Fig. 2.

Uncertainty quantification for the different observable combinations. (A–C) Parameter confidence/credibility intervals obtained using profile calculation and MCMC samples. The gray lines indicate the employed parameter boundaries. (D–F) Posterior of state variables obtained by MCMC sampling. Medians (line) and 99% confidence (dashed lines) / credibility intervals (area) are indicated. The upper bound for the inverse of the rate constants was set to 182 days and for the initial conditions to 1000 individuals.