity) | 0%–100% | Varied | |
Efficacy of handwashing (reduction in susceptibility) | 0%–100% | Varied | |
Efficacy of self-imposed contact rate reduction | 0%–100% | Varied | |
Efficacy of government-imposed contact rate reduction | 0%–100% | Varied | |
Duration of government-imposed social distancing | 3 (1–13) months | Assumed, sensitivity analyses | |
Threshold for initiation of government-imposed social distancing | 10 (1–1,000) diagnoses | Assumed, sensitivity analyses |
*Mean or median values were used from literature; range was used in the sensitivity analyses.
†Expert at China's National Health Commission.
Reference
- 1.Teslya A, Pham TM, Godijk NG, Kretzschmar ME, Bootsma MCJ, Rozhnova G (2020) Impact of self-imposed prevention measures and short-term government-imposed social distancing on mitigating and delaying a COVID-19 epidemic: A modelling study. PLoS Med 17(7): e1003166 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003166 [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]